35854 replies to this topic

[Ninja]

This break to downside is for real.. Watch the guys short the santa rally... Come jan them funds will flow out quick and fast

[Shortboy]

It's possible.

Maybe some insiders are already selling, they know we are going to be downgraded.

With 0.7% GDP, we just basically suck.

Nigeria will be the next African Super Power

Yip, Africa north of SA is where the world and SA wants to be....provided they can take risk, big risk. 

 

What companies first need to understand is whether they can do business in countries that have no or little room for western compliance or apply local regulations to the extreme.

 

Ask Tiger Brands how its going in Nigeria, or Altech who ventured into Kenya and got wiped out, even SAB couldn't make things happen in Nairobi when they first went in a few years back but they got it right in Eastern Europe and China. Then have a look at Shoprite's, FNB's and Konkola Mining's recent escapades with the Zambian government....

 

Huge risk, huge margin....if you can stomach it.

[davidp13]

Ok. Thanks for your view. My concern is that with all our recent labour problems and lack of any substantial growth overseas investors will abandon South Africa which will not only be reflected in share prices declining but also a much weaker Rand as they move their funds elsewhere. A downgrading could easily see this occur and then we will certainly see a vicious bear-market in both shares and bonds as foreign investment departs.

It's possible.
Maybe some insiders are already selling, they know we are going to be downgraded.
With 0.7% GDP, we just basically suck.
Nigeria will be the next African Super Power

If all of this happens I going to love to see old Pravin dance like a cat on a hot plate and just before elections...

[Sunesis]

Ok. Thanks for your view. My concern is that with all our recent labour problems and lack of any substantial growth overseas investors will abandon South Africa which will not only be reflected in share prices declining but also a much weaker Rand as they move their funds elsewhere. A downgrading could easily see this occur and then we will certainly see a vicious bear-market in both shares and bonds as foreign investment departs.

It's possible.

Maybe some insiders are already selling, they know we are going to be downgraded.

With 0.7% GDP, we just basically suck.

Nigeria will be the next African Super Power

[grumpy old man]

There is still money in the big stocks, NPN has not even broke below R900 yet.

I think NPN below R900 will be the bubble bursting.

Some people are still holding on to their big stocks likeNaspers Aspen,Coronation,Mondi,Sasol,SAB,Richemont

Ok. Thanks for your view. My concern is that with all our recent labour problems and lack of any substantial growth overseas investors will abandon South Africa which will not only be reflected in share prices declining but also a much weaker Rand as they move their funds elsewhere. A downgrading could easily see this occur and then we will certainly see a vicious bear-market in both shares and bonds as foreign investment departs.

[Sunesis]

So you are suggesting that the funds are still here in South Africa?

There is still money in the big stocks, NPN has not even broke below R900 yet.

I think NPN below R900 will be the bubble bursting.

Some people are still holding on to their big stocks likeNaspers Aspen,Coronation,Mondi,Sasol,SAB,Richemont

[Sunesis]

The other day I was asking about megaphones... hope this isn't newbie style analysis, but I think we are close to a potential pivot point...

Question, will the megaphone grow one size bigger, or will it play out with Bears winning as is traditionally accepted to be the final result of this pattern.

Very good analysis.

What's also interesting is that, CFR (R100) SAB(R520) SOL(R500) BHP(R300) BTI(R530) all closed above their important levels today. Maybe some money does not want to leave.

 

One thing i can mention is that a close below 38800, i will take of my bull hat.

For now my long from 39500 is still in the storm.

[grumpy old man]

Maybe because of US 10year not above 3% yet.

The best trade will be when the FED don't taper, then USD/ZAR will fall around R9.70 Perfect to buy it

 

So you are suggesting that the funds are still here in South Africa?

[Sunesis]

I am not at all surprised to see foreigners selling such a significant amount of stocks and bonds but am a bit surprised that it has not reflected in a much weaker Rand. Anyone know why?
 

Maybe because of US 10year not above 3% yet.

The best trade will be when the FED don't taper, then USD/ZAR will fall around R9.70 Perfect to buy it

[Magic_Matt]

The other day I was asking about megaphones... hope this isn't newbie style analysis, but I think we are close to a potential pivot point...

Question, will the megaphone grow one size bigger, or will it play out with Bears winning as is traditionally accepted to be the final result of this pattern.

Attached Files

•  megaphone analysis.JPG   96.05KB   8 downloads

[grumpy old man]

Tweet from RMB Global markets "it is worth noting the negative signs coming from portfolio flows. Foreigners have sol R13bn of SA bonds & R8bn of stocks month-to-date

 

I am not at all surprised to see foreigners selling such a significant amount of stocks and bonds but am a bit surprised that it has not reflected in a much weaker Rand. Anyone know why?
 

[Argento]

If that's the case then funds are leaving our markets, they are going to park in other global markets.

We can say all the money went to the DAX and S&P.

 

Our market is becoming toxic

Yip, toxic indeed!

 

But funds will flow in again..last year this time around the US indexes had a much more severe correction, also to do with the commodities cycles..latter part of next year we should be dancing again!

 

A

[Sunesis]

So bull has 'died on Euphoria' perhaps?

The only interesting thing to note, what if the FED don't taper will the money come back.

Maybe investors are realizing that our country is going downhill.

 

Well done to the Bears

[Beorn]

Tweet from RMB Global markets "it is worth noting the negative signs coming from portfolio flows. Foreigners have sol R13bn of SA bonds & R8bn of stocks month-to-date

 

Thanks for the heads up.

[Magic_Matt]

So bull has 'died on Euphoria' perhaps?

 

If that's the case then funds are leaving our markets, they are going to park in other global markets.

We can say all the money went to the DAX and S&P.

 

Our market is becoming toxic

[Sunesis]

Tweet from RMB Global markets "it is worth noting the negative signs coming from portfolio flows. Foreigners have sol R13bn of SA bonds & R8bn of stocks month-to-date

If that's the case then funds are leaving our markets, they are going to park in other global markets.

We can say all the money went to the DAX and S&P.

 

Our market is becoming toxic

[OceanWalz]

 

I actually think we will gap down tomorrow.

 

It looks like foreign money leaving our markets, (whom might know something the rest of the market does not.)

And when they start cashing in, in US, we will drop like a stone.

such would be the case from insider knowledge of a downgrading if, and when it may happen - well, it is a constant sword over SA economy

Edited by OceanWalz, 26 November 2013 - 05:19 PM.

[Sam]

I actually think we will gap down tomorrow.
 
It looks like foreign money leaving our markets, (whom might know something the rest of the market does not.)
And when they start cashing in, in US, we will drop like a stone.

Tweet from RMB Global markets "it is worth noting the negative signs coming from portfolio flows. Foreigners have sol R13bn of SA bonds & R8bn of stocks month-to-date

[Argento]

Argento, if I understand correctly, you reckon the longer term trend supports a breakout to the bottom? And Chubby's view support a reversal from that support line? Where "exactly" is that line and where should we place our orders (whether going short or long from that line)? Around 39000??

BBW,

 

Trend is down till mid December (7/8 week cycle)...any bounce should be sold into, leave those longs till she bottomed out, she will have oversold bounces to work off those oversold oscillators but as I posted my target is around 38000ish (futures).

 

Futures close-out is on the 19th December so funds should keep her down till then!US is on its own path...we will play catch up after....

A

Edited by Argento, 26 November 2013 - 05:16 PM.

[Beorn]

I actually think we will gap down tomorrow.

 

It looks like foreign money leaving our markets, (whom might know something the rest of the market does not.)

And when they start cashing in, in US, we will drop like a stone.