35854 replies to this topic

[Mad Max]

Congrats! You just bagged +-100 points.

 

Viva La Bull! Lol

Technically the highest sell at the moment is @40283 but your point is taken !

[Trainee Trader]

2nd long 40188

 

Congrats! You just bagged +-100 points.

 

Viva La Bull! Lol

[K~~]

I'm looking forward to this! Opposing views. Please post your eventual exits! Thanks!  PS I'm in cash.

 

PPS. This is not a competition, but a learning opportunity.

[Sunesis]

Goldman’s Sachs are hiring if you’re interested

 

Goldman COO Gary Cohn on the wires saying that they looking for seasoned traders and sales people.

• Says tapering is up in the air
• US economy hasn’t created real jobs
• Unemployment drop driven by participation drop
• Economy at same place a year ago
• QE makes as much sense as it did a year ago
• Fed will eventually taper but could be a long time
• Says he’s very sympathetic to main street (putting my tin hat on)
• Doesn’t know if main street understands impact of Wall st (now body armour)
• Not concerned about rising interest rates
• Very excited about Goldman in growing economy
• Hiring more people will bring more revenue
• Bonuses will depend on Q4 business

 

[Sunesis]

Bullish

 

US debt Market Decline

 

9th Market Decline

Index % Performance From Intra-Day High To Intra-Day Low DowJones Industrial 6.3% DowJonesTransportation 5.2% S&P500 4.8% Russell2000 4.5% Russell Mid-Cap (IWR) 4.7% Micro-Cap (IWC) 4.2% NASDAQ Composite 4.4% SOX Index 4.2% FTSE 100 5.1% DAX Index 3.2% CAC 40 2.9% BRIC 5.0%

 

As you can see, the worst performing average during the Sept/Oct decline was none other than the Dow Jones Industrial average itself; note that the secondary's (mid-, small- and micro-caps) outperformed the Dow's large-cap components on the downside. Europe, especially France and Germany, did exceptionally well versus the US while some developing markets also did better than the DJIA. I am glad to report that ten of the twelve indexes in Table 1 are making new highs as I write this letter; the DJIA and the FTSE 100 are lagging, but due to the market's breadth and momentum during this current advance, they too are expected to catch-up and make new highs.

I believe that the March 2009 low was a generational low similar to the August 1982 bottom, commencing a secular bull market that ended in early 2000. Thus, I believe our current secular bull market still has many years to run. But, of course, it will not be a straight line up - there will be many pitfalls on the way which will precipitate cyclical bear markets. Having said this, one of the overriding positives for me is something I call, structural sentiment. Unlike the weekly Bull/Bear statistics, the AAII polls and the Put/Call ratios, which are very helpful in identifying near-term shifts in investor sentiment, I take a much longer-term view, see Figure 1.

Figure 1. Three Phases of Investor Sentiment During Classic Secular Bull Markets

Source: “The Fourth Mega Market”, Ralph J. Acampora, CMT

Phase One. At the end of a typical bear market, investors are froth with 'fear' after having experienced a serious sell-off; but, this time the 2007 thru 2009 debacle was anything but typical: investors saw the leading averages drop 50%; some large, well respected, money center banks sold down to low single digits; and once, highly regarded brokerage firms had to be taken over or simply go out of business. Not only were investors traumatized by their own losses but they found themselves disbelieving the system, starting with the rating agencies that haphazardly slapped AAA ratings on just about everything, especially subprime mortgages. In this kind of environment investors feel that they have no choice but to buy safety: quality large-cap blue chip stocks, with a long history of paying dividends. The public remains on the sidelines, underinvested in equities. Today is a classic example of this: they still have trillions of dollars in bonds and money market funds despite the fact that the S&P 500 is up about 160% over the past four and a half years, see Figure 2.

Figure 2. It Took Years for The 1982/2000 Secular Bull Market to See a Shift from Bonds into Equities

Phase 2. Those professionals who have participated in the stock market and have gleaned handsome profits to date will feel that now is the opportune time to broaden-out their holdings; as their comfort level increases they begin to lighten-up on some of their blue-chips and reinvest in secondary issues. This is exactly what Table1 is reflecting today - mid-cap and small-caps are outperforming large-caps over the past few months, see Figure 3. Why? Because investors, both institutional and retail, are starting to believe that things are getting better. They've seen the market absorb some real bad news, only to regain its momentum and move higher; e.g. the US downgraded by S&P; the 'fiscal cliff', the Arab Spring and most recently, the government shut-down. They trust that things will get better.

