35854 replies to this topic

[AJS]

Lets see where the FTSE takes us.

[Argento]

Gulp

Think it is actually very healthy and will be a good buying opportunity once she bottoms next year, should see some big moves coming to our shores....after mid December should be a good long into Jan!

 

Then the usual seasonal pattern will play out!

 

Think Tech T mentioned it as well, end target for next year should be around 36000ish (futures), but only guess work for now!

 

A

[AJS]

800 points down as my target?

 

Try more 1350 points...got 38000 (futures) before we should see a run towards the previous highs again...but it will fail!

 

According to my analysis our major correction for next year has already started and this currently is only the first warning shot for what is to come (started the top formation)...

 

A

 

Ag nee man!  I want to hold onto my SAB badly! But it is the big ones (CFR, SAB, NPN etc.) that are still to crack....

[Argento]

You have it about 800 points down from here? I will have to kill the bull in me if we get to that level!

800 points down as my target?

 

Try more 1350 points...got 38000 (futures) before we should see a run towards the previous highs again...but it will fail!

 

According to my analysis our major correction for next year has already started and this currently is only the first warning shot for what is to come (started the top formation)...

 

A

[HendrikB]

yep, DCF calculations done by first world ivory tower accountants dont realize that the number of years their future income streams for a proposed 'into Africa' business will be take a lot longer and be more volatile than anticipated - it may all go very well after a backhand deal and then a greedy ineptocratic (see my next post, will explain what it is) party like ANC or worse comes along and augurs poor future consumers.

I think a lot of companies are aware of the risk, but there has been enough success stories over the past decade to convince them to go ahead. Its the next logical step for SA companies.

[Argento]

She is approaching her daily 89..should provide some relief for the bulls, just pray she doesn't go under cause then the floodgates will open!

 

Don't bet on that double bottom...

 

A

Daily 89 providing some relief for the bulls...but for how long!?

 

US on the verge of turning down...!

A

[bear catcher]

My crystal ball is on fire

[Redeemer]

you know things are bad, when you see bulls taking profits in haste

 

Closed for a quick 100 at 39400 this am.

[massimo]

End of day alsi long at 39300. Lets see what happens tommorow morning.

Closed for a quick 100 at 39400 this am.

[fabes]

I am so tempted to enter that long. Everything tells me to go for itm but this past week has been murder. Either the bulls gonna make some serious cash today or nothing  Will buy at 39200 if we dip again this morning.

 

Did you get the shorthunter chubby? GOOD LUCK TO THE BULLS TODAY!! Hope we claim victory.

[Shortboy]

100% in agreement S. We have a lot of stuff to sort out down here....but compared to the rest..we are, by far, still the safest but maybe not the highest paying bet relatively speaking.

 

Hope that lonely long of yours gets some legs soon my man.

 

I bought your %*#? dip this afternoon at 39 261 - purely in expectation of scalping the short covering scenario that usually plays out so often lately.... lot tougher making a buck out of it the last few days...still holding.

Out for a 5 point loss. Will wait to see what this afternoon offers.

[Sam]

Short hunter needed for part time employment. Will pay handsomely on successful completion of the job! Sam you are going to have to pay half of this!! Bonus on completion of the hunt.

Lol...
I'd happily pay both the hit fee and bonus if the contract is completed in the next hour.

[Magic_Matt]

Short IG Cash @ 39280

[OceanWalz]

Just a hunch, nothing more...but I think we will open down this morning and then recover into afternoon. Reason for my thinking is as follows...our market has been under pressure for the best part of Nov due to profit taking/portfolio rebalancing by foreign investors and even some select local instos (Coro and Gray). Have a feeling that most of US based investors were aiming to be done with their selling by close of trade today, as tomorrow is Thanksgiving (which in their world is bigger than Christmas). I won't expect to see any large orders from US based investors tomorrow or even Friday. So let's see and one can only but hope that they are almost done...

