35854 replies to this topic

[Argento]

Technically a drop more than 10% is considered as a classic market correction...a crash, well everybody knows when that happens and you remember it!

 

Looking good for the shorts..not sure if the C leg has started yet...will be an impulsive decline (1/2 days), then we will know the low is in..she can still zig zag up and down before though...!

 

A

B leg up still alive..but the C leg down is coming!

 

A

[Argento]

Hi A. Is there a site I can go to to read more about the sentiment indicator you refer to above?

Hi S,

 

Check out www.marketoracle.co.uk, I follow Tony Caldaro, Andre Gratian and Jack Steiman published articles/analysis, but just as information but they are quite good!

 

A

[Sunesis]

Drop correction crash blah blah and buy the dip comes out tops again.

The problem is or market does not get to move nicely with the US market, because it opens at 16h30 now, and our market closes after the US open.

[Sunesis]

Hi S,

 

You must be a great follower of Nadeem Walayat...see he calls for a Santa rally to above Dow 16,000 by late Dec 2013 and for the rally to possibly extend into March 2014 and above Dow 17,000!

 

Looking at the consolidation the US indexes made the past months it is very possible, and he has called it quite right before!

 

Only thing that is troublesome is sentiment...we are at pre-crash levels, back in April 2011 we had a reading of 41.6% and corrected 23%,in October 2007 we had a spread of 42.6% which corrected 50% (Jack Steiman figures).

 

We are very close to either those numbers so interesting to see what will transpire in the coming days and how the Fed protection will impact the course of any type of correction!

 

But short term it is possible we could see a quick snap down...interesting times!

 

A

People say i am a bull. I'm not a bull or a bear, I'm just bullish in a bull trend. I never trade against the trend.

How can i stand in front of a train and act like it's not coming.

It might take time or still be busy at another train station( correcting) but it's coming.

And it crushes everything in front of it.

 

Everybody is scared of taper. I would in fact like the FED to taper so we can have the big drop. It gives others a chance to buy good companies for pennies.

Market crashes affect the man in the street, it does not affect traders or capitalists.

[Shortboy]

Hi S,

 

You must be a great follower of Nadeem Walayat...see he calls for a Santa rally to above Dow 16,000 by late Dec 2013 and for the rally to possibly extend into March 2014 and above Dow 17,000!

 

Looking at the consolidation the US indexes made the past months it is very possible, and he has called it quite right before!

 

Only thing that is troublesome is sentiment...we are at pre-crash levels, back in April 2011 we had a reading of 41.6% and corrected 23%,in October 2007 we had a spread of 42.6% which corrected 50% (Jack Steiman figures).

 

We are very close to either those numbers so interesting to see what will transpire in the coming days and how the Fed protection will impact the course of any type of correction!

 

But short term it is possible we could see a quick snap down...interesting times!

 

A

Hi A. Is there a site I can go to to read more about the sentiment indicator you refer to above?

[ptomli]

My expectation of my S/L getting triggered Monday/Tuesday seems to have failed. Not that I'm complaining, but that was mighty close 

[bear catcher]

Drop correction crash blah blah and buy the dip comes out tops again.

[AJS]

If we beak 40600 (IG) convincingly I might actually enter a short!

[Argento]

Tapering tightens the market. US 10 year will spike up. 

 

I guess the FED are stuck in a corner. There is so much hype about taper that when they taper, the next month they will have to add more QE

 

The big question, will Bernanke resign with a bang or will Yellen start with a bang. I dont think anyone wants to be responsible for the  greatest financial crash that will happen when the US10 year bonds spike.

 

A strong dollar will just make US debt more. That's why China is buying  a lot of gold, they are preparing for the dollar crash. The Chinese are not stupid. When the Chinese have aquired enough gold, they will stop buying US debt, then the dollar will crash.

 

A dollar based economy is not good for the Chinese, they are buying US debt to keep their currency weak and make dollar strong. A strong dollar makes gold cheap for China to buy.

