35854 replies to this topic

[Mostlya]

Thanks Snippit. I just wonder what effect extreme amounts of debt have had on contracting those cycles. Economic growth cycles took longer to complete in the past. Everything has been moved up a notch into hyperdrive. Question would remain whether the crisis stage has actually completed assuming everything is accurate here. The previous start of the crisis phase followed a virtual collapse of the stock market and the economy. They believe the crisis phase is over but there was only a mild collapse on both fronts. If this were to continue without a further collapse what would happen to valuations? A real reset would certainly have me very interested in the saeculum theory.

The other thing I wonder is what it looked like for the previous cycle. We can only really see one cycle here. One cycle surely does not make it a recurring event?

Interesting to see how it all plays out over time.

Also don't really like assigning definite time stamps to cycles. They play out continuously but certainly aren't slaves to time

[Mostlya]

The Caldaro entity gave the Dow Industrials front stage treatment in weekend update..viz... https://caldaro.word...end-update-627/

Summarised prognosis is long term and medium term = uptrend, short term = a small pullback.Check that saeculum theory - and P3 commencement. Sure the initial part of the big wave can be a grinder, but survive that to get a clear ride is what its all about.

At the fiddle faddle level you can purchase Caldaro membership to exclusive material about the fiddle faddle. Your choice. But if you tell a secret to an outsider then you will be set upon by CIA trained Nazi sympathisers, without any mercy, humanity, animal survival instincts or other defocussing or interactive brain functionality. The masochistic rules of pay up and kiss these feet or else has never really attracted me, but there are plenty of takers out there. Now that is more scary than nightmares about alien abduction. Or even George Soros ensuring no more Hitlers by destroying the planet. Oops.

Thanks Snippit. I just wonder what effect extreme amounts of debt have had on contracting those cycles. Economic growth cycles took longer to complete in the past. Everything has been moved up a notch into hyperdrive. Question would remain whether the crisis stage has actually completed assuming everything is accurate here. The previous start of the crisis phase followed a virtual collapse of the stock market and the economy. They believe the crisis phase is over but there was only a mild collapse on both fronts. If this were to continue without a further collapse what would happen to valuations? A real reset would certainly have me very interested in the saeculum theory.

 

The other thing I wonder is what it looked like for the previous cycle. We can only really see one cycle here. One cycle surely does not make it a recurring event?

 

Interesting to see how it all plays out over time.

[Snippit]

Couldn't bring myself to listen to a word. Not even sure why they even bother with all this official nonsense. They should just allocate budget to themselves and be done with it. Privatise all the SOEs and we can just pay our tax to our royals and associated minions directly.

 

On the trading side I've got my eye on the Dow industrial. It's the first index to really show signs of properly toping globally. I think it's an interesting index psychologically because it's price weighted. The more euphoria surrounding shares on the index owing to past performance reflected in their price (as is always the case with people) the higher it shoots up. Price weighted index could possibly give a better reading on euphoria. The wave counts on it going back 35 years are astoundingly precise when evaluating them with Fib extensions (with a specific focus on 61.8% extensions and retraces). Check it out if you haven't already. The implications for those wave counts does not bode well for future returns in the stock market over the next decade. Counts or at least extensions thereof put top in a range  23 250 to 23 650. Let's see if mass psychology will play the world for a fool again.

 

Question will be whether central banks will try and bail out stock markets. I just wonder whether they must have lost too much credibility to really effect a proper turnaround.

 

Jse however just loves this Rand weakness. Doesn't give it the push it used to but still quite effective in getting people to jump in.   

 

The Caldaro entity gave the Dow Industrials front stage treatment in weekend update..viz... https://caldaro.word...end-update-627/

Summarised prognosis is long term and medium term = uptrend, short term = a small pullback.Check that saeculum theory - and P3 commencement. Sure the initial part of the big wave can be a grinder, but survive that to get a clear ride is what its all about.