Zero, this view of market slowdown over TurkeyFest longweekend in USA (always wonder whether the turkeys and the first nation peoples there share the sentiment of spirit of Thanks) contrast to the seasonal up move it has shown in past - 

 

However your view of slowdown is reflected by this USA view   "....Most of the senior traders are on vacation, leaving junior guys in charge of the trading desks.  That explains the light volume, but it also gives us insight into the kind of moves we might expect.  Most of the intelligent thought occurs on the buying side of a trade and is the domain of the most experienced managers.  On the selling side, they largely have set profit targets and stop-losses that trigger sales.  With the senior guys on vacation, we shouldn’t expect rookie traders to initiate new positions or buy dips without the oversight and approval of their bosses.  On the other hand, they do have their orders to sell when stocks hit predetermined price levels.  Limited buying authority and strict sell rules create the potential for a larger than normal selloff  since there will be fewer buyers ready to catch the dip.  That doesn’t mean this will happen, but we should expect fewer dip buyers if we stumble into some weakness   

...With few traders looking to buy aggressively this week, we shouldn’t expect a strong move higher.  On the other hand, crossing stop-losses could trigger a wave of selling and we could fall further than expected without the support of dip buyers.

This skew between buying and selling authority over the holiday week sets up a favorable short given the potential for limited dip buying in the face of any weakness.  Or the simpler move is sitting out the low-volume week and taking a well deserved break from the markets."

 

SPX is very extended here, bumping against the upper bollinger bands on the weekly and daily charts, with the weekly upper BB being formidable resistance historically. If we are to see anything other than a slow grind upwards then there will need to be decent retracements to clear overhead room for impulse moves up. We should see such a decent retracement soon, though it may not arrive until the (statistically bearish) week after Thanksgiving.

[K~~]

Had a long last night, with a stop, feeling relatively secure given the US market performance. Open eyes this morning....quick sneak at pad to check status....and we dropped like a beerdrol just after 2300. No man ....not nice.

 

Those GDP numbers were bad. As an overseas investor, where would you rather put your money? In a EM country with GDP growth of 0.7%, or one with 3% growth?

 

No-brainer.

 

Expect further weakness with some oversold bounces along the way.

 

K

[Zero Hedge]

Just a hunch, nothing more...but I think we will open down this morning and then recover into afternoon. Reason for my thinking is as follows...our market has been under pressure for the best part of Nov due to profit taking/portfolio rebalancing by foreign investors and even some select local instos (Coro and Gray). Have a feeling that most of US based investors were aiming to be done with their selling by close of trade today, as tomorrow is Thanksgiving (which in their world is bigger than Christmas). I won't expect to see any large orders from US based investors tomorrow or even Friday. So let's see and one can only but hope that they are almost done...

[Plasma]

Had a long last night, with a stop, feeling relatively secure given the US market performance. Open eyes this morning....quick sneak at pad to check status....and we dropped like a beerdrol just after 2300. No man ....not nice.

[OceanWalz]

Yip, Africa north of SA is where the world and SA wants to be....provided they can take risk, big risk. 

 

What companies first need to understand is whether they can do business in countries that have no or little room for western compliance or apply local regulations to the extreme.

 

Ask Tiger Brands how its going in Nigeria, or Altech who ventured into Kenya and got wiped out, even SAB couldn't make things happen in Nairobi when they first went in a few years back but they got it right in Eastern Europe and China. Then have a look at Shoprite's, FNB's and Konkola Mining's recent escapades with the Zambian government....

 

Huge risk, huge margin....if you can stomach it.

yep, DCF calculations done by first world ivory tower accountants dont realize that the number of years their future income streams for a proposed 'into Africa' business will be take a lot longer and be more volatile than anticipated - it may all go very well after a backhand deal and then a greedy ineptocratic (see my next post, will explain what it is) party like ANC or worse comes along and augurs poor future consumers.

Edited by OceanWalz, 27 November 2013 - 07:03 AM.

[OceanWalz]

good morning all , and this is the week of:

[Zero Hedge]

Cool