Figure 3. The Russell 2000 Is At All-Time New Highs relative To The S&P 500

Phase 3: This is a time when everyone thinks that making money in the stock market is easy. They now get their advice from friends at the Saturday night cocktail parties. Who needs research, they shout, as their arrogance increases. Over time these speculative 'stock tips' make them serious money which further increases their self-inflated egos. There is nothing like rising stock prices to lure in the unsuspecting. The last time we witnessed anything like this was in the late 1990s - 'The .Com Bubble" period where complacency and greed reigned supreme. So far this is not the case - money is only slowly flowing out of bonds and into equities these days - therefore, a surge in reckless public buying is not apparent at this time. Thank God!

Conclusion: The relief from the government shut-down, the historic implications following a strong 'summer rally', the broad-based leadership, especially in secondary issues and in the impressive performance of most global markets supports my belief that the fourth quarter will be a very impressive time for investors. The new high in the S&P 500 reinforces my near-term target of 1800.....a secondary objective of 1850 is also a strong possibility.

   

 

[Trainee Trader]

Im short @ 40200

 

I'm with you Chubby. My target this morning was 40,170 and we touched it. Short again @ 40,170, target @ 39,800.

[Sunesis]

Bearish

 

This time is different!

Those four words have condemned more investors to ruin than any other four words in the English language. It has buried many great and wise men. In fact in 1721 it ruined Sir Isaac Newton, one of the great minds of the past 400 years, when he invested his entire estate in the South Sea Real Estate scam. He died a pauper living in his daughter’s house.

 

This time is different!

Last week we talked about the tech IPOs hitting the market right now. As of October twenty-eight tech companies have gone public, of which nineteen had never shown a profit. Think about that, over two thirds of the tech companies that are now publicly traded since the first of the year have never made dime one.

But wait, it’s the potential of these companies that makes them so valuable, not the profit they are making today. The future will be very bright and people will need their products, even if they don’t use them now. Tomorrow they will justify their billion to one P/E ratios when the profits start rolling in.

 

Can you say dot.com bubble!

 

A new Real Estate bubble is forming and it’s not in the U.S., but in Europe, which hasn’t gotten over the last bubble! Prices of urban properties in London and many cities in Germany have reached levels that cannot possibly be sustained.

 

Fueled by very low interest rates from the worldwide QE, investors have driven the price of London Real Estate up more than 80% since 2005 and since the end of the Great Recession they have advanced over 30%. Houses offered in the Greater London area are up more than 11% in October, while homes in the rest of Great Britain are up no more than 1% during this time, with homes in parts of Wales declining in price.

 

In Germany the Bundesbank warned the German urban market is overpriced by at least 10% and in some areas it is much greater. The bank warned buyers to beware they are at substantial risk if they buy property at the current levels.

 

This latest bubble has not been driven by shady mortgage brokers and greedy investment bankers, it has been fueled by greedy investors. This latest shell game will end the same as the others, the last one in will be left holding the bag and they will scream foul.

This time won’t different!

 

So before you decide the dollar is going to zero and all of your investments will be worthless unless they are in hard commodities, I suggest you look at what happens when hard commodities fall out of favor with Wall Street.

This time won’t be different!

[Sunesis]

I'll be posting a bullish and bearish article soon. Although i don't use media to place my trades.

Its still nice to read about what the bears and bulls are thinking

 

 

[bear catcher]

Go Chubby

[K~~]

2nd long 40188

 

 

Im short @ 40200

 

I'm looking forward to this! Opposing views. Please post your eventual exits! Thanks!  PS I'm in cash.

[Sunesis]

Im short @ 40200

2nd long 40188

[Sunesis]

Nice Read 

 

While we wait for ALSI to get dancing again, we can have a read on the following by  Paul B. Farrell

 

Yes, 2014 is coming, fast, now dubbed the “Year of the Boom.” Bulls roaring. Hot race to New Years 2013. Then beyond into a booming, bullish 2014 rally. Yes, the Great Gatsby’s spirit is back in America. Top billing. Let the good times roll. Come join the party.

Enlarge Image

Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Great Gatsby.”

Great shot of Leonardo DiCaprio as the Great Gatsby over on Business Insider. Dapper in a classy tuxedo, handing you a glass of Dom Perignon bubbles. His infectious, irresistible smile. You can even hear Judy Garland singing: “Forget all your troubles. C’mon get happy. Shout hallelujah. Chase all your cares away. Get ready.” Yes, ready for the 2014 boom.

The markets are living in a timeless Roaring Twenties exuberance. There are five huge reasons it’ll accelerate past a New Years rally into 2014. Yes, you can make some real money. This year. And next. Don’t miss it. Listen to the revelers toasting all over the ballroom. Confetti flying. Strobe lights flashing. Jazz band tapping a snappy Charleston. Madcap dancing. Get ready, jump into the festivities, get on this new bandwagon.

