35854 replies to this topic

[Mostlya]

I see a big picture like none before it and due entirely to global interventionism in markets which is the driver like none before it. There is no comfortable way back to free markets and so they must stay manipulated ad infinitum. The media no longer reports on national debt anywhere because it no longer matters, its just a number that has become meaningless. The Primary wave since the financial fraud crash of 2008 has been sideways for the last few years and just like a mid-wave churn before an extension. It can be seen as a muted correction leading into the next bull cycle or as a mid-wave bringing an extension by replication of P3. I prefer the latter. Similar behaviour can be seen on the DAX and S&P500 and most all indices that have clear signs of having been pumped beyond their station.

I remember when China was accused of manipulation of the markets. What a joke that is now.

There's certainly no doubt that the coming financial crisis will be wore than anything the world has seen. The Pension funding gaps alone are going to cause severe pain.

 

I actually see the last financial crisis in 2008 as a wave 4 for the JSE. The bull run since then being a wave 5 and the sideways move and recent break out as being a double irregular correction. We'll know soon if there's any truth to it because a break higher for the JSE would invalidate the double correction b. At these levels the extension of b is 1.25 of the length of A which is as far as the psychology of the pattern will allow before it fall apart and at that point one would certainly consider this a P3 as you've noted. Monthly RSI confirms this double correction case so far but if it moves higher would break the momentum to the upside.

 

The way this index is moving it's pretty hard to imagine it not moving higher as it continues to pull money into shares which have virtually no future value at these levels. As we know it's not foreign money anymore but rather the South Africa public which is certainly hard to grasp considering everything we're exposed to on a daily basis. I still believe the JSE and especially the top 40 is horribly exposed to a negative shift in investor sentiment i.e. Naspers, commodity shares, SA earning shares and some of the luxury brands that dominate the index. When it decides to correct it should necessitate a long and painful correction.

[Snippit]

Appears to be the most unbroken run up in the Top 40 since the last crash.

@Snippet. Any thoughts on this potentially being a double irregular correction? It's the best wave pattern I can find to explain the Jse. Using 1998 or even before as the start of wave 1, the beginning of the emerging markets run up. Jse just doesn't seem to have properly corrected I.e. an ABC construction since that time period.

 

I see a big picture like none before it and due entirely to global interventionism in markets which is the driver like none before it. There is no comfortable way back to free markets and so they must stay manipulated ad infinitum. The media no longer reports on national debt anywhere because it no longer matters, its just a number that has become meaningless. The Primary wave since the financial fraud crash of 2008 has been sideways for the last few years and just like a mid-wave churn before an extension. It can be seen as a muted correction leading into the next bull cycle or as a mid-wave bringing an extension by replication of P3. I prefer the latter. Similar behaviour can be seen on the DAX and S&P500 and most all indices that have clear signs of having been pumped beyond their station.

I remember when China was accused of manipulation of the markets. What a joke that is now.

Edited by Snippit, 11 October 2017 - 10:29 AM.

[Mostlya]

Appears to be the most unbroken run up in the Top 40 since the last crash.

@Snippet. Any thoughts on this potentially being a double irregular correction? It's the best wave pattern I can find to explain the Jse. Using 1998 or even before as the start of wave 1, the beginning of the emerging markets run up. Jse just doesn't seem to have properly corrected I.e. an ABC construction since that time period.

[Mostlya]

I find monthly helps to fit the longer term onto the screen. The RSI (14) don't help so much to pick out divergence as it does with the lower resolutions.  

Cool thank for the info and the chart, much appreciated.

[Snippit]

Thanks a lot. One more question if you don't mind, do you use a monthly chart at all to determine primary wave counts?

 

I find monthly helps to fit the longer term onto the screen. The RSI (14) don't help so much to pick out divergence as it does with the lower resolutions.  

[Mostlya]

Thanks a lot. One more question if you don't mind, do you use a monthly chart at all to determine primary wave counts?

[Snippit]

@Snippet what are you long term views on the Jse? Put another way what long term wave would you say the Jse is in considering the sideways moves it's experienced until the recent breakout?

