35854 replies to this topic

[gannet]

Morning O,

 

Was on the 30min timeframe!

 

She should turn nicely green today!

 

A

 

I agree we should see a bounce of sorts ... but downside risk remains and the next fall could be dramatic

 

The market is unlikely to be as stubborn as it was at the recent top. I think the reversal will be sudden

[Shortboy]

Ok no real stats but will outline trades from 25th. 

 

Will list from oldest to youngest, the trades I have sold and the loss trades, one extra thing you need to know is that i try and get a stop loss set at 100 points in the profit on every trade as soon as it is possible. every trade starts with a 100 point stop loss from the point of buying it although I sometimes change that and always end up loosing money, I move that stop up till it is 100 in profit. 

 

oldest trade currently on the books, bought on the 25th of feb currently a little over 1000 points. 

march 2 at 1000 points now. 

march 6 at 940 now

march 9 at 640

march 10 at 460.

 

next trades that were stopped out but still in profit. 

 

feb 26 stopped out at 100

feb 27 stopped out at 100

march 4 stopped at 100

march 6 stopped at 100

 

losses

feb 26 loss 90

feb 27 loss 40

march 3 loss 109

march 6 loss 96

march 9 loss 120

 

so currently carrying 5 open at  4000 points in total

 

4 stopped out each at 100 points for a total of 400 points profit

 

5 contract losses totaling 455. 

 

so that puts me at about 3950 in the green for now, not bad for 2 weeks of Shitty trading. 

 

All the shorts I am carrying have had the stops moved today to 46600 in case this thing does a u turn later this week. But I think sideways for a day or 2 and then down a bit more. if the MACD crosses the 0 line on the daily then i think it will go down big. 

 

So no real stats but this works for me. Each contract is a single in every case. when I am in the office I do trade more but this week I have been out and about quite a bit, hence all the stops at 100, i can do better if I am watching and usually manually sell off the ones I think will loose at better profits.

 

does this help.

 

G  

I also notice that the value and number of your losses appear to be much less than your wins. Great stuff. Thanks for posting G.

[Argento]

Hi A,  trying to see on what time frame you using to see this positive divergence and on what indicator?

Morning O,

 

Was on the 30min timeframe!

 

She should turn nicely green today!

 

A

[OceanWalz]

Thanks a Mil Grant, that is going to be helpful stats you gave here for us!

[grantmu]

Some good work there G

ta 

 

Trying hard to get it right. Would have done better if i did not have to run around so much this month, but other business calling for some help and the rand dollar not helping those bottom lines at the moment. If economy continues to decline will have to close a few, but then hopefully will be able to trade more, just spending time moving staff around so that they don't loose jobs.

 

G

[Plasma]

Thanks Grantmu, - I will check this clean of noise and hope method and see how it goes - do you have any stats on it?

Ok no real stats but will outline trades from 25th.

Will list from oldest to youngest, the trades I have sold and the loss trades, one extra thing you need to know is that i try and get a stop loss set at 100 points in the profit on every trade as soon as it is possible. every trade starts with a 100 point stop loss from the point of buying it although I sometimes change that and always end up loosing money, I move that stop up till it is 100 in profit.

oldest trade currently on the books, bought on the 25th of feb currently a little over 1000 points.
march 2 at 1000 points now.
march 6 at 940 now
march 9 at 640
march 10 at 460.

next trades that were stopped out but still in profit.

feb 26 stopped out at 100
feb 27 stopped out at 100
march 4 stopped at 100
march 6 stopped at 100

losses
feb 26 loss 90
feb 27 loss 40
march 3 loss 109
march 6 loss 96
march 9 loss 120

so currently carrying 5 open at 4000 points in total

4 stopped out each at 100 points for a total of 400 points profit

5 contract losses totaling 455.

so that puts me at about 3950 in the green for now, not bad for 2 weeks of Shitty trading.

All the shorts I am carrying have had the stops moved today to 46600 in case this thing does a u turn later this week. But I think sideways for a day or 2 and then down a bit more. if the MACD crosses the 0 line on the daily then i think it will go down big.

