165 replies to this topic

[yusufm]

ELLIES HOLDINGS LIMITED
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number: 2007/007084/06)
JSE share code: ELI ISIN: ZAE000103081
(“Ellies” or the “company” or the “group”)


TRADING STATEMENT


In terms of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, companies are required to publish a trading
statement as soon as they are satisfied that a reasonable degree of certainty exists that the financial results
for the period to be reported upon next will differ by at least 20% from the previous corresponding period.

Shareholders are advised that Ellies expects that its earnings per share and headline earnings per share for
the year ended 30 April 2014 will be between 65% and 75% lower compared to the earnings per share and
headline earnings per share for the year ended 30 April 2013. Shareholders are reminded that the company’s
results for the year ended 30 April 2013 reflected The Eskom Project Power Save Program completed during
this period, which was not repeated in the year ended 30 April 2014, together with the necessary stock
disposals in later half of the year.

The group's results for the year ended 30 April 2014 are expected to be released on SENS on or about
22 July 2014.

The information on which this trading statement has been based has not been reviewed or reported on by the
company`s auditors.

2 July 2014

 

 

Will be buying at sub-200c 

[Procrastinator]

I see there are many hopes put on DTT implementation...but does anyone know what impact does the current fight over top boxes having control unit or not have on ELI. Which option will favour them? or can they supply both?

I reckon there has been a lot of assumption around Ellie's being a huge beneficiary from implementation of the DTT box manufacture and supply, reality I think is that this is far from being a silver bullet for Ellie's profitability.
There are a lot of players in this space internationally and there have to be many importers looking to supply set top boxes etc.
This will be a bun fight of note amongst suppliers of these items, at the expense of profit.

[TheLittleGuy]

Latest relative valuation of Ellies is here - http://www.relativev....co.za/eli.html

Seems it's still not in value territory

that relative value sheet was last updated on the 22nd Oct 2013......

[brendonfiddes]

Latest relative valuation of Ellies is here - http://www.relativev....co.za/eli.html

Seems it's still not in value territory

[shelddy]

I am a buying every time it dips below R4. 1H14 was the bottom of earnings for them. On my calculations base EPS is 60c for ELI. Meaning at R4 is trades at 6.74x earnings and 1.2x P/NAV. Mgmt noted they are going to push some pricing thro so that should stabilise gross margins. OVHD will add to revs going forward and Megatron holds big potential given the need to independent power generation. 

 

Ultimately at R4 ELI is basically an option on DTT, while we all know timing is uncertain it WILL happen. Back of the envelope calculation gets me a >R1/shr value for DTT, but you can be sure the stock will run once it officially kicks off. Additionally ELI's has locked up a lot of cash in working capital ahead of the DTT roll-out, so CF ramps up as they start to move that stock in a big way. 

 

ELI can easily earn >R1 in FY16 at 10x, that is a 150% return from here.  

 

Buy when others are fearful.....

 

I see there are many hopes put on DTT implementation...but does anyone know what impact does the current fight over top boxes having control unit or not have on ELI. Which option will favour them? or can they supply both?

[ThatBlackGuy]

I am a buying every time it dips below R4. 1H14 was the bottom of earnings for them. On my calculations base EPS is 60c for ELI. Meaning at R4 is trades at 6.74x earnings and 1.2x P/NAV. Mgmt noted they are going to push some pricing thro so that should stabilise gross margins. OVHD will add to revs going forward and Megatron holds big potential given the need to independent power generation. 

 

Ultimately at R4 ELI is basically an option on DTT, while we all know timing is uncertain it WILL happen. Back of the envelope calculation gets me a >R1/shr value for DTT, but you can be sure the stock will run once it officially kicks off. Additionally ELI's has locked up a lot of cash in working capital ahead of the DTT roll-out, so CF ramps up as they start to move that stock in a big way. 

 

ELI can easily earn >R1 in FY16 at 10x, that is a 150% return from here.  

 

Buy when others are fearful.....

 

I hear you my guy

 

I'm looking at it closer to R3

 

But I will wait for the next set of numbers to have a better view on the sustainability of the current business excluding DTT.

 

But you may well be right. 

[TheLittleGuy]

Sub 4
Another group of directors that need to be put to a cricket bat!

I am a buying every time it dips below R4. 1H14 was the bottom of earnings for them. On my calculations base EPS is 60c for ELI. Meaning at R4 is trades at 6.74x earnings and 1.2x P/NAV. Mgmt noted they are going to push some pricing thro so that should stabilise gross margins. OVHD will add to revs going forward and Megatron holds big potential given the need to independent power generation. 

 

Ultimately at R4 ELI is basically an option on DTT, while we all know timing is uncertain it WILL happen. Back of the envelope calculation gets me a >R1/shr value for DTT, but you can be sure the stock will run once it officially kicks off. Additionally ELI's has locked up a lot of cash in working capital ahead of the DTT roll-out, so CF ramps up as they start to move that stock in a big way. 

 

ELI can easily earn >R1 in FY16 at 10x, that is a 150% return from here.  

 

Buy when others are fearful.....

[gamma]

Sub 4
Another group of directors that need to be put to a cricket bat!

[OreoRaider]

Thanks for the advice. Will stay away for now, but I do expect a turnaround from Ellies at some point.

[delta66]

agree with Rockstar..much better options out there. ELI would only be a buy from 2.50  even at that price make sure you check financials with emphasis on debt repayment policy

[Mad Max]

At what price should I buy into?

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

Instead of buying ELI why don't you buy EOH  or CML or NPN  or CCO . At least they don't keep going down !!!

[ThatBlackGuy]

At what price should I buy into?

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I think wait for a clear turnaround here mate ... You don't want to be riding this one down. You'd rather give away ten odd percent on the way up.

[Griffin]

At what price should I buy into?

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Why not wait until ELI release their April 2014 Final estimated on Wednesday, 23 July 2014

[OreoRaider]

At what price should I buy into?

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Griffin]

430 now ... touched 425.

 

:-D

 

This is going to drop below R4 mate

[ThatBlackGuy]

430 now ... touched 425.

 

:-D

[Griffin]

When Ellies went public a lot of the top level management were given shares.  At some point these people want to cash out some of these shares for personal reasons.  I dont see R20mil as a big selloff by directors.  The fact remains that their top level management are smart guys.  They're moving more and more into the energy space and i think they will make good profit there.  The price probably did overheat a bit last year and maybe we're just seeing a correction to that now.

 

These same directors also "SHORTED" their own company share

[Griffin]

Agreed ... cash management is the key issue with this business.

 

Every asset has a price though good people ... but knowing when to pick this one up is a bit tricky.

 

MAY 2013 ELI was trading at R10.

[ThatBlackGuy]

think the issue is around "cash management" or lack thereof. 

 

Agreed ... cash management is the key issue with this business.

 

Every asset has a price though good people ... but knowing when to pick this one up is a bit tricky.

[delta66]

When Ellies went public a lot of the top level management were given shares.  At some point these people want to cash out some of these shares for personal reasons.  I dont see R20mil as a big selloff by directors.  The fact remains that their top level management are smart guys.  They're moving more and more into the energy space and i think they will make good profit there.  The price probably did overheat a bit last year and maybe we're just seeing a correction to that now.

think the issue is around "cash management" or lack thereof.