35854 replies to this topic

[Ninja]

Sp500 closed Thurs on its 50dma at 2355... I'd she can't hold that today, just under 100 points drop to the first fib at 2266

[pointbreak]

Weekly candles on alsi indicating downward direction...
Plan is to short any rally for now...
No buying... cash or short

Almost strange, how the strengthening zar has no influence for the moment?

[Ninja]

Weekly candles on alsi indicating downward direction...
Plan is to short any rally for now...
No buying... cash or short

[Mostlya]

Naspers seems to be making a double top on the weekly charts....

Biliton BHP a head and shoulders...

British American Tobacco hitting resistance ceiling after making a triple top a few months ago...

CFR just going down last 2 weeks...

They are about the biggest shares on TOP40

 

The bears are encouraged by the strengthening ZAR it seems...

But at what level if it weakens does a weaker Rand tempt the buyers????

I think there will come a time when these big players you've listed lose a sufficient amount of market value to have less influence on the overall index. Even if the buyers come in their influence will be lower. Essentially what I'm saying is if the Rand continues to strengthen it will be a long time until you see these shares having any positive effect on the JSE. The index might find itself having more of a local flavour to it but not until it's taken out the rand hedge premium. I think we all know that a more locally driven stock market will certainly mean the JSE struggles to move higher.

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Rand at 10 again at some point even if the world moves into major panic mode.

 

The market is very strange at the moment. There is an undercurrent of panic mixed in with this blind need to buy every dip in fear of missing out. Something is going to break in a big way. It is very evident in Oil where the oversupply is just crushing it's upward movement but there is still faith that the world economy is doing fantastically and there's an amazing opportunity to buy Oil 'cheap'.

[Halfday]

Tencent new ATH. It's starting to get into the blow-off top zone

Naspers seems to be making a double top on the weekly charts....

Biliton BHP a head and shoulders...

British American Tobacco hitting resistance ceiling after making a triple top a few months ago...

CFR just going down last 2 weeks...

They are about the biggest shares on TOP40

 

The bears are encouraged by the strengthening ZAR it seems...

But at what level if it weakens does a weaker Rand tempt the buyers????

[Mostlya]

Tencent new ATH. It's starting to get into the blow-off top zone

[pointbreak]

Not sure any of that type of thinking helps with actually making money in trading though. Probably not

 

I think that thinking helps to create the correct background and then timing obviously brings home the bacon. I think if you don't see the elephant in the room you can go hopelessly wrong and then no amount of timing will save you.

I absolutely agree, what goes up unjustly must come down (normally rather fast). No doubt the central authorities (like the dear FED) are running out of ideas to prop the market. I also think china will be the next shoe to drop. crazy property markets always makes good crisis.

To me, these unavoidable facts (as you very well stated them) definitely creates market ceilings, and that brings shorting in as a very feasible trading strategy. still need good timing and guidance though.

i guess it comes down to the saying:" bears take the elevator, while bulls take the stairs". so the window for shorts are relative smaller.

Edited by pointbreak, 18 April 2017 - 04:26 PM.

[Mostlya]

I've never been a believer in the notion that the stock market must go up simply because there is nowhere better to go. Valuations will always matter regardless of the level of interest rates because over the longer-term they are a reflection economic performance. To your point once you consider where discount factors should be if they weren't artificially suppressed you start to understand exactly how undervalued the PE ratios are. Imagine if earnings could've followed a normalized path over the last 8 years?

 

In my opinion we're starting to reach the top of the business cycle and while the hardened economist doesn't believe it because interest rates haven't moved upwards they're simply missing the point that all the easy monetary policy has dragged forward all potential economic performance to present day.

 

This time however monetary policy cannot save the system as interest rates are still virtually zero and QE will simply not have the same effect emotionally as it has in a sense failed to spur the kind of magical recovery it was meant to. In fact it's slowed innovation and natural economic efficiencies significantly by allowing poorly functioning companies to dominate market share while keeping out the smaller innovative ones.

 

There's always fiscal policy but with notions such as the debt ceiling and an insane credit bubble in China who much spending can actually be done?

 

In my view once this market begins to panic it could set off one of the worst scrambles for safety in the history of the modern markets. Negative yields all around. Except for South African of course which will still find a way to generate massive amounts of inflation in spite of a massively deflationary world-wide environment.

Not sure any of that type of thinking helps with actually making money in trading though. Probably not

[Mostlya]

I honestly think, there is just so few good places for money to go these days... that investors are temporarily content with average top40 PE's of 20 and higher. it is noteworthy that that came down from 24.4 on 16 jan 17 to 20.3 currently.

So if you look at the price of bonds worldwide you can put a PE of 50+ to them (should you go inverse). So with manufacturing (and services to a degree) being over-capacitated, I can see why the elites (mostly the fed bankers) don't know where to put all these printed notes :-)

IMO the high boarses everywhere reflects a high degree of inflation that simply is not reflected in many products; mainly due to lower general quality of products and services ( a deliberate effort to keep it affordable).

Quantitive easing, is without a doubt a tax on the consumer, and thus the general person. Better than looking at the real inflation rate, rather look at the amount of affordability issues these days, not to speak of how hard it is to buy anything that does not break down in less than 6 months.

There is many a clever way to hide inflation and for the Elites to try and protect their wealth.

