35854 replies to this topic

[Argento]

Argento , thanks for that page on 'Stock Operator ' book - just these words I will pencil in on my trading plan :

"..not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight"

 

  oh well, patience is virtue they say , a profitable one in the case of trading

Pleasure O

 

Good to see you are still around!

 

A

[grantmu]

 

  oh well, patience is virtue they say , a profitable one in the case of trading

sometimes patience can cause traders to become a patient in the hospital for stress. 

[Argento]

agreed, estimate Wednesday next week will end this little up, throwing in the sink on down, then will do the sink, the master bedroom the car and whatever else I can find for the run back up again. 

Imagine...3000 pips down and 4000 pips back up....o ye!

 

David Petch said one can make significant returns with the waves coming...and he is right!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 16 July 2014 - 03:41 PM.

[OceanWalz]

Argento , thanks for that page on 'Stock Operator ' book - just these words I will pencil in on my trading plan :

"..not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight"

 

  oh well, patience is virtue they say , a profitable one in the case of trading

[grantmu]

So close...but eitherway expect new highs into next week....earnings season paid off again, not good for shorts!

 

BUT...look at the weekly macd, overbought and setting up negative divergence for that drop coming in August, one ride I'm going to take all the way down!

 

A

agreed, estimate Wednesday next week will end this little up, throwing in the sink on down, then will do the sink, the master bedroom the car and whatever else I can find for the run back up again. 

[Argento]

new record close within reach today ????????

So close...but eitherway expect new highs into next week....earnings season paid off again, not good for shorts!

 

BUT...look at the weekly macd, overbought and setting up negative divergence for that drop coming in August, one ride I'm going to take all the way down!

 

A

Attached Files

•  TOP40 (Weekly negative divergence).jpg   173.25KB   3 downloads

Edited by Argento, 16 July 2014 - 03:19 PM.

[Wingnut]

new record close within reach today ????????

Indeed! and Im battling to sit tight

[grantmu]

new record close within reach today ????????

[Argento]

I agree with you that longer term is definitely classified as investing over speculation. My view is that the risk premium works for medium time-frames too, weeks and months as well as years, so has an advantage for speculation too 

 

A

[sequoia]

Then you are talking more about investing rather than speculation!

 

With the margin on futures and CFD's including the knock out levels for warrants it is a different ballgame...although the principle still applies of sitting tight the timeframe is less, these products are just too volatile to sit through a 1000 drop!

 

The reward is much more than normal equities but then again the risk much higher for losses!

 

Just my view...if your strategy works for you that is the key to your success!

 

A

 

I agree with you that longer term is definitely classified as investing over speculation. My view is that the risk premium works for medium time-frames too, weeks and months as well as years, so has an advantage for speculation too 

[Argento]

This leg is more like b until it breaks something.

Although the 3-4a was 84% of 1-2 (maybe short term low volume high sentiment afflicted).

The gap and lack of form in this wave appears without adequate excuse.

And now equal legs trip brings in bounce circa 47000 (futures)  ?

Thanks V

 

The level I looked at for a possible b has already been broken and therefore expect new highs, but not a new wave up, just distribution!

A

[Argento]

I disagree, what is the funding charge and what is the long run return of stocks?

 

I would argue that long run return of stocks is greater than cash, and to an amount far larger than the 250 bps spread IG charges. The equity risk premium is a wonderful thing over the long run. That's why position sizing is so important if you are to ride out the inevitable draw downs, sideway and whipsaw markets.

 

Last 10 year return on ALSI is an annualised rate of 21% to put it into perspective.

Then you are talking more about investing rather than speculation!

 

With the margin on futures and CFD's including the knock out levels for warrants it is a different ballgame...although the principle still applies of sitting tight the timeframe is less, these products are just too volatile to sit through a 1000 drop!

 

The reward is much more than normal equities but then again the risk much higher for losses!

 

Just my view...if your strategy works for you that is the key to your success!