So no real stats but this works for me. Each contract is a single in every case. when I am in the office I do trade more but this week I have been out and about quite a bit, hence all the stops at 100, i can do better if I am watching and usually manually sell off the ones I think will loose at better profits.

does this help.

G

Some good work there G

[grantmu]

Thanks Grantmu, - I will check this clean of noise and hope method and see how it goes - do you have any stats on it?

Ok no real stats but will outline trades from 25th. 

 

Will list from oldest to youngest, the trades I have sold and the loss trades, one extra thing you need to know is that i try and get a stop loss set at 100 points in the profit on every trade as soon as it is possible. every trade starts with a 100 point stop loss from the point of buying it although I sometimes change that and always end up loosing money, I move that stop up till it is 100 in profit. 

 

oldest trade currently on the books, bought on the 25th of feb currently a little over 1000 points. 

march 2 at 1000 points now. 

march 6 at 940 now

march 9 at 640

march 10 at 460.

 

next trades that were stopped out but still in profit. 

 

feb 26 stopped out at 100

feb 27 stopped out at 100

march 4 stopped at 100

march 6 stopped at 100

 

losses

feb 26 loss 90

feb 27 loss 40

march 3 loss 109

march 6 loss 96

march 9 loss 120

 

so currently carrying 5 open at  4000 points in total

 

4 stopped out each at 100 points for a total of 400 points profit

 

5 contract losses totaling 455. 

 

so that puts me at about 3950 in the green for now, not bad for 2 weeks of Shitty trading. 

 

All the shorts I am carrying have had the stops moved today to 46600 in case this thing does a u turn later this week. But I think sideways for a day or 2 and then down a bit more. if the MACD crosses the 0 line on the daily then i think it will go down big. 

 

So no real stats but this works for me. Each contract is a single in every case. when I am in the office I do trade more but this week I have been out and about quite a bit, hence all the stops at 100, i can do better if I am watching and usually manually sell off the ones I think will loose at better profits.

 

does this help.

 

G  

Edited by grantmu, 10 March 2015 - 08:11 PM.

[delta66]

banked profits/closed shorts..2morrow another day

[Dabre]

Today I learned the importance of Stop loss. A very expensive lesson. A good call to the Bears well done guys! BTFD didn't work today

[delta66]

with respect A, cant see us rallying 500p in the short term(overnight)  added shorts 46250(cash)  S&P500 could be in for a dogfight defending 2050 level

[gannet]

Long here for a quick 500+ points, is already positive divergence showing!

 

A

 

Good call on the long as well A

 

I closed all my shorts ... and on the fence for now

 

Didn't want to be around for a bounce.

[Beorn]

I'm not so sure the drop is done, but damn good trade sir. Very well done.

 

Open interest dropping like a stone again after equity close. Longs be cautious.

IMO.

You know things are not well when big boys dont want to leave longs overnight. (it's big boys that close 1000 contracts in 5 min)

[Beorn]

Long here for a quick 500+ points, is already positive divergence showing!

 

A

 

I'm not so sure the drop is done, but damn good trade sir. Very well done.

[OceanWalz]

Long here for a quick 500+ points, is already positive divergence showing!

 

A

Hi A,  trying to see on what time frame you using to see this positive divergence and on what indicator?

[Argento]

Thanks MP and B!

 

Taking my 700 points here...she is at her lower daily bollingerband so we should see an oversold bounce tomorrow to go and close this mornings gap...before the final downphase starts into next week!

 

A

Long here for a quick 500+ points, is already positive divergence showing!

 

A

[davidp13]

Thanks MP and B!

 

Taking my 700 points here...she is at her lower daily bollingerband so we should see an oversold bounce tomorrow to go and close this mornings gap...before the final downphase starts into next week!

 

A

been short this baby since 46858 and will keep it for a while  

[Polly]

I am really starting to feel sorry for some of the traders on this group. It seems to me that direction changes seems to also coincide with this hope and pray attitude that because YOU have made a bet the market will go in your favor. Most of you will know I am not that good at the bear, and for the last 2 years I have been working on getting it right, well I am getting better and here are my words of wisdom.

