35854 replies to this topic

[grantmu]

Ai...the one thing I must get right is to eliminate days like today....was up 89 pips and then giving back 346 pips with two longs, which were both in the green at some stage....damn.

in the same boat, still holding the longs though 

[grantmu]

would allow the close out day to be a 1 percent day without breaking the bands and going much higher, if the market broke the bands it could be back to a bull market. as close outs are normally busy days with big up and down swings this little drop will allow for these swings and not break out of the current channel (we are running close to the top of the band at the moment, too much up and we could break the band)) the market seems to be in, you also don't want to go to low or the people holding contracts would be out of profits. 

 

this drop will keep us in the band and still allow for a day with larger swings.

 

it is just a theory 

 

G

Could also just as easily drop like a rock tomorow

[grantmu]

Sorry Grant. Not trying to be thick but what do you mean?

would allow the close out day to be a 1 percent day without breaking the bands and going much higher, if the market broke the bands it could be back to a bull market. as close outs are normally busy days with big up and down swings this little drop will allow for these swings and not break out of the current channel (we are running close to the top of the band at the moment, too much up and we could break the band)) the market seems to be in, you also don't want to go to low or the people holding contracts would be out of profits. 

 

this drop will keep us in the band and still allow for a day with larger swings.

 

it is just a theory 

 

G

[strydomk]

Sorry Grant. Not trying to be thick but what do you mean?

[Plasma]

Ai...the one thing I must get right is to eliminate days like today....was up 89 pips and then giving back 346 pips with two longs, which were both in the green at some stage....damn.

Edited by Plasma, 18 June 2014 - 03:42 PM.

[grantmu]

this small drop could be a really nice setup for tomorrows close out.

[grantmu]

Hi all.

I am not much into technical indicators at the moment....only using stochastic as background info, BB and 2 EMAs. However, should there be somebody who is interested in some detail analysis ito the effectiveness of indicators, then google Technical Indicator – Fight for Supremacy.

Not pasting the link since it is against forum rules.

They have tested a large number or indicators....some still to be tested. The following is an extract from the introduction page.

There are a vast number of technical indicators out there but which ones are best? Are any of them suitable for use in a mechanical trading model? Do any of them actually provide value over a buy and hold approach? In my experience most of the publicly available technical indicators are of little, if any value. All of our best performing models are build on completely new ideas that deviate from conventional approaches to technical analysis almost entirely. But questions remain: what length of moving average provides the best signals? Is it better to use a simple or exponential moving average? Quality answers to these questions are few and far between and often the process people use to establish such answers are majorly flawed. - See more at: http://etfhq.com/blo...h.Bw9qHGd2.dpuf

very interesting. 

 

thanks for the info 

 

G

[Wingnut]

Talk about watching paint dry!

 

[Plasma]

Hi all.

I am not much into technical indicators at the moment....only using stochastic as background info, BB and 2 EMAs. However, should there be somebody who is interested in some detail analysis ito the effectiveness of indicators, then google Technical Indicator – Fight for Supremacy.

Not pasting the link since it is against forum rules.

They have tested a large number or indicators....some still to be tested. The following is an extract from the introduction page.

There are a vast number of technical indicators out there but which ones are best? Are any of them suitable for use in a mechanical trading model? Do any of them actually provide value over a buy and hold approach? In my experience most of the publicly available technical indicators are of little, if any value. All of our best performing models are build on completely new ideas that deviate from conventional approaches to technical analysis almost entirely. But questions remain: what length of moving average provides the best signals? Is it better to use a simple or exponential moving average? Quality answers to these questions are few and far between and often the process people use to establish such answers are majorly flawed. - See more at: http://etfhq.com/blo...h.Bw9qHGd2.dpuf

[Hedge]

Thanks guys. My Sgxnifty Dowfutures Live must be a mix of futures and the index.

[Mhlato]

Thanks for that. Mine still still out of sink. Minus 32 and plus 36. Very strange! Maybe I must close and open again. Will try.

 

Hi, looks like someone has the index and the futures mixed up?   (See attachment)

Attached Files

•  FT.png   116.73KB   8 downloads

[Hedge]

Thanks for that. Mine still still out of sink. Minus 32 and plus 36. Very strange! Maybe I must close and open again. Will try.