Even old grumpy Dr. Doom, celeb economist Nouriel Roubini, recently began humming a happy tune for investors, all over national television: “A global recovery is going to occur, so you might want to be marginally overweight in equities.” Marginally? From Dr. Doom that’s damn bullish. Sure got my feet tapping, reminding me of my March 2009 column where I one-upped the Great Roubini in “6 reasons I’m calling a bottom and a new bull.” Great call, last four years the market’s more than doubled.

Time again. Get on the floor. Back in the game. Dance the night away. Bets on the tables.

Please don’t miss it, ride this rally past New Years into 2014

Yes, folks, 2014 really is the “Year of the Boom.” That’s the hot, breathless, engraved- invitation-to-the-party thrust of Matthew Boesler’s Business Insider column, “Here comes the final melt-up for the one percenters,” a fascinating summary of 2014 market predictions made by the great Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist over at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. Yes, 2014 is his big “Year of the Boom.”

The Super Rich are staying in the game, piling on the chips, betting big on one roaring hurrah, the final race to the finish line for America’s wealthiest. One last all-in bet by Forbes 400 billionaires, day traders and all the hotshot high-frequency traders gambling in the too-big-to-fail banks and out in the shadowy $650 trillion global derivatives casino.

So why the happy days music from the big players? Why a final melt-up for the one percenters. Not tapering, the new Fed chairwoman won’t turn off the cheap money machine. In fact, Merrill Lynch’s Hartnett says “Wall Street’s boom will likely continue until Main Street’s recovery becomes visible and tightening starts.”

Could be a while, given all the political infighting. Till then, investors, politicians and all Americans are smoking the same old irrational exuberance weed that got us in trouble times before. As Hartnett put it:

“We believe the opiate of investors for the moment remains central bank liquidity. The degree of stimulus since 2007 has been unprecedented: $13 trillion of FX reserve accumulation and financial asset purchases by central banks and 560 central bank rate cuts. And the ‘bulls’ appear to remain driven by ‘liquidity’ ... ‘Bernanke-care’ may have truly cured all known investor concerns” for 2014.

Surprise 2014 for investors, growth driving a new market rally?

So Hartnett’s definitely in the Roaring Twenties groove, singing, dancing and answering his own biggest economic question: “Where’s the growth? ... We think stronger growth, perhaps much stronger U.S. growth, will be the investor surprise in the next 12 month ... with a successful asset price reflation” generated by five powerful engines driving our recovery ... “significant monetary stimulus ... a booming housing market ... an inexpensive dollar ... record corporate cash balances ... and increasing energy independence.”

Get it? Surprising growth for the markets. And he’s a true believer: “If the U.S. economy does not significantly accelerate in coming quarters, we think it is difficult to say when it ever will.” Yes, it will grow. That’s why 2014 is the “Year of the Boom,” time for rallies and recovery, a Roaring Twenties sequel, coming well before a crashing market.

The sense you get from tracking all this happy talk about 2014 as the “Year of the Boom” and a “Final Melt-Up for the One Percenters” is that our pundits aren’t really calling this the final days before a crash, like the fall of 1929 when Yale economist Irving Fisher proclaimed “the nation is marching along a permanently high plateau of prosperity.”

In fact, pundits may not even see a bear market separating the last bull and the next. A new normal? Read the new Wall Street Journal report, “Top bear’s bullish tilt has followers growling.” After many years as a permabear, former Merrill Lynch chief economist David Rosenberg surrendered, a turncoat. Clients weren’t happy. Roubini’s likely getting similar criticism.

Still, they’re bowing to the facts. They see happy days for 2014.

6 reasons to jump back in, dance to the new Roaring Twenties spirit

Back in 2009 when we beat Roubini to the punch, “calling a bottom and a new bull,” the Dow was 6,547. Recently it hit a new record 15,676. More than doubled. If it doubles without a bear pause, guess what ... the Dow could be pushing 24,000 by 2017. So where’s the risk?

Here’s an update of the six reasons we gave investors for jumping back in when the Dow was crashing, dropping into 6,547:

1. Stocks make big money sudden, fast, then go to “sleep”

Several years ago Journal columnist Jason Zweig reported on some fascinating research: “History shows that the vast majority of the time, the stock market does next to nothing. Then, when no one expects it, the market delivers a giant gain or loss — and promptly lapses back into its usual stupor.” Well, this time some actually expect a 2014 boom.

2. The stock market always turns before the economy bottoms

The stock market is a leading indicator. Stocks historically kick into action earlier than the economy recovers, often six months ahead of the economy’s bottom.

3. Forget market timing, you can’t predict big or small moves

Markets are notoriously unpredictable. Not by Main Street. Certainly not by Wall Street. In his classic “Stocks for the Long Run,” Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel studied all the big market moves between 1801 and 2001. He found that 75% of the time there was no logical reason for big moves in stocks up or big moves down.

