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ALSI Trades


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#22601 Argento

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 03:58 PM

everyone, including me, seems to have targets to 40800/900 on T40F's - also coincide w S&P target of 18013/22 ish

--but normally feb should be last new high before market plays Lemming - so what is view on past 40900 and rather 42000ish.??

how much higher than 40900 must it go before give up those new shorts from 40900 ( many think tMr Market may well try this)-- well it is something to ponder. any comments?

Hi O,

 

Just my 2c but I think the TOP40 has seen its high for the year, if you look at the weekly MACD the major correction for 2014 has kicked off, but as we know mr market does not fall in a straight line!

 

But...if you look at history our markets have the tendancy to top or bottom before the US, they had a high momentum top and bullphases do not end like that, so very possible the US is going for a new high in March/April, where as we will only see the 42000 level again...then the mini bearmarket will resume!

 

More short term I am ready with my shorts as this wave B leg up is almost at its target (Monday?) before the red hanger sale starts again and mark the low of this phase by next week...!

 

A


Edited by Argento, 07 February 2014 - 04:00 PM.

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#22602 JBlack

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 03:48 PM

Talk about a violent reaction to bad NFP data..... Woah!

Just shows you, doesn't matter how sound your method and strategy is, if you have an open position you are at risk....


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#22603 JBlack

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 03:41 PM

Talk about a violent reaction to bad NFP data..... Woah!


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#22604 Redeemer

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 02:54 PM

Big magnet at 40680 :unsure:


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#22605 OceanWalz

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 02:20 PM

everyone, including me, seems to have targets to 40800/900 on T40F's - also coincide w S&P target of 18013/22 ish

--but normally feb should be last new high before market plays Lemming - so what is view on past 40900 and rather 42000ish.??

how much higher than 40900 must it go before give up those new shorts from 40900 ( many think tMr Market may well try this)-- well it is something to ponder. any comments?


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#22606 K~~

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 01:29 PM

K

Do you factor in the probability of either side, ie should you believe the probability of the target price being realized is much higher than a return move to the support....do you still not take the trade?

Yes, I do. For instance, I think the probability of going higher now is better than to drop.

 

But for me to take a long I need her to drop to say 40400, and show evidence of reversal (use your favourite indicators here on lower timeframes). 

 

Now my stop will be 40200 and target 40900. R:R 200:500 = 1:2.5

 

Great trade right there.

 

If this does not happen, I sit out! Risk of account emptying is too great.

 

Hope this helps.

 

K


Edited by K~~, 07 February 2014 - 01:33 PM.

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#22607 Redeemer

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 01:24 PM

Agreed K~~. I'm also teaching myself to do this kind of math before every trade. Once I'm happy with the set-up (charts etc) and the R:R, I then enter trade and sit tight. And on top of it all, what gives lots of peace, is a position size that mirrors size of account. It just makes it easy to stick to your trading rules.

 

 

Let's take the current position: 40600

 

Upside target: 40900

Downside support 40200.

 

For a long: That's 400:300 R:R. (1.3:1) - I need it to be at least 1:2

 

Not good enough for me. (For ANY position size).

 

So I'm sitting out.

 

K


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#22608 Plasma

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 01:20 PM

K

Do you factor in the probability of either side, ie should you believe the probability of the target price being realized is much higher than a return move to the support....do you still not take the trade?
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#22609 Plasma

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 01:17 PM

Thanks guys for the responses...appreciate all the perspectives. Guess I feel a bit sorry for myself. Had a high degree of confidence in the setup....a number of parameters came together nicely .. But for some reasons the opportunity passed me by. Come down to having been away from the screen for a few minutes, given other factors. Must eventually learn something from my mistakes.
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#22610 K~~

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 01:04 PM

Hi Plasma

 

Please see trail of posts below vis-a-vis my long. Yes, I had to hang on through that scary drop. And I agree fully with K~~ here, medium term plays seem to be safer these days (unless you're a pro scalper like Jacks). Remember, prior to these longs 2 days ago, I had a short that I hung onto for about 4 days to bag 900+ pips (K~~ did 1000+ in the same period).

Also, I don't find sense in a 500 pip SL, if I'm expecting a move of less than 500pips...

And by the way, I have a small account ...so I use the smaller contracts. Size doesn't matter ;)

Let's take the current position: 40600

 

Upside target: 40900

Downside support 40200.

 

For a long: That's 400:300 R:R. (1.3:1) - I need it to be at least 1:2

 

Not good enough for me. (For ANY position size).

 

So I'm sitting out.

 

K


Edited by K~~, 07 February 2014 - 01:06 PM.

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#22611 Redeemer

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 12:49 PM

Hi Plasma

 

Please see trail of posts below vis-a-vis my long. Yes, I had to hang on through that scary drop. And I agree fully with K~~ here, medium term plays seem to be safer these days (unless you're a pro scalper like Jacks). Remember, prior to these longs 2 days ago, I had a short that I hung onto for about 4 days to bag 900+ pips (K~~ did 1000+ in the same period).

Also, I don't find sense in a 500 pip SL, if I'm expecting a move of less than 500pips...

And by the way, I have a small account ...so I use the smaller contracts. Size doesn't matter ;)

 

Long @40037 (IG). The bull is about to breathe again!

 

 

REdeemer if 40000 breaks i hope you have a stop loss in place.

 

 

hanging on for dear life :(

SL still intact though.

 

 

S/L for any longs need to be at 39600. Volatility is more than likely to kill stops higher than that...

 

If 39600 goes, look out below!

