35854 replies to this topic

[Mostlya]

Could someone please explain to us why the ZAR is getting stronger...
Because if we are to be downgraded surely it would weaken...
Damn market is not stupid...
Like me..

Fundamentally in terms of interest rate and inflation differentials the Rand is undervalued. That brings a certain desire to buy. Secondly our bond yields are very attractive especially with the undervalued Rand. Another set of buyers comes in.

Third point is subjective but there's a case for a primary wave C that may have begun. What makes me believe this is the Rand tends to revert to or near the 200 monthly MA after it's spiked a huge amount like it did at the end of 2015. Various other technical factors too.

The narrative is always good for writing articles because fear sells but mean reversion and equilibrium are part in parcel with market psychology. Couple that with extreme short positioning and things start to unwind in that unexpected fashion.

For the Alsi though all that matters is that insane Naspers to which people have herded and has contributed to almost all the move up in this Alsi this year. No doubt we'll refer to it as a bubble in years to come.

[Snippit]

Could someone please explain to us why the ZAR is getting stronger...

Because if we are to be downgraded surely it would weaken...

Damn market is not stupid...

Like me..

 

Its just the omnipotence of the FED and the apparent uncertainty about rate  increasing whilst inflation target not achievable.

Hence sell $US. That is happening in the real world where the $US lives. In the banana world there is nothing worth the time day happening for the rest of the world to give 20 seconds of chit chat about.

Meanwhile the chart shows corrective wave (ii) is making good progress in the early bull phase for the $US index.

This would indicate that either US inflation will now come right or the FED will increase rates regardless again.

[Halfday]

Could someone please explain to us why the ZAR is getting stronger...

Because if we are to be downgraded surely it would weaken...

Damn market is not stupid...

Like me..

[Snippit]

Minor wave (iv) targets 54700 on T40 futures

[Snippit]

Surf's Up...

[Mostlya]

And a hedge against downturn in the global economy which it would seem is finally around the corner. A small price to pay

[Mostlya]

I continue to hold a small futures short. Only 4 ALMIs for now. If the index pops higher than no big loss. If it moves lower I will add to it continuously until we see 28 500 on cash.

Besides euphoric FOMO buying into Naspers or possible euphoria over some kind of ANC conference result I don't see anything but crash written all over it. The concentration risk is so immense it's blowing my mind.

I'm considering this a hedge against the South African economy which is going to be hit hard when this corrects. Sa government pension fund is invested 49% of total assets in the JSE. You know all the other pension funds and insurance companies are too. Very worried about the next few years here.

No bailouts here. Massive budget deficiet that's fixing to get worse. I'm sure the immediate thought is the Rand will get weaker but it won't. Too many sundry factors including simple fundamentals and long term wave counts that will cause a mean reversion and provide support.

This whole index is a trap and a natural hedging point in my view.

[Mostlya]

I continue to hold a small futures short. Only 4 ALMIs for now. If the index pops higher than no big loss. If it moves lower I will add to it continuously until we see 28 500 on cash.

Besides euphoric FOMO buying into Naspers or possible euphoria over some kind of ANC conference result I don't see anything but crash written all over it. The concentration risk is so immense it's blowing my mind.

I'm considering this a hedge against the South African economy which is going to be hit hard when this corrects. Sa government pension fund is invested 49% of total assets in the JSE. You know all the other pension funds and insurance companies are too. Very worried about the next few years here.

[Snippit]

Taunt away. At this point to be right as a bull would need to make an actual price prediction rather than just recount your waves if it doesn't work out. I await some actual price levels and predictions and trade information.

 

My role is to encourage self development in the essential of getting a handle of your own on market direction for longer than a few days. I don't do day trading instructions for groups of wild-eyed trampoline enthusiasts. Mainly because I seldom do any day trading. In any event you are then giving the brokers guidance on how to take clients money, which is their most enriching purpose in life. Playing the CFD game with (against) IG and their clandestine touts is no doubt fun while it lasts. It appears that few, probably none, survive any meaningful distance.

[Halfday]

Damn but the deck is stacked against the Bears...

 

Downgrading will weaken the ZAR which should take the ALSI up and up...

Swiss Central Bank buying shares to keep their Franc down...

China government will support their shares by buying the dip.. eg Tencent

Japanese government Pension Fund is selling rallies and buying dips...

FED probably playing the same game....

 

Snippit is right...

[Mostlya]

Bulls are geniuses 95% of the time. They taunting of the bears is a pastime most enjoyed near or at the top. Every single forum I follow has a string of bullish taunters who string together elloborate reasons why the market isn't only just warming up. Everything will forever be in a wave 3 of 3. The reasons range from cash on balance sheets to amazing future economic prospects all the way to the fact that 3 people on a forum think the market will go down and will forever be squeezed.

Taunt away. At this point to be right as a bull would need to make an actual price prediction rather than just recount your waves if it doesn't work out. I await some actual price levels and predictions and trade information.

[Snippit]

Even the RAFI corroborates that the end is nigh. The end of wave ii within wave (iii) of wave 3 that is.

https://jsecharts.blogspot.co.za/

This is the prime period of the bull and its big business burying bears.

[Mostlya]

I don't see anything but Tencent mattering anymore. The only true driver of JSE movements. The Jse has let this get way out of control and have created a very dangerous scenario for the index as a whole.

[diederjh]

It all depends on the rand now, imagine if it did not strengthen over the last week and were still at 14.50

[Mostlya]

Double top or 57 000 cash? Extreme anxiety today on the Jse wrt to It. Last 10% higher has virtually only been Naspers with its 25% weighting. R4 000 was the insiders target this year for it.

Pivotal day here

[Snippit]

Central banksterism is a relatively new game where fiction is more credible than any fact for providing insight into the core and future of the new world order. Be prepared to discover that the future collateral base for fractional reserve will require that robots be legal citizens and be paid for their services so that taxes can still be collected after the human workforce has been disposed of. But I digress, first something quite mundane about how minor aspects of the new methodology of [category = previously considered too insane to contemplate] central bank behaviour and the yield curve...

 

http://tinyurl.com/ycz8uw5u

 

   

[Halfday]

Probably not a good sign of a healthy economy if China had to pump 800 Billion Yuan into their Banks , Companies ... whatever...

But the US, Japan etc liked that..

Suppose the Central Banks will keep doing this ...

 

Inflation has to be the result which will lead to lots of other consequences...

None will be good...

[Snippit]

Rand v reality chart indicates that reality is winning whilst the Rand looks to fall down its own long drop. Rand notes are turning yellow as the Republic goes full out mashini-wami bananas to re-elect the farmyard and transport the remaining bodies without wheels.

Meanwhile there is a song and dance for vegetabelarians with entrancing fee of twelvity.

Who would have ever thought that this could happen. No. Who would have ever thought.

Unsurprisingly, the movement to elect Mugabe as the new ANC president has been given the full support of the EFF and without any need to count votes or even to vote at all.Such efficiency makes the DA look broken by the demands of democracy, which is another thing that the vast majority will never be assisted to understand (the democracy not the broken).

Financial advancements include the moving of debt to the other column because this is an asset that we are growing.

The SARS will not collect any tax from last year to align everyone with the arrangements for special interest individuals and sponsors.

April 1st is to become a public holiday to celebrate national nonsense including corruption and amorality.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Snippit]

The doomsday crowd has been saying the end is near all year. Is it? No

 

[Mostlya]

Conclusion: You have no idea what I'm talking about. Good luck with your longs. See you on the other side.