[BlythZ]

Hi Hedge,

 

I checked the Sgxnifty and GT247 FTSE Futures and they are now in sync at 6793 as I type

[Hedge]

Sgxnifty futures live. FTSE 100 = 6740 - 39

GT247 Futtues Live. FTSE 100 = 6793 +29

Take your pick??

[Argento]

_{My take is sideways to down from here until she reaches this magic uptrend line again and then shoots up for new highs!}

 

_A

Attached Files

•  TOP40 Uptrendline.jpg   170.88KB   8 downloads

[strydomk]

To cut longs or not to cut longs. Hmmmm

[grantmu]

in at 45940 long target 46200. little volumes and lots of indecision today

[AJS]

Weak Rand, stronger international counter and indices.... Here comes the push towards 46500 I suppose.

[grantmu]

Just to put my view in graph terms, you can see in 2007 when she moved through the monthly bollingerband a sell signal was given for a huge drop that kicked off the bullmarket top formation!She is moving along the current bollingerband and we know QE3 is ending around September, if you look at the previous programs she tends to top a month/2 before so around July/August she should move through and confirm a top with a pot of gold short if you play it right!

 

The Kress/40/7 year cycle is due to make its low in October so from there we should see one last top/new high in 2015 to end the big primary wave 5 since 2009 and end the bullmarket!

 

A

You and I are on the same page here, I also see a big drop coming, although I did not limit the look only back to 2007.In my view these long climbs followed by Hugh drops is a symptom of the financial system as a whole. In my view these conditions are created by the larger funds that have all made promises to investors, when you look at it they all seem to have made the same promise "We will make money for you long term" so after every drop this is seen as money owed to the fund, when you have all the funds striving for the same thing you have a collective that is all looking I the same direction. To me this is what drives the market the way it does, and what I see now (right at this moment) is that the general push of the funds is being limited by a few casting doubt on the entire process and this is taking the wind out of the sails to a degree.

 

The one thing that seems to always happen after a drop is that there is a concerted effort to recover what the financial sector sees as lost earnings, what seems to happen is all the descenting voices that were present before the drop are all part of the scramble to recover wealth and that descenting voice that started the drop now fades away.

 

This type of thinking is very predictable but in every case the effect is worse on the next round, this also seems to prevent the markets from being allowed to correct at regular intervals, these corrections would normally stabilise pricing and allow the market to verify the value of the price and the viability of the company. with these boom and bust scenarios the company no longer matters, this is especially the case if a fund has a couple of billion invested in that company, there is no moving of money until the market is back into profitable levels, so companies that should not be at the top of the food chain are, simply because they have so much investment.

 

In each case there is about a 3 - 5 year period of recovery followed by a push to add profit s to the investors, in effect to make the long term promises come true. We are approaching that point now.

 

Day trading seems to offer a way out of swing trading when the market is in the situation we are currently in, a slow and steady movement up but a general nervousness in the markets. We will remain in this limbo until a change in mind set either up or down but at the moment limbo is the order of the day with the old adage of play the market trend still in effect, so at the moment up it is.

 

My looking at day trading to to see if trading the market on a single day will reduce the risk and not add to it, the question is does day trading allow for investment with profit on a single day level. Allowing for the money to be used to make profit while not putting it into a long term trade that is seen as possible at risk if a drop happens. I am still swing trading as this is what I know best, but the band we are all trading in is becoming more and more confined, that in itself signals a change is going to happen and in all probability it will be down but how long before the change, 3 months, 6. can I afford to have my capital sitting in a bank at 5 percent when it could be doing 45 in the market. 

[Argento]

Just to put my view in graph terms, you can see in 2007 when she moved through the monthly bollingerband a sell signal was given for a huge drop that kicked off the bullmarket top formation!She is moving along the current bollingerband and we know QE3 is ending around September, if you look at the previous programs she tends to top a month/2 before so around July/August she should move through and confirm a top with a pot of gold short if you play it right!

 

The Kress/40/7 year cycle is due to make its low in October so from there we should see one last top/new high in 2015 to end the big primary wave 5 since 2009 and end the bullmarket!

 

A

Last graph...always good to view the market from a distance and try to determine what she is doing, what pattern is she forming from which a big move will originate??

 

So we have this nice wedge formation and see Caldaro is also saying the European indexes is due for a significant correction in the second half of the year, so looking at where she might bottom 38000ish looks like a valid count!But first the uptrend wedge line needs to break for confirmation.....   

 

A

Attached Files

•  TOP40 (Wedge).jpg   174.48KB   9 downloads