At the fiddle faddle level you can purchase Caldaro membership to exclusive material about the fiddle faddle. Your choice. But if you tell a secret to an outsider then you will be set upon by CIA trained Nazi sympathisers, without any mercy, humanity, animal survival instincts or other defocussing or interactive brain functionality. The masochistic rules of pay up and kiss these feet or else has never really attracted me, but there are plenty of takers out there. Now that is more scary than nightmares about alien abduction. Or even George Soros ensuring no more Hitlers by destroying the planet. Oops.

[Mostlya]

Jee that new guy can talk! I shall annoint him Gigamouth. See how he talked the Rand into a coma!

Couldn't bring myself to listen to a word. Not even sure why they even bother with all this official nonsense. They should just allocate budget to themselves and be done with it. Privatise all the SOEs and we can just pay our tax to our royals and associated minions directly.

 

On the trading side I've got my eye on the Dow industrial. It's the first index to really show signs of properly toping globally. I think it's an interesting index psychologically because it's price weighted. The more euphoria surrounding shares on the index owing to past performance reflected in their price (as is always the case with people) the higher it shoots up. Price weighted index could possibly give a better reading on euphoria. The wave counts on it going back 35 years are astoundingly precise when evaluating them with Fib extensions (with a specific focus on 61.8% extensions and retraces). Check it out if you haven't already. The implications for those wave counts does not bode well for future returns in the stock market over the next decade. Counts or at least extensions thereof put top in a range  23 250 to 23 650. Let's see if mass psychology will play the world for a fool again.

 

Question will be whether central banks will try and bail out stock markets. I just wonder whether they must have lost too much credibility to really effect a proper turnaround.

 

Jse however just loves this Rand weakness. Doesn't give it the push it used to but still quite effective in getting people to jump in.   

[Snippit]

Jee that new guy can talk! I shall annoint him Gigamouth. See how he talked the Rand into a coma!

[Mostlya]

Starting to get interesting now perhaps? Fixed Income starting to look a little bit appealing again.

[Snippit]

Cash top 40 shows a similar pennant

 

Beware - a negative divergence on hourly developed ahead of the pennant, same thing with DAX which also has a daily divergence..

[Mostlya]

SWIX shows pennant whilst futures shows a dogs breakfast viz:

 

Cash top 40 shows a similar pennant

[Snippit]

SWIX shows pennant whilst futures shows a dogs breakfast viz:

 

[Mostlya]

For Tencent a correction is due, but anything more than a visit to previous lower order wave 4 would not be typical.

The fear of a general end of bull cycle may well get more legs and progress into a test of the manipulative systems that are now not just place but deeply entrenched. Presently I see the mid primary 3 take is at least equally compelling. Going through year end should shed more light.

 

Thanks for that. Tencent and it's laggard Naspers will forever remain a mystery to me. I guess when it's all said and done it'll more likely than not be written off to bubble euphoria and reasonable wave counts and trading can resume. They're obviously both high beta type of investments so I would expect a severe correction.

 

We'll lump it together with Bitcoin and send it down the Amazon to be washed up somewhere one day.

[Snippit]

Tony Ma owner of Tencent sold 6 million of his shares...

 

For Tencent a correction is due, but anything more than a visit to previous lower order wave 4 would not be typical.

The fear of a general end of bull cycle may well get more legs and progress into a test of the manipulative systems that are now not just place but deeply entrenched. Presently I see the mid primary 3 take is at least equally compelling. Going through year end should shed more light.

 

[Halfday]

Chinese giving Tencent a solid one and with the stronger ZAR down we go...

But why is Tencent falling???

Tony Ma owner of Tencent sold 6 million of his shares...

[Halfday]

Chinese giving Tencent a solid one and with the stronger ZAR down we go...

But why is Tencent falling???

OK,,, all the indices are falling because its the 30 year anniversary of the DOW crash...

Traders are a superstitious  bunch..

But better safe than sorry...

[Halfday]

Chinese giving Tencent a solid one and with the stronger ZAR down we go...

