35854 replies to this topic

[Plasma]

For the Bears out there for Mercenary Trader.
Emerging markets are set to experience severe crisis as a rising dollar effectively imposes severe credit conditions and amplified default risk. Leveraged commodity producers, for example shale producers at the margins with too-high breakeven costs, will start to see their finances implode, effectively insolvent as cash flows fall below the ability to service loans. Whole countries will be in jeopardy. Russia is, in a word, screwed. The fallout goes on and on. Vicious feedback loops will replace previously existing virtuous ones. It is going to be a bloodbath. And there is no way to stop it.

Remember, again, the estimated size of the USD “carry trade” — yield-related investments exposed to rising dollar reversal — is measured in the trillions. There are institutional investors with massive, massive exposure via their overly aggressive allocations to emerging market investments, commodity producer debt, high yielding carry trade currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars, and so on…

Those inertia-driven institutional investors, giant herding beasts that they are, got themselves heavily over-exposed at the very top of the cycle, just as they always do. Just as always happens in every major market cycle. And now the great unwind is coming. And they will feel it full force, and be forced to withdraw, and their withdrawal will accelerate the pain trade as global conditions tighten further.

[bear catcher]

Vix charts long it is well done Beorn

[bear catcher]

Eish short!

[Argento]

bear catcher, on 13 Jan 2015 - 12:21 PM, said:

Well A I would rather be long than short if I look at things now , charts are getting bent atm,Hope for your sake market turns for yourt turn around tuesday

You don't want to be long trust me...VIX is high so markets are very volatile with big moves and is usually more bearish action than bullish!

 

Watch down below later this week....me thinks US going to sell off tonight!

 

A

[bear catcher]

Well A I would rather be long than short if I look at things now , charts are getting bent atm,Hope for your sake market turns for yourt turn around tuesday

[Argento]

bear catcher, on 13 Jan 2015 - 09:55 AM, said:

**** got out to early see rest of markets allso flying A are you keeping shorts or cutting?

If you know your charts bc you would know the answer to your question!

 

Well said REDorBLACK!

 

A

[REDorBLACK]

It was mentioned that it would be Zig-Zag down.... so no reason for alarm yet.

[bear catcher]

**** got out to early see rest of markets allso flying A are you keeping shorts or cutting?

[strydomk]

Too many shorts. Markets doing housecleaning.

[bear catcher]

Beorn must be loving this yip when everyone convinced of short Alsi allways shoots up! Nice lesson I learnt 400 points bagged

[REDorBLACK]

Sell the rally then....

[Argento]

Argento, on 13 Jan 2015 - 07:11 AM, said:

Yip...and staying short!

 

Got 3 black soldiers (candles) on the weeklies so trend is strong down!

 

Sell any rally!

 

A

Ok, here is the story!

 

TOP40 (Emerging markets) have been in a correction since September creating these legs down, now according to EW we have 5 legs and currently she is in her fith (impulsive) as mentioned before and per attached graph!

 

That 41400ish futures level held 3 times, believe the fourth test will break and with that the weekly 89 (green dotted line) too that should create a quick nasty drop!

 

Good money to be made here!

 

Once she bottoms should be a buying opportunity of a lifetime cause should see new highs again this year IMO!

 

21/22 Jan (ECB meeting + Greece elections) very important dates to keep in mind!

 

A

Attached Files

•  TOp40 (Correction).jpg   160.2KB   24 downloads

[Argento]

vuilhond, on 12 Jan 2015 - 3:47 PM, said:

Good call Argento.made close to 600 points shorting that bounce.you still short?

Yip...and staying short!

 

Got 3 black soldiers (candles) on the weeklies so trend is strong down!

 

Sell any rally!

 

A

[Motion Picture]

vuilhond, on 12 Jan 2015 - 3:47 PM, said:

Good call Argento.made close to 600 points shorting that bounce.you still short?

 

It's that new crystal ball Argento got for Christmas

[vuilhond]

Good call Argento.made close to 600 points shorting that bounce.you still short?

[warnerbroers]

Argento, on 12 Jan 2015 - 3:18 PM, said:

39650ish futures IMO!

 

A

nice 

[Argento]

warnerbroers, on 12 Jan 2015 - 3:15 PM, said:

Hey A, whats your target for the 5th wave? thx.

39650ish futures IMO!

 

A

[warnerbroers]

Argento, on 12 Jan 2015 - 2:05 PM, said:

You never know when the next red wave hits so best be in it to catch it!   

 

If short sit tight...lots more downside coming in this 5th wave!

 

A

Hey A, whats your target for the 5th wave? thx.

[Motion Picture]

Argento, on 12 Jan 2015 - 09:00 AM, said:

Yip but should stay around these levels (slightly higher) today before dropping again tomorrow morning...Monday's normally against the main trend (down)!

 

A

 

talk of wrongly right

[Argento]

REDorBLACK, on 12 Jan 2015 - 1:56 PM, said:

 

Smiling already...    

You never know when the next red wave hits so best be in it to catch it!   

 

If short sit tight...lots more downside coming in this 5th wave!

 

A