 

ALSI general indices are busy entering minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave 3

This means approaching the half-way mark of the bull cycle that commenced early 2016. This means energetic uptrend continuation with periodic pull backs viz:

Minor 3 goes to pull back minor 4 then upleg minor 5 completes the intermediate 3 which pulls back into intermediate 4 with minor wave spalshing all over and then comes intermediate 5 which produces another 5 minor waves until the bull expires and Papa Primary bear takes over. Check it out here....

https://wavecount.blogspot.co.za/

[Mostlya]

Hard to argue now that the central bank put has created the biggest mental blind spot in human history

[Mostlya]

Anybody want to talk about this bubble? Most expensive and simultaneously the most complacent in history. It would seem to be the most far reaching speculative event ever.

Dark times ahead for all the ordinary people as a result of this.

@Snippet what are you long term views on the Jse? Put another way what long term wave would you say the Jse is in considering the sideways moves it's experienced until the recent breakout?

[Snippit]

Pictures are easier to read. Also for those that never found any desire to write.

Soon you will have no need for the thieves that lurk all around. You will be able to start your own thieving business.

Mugs away.

[Snippit]

Ahoy miserable mange afflicted voyeurs. Check wave 3 of wave 3 of wave 3.

 

[Snippit]

Good day to you Snippet...... and the Blogspot guy....My name is  Neill.......Could you please do some more posting here..I am desperate for updated elliot wave maps .........Top40....SP500.......Gold....Dollar....All Time Frames......I have a lot of respect and appreciation for the work you guys do.......It has been a great help to me.....Thankyou very much for what you have done so far.....IT HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED THE WAY I TRADE......and think.....for the better.........Thankyou guys.......

 

A special meeting was held to discuss and agree the agenda for the next meeting. Then we had a party which lasted until the next meeting where we found that all we had was an agenda. So we decided to reschedule and then we carried on with the party. But when it was my turn to buy the drinks I managed to get some attention and obtained a response which appeared to enjoy some consensus.

It was agreed that what we do is quite straight forward and we even show the whole thing so that nothing is left up any sleeve or such.

If a bunch of clowns can do this then so can an entire nation. We look forward to exchanging views rather than be the sole provider.

[Snippit]

Not only do the charts foretell but from tea leaves out of depth analysis is given:

The US and similarly assisted markets are far from any change of assistance or trend.  Indeed, the spectre of the resurgence of toxic instruments indicates that the experience of the last decade has generated a lust for more of the same by the unworthy beneficiaries. The US dollar indicates expectations for Fed rate increases going forward attracting buyers. Gold goes down in US dollars when the dollar strengthens. Whilst all reasons to fear anything at all lie dormant then gold will be controlled by the dollar strength and so will the Rand, where the albatross is now making a nest on the back of the elephant, so neither will be moving away any time soon, or as long as endless political spirals continue rotating nefariously. Nonetheless the ALSI algorithms are blinkered which continues to be bullish.

For those that prefer to be bearish, there is a quiet corner available but with standing room only.

Edited by Snippit, 02 October 2017 - 11:52 AM.

[Phoenix...]

SWIX flags the turning into the 3rd of the 3rd via a September divergence. ALSI instruments always comply.

$gold hourly divergence flags the turning back into the 3rd of the 3rd from the mid 3rd 9-waver correction.

USDZAR makes the break. No more Mr Nice Guy prop for the ruling criminal elites.

The myopic majority have been in need of some serious pain in order to awaken some common sense use of democracy.

This overdue pain and consequential awakening is essential for any hope for future generations.

The ruling criminal elite will seek to intimidate and eliminate on a scale akin to civil war. The economic pain is just the begining.

And this is just an overview of chapter one of my next book which is still untweetable.

Good day to you Snippet...... and the Blogspot guy....My name is  Neill.......Could you please do some more posting here..I am desperate for updated elliot wave maps .........Top40....SP500.......Gold....Dollar....All Time Frames......I have a lot of respect and appreciation for the work you guys do.......It has been a great help to me.....Thankyou very much for what you have done so far.....IT HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED THE WAY I TRADE......and think.....for the better.........Thankyou guys.......