 

The are a lot of mind games in the economy. As traders we can only make money out of it. Who cares weather they taper.

 

Just my 2c

Hi S,

 

You must be a great follower of Nadeem Walayat...see he calls for a Santa rally to above Dow 16,000 by late Dec 2013 and for the rally to possibly extend into March 2014 and above Dow 17,000!

 

Looking at the consolidation the US indexes made the past months it is very possible, and he has called it quite right before!

 

Only thing that is troublesome is sentiment...we are at pre-crash levels, back in April 2011 we had a reading of 41.6% and corrected 23%,in October 2007 we had a spread of 42.6% which corrected 50% (Jack Steiman figures).

 

We are very close to either those numbers so interesting to see what will transpire in the coming days and how the Fed protection will impact the course of any type of correction!

 

But short term it is possible we could see a quick snap down...interesting times!

 

A

[Jonker]

Any thoughts about US opening? Futures look red.... You can only buy THAT many dips...

[Argento]

A crash leaves you out of pocket. A correction merely reduces your profit. So the same shift in the market can mean different things to different people.

 

Someone in the market for the last 30 years will see any upcoming ~30% drop in valuations as a correction. Someone who bought in yesterday will be looking for the nearest tall building.

Technically a drop more than 10% is considered as a classic market correction...a crash, well everybody knows when that happens and you remember it!

 

Looking good for the shorts..not sure if the C leg has started yet...will be an impulsive decline (1/2 days), then we will know the low is in..she can still zig zag up and down before though...!

 

A

[Jonker]

Any thoughts about US opening? Futures look red.... You can only buy THAT many dips...

[Plasma]

Well, tight trading range this afternoon as depicted on 5 min chart. Did not trade that, except somewhere in the beginning and lost some more points with a short. Now looking for 150 points. Not confident that our market will be giving that away now with a long. Moving from a strong bull sentiment to a more neutral sentiment. Seems markets will be waiting for Thursday to hear the position of the potentially new fed chair. Bummer...

[ptomli]

a crash is a drop is and a correction is something milder

 

A crash leaves you out of pocket. A correction merely reduces your profit. So the same shift in the market can mean different things to different people.

 

Someone in the market for the last 30 years will see any upcoming ~30% drop in valuations as a correction. Someone who bought in yesterday will be looking for the nearest tall building.

[OceanWalz]

,,,,,,,

And I never said crash, or even correction, I said drop.

 

Hi Jakes - just want to clarify bec in 'my' understanding a crash is a drop is and a correction is something milder - just clarify please

- but I guess here it means a drop as something milder?

[Sunesis]

Tapering does not mean the end of QE.

And I never said crash, or even correction, I said drop.

 

I expect we will see FED start to taper, but, when markets react very badly to this, they will prob resume printing.

 

FED will not be able to continue buying $85 bil of assets a month forever, assuming that is stupid.

But trying to call when they will stop could be expensive.

Tapering tightens the market. US 10 year will spike up. 

 

I guess the FED are stuck in a corner. There is so much hype about taper that when they taper, the next month they will have to add more QE

 

The big question, will Bernanke resign with a bang or will Yellen start with a bang. I dont think anyone wants to be responsible for the  greatest financial crash that will happen when the US10 year bonds spike.

 

A strong dollar will just make US debt more. That's why China is buying  a lot of gold, they are preparing for the dollar crash. The Chinese are not stupid. When the Chinese have aquired enough gold, they will stop buying US debt, then the dollar will crash.

 

A dollar based economy is not good for the Chinese, they are buying US debt to keep their currency weak and make dollar strong. A strong dollar makes gold cheap for China to buy.

 

The are a lot of mind games in the economy. As traders we can only make money out of it. Who cares weather they taper.

 

Just my 2c

[Beorn]

The reason the ECB reduced rates was because of low inflation. The UK just posted low CPI numbers today, this will support FTSE going up. The US is not out of the woods yet, inflation is still low.