 

First decide what kind of trader you are: if you follow 'A" then you are longer term trader that is prepared to hold a position until it tuns based on information about the market, Seasonal trading, the wave thing or any other long term strategy. If you are this kind of trader you are going to be looking for the turn and plan to be the first to have an accumulation of contracts in whatever direction, Good strategy but you need a big bank to play this game, but returns are usually stellar when the market turns and heads in the direction you want. this is more of a bull thing. And you will inevitably end up holding long contracts on the way down waiting for that turn and adding more and more, when the turn comes you will be in the pound seats as your contracts will unwind into profits as the market goes up.

 

Second kind of trader is going with the flow. Look at the overall direction and base every bet on that until further notice. 

 

I used to be the the first kind of trader, now I follow the trend and make much more. I watch with horror that the people stuck in the bull way of thinking over commit to every little bounce the market makes and then follow that with a huge number of posts about how hard the squeeze is on the nether regions. it seems that every one wants to follow a very fine list of things that will indicate if we are going up or down. Take the last couple of days, history bit all of you in the arss because you all saw the rand going south and jumped in, because usually when the rand goes south we go up. so this time we did not go down because of anything we did but because of the Dollar strength, and that scenario makes us drop and not go up.

 

So i have tried this before and no one listened, lest offer advise again and see if it help someone.  

 

So the way i do it is this, i try and make 2 entries into the market every day with 1 contract each. so firstly whatever you did yesterday is yesterdays problem what you need to look at is do we keep yesterdays problems today. 

 

So my decision to stay in the direction or bail out only depends on one indicator the MACD. 

 

i start in the 10 min, I add to the direction (in this case down) if we are pointing down.

If we are bellow the zero line on the 30 min i keep what I had yesterday for another day. 

 

So when i need to get out i look at the following. 

 

on the 10 if the MACD has crossed convincingly in the opposite direction, no additional entries into the market. 

On the 30 i start to look for a turn, I don't take any action until this also crosses the lines and starts in the same direction as the 10. 

next day if the 10 is still pointed opposite to direction, and the 30 is as well, I dump the nearest 4 contracts that are in profit, and anything not in profit. 

My attention then goes to the 1 hour and 4 hour to see if a turn is warranted and to decide if i need to get out of all contracts. 

If i see the 10 min bounce off the 0 line and head back down in this case I STFR and it all starts again. 

 

this way you end up putting money in the bank about every 4 days (usually) and the oldest contracts grow to huge numbers if you manage to keep them, this gives you a nice profit when the market finally turns. 

 

I no longer care if the market is bull or bear, I don't get squeezed, I don't have losses above about 10 percent of all the trades. when I know the market is turning based on the 1 day MACD I scalp for a few days but always do the same things every morning and end up with the first long trade by default if the MACD rules are followed. Simple. 

 

Dont care about the S&P, DOW, Dollar, Politics, Crashes, Booms, Bears, Bulls, Comments, Waves, the SUN, The MOON, Cycles or any other information. I just read all that crap to pass the time and don't use a single thing to determine my trades. This is my KISS method at the simplest I can make it. It has taken 2 years to do this and I got the IDEA from reading in groups like this.

 

This takes all the pain out. Try it on paper first, then start making money.

 

G 

Thank you G for the beautiful insight.

On your MACD what do you use in your indicators or is it the standard one? 

Also is it the same for each time frame?

Edited by Polly, 10 March 2015 - 02:49 PM.

[Argento]

Well spotted there A!

 

You called this drop since last week

Thanks MP and B!

 

Taking my 700 points here...she is at her lower daily bollingerband so we should see an oversold bounce tomorrow to go and close this mornings gap...before the final downphase starts into next week!

 

A

[BlythZ]

I think from next week Bears should be in control, i think the drop might be +/- 2,000 pips. Will only start entering longs after this dip that is much anticipated

When i posted this we were around 47,105 and we are half way to my target of 2,000 pips. Boy this strategy needs a lot of patience. 

 

Well done A on keeping your shorts. 

[Motion Picture]

30min bearish cross approaching, so either this baby is going downtown later this afternoon or tomorrow morning, long time since I've seen a bull so difficult to let go!

 

A

 

Well spotted there A!

 

You called this drop since last week