[Snippit]

SWIX flags the turning into the 3rd of the 3rd via a September divergence. ALSI instruments always comply.

$gold hourly divergence flags the turning back into the 3rd of the 3rd from the mid 3rd 9-waver correction.

USDZAR makes the break. No more Mr Nice Guy prop for the ruling criminal elites.

The myopic majority have been in need of some serious pain in order to awaken some common sense use of democracy.

This overdue pain and consequential awakening is essential for any hope for future generations.

The ruling criminal elite will seek to intimidate and eliminate on a scale akin to civil war. The economic pain is just the begining.

And this is just an overview of chapter one of my next book which is still untweetable.

[Snippit]

Not many hombres smoking the markets any more.

The desire to be ahead of the curve (that shoud be turning just now but does'nt and then refuses) is a dangerous one that can be fatal.

The afflicted punters are consumed by logic which is supported by reliable indicators that are eventually found to be fallible.

This new extreme is then used to adjust the known extent of statistical dimensions. But the punters are now ex.

For every loss there is a gain. What is in the heads of these winners, they must be aliens.

And for all we know they are just that and they even made money from a movie about themselves.

In the begining (of aliens in control hereabouts) there was a mystery man. And his earth name was Rothschild.

The purpose of total and silent control of the earth planet was undertaken with alien ability and diligence.

The likes of which would be beyond the slow-developing earthien (earthen?) beings for all eternity.

Edited by Snippit, 25 September 2017 - 07:02 PM.

[grantmu]

read some stuff on Hussman https://www.hussmanf...c/wmc170123.htm

 

After my comment that the vix is at it lowest and that is a bad thing but it made me look at one other thing that may confirm the coming problems. The part  I looked at is to see if i can find an indicator that shows the idiots are jumping in at the top. This is one of he biggest pointers to a problem on the very close horizon. The only thing that I can find that shows that in a way is margin debt. The interesting thing about this debt is that it should only be a percentage of the total exchange values because there are some people that have invested real money and not just debt based transactions. The interesting thing is that the current margin debt seems to be more than the total value of all the markets put together. That in my view is a recipe for disaster and does prove that people are trying to get in at the top so as not to miss out on this last gasp of a very long bull run.

What is more interesting is that if this number is correct all the margin calls in the world would not be able to get the equity back in the green under any circumstance whatsoever. That would in my view point to a problem with the trading systems in that if confidence is lost the market and more importantly the banks financing this debt would not be in a position to to balance the books even if every single stock is sold. There would still be a very substantial difference between the debt and the total value of the stocks, in my estimation about a 1/3 short.

Getting these numbers is difficult and probably not that accurate as the only numbers you can get are 6 months out of date, but this number has been going up almost vertically since the 2008 crash.

 

Add to that the Hussman indicator that seems to have been correct on every crash so far shows that the jumps in the market (the GAPS) fall in the 1 to 1,5 percent range that indicates a top has formed and is about to turn. Looking at this from a point of view that we have had many indicators showing problems and nothing happened. In my view that is simply because there is so much printed cash floating around that the one signal and then crash does not seem to work. The Hussman indicator seems to have fired multiple times in the last little 2017 run. (6 times i think) In all previous times a singe event has indicated a market top and turn to the down side. 

 

So my interpretation of markets is .

PE is above 28 to 1 Not a good sign.

Bonds are continuing on the down slope. Not a good sign

Margin debt is higher than ever before and above the total value of the market. A really bad sign for the banks.

OFF book bank debt is completely unknown.

Gold seems to be turning up. A sign of fear 

The FANG group are all seen as good but apart from apple carrying huge debt loads. (tech bubble anyone)

Cryptos are seen as a safe haven. Who in there right minds decided this was a good idea.

Korea is going to be a glass bottomed self lighting parking lot in the very near future. Just one of many idiots with a finger on the button. If the world just sneezes this lot is going to go bang.

