35854 replies to this topic

[cypher]

I'll do my thing, you do yours. This is a forum for opinions and not to critique others. I'm sure you have a great strategy that makes you a great living and that's great cause it suites your personality. I have my own life and my own way of doing things so if you have an opinion on market moves please go ahead and critique my logic but leave the personal advise out. I've also been doing this for a long time and I've also been to the brink.

Dude, I'll shut up.  You obviously didn't get the message.  Over and out.

[Mostlya]

Take it from someone who's been to the brink and back and survived.  You have to change your outlook and attitude.  Don't try and rationalise the market, you will get wiped out.  This game is 90% psychology.  My suggestion is to change your handle first.  You cannot be open-minded otherwise.  You must not try to take revenge on the market.

 

I'm not being facetious, just realistic.  I do this full-time, so can't afford f%$k around.

I'll do my thing, you do yours. This is a forum for opinions and not to critique others. I'm sure you have a great strategy that makes you a great living and that's great cause it suites your personality. I have my own life and my own way of doing things so if you have an opinion on market moves please go ahead and critique my logic but leave the personal advise out. I've also been doing this for a long time and I've also been to the brink.

[bullsnbears44]

reality is what is on my screen. the rest is emotion

What you see on your screen is a short term blip. The market is down almost 10% from it's last all-time high back in Nov 2015. The chart also shows me a market that ran out of steam in 2016. I see a world full of risks which aren't being priced in. I see euphoria all over the place. Reality is already on your screen, you're just looking at a small snapshot of it showing you a different picture.

[Mostlya]

Absolutely. Reality WILL hit and hit very hard. I have zero doubt in my short position and I'll keep adding to it. I can see this market dropping up to 50%, right down to the low 20k's.

The biggest red flag here is the Rand. The carry trade is clearly going to be a big deal even as the Fed goes through it 'hiking' cycle. Initially one would have thought that the Rand would protect the JSE from the obvious crash in the US but the Rand is unlikely to come to the party and might just surprise people in a big way. Eventually its strength will reduce inflation and it'll weaken but not before the JSE has been torn apart and the dual-listed shares don't dominate the top 10.

 

If nothing else hopefully this Rand strength helps protect the SA economy a touch although all data is clearly showing SA is in a wicked recession already. Everybody to follow shortly.

[gannet]

Absolutely. Reality WILL hit and hit very hard. I have zero doubt in my short position and I'll keep adding to it. I can see this market dropping up to 50%, right down to the low 20k's.

reality is what is on my screen. the rest is emotion

[cypher]

I want to say tomorrow it crashes but I know that's just my brain being irrational in the face of irrational moves. It's making this shorting business easier that's for sure. Any doubt I had before is now completely gone and I can finally see how the market is going to make its way towards the low 30s and beyond. Could take the whole year, could go into 2018 but it's going to get there eventually.

Take it from someone who's been to the brink and back and survived.  You have to change your outlook and attitude.  Don't try and rationalise the market, you will get wiped out.  This game is 90% psychology.  My suggestion is to change your handle first.  You cannot be open-minded otherwise.  You must not try to take revenge on the market.

 

I'm not being facetious, just realistic.  I do this full-time, so can't afford f%$k around.

[gannet]

we might meander down to around 10:06 for a short term dip

[bullsnbears44]

I want to say tomorrow it crashes but I know that's just my brain being irrational in the face of irrational moves. It's making this shorting business easier that's for sure. Any doubt I had before is now completely gone and I can finally see how the market is going to make its way towards the low 30s and beyond. Could take the whole year, could go into 2018 but it's going to get there eventually.

Absolutely. Reality WILL hit and hit very hard. I have zero doubt in my short position and I'll keep adding to it. I can see this market dropping up to 50%, right down to the low 20k's.

[Mostlya]

Indeed. Euphoria always comes before the fall. In a world where risk has been completed priced out you have to wonder how much longer this can carry on.

I want to say tomorrow it crashes but I know that's just my brain being irrational in the face of irrational moves. It's making this shorting business easier that's for sure. Any doubt I had before is now completely gone and I can finally see how the market is going to make its way towards the low 30s and beyond. Could take the whole year, could go into 2018 but it's going to get there eventually.

[bullsnbears44]

I've never seen a bigger over-reaction to nothing. Further evidence that the general market participant is deeply uninformed about the state of global economics and valuations in markets.

 

It's removing more and more uncertainty from my short position and creating bigger and more profitable targets. The Rand strength alone here should keep the ALSI flat but it won't because everything is going to be ignored here. Then all of a sudden every risk you could ever imagine will start being blamed for the plummeting stock values.

 

Good job to those that rode this bull surge but the time to remain bullish is coming to an end. You couldn't define euphoria more closely than this.

Indeed. Euphoria always comes before the fall. In a world where risk has been completed priced out you have to wonder how much longer this can carry on.

[gannet]

Ahhh ... thanks Ninja .... now I get it 

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[Ninja]

I imagine most of today's move is forced short covering..

[Mostlya]

I've never seen a bigger over-reaction to nothing. Further evidence that the general market participant is deeply uninformed about the state of global economics and valuations in markets.

 

It's removing more and more uncertainty from my short position and creating bigger and more profitable targets. The Rand strength alone here should keep the ALSI flat but it won't because everything is going to be ignored here. Then all of a sudden every risk you could ever imagine will start being blamed for the plummeting stock values.

 

Good job to those that rode this bull surge but the time to remain bullish is coming to an end. You couldn't define euphoria more closely than this.

[Ninja]

Bears get hanged from the top bollinger band

[gannet]

We all know where bulls go to be slaughtered .... but does anyone know what happens to bears????

[Ninja]

Alsi getting a kick from stronger commodity prices following dollar weakness... counter balance is naspers and industrials

UK and dax also very exuberant

[Ninja]

Bang... just like that she touched the top of the daily bolinger band

My shorts are burning

[bullsnbears44]

Celebrations are on in Asia this morning.... shorts getting hit

rate cuts were good for markets... now rate hikes are also good for markets...

Euphoria continues today. Everything is awesome again. As you said one minute it's bad next minute it's good. This insanity must end. I'll be adding to shorts.