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#1421 Snippit

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Posted 15 November 2017 - 08:45 AM

I would suggest having a look at the Dow industrial. It has a far better history of spotting euphoria and panic via wave counts and extensions.

 

dowvspx.png


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#1422 Snippit

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:27 PM

I would suggest having a look at the Dow industrial. It has a far better history of spotting euphoria and panic via wave counts and extensions. OK

Incidentally I see all equity indices in primary 5s now perhaps with the exception of Asian markets which could be showing signs of the dreaded bear market. Economics and fundamentals are important and they tie in with all waves that Elliot wave theory suggests and captures. I was seeing same until about 4 months after the 2016 resources bear ending. Then I accepted the inevitable cyclical bull and effects and that the correction was less than expected for a primary bear, but it was not P4. So I sided with Caldaro.

 

Simple psychology would suggest that this bull market hasn't been loved and it underlies the nature of a wave 5. This can be confirmed by momentum measures such as RSI across most equity indices and commodities. There is simply no growth left in the world economy due to demographics and technology. Growth will only resume once it has been reset and the world adjust to its new norm. First a pension fund crisis to get through and the associated drag it will cause of economic spending and growth. 

Intermediate 3 leads to Intermediate 4. The difference between higher order counts can take years to occur. Broad based desire for the end is what keeps it at bay.

 

I really appreciate you putting your neck on the line and posting all your viewpoints. I obviously hope I'm more correct but if you're correct about us being in a primary wave 3 then the price embedded in stocks won't just be more than anytime in history but rather multiples of it. I would suggest an economic ice age to follow if it does get there.

Primary 5 should end by 2035. Then the megapiper will be paid or else it will be play it gain Fed for another no risk ride (for the megapiper).

 

I don't truly believe the Fed control asset prices. All those low rates and liquidity have done is speed us forward in economic time. The market would've moved a lot slower and been a lot healthier without it and being bullish at this point probably would've made more sense. Anyway as always only time will truly tell. 

Many movers and shakers have enjoyed the no risk ride. Opinions can be encouraged or discouraged.  It depends what tune the megapiper chooses to play along the road to gigapower.

 

I believe the Dow topped at 23 600. All counts and extensions would suggest this to be the case. S&P won't move higher without the Dow. Not 100% correlated but certainly very close. I can definitely see 2 800 as top for the S&P though so it might not be done yet.

I believe that the real power will never again belong to the people and that the vast majority will be systematically disposed of. But what do I know?  


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  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
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#1423 Mostlya

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 05:24 PM

Tell it to the FED...

The SPX is now at minuette wave iv) within minute wave iii of minor wave (v) of Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave 3. This index has been domesticated by the FED and their market controlling agents. The lack of normal price variation and volatility is amazing. The markets have never been like this ever before. It is unnerving to a large number of potential and actual participants. Minor wave (v) has extended.  Since minor wave (iii) is larger than Minor wave (i) then there is no limitation placed on the eventual size of minor wave (v) and the present little correction could turn out to be for the purpose of further extension.

 

SPX-d-131117.png

I would suggest having a look at the Dow industrial. It has a far better history of spotting euphoria and panic via wave counts and extensions. Incidentally I see all equity indices in primary 5s now perhaps with the exception of Asian markets which could be showing signs of the dreaded bear market. Economics and fundamentals are important and they tie in with all waves that Elliot wave theory suggests and captures.  

 

Simple psychology would suggest that this bull market hasn't been loved and it underlies the nature of a wave 5. This can be confirmed by momentum measures such as RSI across most equity indices and commodities. There is simply no growth left in the world economy due to demographics and technology. Growth will only resume once it has been reset and the world adjust to its new norm. First a pension fund crisis to get through and the associated drag it will cause of economic spending and growth.  

 

I really appreciate you putting your neck on the line and posting all your viewpoints. I obviously hope I'm more correct but if you're correct about us being in a primary wave 3 then the price embedded in stocks won't just be more than anytime in history but rather multiples of it. I would suggest an economic ice age to follow if it does get there.  

 

I don't truly believe the Fed control asset prices. All those low rates and liquidity have done is speed us forward in economic time. The market would've moved a lot slower and been a lot healthier without it and being bullish at this point probably would've made more sense. Anyway as always only time will truly tell. 

 

I believe the Dow topped at 23 600. All counts and extensions would suggest this to be the case. S&P won't move higher without the Dow. Not 100% correlated but certainly very close. I can definitely see 2 800 as top for the S&P though so it might not be done yet.   


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#1424 Snippit

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 04:22 PM

Tell it to the FED...

The SPX is now at minuette wave iv) within minute wave iii of minor wave (v) of Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave 3. This index has been domesticated by the FED and their market controlling agents. The lack of normal price variation and volatility is amazing. The markets have never been like this ever before. It is unnerving to a large number of potential and actual participants. Minor wave (v) has extended.  Since minor wave (iii) is larger than Minor wave (i) then there is no limitation placed on the eventual size of minor wave (v) and the present little correction could turn out to be for the purpose of further extension.