But why is Tencent falling???

[Mostlya]

So 51 500 Cash = 1.25 of potential Wave A. The implication would be a double irregular correction which is rare and seemingly impossible. Throwing this consideration into the pot. Wave 5 ends on July 2014 as a perfect 1.618 extension of Wave 3 (completing at the beginning of the last financial crisis). A then finds itself as an irregular ABC completing in August 2015 with B also irregular and very complex running for over 2 years now.

 

The entire structure is just one long set of traps where bulls and bears can't get a break. Time will tell if this last run up is the biggest trap of all or whether the sideways movement experienced over the last couple of years is simply a complex mid wave correction (as noted by Snippit) which would mean this bull should still have legs.

 

All the same 51 500 is the key level and the market seems to have respected this notion which is quite amazing considering how arbitrary and rare a double irregular correction is. It's been said that confirmation of Wave C is only found once 0.75% or so of wave A is completed. That would effectively mean the 200 weekly MA would come into play and would likely serve as this confirmation barrier. Thereafter it would complete either a 1.618 or 2.618 extension of Wave A. As it stands that would likely take it to the 100 Monthly MA and 200 Monthly MA respectively. 

 

2.618 of Wave A would also represent a 61.8% retracement of wave 5 which is the same retracement that wave 1 and wave 3 went through in this run up since 1998.

 

All of this is layered with confirmation basis and is really only a general scenario upon which to short but fundamental obviously confirm as well as momentum divergences as evidenced via monthly RSI. There are plenty of other Elliot wave type confirmations indicators about including the 4.236 extension of wave 3 from wave 1 etc. Too many to list.

 

I'd post a chart but honestly there's too much info here to capture on a single chart. It is a mess when dealing with 19 years of action but something worth looking at I think.

[Snippit]

Some said 'Don't fight the FED' and they never stopped saying it...

[Snippit]

AIERA is an AI robot share analyst developed by Wells Fargo and Amazon to track shares and then to make BUY,HOLD or SELL reccomendations on a daily or weekly view...

Found it so funny that "She " placed a SELL rating on Facebook and Google and HOLD on 11 other top US stocks...

Contrary to 80-90% of the human analysts that have BUY ratings on all these stocks...

 

It will be even more funny if "She" is right in the next week!!!

 

Just watched Max Keiser explain that human greed & stupidity (grupdidty?) has triggered mass economical suicide and Bitcoin is the first indication of algorithmic collusion between AI capable machines. Once the banking system is crippled it will move on and proliferate faster than organic creatures can think and strip them of their essential assets such as power, communication and defence systems. I think the only solution will be to bombard the planet with magnetic impulses to destroy these man made aliens, even if it means destroying the concept of ownership and wealth and greed and power and corruption and subservience. But first there needs to be a shortage of ammo.

[Halfday]

AIERA is an AI robot share analyst developed by Wells Fargo and Amazon to track shares and then to make BUY,HOLD or SELL reccomendations on a daily or weekly view...

Found it so funny that "She " placed a SELL rating on Facebook and Google and HOLD on 11 other top US stocks...

Contrary to 80-90% of the human analysts that have BUY ratings on all these stocks...

 

It will be even more funny if "She" is right in the next week!!!

[Mostlya]

Definitely a lot clearer on the Swix than the Top 40. Thank for having a look at the monthly.

Edited by Mostlya, 11 October 2017 - 07:52 PM.

[Snippit]

If the swix is considered then there is a similar size between P2 and P4 here below, and when P4 includes the 1-2 there appears to be alternation betweenn them also. Then the 3rd breaks down into the bull 1,2 and start of 3 within P5. The only problem is the impulsive nature of the included 1st wave... so alternation is an issue and the only way around it is to declare the a-b-c of P4 a mid-wave correction within P3 and then hope for alternation with P2 when the real P4 arrives..

 

Edited by Snippit, 11 October 2017 - 05:33 PM.