I've never been a believer in the notion that the stock market must go up simply because there is nowhere better to go. Valuations will always matter regardless of the level of interest rates because over the longer-term they are a reflection economic performance. To your point once you consider where discount factors should be if they weren't artificially suppressed you start to understand exactly how undervalued the PE ratios are. Imagine if earnings could've followed a normalized path over the last 8 years?

 

In my opinion we're starting to reach the top of the business cycle and while the hardened economist doesn't believe it because interest rates haven't moved upwards they're simply missing the point that all the easy monetary policy has dragged forward all potential economic performance to present day.

 

This time however monetary policy cannot save the system as interest rates are still virtually zero and QE will simply not have the same effect emotionally as it has in a sense failed to spur the kind of magical recovery it was meant to. In fact it's slowed innovation and natural economic efficiencies significantly by allowing poorly functioning companies to dominate market share while keeping out the smaller innovative ones.

 

There's always fiscal policy but with notions such as the debt ceiling and an insane credit bubble in China who much spending can actually be done?

 

In my view once this market begins to panic it could set off one of the worst scrambles for safety in the history of the modern markets. Negative yields all around. Except for South African of course which will still find a way to generate massive amounts of inflation in spite of a massively deflationary world-wide environment.

[pointbreak]

Pulling the ALSI down to the mythical 200 weekly MA. Around that 43 000 level. Feels like a big ask in a market that can't price in risks but we shall see. I'm certainly still targeting it.

I honestly think, there is just so few good places for money to go these days... that investors are temporarily content with average top40 PE's of 20 and higher. it is noteworthy that that came down from 24.4 on 16 jan 17 to 20.3 currently.

So if you look at the price of bonds worldwide you can put a PE of 50+ to them (should you go inverse). So with manufacturing (and services to a degree) being over-capacitated, I can see why the elites (mostly the fed bankers) don't know where to put all these printed notes :-)

IMO the high boarses everywhere reflects a high degree of inflation that simply is not reflected in many products; mainly due to lower general quality of products and services ( a deliberate effort to keep it affordable).

Quantitive easing, is without a doubt a tax on the consumer, and thus the general person. Better than looking at the real inflation rate, rather look at the amount of affordability issues these days, not to speak of how hard it is to buy anything that does not break down in less than 6 months.

There is many a clever way to hide inflation and for the Elites to try and protect their wealth.

Edited by pointbreak, 18 April 2017 - 01:29 PM.

[Mostlya]

HI. by my calculations 2000-4000. not all in a row though. maybe take some profit of after 800 and then get back in again on first decent bump.

47000 on alsi june definitely sounds like a good business area for shorts.

Pulling the ALSI down to the mythical 200 weekly MA. Around that 43 000 level. Feels like a big ask in a market that can't price in risks but we shall see. I'm certainly still targeting it.

[pointbreak]

Not to forget the overbought rand hedges like richemont and the likes

Has to be worth a couple of thousand points down on alsi... no?

HI. by my calculations 2000-4000. not all in a row though. maybe take some profit of after 800 and then get back in again on first decent bump.

47000 on alsi june definitely sounds like a good business area for shorts.

Edited by pointbreak, 18 April 2017 - 11:56 AM.

[Ninja]

Not to forget the overbought rand hedges like richemont and the likes

Has to be worth a couple of thousand points down on alsi... no?

[Ninja]

Morning guys.... targets for alsi to downside?
Assuming Naspers drops the R400 it tacked on recently and that the double top is in place for naspers?

And the h&s on most commodities shares??

[Ninja]

Lol... all the hype about missile n nuclear north korea special event today.. guess what... they cut the red ribbon and officially opened a new street😂😂😂😂

[Mostlya]

If the Rand weakens I'd say the majority of the market will buy. They'd still be viewing the Rand as going to 15. If it doesn't and it continues to hold strength and drift down I can definitely see some worry coming in about its trajectory. Especially considering the long weekend and the trigger happy North Koreans. Not to say they'll actually do anything but who would want to hold anything over a long weekend in this environment.

 

I'm presuming the reason we aren't down today is because of the relief in the SA financial and banking sector and the flight into Gold shares?

Keep an eye on the US treasury yields. Despite what the news media may say the Rand strength will be directly correlated to its weakness. The treasury market isn't buying the recovery and reflation trade at all and the smart money is in a desperate search for yield in emerging markets.

[Mostlya]

So are we going up today??

If the Rand weakens I'd say the majority of the market will buy. They'd still be viewing the Rand as going to 15. If it doesn't and it continues to hold strength and drift down I can definitely see some worry coming in about its trajectory. Especially considering the long weekend and the trigger happy North Koreans. Not to say they'll actually do anything but who would want to hold anything over a long weekend in this environment.

 

I'm presuming the reason we aren't down today is because of the relief in the SA financial and banking sector and the flight into Gold shares?

[Rulz3]

So are we going up today??

[Mostlya]

Right on cue it's time to ramp up Hong Kong and Tencent.

[pointbreak]

I'm very much on the more side of that trade. Historically an RSI reading over 70 on the daily combined with the top BB being hit generally leads to anything between a 5%-10% in the following few months. That hammer nestling along with nothing but green bars is indeed very ominous.

Indeed, i am tempted to take some more shorts before the close... really have to try and sit on my hands