 

K

 

 

Thanks K~~

I expect a bounce of a 1000 pips or more in the coming days...hence I got an SL of 500 (at 39500) - for an R:R of 1:2.

However, if she breaks 39600, I'll consider a full hedge and remove the SL (won't wait for her to hit 39500).

 

 

That's about right, R. Got a target of 40900 or so for my long @828.

 

Let's see where she goes. There's a lot of longs out there, so don't expect her to move too fast (no good short squeeze...)

 

K


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#22612 K~~

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 12:03 PM

To those who made these 100s of pips since yesterday morning....

If you went long around or before 0900 yesterday morning....did you comfortably sit through that dip from 0930 to 1100?? Reason for the question is your psychological state during that period...given the fact that it was a 400 point drop...or what? Did some have a 500 point SL range? In which case it would not have mattered. Just wondering ....trying to perhaps build up a longer term perspective when there appears to be a good probability of something materializing and have to deal wide such wild things. Suppose it has got to do something with the account size as well.

Hi P

 

My trades are mostly medium term. Daily movements are just too unpredictable, and mostly turns out to be luck (or lack thereof).

 

Rather wait for a sure setup, and then place your stops a reasonable away from support, to avoid being flushed out.

 

I've said it here and I'll say it again: Account SIZE has nothing to do with it. What matters is CORRECT POSITION SIZE!!! That way if it goes against you, your account stays intact. 

 

You might get lucky with one massive trade, but then you'll want to do it again and get wiped.

 

Prosperous trading!

 


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#22613 Lekkerry

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 11:53 AM

Plasma, that drop knocked my trade out. But I climbed back in later at a better level than the previous trade, if I recall correctly. My reasoning was that the 1d was telling, so that dip was just that,a  dip in the grander scheme. So even though my trade was stopped out, I "knew" the correct direction was up. From an intraday perspective, I doubt that dropped was foreseen. Trading is about your net position: to have an improved net position end of day / week or month.

 

Trading is like water sports, you need to constantly adjust your grip / seat / planing. At times you do hit a wave that knocks you off course, but then need to readjust. Nothing new I guess.

 

To those who made these 100s of pips since yesterday morning....

If you went long around or before 0900 yesterday morning....did you comfortably sit through that dip from 0930 to 1100?? Reason for the question is your psychological state during that period...given the fact that it was a 400 point drop...or what? Did some have a 500 point SL range? In which case it would not have mattered. Just wondering ....trying to perhaps build up a longer term perspective when there appears to be a good probability of something materializing and have to deal wide such wild things. Suppose it has got to do something with the account size as well.


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#22614 JJBen

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 11:35 AM

To those who made these 100s of pips since yesterday morning....

If you went long around or before 0900 yesterday morning....did you comfortably sit through that dip from 0930 to 1100?? Reason for the question is your psychological state during that period...given the fact that it was a 400 point drop...or what? Did some have a 500 point SL range? In which case it would not have mattered. Just wondering ....trying to perhaps build up a longer term perspective when there appears to be a good probability of something materializing and have to deal wide such wild things. Suppose it has got to do something with the account size as well.

Plasma

 

Garth M from Traders Corner had a med-term short from 42100 to 39600 TP, 42800 SL. The short was closed around 40 000.

So the RR was 3.5:1. To handle a 700 point SL range requires a medium term outlook. I honestly don't know how day traders can have a 300-400 point SL, when the Average True Range is "only" 500 points! To justify a RR of 2:1 you need an upday of at least 600-800 points. Not on if you use daily ATR as guideline.

 

But each to his own. No rights or wrongs, trade your own system.


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#22615 Plasma

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 11:15 AM

To those who made these 100s of pips since yesterday morning....

If you went long around or before 0900 yesterday morning....did you comfortably sit through that dip from 0930 to 1100?? Reason for the question is your psychological state during that period...given the fact that it was a 400 point drop...or what? Did some have a 500 point SL range? In which case it would not have mattered. Just wondering ....trying to perhaps build up a longer term perspective when there appears to be a good probability of something materializing and have to deal wide such wild things. Suppose it has got to do something with the account size as well.
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#22616 Redeemer

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 09:42 AM

Nice one K~~. Closed 80% of mine for about 600 points. Will let the rest run for a while.

 

Long @40037 (IG). The bull is about to breathe again!


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#22617 K~~

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 09:20 AM

That's about right, R. Got a target of 40900 or so for my long @828.

 

Let's see where she goes. There's a lot of longs out there, so don't expect her to move too fast (no good short squeeze...)

 

K

Closed long from 39828  at 40650. Not going to wait for the final push.

 

No open positions ATM. Will see where she goes.

 

I'll short when she reaches 40900, with a stop at 41300.

 

K


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#22618 AJS

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 09:11 AM

The 1d with BBand, EMA and RSI indicators did not fail. Targets reached.

 

Nice one, well done!


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#22619 Lekkerry

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 08:55 AM

The 1d with BBand, EMA and RSI indicators did not fail. Targets reached.

 

By no means a tech analysis or a rigid pattern, but the 1d is playing a familiar game:

 

Red candle touching BBLower, then a possible turn-around as the follow-on candle (today's) doesn't decent lower than the last red candle for one or two days then a lekker upswing. My initial target will be the EMA(10) line (J200 @ 40563), after-which I will reassess exit target for long(s).


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#22620 davidp13

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 07:46 AM

for those of you interested - trend is still in play as it held...lets see what 20ema holds. if it does maybe FIB ret to 41300.


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