The bears are so wishing QE ends. One thing i can tell you is that QE is here to stay. As long as the big companies Goldman Sachs,Coca Cola, McDonalds, ExxonMobil,IBM,Microsoft,Apple,Visa,Procter & Gamble, Walmart are still controlling the world. Just remember that Walmart is not a making a big profit yet. This means consumers are not spending.

 

Bull markets only end when the is a big hype in the stock market and consumers feeling rich. The problem with the FED is that everytime they want to taper, the market contracts 2 or 3 months after the announcement. Consumers spend less, then the FED are scared to taper. Taper is a phycology game between the FED and traders. Those of us who have known this for the past 3 years have made a lot of money. Those who are always expecting a taper or crash have lost big time. One thing i have also realised is that everytime the market has a correction people think it's a crash. Then bulls like me are the ones who make money when the market finally decides to shoot up.

 

The South African rand will continue to be weak, exporting companies or companies with global presence will continue to push up. That's why you find companies like Shoprite expanding  a lot of shops outside of South Africa. The South African consumer will suffer the most. MTN is a safer company than Vodacom. The ALSI has only been pushed up by companies which make profits in dollars. I expect that to continue. You must take a look at the wheat and oil price in the US, it's very low. This shows you that inflation wont come now.

 

The US WTI oil price will come down further because by 2016, the US will we the worlds biggest oil producer. But South African inflation we sky rocket at that time. That's why it's good to  trade in a dollar account than a Rand account. 

 

Tapering does not mean the end of QE.

And I never said crash, or even correction, I said drop.

 

I expect we will see FED start to taper, but, when markets react very badly to this, they will prob resume printing.

 

FED will not be able to continue buying $85 bil of assets a month forever, assuming that is stupid.

But trying to call when they will stop could be expensive.

[Sunesis]

The question is, will you recognize the turn?

Our climb has been QE fueled, the drop will also be QE (end) fueled.

I see this drop as tapering starting to be priced in, could get ugly.

 

But its worked for you so far, you def have a bigger pair than me.

 

ps. The trend is your friend, but watch for the bend at the end. 

The reason the ECB reduced rates was because of low inflation. The UK just posted low CPI numbers today, this will support FTSE going up. The US is not out of the woods yet, inflation is still low.

The bears are so wishing QE ends. One thing i can tell you is that QE is here to stay. As long as the big companies Goldman Sachs,Coca Cola, McDonalds, ExxonMobil,IBM,Microsoft,Apple,Visa,Procter & Gamble, Walmart are still controlling the world. Just remember that Walmart is not a making a big profit yet. This means consumers are not spending.

 

Bull markets only end when the is a big hype in the stock market and consumers feeling rich. The problem with the FED is that everytime they want to taper, the market contracts 2 or 3 months after the announcement. Consumers spend less, then the FED are scared to taper. Taper is a phycology game between the FED and traders. Those of us who have known this for the past 3 years have made a lot of money. Those who are always expecting a taper or crash have lost big time. One thing i have also realised is that everytime the market has a correction people think it's a crash. Then bulls like me are the ones who make money when the market finally decides to shoot up.

 

The South African rand will continue to be weak, exporting companies or companies with global presence will continue to push up. That's why you find companies like Shoprite expanding  a lot of shops outside of South Africa. The South African consumer will suffer the most. MTN is a safer company than Vodacom. The ALSI has only been pushed up by companies which make profits in dollars. I expect that to continue. You must take a look at the wheat and oil price in the US, it's very low. This shows you that inflation wont come now.

 

The US WTI oil price will come down further because by 2016, the US will we the worlds biggest oil producer. But South African inflation we sky rocket at that time. That's why it's good to  trade in a dollar account than a Rand account. 

[Plasma]

Need 136 points to break-even for the day...

[Redeemer]

Last one at 40644...now for the wait

 

Last long 40650.

 

Now to sit and make watch a movie and let the money roll in.