 

SPX-d-131117.png


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  1. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  2. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
  4. Learning links: http://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/trader-links.html

 


#1425 Mostlya

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 10:42 AM

A market which cannot sell is fragile. Wave counts should be used in conjunction with fundamental considerations to pockets of pressure. Simple economics dictate there is a crisis around the corner.

The traps are clear to see as the euphoric disregard for market cycles takes hold. These considerations link into long term wave counts with perfection. Each equity index is reaching its final stretching point of a 35 year bull run while commodities are establishing themselves into a solid bear market as China begins to lose steam and America has reached full economic potential for this cycle.

The Rand cannot hold up this index. Long term correlations are weak and while intraday they appear obvious ultimately it causes selling if there is global equity pressure.

November is a choppy month. Potential for the so called distribution to occur. December has complacency and panic written all over it.
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#1426 Snippit

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:51 AM

The DAX has a minor (iv) to contend with...

 

dax-w-131117.png


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  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
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#1427 Snippit

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 11:32 PM

The shareholder weighted ALSI looks for confirmation of the minute wave 4 in progress...being the 2nd one in the complex extending of the minor 3 wave...

 

swix-240-111117.png


Edited by Snippit, 12 November 2017 - 11:36 PM.

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  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
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#1428 Snippit

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 05:07 PM

I tried to call the dip last year and missed it, I'm not touching the Alsi anymore, I still feel it's 40% overvalued.
 

 

Did you just call to say your not interested? Of course not.

Here are some quite ordinary words (that may even plant a microbial speck of a seed of inspiration that may one day take root and achieve spectacular growth...)

If at first... and the other one ala Einstein on the definition of insanity - there are many renowned words of wisdom floating freely about right under our nostrils.

We should perhaps take an occasional moment and smell something different sometimes (smell not snort).

Your feelings are similar to everyone's in that they are caused by emotions.

The Elliott theory takes measures to evaluate this amorphous variable that at times causes humans to behave in crowds like flocks of certain bird species when in flight. The pattern and its related cycle are as evident now as always. Pattern recognition requires awareness of a few rules and guidelines; also a related cognitive skill that improves with non-casual usage. A little guidance can accelerate application along the road to independent thinking and even walking on two legs.

Information relating to this pattern recognition can be not only liberating but also empowering for those who seek a hand in their own destiny and where the cost is measured only in time for related learning, the material for which is freely available across the internet.

Just like the more popular tools in technical analysis, it refuses to go away even though it has periods of value and periods of some confusion.

Which it also predicts.


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  1. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  2. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
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#1429 Guest_PlatinumWealth.co.za_*

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 11:47 AM

I tried to call the dip last year and missed it, I'm not touching the Alsi anymore, I still feel it's 40% overvalued.

Every highly active, liquid and freely traded instrument that enjoys numerous and diverse human trading will reflect patterns of predictable human flock behavior. All we need do is learn to recognize.
 
 
ALSI%2B3yr.png


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#1430 Snippit

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 05:30 AM

Every highly active, liquid and freely traded instrument that enjoys numerous and diverse human trading will reflect patterns of predictable human flock behavior. All we need do is learn to recognize.

 

 

ALSI%2B3yr.png


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  1. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  2. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
  4. Learning links: http://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/trader-links.html

 


#1431 Snippit

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 11:07 AM

My alternate wave count does indeed have this as the start of wave 4 (muted or shallow as an alternate to the deep wave 2) which would mean a target of 62000 at least. Highly unlikely in the short term 3-4 months but still on track on my higher wave counts for next year. This alternate wave count would mean that higher order and lower order waves is in the same same wave count 4 and this is unlikely. So I will stick to my main view that this was wave 5 and corrective wave to follow a ( double top at 54187 and corrective b to 54400 (favoured) before c zig zag to 47000 overshoot

 

Which index are you referencing? The futures are often unsuitable for wave counting. If this is the 4th minute then we are a few steps ahead the SPX. Then it is the (minute) 5th dimension that will bring improved clarity into the crystal. Good churnings for day traders now apparent.


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  1. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  2. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
  4. Learning links: http://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/trader-links.html

 


#1432 TellyTubby

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 10:36 PM

Good call indeed. This has been a lonely location for the less popular viewpoint,
In consideration of the impending bear trend viewpoint...
From the 2016 low the action has been either a correction or a bull cycle. Correction would imply that the resources bear cycle is incomplete and has taken a 2 year corrective rally, which is quite feasible from those original starting levels when assuming a deflationary prognosis. But the ALSI enjoys ATH territory and would hardly be correcting in an ongoing bear cycle from here. So for the ALSI the last 2 years would be the final wave of the bull cycle. But my search for supporting evidence in the charts is without success. Even when I employ self-discipline so as to avoid confirmation bias it is the same result. Too many confirmed wave endings refute the viewpoint.
So for me and maybe me alone this time, the bull will see some muted 4th wave corrections from here as it finds its way to the 5th Intermediate and then impulsively beyond whilst the USD v ZAR will see a Rand that weakens at more than twice the pace of dollar strengthening which will push the ALSI into the global top performer class as measured in monopoly money.


