35854 replies to this topic

[Sunesis]

Flashback: Remember the stunt the DOW pulled the last time when Fed announced taper?!

If that happens again we could be ralling 3-5%, but shorts will still be around.

Then for sure the next drop will be more in % terms, probably end of March

[Sunesis]

The only reason i sneaked a long on Nasdaq is because of Facebook,Google and Amazon reporting.

 

Just incase the FED  takes the market up, it will be good for Nasdaq if those companies report good numbers.

[AJS]

Flashback: Remember the stunt the DOW pulled the last time when Fed announced taper?!

[Sunesis]

A 15% correction for us is not that bad. Sets us up nicely for 50000!

15% correction will cause a very bullish platform.

That will be the start of a secular bull market.

 

For a 15% correction in the beginning of the year, will be good for the greatest Santa Rally of our time

[AJS]

My DAX got stopped out.

 

I sneaked in long again on DAX and Nasdaq. That's my final straw.

 

That's why i said enjoy the profits while you can in a bull market. Skep tewyl dit reen.

 

All those profits help for days like these. You can gamble a bit because you have more than enough money

 

Keep the powder dry indeed.

 

Look, once the next secular bull market kicks off there are going to be bargains of a lifetime I think.

 

EM are in a conundrum now... Hike rates to take pressure off the currency and try to lure foreign funds sine places like the US still have record low interest rates. The problem is that it is going to be a double whammy for EM. US,UK etc. rates will start to rise (maybe only in a year or 18 months) and the continuation of QE tapering is going to see funds leave EM in any case. Which makes the rate hike almost pointless apart from trying to curb inflation, which is going to be difficult with exchange rates continuing to take strain.

 

I'm no economist though...  

 

*edit* Check DOW 15790 level... Watch closely!

Edited by AJS, 29 January 2014 - 08:31 PM.

[davidp13]

I cant remember when I wrote it, but as soon as Fed announced tapering, I called for n correction to +-32 000 or so.

I will go look for it and post it.

I am loving this drop and will only get out of my shorts if FED decides to hold the tapering.


Guess we will now see n correction in house prices also. Interest rates going up, with highly indebted people, will mean lots of defaults on bonds

Consumers to be squeezed.
I can imagine the turmoil on the market if the FED tapers.
 
I will be Jimmy get me out time. Phones should start ringing.
 
Anyway a 15-20% correction is healthy
 
S&P is sitting on the edge: https://pbs.twimg.co...AxaUT.png:large

A 15% correction for us is not that bad. Sets us up nicely for 50000!

[Sunesis]

Agree. Are you trading any US indices tonight?  Expecting big volatility with the announcement (either way) ?

My DAX got stopped out.

 

I sneaked in long again on DAX and Nasdaq. That's my final straw.

 

That's why i said enjoy the profits while you can in a bull market. Skep tewyl dit reen.

 

All those profits help for days like these. You can gamble a bit because you have more than enough money

[Sunesis]

I cant remember when I wrote it, but as soon as Fed announced tapering, I called for n correction to +-32 000 or so.
I will go look for it and post it.
I am loving this drop and will only get out of my shorts if FED decides to hold the tapering.

Guess we will now see n correction in house prices also. Interest rates going up, with highly indebted people, will mean lots of defaults on bonds

Consumers to be squeezed.

I can imagine the turmoil on the market if the FED tapers.

 

I will be Jimmy get me out time. Phones should start ringing.

 

Anyway a 15-20% correction is healthy

 

S&P is sitting on the edge: https://pbs.twimg.co...AxaUT.png:large

[AJS]

The only slight hope for EM markets now is a no taper, with a super dovish bias.

Even that, i will still sell any rally.

 

If we rally it would be a 3% rally, then the shorts start creeping back

 

Agree. Are you trading any US indices tonight?  Expecting big volatility with the announcement (either way) ?

[Sunesis]

Maybe the Fed brings some silver lining to the cloud... Who knows?

The only slight hope for EM markets now is a no taper, with a super dovish bias.

Even that, i will still sell any rally.

 

If we rally it would be a 3% rally, then the shorts start creeping back

[AJS]

Yes, been away on a consulting stint for a while, and will be for a while longer.
So I dont have a lot of time to post and trade, but still managed to get a short in near the high we were @.
I had to ave out as we went higher, but today's interest rate decision really made me very comfortable with the short.
Watch as the big guys start to price in the higher rate, we will fall like a stone!

This will get ugly, for the whole of SA.

Hopefully I'm just a pessimist.

Ps. From what I have been reading, the odd times, you have been putting in good trades AJS.

Keep it up

 

Cool man, keep well and good luck, nice of you to "pop in"!

 

Thanks... I'm trying real hard, charting away and climbing the learning curve. Will never be done learning!

Edited by AJS, 29 January 2014 - 07:21 PM.

[Beorn]

I cant remember when I wrote it, but as soon as Fed announced tapering, I called for n correction to +-32 000 or so.

I will go look for it and post it.

I am loving this drop and will only get out of my shorts if FED decides to hold the tapering.


Guess we will now see n correction in house prices also. Interest rates going up, with highly indebted people, will mean lots of defaults on bonds

Jakes!! long time!! Was wondering where you were. I remember that post very well!

Yes, been away on a consulting stint for a while, and will be for a while longer.
So I dont have a lot of time to post and trade, but still managed to get a short in near the high we were @.
I had to ave out as we went higher, but today's interest rate decision really made me very comfortable with the short.
Watch as the big guys start to price in the higher rate, we will fall like a stone!

This will get ugly, for the whole of SA.

Hopefully I'm just a pessimist.

Ps. From what I have been reading, the odd times, you have been putting in good trades AJS.

Keep it up

[AJS]

If they do we might as well through all charts and tech analysis out the window cause it wont mean anything.

 

They should stay on course with taper. That won't bode well for us, especially after the rate hike (since the hike won't mean much then in anyway).

[davidp13]

Sentiment is a b*tch.

 
Maybe the Fed brings some silver lining to the cloud... Who knows?

If they do we might as well through all charts and tech analysis out the window cause it wont mean anything.

[AJS]

I cant remember when I wrote it, but as soon as Fed announced tapering, I called for n correction to +-32 000 or so.
I will go look for it and post it.
I am loving this drop and will only get out of my shorts if FED decides to hold the tapering.

Guess we will now see n correction in house prices also. Interest rates going up, with highly indebted people, will mean lots of defaults on bonds

 

Jakes!! long time!! Was wondering where you were. I remember that post very well!

[Beorn]

I cant remember when I wrote it, but as soon as Fed announced tapering, I called for n correction to +-32 000 or so.
I will go look for it and post it.
I am loving this drop and will only get out of my shorts if FED decides to hold the tapering.

Guess we will now see n correction in house prices also. Interest rates going up, with highly indebted people, will mean lots of defaults on bonds

[Plasma]

Ai, today was not good....that volatility slapped me good.....

[AJS]

Sentiment is a b*tch.

 

Maybe the Fed brings some silver lining to the cloud... Who knows?

[davidp13]

And the word EM meltdown is now engraved! !!

Sentiment is a b*tch.

Yip and this one bites and not in the good way

[Sunesis]

And the word EM meltdown is now engraved! !!

Sentiment is a b*tch.