909 replies to this topic

[Perreby]

No Perreby. Perhaps your stocks do. I especially chose stocks that are non volatile. Last time they moved like this was in 2008.

 

 

Orca its only going one way today tho.. And thats straight down..

 

Valuation of around R59 stands

Edited by Perreby, 11 June 2013 - 01:58 PM.

[orca]

You guys so heavily invested in CML worry way to much about it's day to day movements.. It's a stock for heaven's sake.. Stocks go up and down. It's the nature of the beast. Nothing goes up in a straight line.
 

No Perreby. Perhaps your stocks do. I especially chose stocks that are non volatile. Last time they moved like this was in 2008.

[Perreby]

You guys so heavily invested in CML worry way to much about it's day to day movements.. It's a stock for heaven's sake.. Stocks go up and down. It's the nature of the beast. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

And please when someone starts talking about CML having to do acquisitions or that they are becoming saturated I do get concerned that the blind is being lead by the blind... CML doesn't need to do any a acquisitions and their market is far from saturated. Not sure where the hell you thought that up Marcos.. I mean Orca.

Now unless there is a prolonged sell off or under performance by the markets I doubt CML will be affected to much.. A long sell off will see clients withdraw money (less fees for CML) leads to lower profits and hence lower share price. But short pullbacks in the market will hardly impact on CML

[delta66]

CML is following the same pattern as most other stocks do going ex div, coming off historical highs.  easy "short" option.  gamma is correct with the "over-analysis" fundamentally they still a solid company with forward potential.  if their volumes stabilize, i'm a buyer  from 55.00

[orca]

Saturated as in full and nothing more comes in. Retrenchments to me means expected lower income.

[gamma]

My concern is that the Assets Under Management must get saturated at some point. How much more can they handle? They don't do acquisitions to grow the company. Somewhere it must stop. 

Look at Microsoft as an example. Grew in leaps and bounds over years then got saturated. The PE climbed to 400 (I think). Then dropped to 40 with the stock price.

 

It might drop to 54 now or even 48 at lowest but drop, it will. If not now, then the Nov results will cause it but not to the levels just stated. It must get to at least the Fair Value at 70+ and close that gap at 62 before the Nov results.

 

My 2c

 

 

What does that even mean? Saturated?

 

You guys are over analysing. Money supply will increase. Some companies will win and others will lose. Net net the market will expand over time and corporate, government and private profit must be invested somewhere. CML AUM will continue to expand. Yes, there may be periods of slower growth and possibly even brief moments after contraction (usually after a rapid expansion) but over a period of 5-10 years I've no doubt it will be significantly larger.

 

To get over emotional when there is a dip in share price or a rise in share price will only result in you missing out on the gains over time.

 

I will continue to hold until I see something fundamentally change in the company or business model.

 

By the way, some inside info..spoke to a couple people at the company and heard they retrenched quite a few non-critical staff. This is good IMO as it signals their willingness to cut fat in advance of any potential slow down in growth, which again is a sign of proactive management.

[soutie]

Hey Orca

I tend to lean towards your previous post where a possible (looking even more likely) ratings downgrade could affect their offshore investors. 

I read somewhere that some fund managers cannot invest in funds/markets where the ratings are junk/speculative.

SA is one notch above at present. Should we see load shedding at any stage this year SA will be downgraded for sure.

Couple that with when Mandela passes away and the fear may take hold and plunge the JSE into an even bigger correction.

While CML has and may it continue to be a sterling performer it does rely on the overall health of the market as a whole, does it not..?

Not being an avid follower of CML, it irritates me how many times "should of" comes into play with this counter for me.

From your post you are saying that R48 is possible..? 

I know from this forum you do post possible scenarios. 

I'm not saying predict the bottom just give a heads up when to start taking serious interest.

I too would like to put "Retirement" money here some day.

Cheers. 

[orca]

My concern is that the Assets Under Management must get saturated at some point. How much more can they handle? They don't do acquisitions to grow the company. Somewhere it must stop. 

Look at Microsoft as an example. Grew in leaps and bounds over years then got saturated. The PE climbed to 400 (I think). Then dropped to 40 with the stock price.

 

It might drop to 54 now or even 48 at lowest but drop, it will. If not now, then the Nov results will cause it but not to the levels just stated. It must get to at least the Fair Value at 70+ and close that gap at 62 before the Nov results.

 

My 2c

[Cold Night]

Yes in a few weeks time everyone will be singing her praises again... 

Of course that's my opinion only!

[Cold Night]

She is Green for Go !!! Whoosh

Yes in a few weeks time everyone will be singing her praises again... 

[Mad Max]

She is Green for Go !!! Whoosh

[jaDEB]

When you feel down, have a look at the graphs of SGL and ACL and people that invested in them, now and the past. (cough, cough, jaDEB, cough, knob, cough)

[orca]

Thanks guys I'm 3.8% down. Today I'm just watching no more buying

How much have you lost if you factor your dividend in?

[Dabre]

Thanks guys I'm 3.8% down. Today I'm just watching no more buying

[noloman]

How low can it go I've been buying
since June. Am I catching a falling knife

First of all I'm a total noob when it comes to investing, and I've had a few misadventures with penny stocks. With that disclaimer out of the way. As other more experienced investors have said in this thread, CML has had a very strong, good run and a pullback is natural. I personally got in at R60.8,but I've already braced myself for it to go to like R54 before eventually continuing the upward trend.

[delta66]

don't panic, but hold buying until clearer direction...by what percentage are you down?

[Dabre]

How low can it go I've been buying
since June. Am I catching a falling knife

[BBW]

Taking a small nibble again; will average down.

[delta66]

price has fallen on above average volumes, from a tech point this indicates downward momentum. interesting week ahead, waiting on volumes to stabilize to their daily average before determining direction.

 

 

[Mad Max]

Didn't i say it was buy time!

 

You Did! and you are right !