4. Famous media darling pundits inevitably flame out

Former Journal science columnist Sharon Begley once wrote a piece in Newsweek, “Why pundits get things wrong.” Her opening: “Pointing out how often pundits’ predictions are not only wrong but egregiously wrong — a 36,000 Dow! euphoric Iraqis welcoming American soldiers with flowers! — is like shooting fish in a barrel, except in this case the fish refuse to die. But no matter how often they miss the mark, pundits just won’t shut up.”

5. Even the most respected expert can make massive errors

Over a decade ago a BusinessWeek title said it all: “What do you call an economist with a prediction? Wrong.” A few years later, in “So I was off by a trillion,” BusinessWeek reported how Gregory Boskin, former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, publicly miscalculated future tax payments on withdrawals from tax-deferred retirement accounts. Later, others rechecked his numbers; he had to admit his $12 trillion in savings was bogus. Too often political ideologies trump “objective” economists pronouncements.

6. Paradoxically, Washington’s political drama is good for the stock market

In the short run the government shutdown was a $24 billion disaster. But over in the Journal, E.S. Browning sees a stock “silver lining” in a Ned Davis Research “good news” comment: “This is the best environment for stocks right now ... economy kept growing ... don’t have rising interest rates ... don’t have inflationary pressures ... do have earnings growth ... and the turmoil is widely expected to keep the Fed” printing cheap money.

Plus, “the most positive indicator,” says the Davis team, “is that unemployment is a high 7.3%, but declining.” And history tells us “when the unemployment rate is above 6% and falling, that is the best situation for the stock market.”

And that’s six great reasons 2014 is the “Year of the Boom,” a great time for a Roaring Twenties jazz band party ... and for investing in a bullish, booming stock market. So place your bets. Time to drink a case of your favorite intoxicating bubbly irrational exuberance! You earned it. 

 

Paul B. Farrell is a MarketWatch columnist based in San Luis Obispo, Calif. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWFarrell.

 

[Argento]

Back in long too!

 

A

ALSI back to her dullness....think the next few days going to be pretty boring while grinding higher!

 

Know she needs to retest that previous high (40300ish J200) again so the further she goes north the better the short come early November!

 

Think going to take a nap now...

 

A

[Sunesis]

Sunesis, you said you evade paying tax, you said people who pay tax lack financial intelligence, you said you will bribe the police. Some of your insights are great, but these others are shocking statements. Stick to trading comments and not the others'.

 

I have been long in the market for a very long time, and adding to longs - I'm doing just fine thank you.

Lets stick to trading, what we do with our personal lifes is irrelevent.

Hope you have a good day

 

Viva La Bull        

[@sirgrantfleming]

I'm happy and smiling O.

 

I like red days, the are good for dip buys. Its just people like @sirgrantfleming talk a whole lot of sh#t

 

Its better for me to be quite now before i talk sh*t back to him

Sunesis, you said you evade paying tax, you said people who pay tax lack financial intelligence, you said you will bribe the police. Some of your insights are great, but these others are shocking statements. Stick to trading comments and not the others'.

 

I have been long in the market for a very long time, and adding to longs - I'm doing just fine thank you.

[Olymphia]

I'm happy and smiling O. I like red days, the are good for dip buys. Its just people like @sirgrantfleming talk a whole lot of sh#t Its better for me to be quite now before i talk sh*t back to him

Lol..... U da man.

[Sunesis]

U know on a red day S is normally quite, surprised t hear him tday

O

I'm happy and smiling O.

 

I like red days, the are good for dip buys. Its just people like @sirgrantfleming talk a whole lot of sh#t

 

Its better for me to be quite now before i talk sh*t back to him

[Olymphia]

U know on a red day S is normally quite, surprised t hear him tday

O

[Sunesis]

I prefer this forum to be apolitcal S...I wouldn't want the members political views to taint my views on them. What if I found out Argento supported a party I didn't like. I wouldn't be able to follow his posts afterwards and just think how much money I would lose out..Lets stick to trading guys

@sirgrantfleming  is just someone who likes to monitor my views. He probably does not make money since he has time to always make comments about my posts.

 

He has to be on the opposite trade as me everytime, because i sense he does not like me very much. Hope the market teaches him a lesson

[Plasma]

They should arrest Zuma 1st.
Our police service is disfuntional. All i have to do is give them some off my trading profits and the case will be droped.

With money you can avoid anything.

I prefer this forum to be apolitcal S...I wouldn't want the members political views to taint my views on them. What if I found out Argento supported a party I didn't like. I wouldn't be able to follow his posts afterwards and just think how much money I would lose out..Lets stick to trading guys

Ditto