35854 replies to this topic

[AJS]

Exit polls hints at win for Syriza.... I expect some red on the back of such results...

Hi AJS - any idea when results for this elections is made final ?- not just on exit votes

Not 100 sure, probably by tomorrow morning we will know for sure... Don't think it is enough to tip Eastern markets yet, but lets see how thr European markets react tomorrow.

[Plasma]

Exit polls suggest a historic victory for the anti-austerity Syriza party in Greece's general election.

The polls indicate that Syriza took between 36% and 38% of the total vote, with the ruling New Democracy party a distant second with 26%-28%.

It is unclear whether Syriza has enough votes to govern the country alone.

Syriza's Alexis Tsipras has pledged to renegotiate Greece's debt arrangement with international creditors.

He has also vowed to reverse many of the austerity measures adopted by Greece since a series of bailouts began in 2010.

The result is being closely watched outside Greece, where it is believed a Syriza victory could encourage radical leftist parties across Europe.

'Historic victory'
Syriza hailed the exit polls as "a return of social dignity and social justice".

"What's clear is we have a historic victory that sends a message that does not only concern the Greek people, but all European peoples," spokesman Panos Skourletis told Greek television.

[Moonraker]

They need 151 out of 300 seats to obtain an absolute majority. Exit polls show 146 - 158 seats.

[OceanWalz]

Exit polls hints at win for Syriza.... I expect some red on the back of such results...

Hi AJS - any idea when results for this elections is made final ?- not just on exit votes

[Moonraker]

Exit polls hints at win for Syriza.... I expect some red on the back of such results...

Yeah, they have it in the bag. Coalition partners won't be needed. Market reaction tomorrow will be 'exciting'.

 

 

Tsipras’s Coalition of the Radical Left, known by its Greek acronym, took between 35.5 percent and 39.5 percent compared with 23 percent to 27 percent for New Democracy in Sunday’s election, according to the exit poll on state-run Nerit TV. To Potami, a party formed less than a year ago that’s a potential Syriza coalition partner, tied for third place with the far-right Golden Dawn party on 6.4 percent to 8 percent.

The projected result may be enough for Syriza to govern without need of a coalition partner and hands Tsipras an overwhelming mandate to confront Greece’s program of austerity imposed in return for pledges of 240 billion euros ($269 billion) in aid since May 2010. The challenge for Tsipras is to strike a balance between keeping his election pledges including a writedown of Greek debt and avoiding what Samaras repeatedly warned was the risk of an accidental exit from the euro.

[AJS]

Exit polls hints at win for Syriza.... I expect some red on the back of such results...

[OceanWalz]

Maybe because if the leftist alliance Syriza wins, and they actually implement what they purport to stand for, namely debt forgiveness, no more austerity measures and other lefty stuff, the ECB will need to create/print even more new money** which will further weaken the € and make our exports to Euroland even more uncompetitive. 

If there is a Grexit from the EU (unlikely), Greece will be totally buggered.

 

** Or German & French taxpayers will be asked to cough up. 

 

(Be glad you are in ZA, the Russians are eyeing the baltic states, simulated attacks with nuclear capable TU-22 fighter jets, violations of air space etc. Reported in Spiegel German edition)

.. on the other hand, with a Greece exit of EC, which has low probability of happening, instead of all the doom gloom I think there is also a fair chance of a an up spike in markets soon after when they realize they have cut-loose their weakest member making the remaining whole stronger and then  Greece bonds declared Junk status and soon Greece declares insolvency (money loss implies creditors -EC - markets suffer but Greece starts afresh and build itself up quicker than if they remained in EC perhaps! 

[Moonraker]

Why is the greece elections so important for our market?

Maybe because if the leftist alliance Syriza wins, and they actually implement what they purport to stand for, namely debt forgiveness, no more austerity measures and other lefty stuff, the ECB will need to create/print even more new money** which will further weaken the € and make our exports to Euroland even more uncompetitive. 

If there is a Grexit from the EU (unlikely), Greece will be totally buggered.

 

** Or German & French taxpayers will be asked to cough up. 

 

(Be glad you are in ZA, the Russians are eyeing the baltic states, simulated attacks with nuclear capable TU-22 fighter jets, violations of air space etc. Reported in Spiegel German edition)

[vuilhond]

Why is the greece elections so important for our market?

[K~~]

Argento,<br />If tomorrow's Greek elections goes pear shaped, you can pack your golf gear so long, it's on me!

You probably made more han enough to cover all golf costs on that spike up after Draghi's announcement!

[OceanWalz]

If Syriza wins all austerity measures could come to an end. No more EU bail-out programmes.  Could get real messy.

when I look at the 25% general Greek Unemployment , made up of 50% youth employment , and youth normally leaning left ( "if your'e not a communist by 18 there is somethng wrong with you and if you are still one by 30 there is also something wrong with you!") - this augers the left party getting a good vote I think, but no outright win

[AJS]

If Syriza wins all austerity measures could come to an end. No more EU bail-out programmes.  Could get real messy.

[Beorn]

Argento,<br />If tomorrow's Greek elections goes pear shaped, you can pack your golf gear so long, it's on me!

[Kallie]

The banks may know something we don't, NedTrade has just increased their CFD margins on all the blue chip stocks from 10 percent to between 15 and 24 percent. the last time they did this was just before the 2008 crash. Do they have some insight into what is going to happen ?????????

 

G

Absolutely correct G and interesting, I used to work for Nedbank Capital, Nedbank wrote futures on Pinnacle, and ABSA, the ultimate clearing agent, ended up with a Golf Course - all because of a margin call and too little margin held by the bank - thus the bank had to foot the bill. This time they are bracing ahead of time for some volatility which we are going to have...and them some..

[grantmu]

I imagine they're reducing risk in current heightened volatility o market and thus of client accounts who sell out on panic and they have to carry loss if client cant pay margin call 

more volatility, will we see those 4 and 5 percent days again. 5 down the one day and 5 up the next, that was fun though. i just get the impression they see the same thing I see, there will be a drop and it will be big, when it will happen I cant tell yet.

 

but this bubble is different said the FED, HA HA HA 

[OceanWalz]

The banks may know something we don't, NedTrade has just increased their CFD margins on all the blue chip stocks from 10 percent to between 15 and 24 percent. the last time they did this was just before the 2008 crash. Do they have some insight into what is going to happen ?????????

 

G

I imagine they're reducing risk in current heightened volatility o market and thus of client accounts who sell out on panic and they have to carry loss if client cant pay margin call 

[grantmu]

The banks may know something we don't, NedTrade has just increased their CFD margins on all the blue chip stocks from 10 percent to between 15 and 24 percent. the last time they did this was just before the 2008 crash. Do they have some insight into what is going to happen ?????????

 

G

[Vertebrae]

P5 will commence as soon as P4 has been flushed.

 

But will P5 make it to a double top?

 

[Django]

P5 will commence as soon as P4 has been flushed.

Big move coming down and then up😉

[Vertebrae]

P5 will commence as soon as P4 has been flushed.