909 replies to this topic

[BBW]

Let me try, I'm not so clued up on all this computer stuff; I just use the thing. Not a technical trader either, but started to follow your guidelines.

 

Sorry, not winning, but I'll find out how and then post it. (IG Markets' Insight).

[Barny]

Interim results due next week, are we seeing early excitment once again?

[orca]

BBW. Can you post your chart here? It is now so far above the 20SMA and even further from the 100SMA. Are you sure you have the correct stock?

[BBW]

It touched the 20MA line on the 4hr chart yesterday. If you really have patience, can wait till it hits the 100MA line on same chart, but don't keep your hopes up.

[orca]

Typical of CML to always get exited when her buddies are falling around her.

[BBW]

Hope you guys bought yesterday!?

[Mad Max]

I don't have candlestick charts but it sure looks too high above the 20SMA?CML.jpg

 

 

Yep, Way above . Needs probably 2-3 days before she hits it but it would be nice if she did not and just took off gradually...

[delta66]

waiting on div payout on VOD before exiting, planning to add more CML, there may be a buy opp on LDT or shortly after..IMHO i'll be surprised if we see more than a 5% slip.  

[orca]

I don't have candlestick charts but it sure looks too high above the 20SMA?  CML.jpg   202.61KB   33 downloads

[BBW]

Close to touching it's MA20 line again (4hr chart). You guys better buy! 

[gamma]

I am also looking to add more but I will rather wait for CML to make a 10% correction.

The ideal price for me would be 4800, but I think we will soon see 5000, be patient!

 you could be right but I doubt it. once the results come out (in fact before it does) CML will be mid 60s. It's on a forward PE of 16 so a price of R48 will drop the PE to below 14. 

[Stefan]

I am also looking to add more but I will rather wait for CML to make a 10% correction.

The ideal price for me would be 4800, but I think we will soon see 5000, be patient!

[Flips]

Hallo guys,


I am not a regular visitor to the forum but would none the less take the liberty to ask for some advice. I am reading quite a bit about CML here and want to ask if R50k can be ventured on CML for some return over next 6 months.

Thank you for your valued input.

[delta66]

Did some calculations. You guys can double check and let me know if my weed is off..

 

Based on the recent trading update we could expect full yr HEPS at 345c which puts it on a 6 month forward PE of around 16.

 

If it were to run up to a PE of 20 we looking at a share price around R70 (25% upside). If it were to run back to its current PE of 26, I have its target at R90 (60% upside).

sounds about right, my upside target for year end is R90 as well

[HDB]

Did some calculations. You guys can double check and let me know if my weed is off..

 

Based on the recent trading update we could expect full yr HEPS at 345c which puts it on a 6 month forward PE of around 16.

 

If it were to run up to a PE of 20 we looking at a share price around R70 (25% upside). If it were to run back to its current PE of 26, I have its target at R90 (60% upside).

 

 

As as as im concerned, the JSE should throw the book at CML. The rule and regulation clearly state  that if any company is aware that there profits or losses will be more or less than 20% compared to last period, that company should send out a sens immediately to the market... Now how can its Earnings grow by 100% and yet the company not send out a sens earlier than when it normally sends out its trading update sens??????? IOW surely CML knew much earlier that their profits will be more than 20%..

[gamma]

Did some calculations. You guys can double check and let me know if my weed is off..

 

Based on the recent trading update we could expect full yr HEPS at 345c which puts it on a 6 month forward PE of around 16.

 

If it were to run up to a PE of 20 we looking at a share price around R70 (25% upside). If it were to run back to its current PE of 26, I have its target at R90 (60% upside).

[orca]

Part 2. (Most people hate long posts)

CML is priceing in or has been for some time. To me she is in an obscure area at this stage and this will only become clear next month. Perhaps the knowledgable Fund Managers with their calculators are doing estimates now and chuck money at it or not.

The last figures showed an increase in HEPS at 6.5% and it corrected but a month later she was back up regaining it's loss. A very resiliant stock. Now what will an increase in HEPS of 70% do to it this time?

If you draw a trend line over 3 years and ignore the sudden change from Nov last year, it should have hit 3800 in todays terms. This would have given you a steady 60% pa gain. So it hit 5200 (haven't checked price tonight) and this is a massive 37% increase from it's norm.

Sorry. the last post was supposed to be 3 months not 4. A quarter is 3 months.
Will this increase in AUM and HEPS justify this extra 37%. Next month will tell.

Edited by Orca, 26 April 2013 - 06:24 PM.

[gamma]

If the AUM increases at this rate it will have increased by 210B at year end which would be a 71% increase.

 

So what does CML charge for fund management? Can't be less than 1%.. which is an extra 2B+ in revenue...

 

Holy ****

[orca]

Never HDB. Married to CML long time and surely it must be the most reliable and the least volatile stock on the JSE for long term.

Looking at the Bar Chart of the AUM, I see this:

 

The 2012 Bar shows an increase of R92B for the year. The 2013 Bar shows an increase of R70B. Now this is not less than last year because it is only 4 months increase vs 12 months of last year. Get what I am saying, or am I wrong?

This 2013 Bar gets udjusted every 4 months untill Dec 31.

 

Now this R70B increase will not contribute to the earnings for the results coming out next month and will only reflect in the next set of results as always. (UT Management Fees are only applied over time).

This can only mean that CML is good for some time to come.

[HDB]

Hay Orca don't tell us you sold out yesterday????      

 

Geez. Wrote a long post hours ago and now it's gone.