 

A

[grantmu]

I disagree, what is the funding charge and what is the long run return of stocks?

 

I would argue that long run return of stocks is greater than cash, and to an amount far larger than the 250 bps spread IG charges. The equity risk premium is a wonderful thing over the long run. That's why position sizing is so important if you are to ride out the inevitable draw downs, sideway and whipsaw markets.

 

Last 10 year return on ALSI is an annualised rate of 21% to put it into perspective.

I did not try the CFD.s I was only involved with the SA40 on IG. I do play much longer trades on CFDs but don't use IG to trade CFDs. On the SA40 I was always eaten up by interest. So as an example 2 full cash contract cost you 12000, so interest per day is 1200+- interest for 60 days is 72000 out of a potential 100K

 

G

[Vertebrae]

If you look at the size of intermediate 1 and 2...4 should also be in that range, pointing to a 3000 points drop!

 

0.382 fib target aims at 44352ish futures..but can overshoot a bit!

 

This drop I will definitely short, then long again for intermediate V up into Oct!

 

But waiting for new highs and that signal....

 

A

 

This leg is more like b until it breaks something.

Although the 3-4a was 84% of 1-2 (maybe short term low volume high sentiment afflicted).

The gap and lack of form in this wave appears without adequate excuse.

And now equal legs trip brings in bounce circa 47000 (futures)  ?

[sequoia]

I tried those really long ones a few years ago, on a cash type system the interest gets you every time. and having the market turn sideways or down for 3 weeks that interest can really get you. I think A is right and I don't think anyone can stay in a trade on a cash type system for more than 2 months or you will make so little that all that stress is not worth the effort. if you don't get a result within 20 days dump it for the profit and start again.  

 

I disagree, what is the funding charge and what is the long run return of stocks?

 

I would argue that long run return of stocks is greater than cash, and to an amount far larger than the 250 bps spread IG charges. The equity risk premium is a wonderful thing over the long run. That's why position sizing is so important if you are to ride out the inevitable draw downs, sideway and whipsaw markets.

 

Last 10 year return on ALSI is an annualised rate of 21% to put it into perspective.

Edited by sequoia, 16 July 2014 - 12:44 PM.

[grantmu]

SIMPLE!!!! Why is it so difficult then?

I tried those really long ones a few years ago, on a cash type system the interest gets you every time. and having the market turn sideways or down for 3 weeks that interest can really get you. I think A is right and I don't think anyone can stay in a trade on a cash type system for more than 2 months or you will make so little that all that stress is not worth the effort. if you don't get a result within 20 days dump it for the profit and start again.  

[sequoia]

SIMPLE!!!! Why is it so difficult then?

 

One word, EMOTIONS.

 

We believe we need to be doing to be earning, our emotional biases and our fear and greed

[sequoia]

If you have bought last year June and sat through all the waves one could have literally made millions, she was on 33 000 and look where she is now!

 

But...I believe Elliott shows you exactly where you are (and you need to know) in the bullmarket cause come the top she will drop like a stone and catch most investors off guard...but you sure got the principle right and kudu's to you...simple actually with doing less but making more money!

 

For those who have not read Livingstone's book...see attached!

 

A

 

Yip, look at the quote on my signature. I just trade the tape  

 

Yes it will one day drop like a stone but I would rather give away some of a lot, than nothing of a little.

[Wingnut]

If you have bought last year June and sat through all the waves one could have literally made millions, she was on 33 000 and look where she is now!

 

But...I believe Elliott shows you exactly where you are (and you need to know) in the bullmarket cause come the top she will drop like a stone and catch most investors off guard...but you sure got the principle right and kudu's to you...simple actually with doing less but making more money!

 

For those who have not read Livingstone's book...see attached!

 

A

SIMPLE!!!! Why is it so difficult then?

[grantmu]

4 of my 5 longs bought 'on the way down', closed at 46953 (IG Cash).

 

Average made per trade = 406.5 pips

Total banked = 1626 pips

Time period = 9 days

good one