35854 replies to this topic

[warnerbroers]

long 43750 (ig)...target 44450

[Motion Picture]

cometh the morning...cometh the dip

[Vertebrae]

Finishing touches...

 

[Plasma]

Below some perspectives to feed hungry bears.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The following is excerpted from our December 2nd Live Feed commentary. The Live Feed broadcasts every trading day prior to market open — with trading setups and charts, real-time executions, and more.<br /><br />The S&P just came off a record-breaking run. The last comparable run of this kind was 1928.<br /><br />A fascinating observation, via Jonathan Krinsky at MKM partners and Zero Hedge.<br /><br />After the October V-bottom, the S&P managed to close above its 5 day moving average for 29 straight trading days (see chart below).<br /><br />That’s an all-time record breaker. The last comparable streak of this kind was 27 trading days — in 1928.<br /><br />These markets are not normal. These markets are not healthy. These markets are not giving a green light to complacent chilled-out bullishness.<br /><br />It is, in fact, the opposite. Traders with a grasp of market history understand what is happening.<br /><br />We are picking up warning signs galore — the kind of things that happen in twilight, near the very end of epic market runs…<br /><br /><br />click for full size<br />Volume spikes and outlier price runs are like bookends — they mark the beginning of things or the end of things.<br /><br />When you see a major volume surge — a major spike in buying or selling activity relative to the baseline average, coupled with volatility expansion — the market is telling you something.<br /><br />A volume surge paired with volatility expansion (a larger price bar than normal) often speaks to a major shift… a change in the tides.<br /><br />This makes perfect sense from a conceptual standpoint.<br /><br />All of a sudden there is lots of activity, relative to what existed before, and the market simultaneously moves aggressively (again relative to previous movement).<br /><br />Why? What is the motivation for this?<br /><br />It could be a new piece of information… a change of collective perspective… or a “blow-off” instance of euphoria or pessimism where the dominant emotion of the time is violently embraced, in a last hurrah of sorts that clears the way for sea change.<br /><br />The logic of this is NOT chart-based hocus pocus. It is not saying “Oh, the rickshaw man doji is in the seventh house.” Instead, it is using the chart as a form of abstract data representation to tell you, quickly and clearly, SOMETHING IS HAPPENING. It is then the trader’s job to find out what, or try to get a grasp on what.<br /><br />That is why volume surges can mark beginnings OR endings. They are not 100% reliable for this — more like a market “tell” — but the information is useful in terms of saying “something big may have changed here.”<br /><br />The same concepts apply to outlier price runs — when a market gets extremely extended, closing above or below its 5 DMA for a very long stretch of time.<br /><br />And again, this can represent beginning OR ending. Depending on the context.<br /><br />The Dow Transports are confirming the big “Uh-Oh” of high yield debt collapse.<br /><br />Here is another extremely worrisome sign (for bulls).<br /><br />The transports got whacked on Monday in a major way — giving up weeks worth of gains, in one big drop, on expanded volatility and volume.<br /><br />In concert with the S&P breaking its longest 5 DMA streak ever — the last comparable in 1928 — that is muy, muy no bueno.<br /><br /><br />click for full size<br />The month of December is kicking off ominously…<br /><br />All of this danger is compounded by the fact that 1) oil prices are low and 2) US consumers are supposed to be powering Wall Street optimism, and 3) December is supposed to be a seasonably favorable month.<br /><br />Consider all this bullish ammo:<br /><br />Gasoline prices at the pump are at multi-year lows (and showing sign of staying there).<br />Consumers are supposed to be upping their spending and prepping for a big Christmas.<br />December is a seasonably favorable month for equities.<br />This is the time when money managers are supposed to be playing end-of-year ramp-up.<br />The market is supposed to be getting “year 3″ tailwinds from the presidential cycle.<br />With all of that, you would think the first trading day of December would favor the bulls.<br /><br />The fact we are getting a big old “NOPE” should further be telling us something…<br /><br />~~~~~~~<br /><br /><br />

[gannet]

It worked out nicely ja thanks.

 

Forever a student.

 

Adapt or die.

 

Beorn -  I think you were the only one to call the short. Well done!

 

For some reason I missed it. I think we should now follow Argento to a 15 - 19 Dec high

 

Mid March should also be significant ... but I'm not sure if it will be a high (probably) or a low (possibly)

[Beorn]

Well done Beorn...it takes a real trader to acknowledge wrong calls. After all, we're all students here!

 

And we all know you milked it on that short of yours this past days.

 

It worked out nicely ja thanks.

 

Forever a student.

 

Adapt or die.

[Motion Picture]

Jip, and I got hammered!

 

Stops saved most of profit, luckely.

 

Well done Beorn...it takes a real trader to acknowledge wrong calls. After all, we're all students here!

 

And we all know you milked it on that short of yours this past days.

[Beorn]

hammers be hammering....

 

Jip, and I got hammered!

 

Stops saved most of profit, luckely.

[Vertebrae]

With seasonals now turning bullish and those strong reversal hammer candles I doubt she is going to continue down V...!

 

A

 

Maybe my chart is back to front, but here is a more eloquent way of putting it... http://solarcycles.n.../02/happenings/

[Argento]

Chart appears to have been chewed by a pack of rabid Banksters

Maybe it should be played on the zither

Nonetheless (IMO) price action is too extensive for anything less than Primary IV

and that puts it in Major C as we were, which would hurry on more if not stalked, harrassed and abused so much

So hold on tight or sit on a bench

With seasonals now turning bullish and those strong reversal hammer candles I doubt she is going to continue down V...!

 

A

[Vertebrae]

Chart appears to have been chewed by a pack of rabid Banksters

Maybe it should be played on the zither

Nonetheless (IMO) price action is too extensive for anything less than Primary IV

and that puts it in Major C as we were, which would hurry on more if not stalked, harrassed and abused so much

So hold on tight or sit on a bench

 

[Motion Picture]

even Mhlato's hour thingy is turning up

[REDorBLACK]

Going to be rendered inert by tomorrow's candle.

 

The slide continues tomorrow. 

 

IMO

 

hammers be hammering....

[Motion Picture]

may the British souls bring some extra voooma to the bull

[Argento]

Yesterday's drop was just nasty but see a few huge reversal candles on heavy weights so I'm still bullish into Q1 2015!

 

My take we are in Intermediate V of Major 5 of Primary III still with minor 2 (double top pattern) that bottomed yesterday!

 

IMO!

 

A

[gamma]

S&P technicals suggest another 30-40 point drop to the september highs before santa rally kicks in

[Vertebrae]

Pick a number, any number...

 

[Plasma]

Another expensive lesson today. Traded a warrant without a stop facility. Assumed that market would not fall much further after opening and had a meeting without any concerns. Well, warrant knocked out and R19k gone.

[Vertebrae]

Sing in stereo...

 

 

 

Check this out (beforehand)

 

http://tinyurl.com/m9lntcz

 

[Vertebrae]

May I differentiate....

 

 

Silver threads among the gold

My cup runneth over