 

If I had to make a bet on what is going to cause this thing to fall it would be the threat of a war or an actual detonation somewhere, that would create an urgent margin call and would probably occur on a weekend. That would have the potential to fold a few smaller banks and online trader companies. The bigger banks would bail them all out and take the debt on under anew umbrella. That would make it all seem to go away until reporting season comes around and then the extent of the problem would become more apparent. The only way the banks can try and force the printing of money to start again is to hold a few governments to ransom but in order to do that they are going to have to tell someone how bad it all is and in my view if you add all the banks together the amount of money needed to re float them is going to be 40 or 50 times what happened in the last bail out. No central bank can do that or what little value the currency has is going to disappear. (sort of Zimbabwe world wide)

 

This thing in my view will unravel slowly to start with and then gain speed, but when it goes it is going to take more than the stock market with it, housing, bonds and some currencies are all going to follow it down the toilet. And the same way this market kept going up with no real reason I think the reverse is going to happen, The market is going to struggle to find the bottom and there will be a series of turns that all the suckers are going to jump back in.

 

By 2020 we are going to live in a very different world.

G   

 

[Snippit]

an interesting note. 

 

The S&P Vix is now at the lowest point in its existence. 9.67. Checking history shows that as soon as the Vix goes to a new low it also signals the euphoria stage of a bull run. Euphoria can run for quite some time but it may be worth remembering that this bull has been running for quite some time and the PE ratios of all stocks are at levels that in some cases have never been seem before. This signal is not one of those get out now kind of things but it in my view should be a word of caution. Add to that the exodus of some of the smarter money may indicate a more general hesitation to make long term purchases. 

 

Euphoria phase gives way to hesitation, hesitation becomes loss of confidence, loss of confidence ends up with a stampede for the door. 

 

Just make sure your trading account does not disappear along with the bank that is holding it, it could cost you quit a bit. Just because you are going in the right direction and supposedly making money, does not guarantee that you will actually be able to make any money if the derivative holder goes down the tubes because of outstanding calls for those still on bull. If this bear market happens fast and hard the derivative holders can go out of business within a day. 

 

good luck

 

G

 

The previous low appears to be Jan 08 with the markets peaking 4 months later. That gave us the financial fraud crash. But then there was only the old clunk clonk FED. Now there is the inter-galactic alliance that is able to collude like a mega cartel and they use illusionists in their PR department and are advertising for hypnotists with success record for mass audiences. The balance sheet will be disappeared whilst interest rates float about at 2 feet from the floor.

Buy smoke and mirrors before there is none left.

Edited by Snippit, 22 September 2017 - 12:25 PM.

[Snippit]

The smell of fear is measured in parts per Trillion of the FED balance sheet. The FED should be registered as a religious institution whilst the faithful and the fearful pray for safe passage through the unkown unwinding. It was written in the wet concrete of the foundations of the FED building that the land of milk and honey floats upon cloud 9 which will remain in the sky above Wall Street for all eternity. Fot the unfaithful disbelievers we are having a special sale on gold.

[grantmu]

an interesting note. 

 

The S&P Vix is now at the lowest point in its existence. 9.67. Checking history shows that as soon as the Vix goes to a new low it also signals the euphoria stage of a bull run. Euphoria can run for quite some time but it may be worth remembering that this bull has been running for quite some time and the PE ratios of all stocks are at levels that in some cases have never been seem before. This signal is not one of those get out now kind of things but it in my view should be a word of caution. Add to that the exodus of some of the smarter money may indicate a more general hesitation to make long term purchases. 

 

Euphoria phase gives way to hesitation, hesitation becomes loss of confidence, loss of confidence ends up with a stampede for the door. 

 

Just make sure your trading account does not disappear along with the bank that is holding it, it could cost you quit a bit. Just because you are going in the right direction and supposedly making money, does not guarantee that you will actually be able to make any money if the derivative holder goes down the tubes because of outstanding calls for those still on bull. If this bear market happens fast and hard the derivative holders can go out of business within a day. 

 

good luck

 

G