My alternate wave count does indeed have this as the start of wave 4 (muted or shallow as an alternate to the deep wave 2) which would mean a target of 62000 at least. Highly unlikely in the short term 3-4 months but still on track on my higher wave counts for next year. This alternate wave count would mean that higher order and lower order waves is in the same same wave count 4 and this is unlikely. So I will stick to my main view that this was wave 5 and corrective wave to follow a ( double top at 54187 and corrective b to 54400 (favoured) before c zig zag to 47000 overshoot
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#1433 Snippit

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 02:31 PM

Was this  the most confusing rally ever? except everyone was bemoaning the fact that the previous 2 years has been sideways,,,but we broke through the consolidation there was only one way and that was up..

 

Good call indeed. This has been a lonely location for the less popular viewpoint,

In consideration of the impending bear trend viewpoint...

From the 2016 low the action has been either a correction or a bull cycle. Correction would imply that the resources bear cycle is incomplete and has taken a 2 year corrective rally, which is quite feasible from those original starting levels when assuming a deflationary prognosis. But the ALSI enjoys ATH territory and would hardly be correcting in an ongoing bear cycle from here. So for the ALSI the last 2 years would be the final wave of the bull cycle.  But my search for supporting evidence in the charts is without success. Even when I employ self-discipline so as to avoid confirmation bias it is the same result. Too many confirmed wave endings refute the viewpoint.

So for me and maybe me alone this time, the bull will see some muted 4th wave corrections from here as it finds its way to the 5th Intermediate and then impulsively beyond whilst the USD v ZAR will see a Rand that weakens at more than twice the pace of dollar strengthening which will push the ALSI into the global top performer class as measured in monopoly money. 


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  1. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  2. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
  4. Learning links: http://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/trader-links.html

 


#1434 Polly

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 11:28 AM

target for breakout is 57000
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#1435 Mostlya

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 11:26 AM

Was this  the most confusing rally ever? except everyone was bemoaning the fact that the previous 2 years has been sideways,,,but we broke through the consolidation there was only one way and that was up..

Amazing calls well done. Are you using Elliot wave for your counts. I understand now what you were getting at and I'm in complete agreement with this being the final run.


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#1436 TellyTubby

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 10:38 PM

Not a market top by a lonnggg shot..but we will see some profit taking to say 46000 before the grind to a new high occurs..and it will be a slow grind..not impulsive like the past 30 days...Its gonna be frustrating and confusing..but the bull is alive and kicking...but this is gonna be his last kick

Was this  the most confusing rally ever? except everyone was bemoaning the fact that the previous 2 years has been sideways,,,but we broke through the consolidation there was only one way and that was up..


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#1437 TellyTubby

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 10:35 PM

Definately panic selling today...often happens at market bottoms....I see today as a major low..have next count to 51847 and year end count to 54157

Year end came alot sooner than anticipated...So now that we have hit the mark, it only leaves gold to go down to 1215 the  christmas rally cancelled or inverted and lots of pain to come


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#1438 TellyTubby

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 10:35 PM

Definately panic selling today...often happens at market bottoms....I see today as a major low..have next count to 51847 and year end count to 54157

Year end came alot sooner than anticipated...So now that we have hit the mark, it only leaves gold to go down to 1215 the  christmas rally cancelled or inverted and lots of pain to come


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#1439 Snippit

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Posted 05 November 2017 - 04:26 PM

For the SPX (in unmodified Elliott terminology) Caldaro is looking for the 5th minuette wave of the 3rd minute wave of the 5th minor wave of the 1st Intermediate wave of the new bull trend of Primary III to complete. The impending correction should thereby be the 4th minute wave. Minute 2 was 46 points. Caldaro expects over 50 points for the 4th

For the ALSI the extension of each future motive wave combined with muted corrections would align with a spirally collapsing Rand and crippling civil disorder as fomented for decades already by the intentionally criminal snowballing of increasingly dysfunctional governance across the board for the purpose of broad based economic sabotage in the first degree. This is no ordinary collapse of governance – it is orchestrated by pure greed for the benefit of the monstrous greedy and their ilk and assisted by a failure of a legal system that will be permanently overloaded with endless delay and prevention tactics until 3 decades beyond the grave.

It all started with a constitutional experiment of proportional representation which allowed for hijacking by mafia style operatives. There can be no fix until this experiment is evaluated, analysed and repaired by being fitted with checks and balances to render it safe and fit for democratic purpose rather than the ongoing re-installation of mafia style dictatorships.


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  1. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  2. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
  4. Learning links: http://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/trader-links.html

 


#1440 Halfday

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Posted 04 November 2017 - 06:18 PM

S+P500 made a double top on the hourly...

Nasdaq squeaked a little higher...

Russel 2000 definitely down from Nov 1 high...

Whats next???


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