3674 replies to this topic

[AJS]

Well done HDB - that was indeed brilliant stuff!  

[HDB]

Today was the first day I traded the OUV on ALSI cash (and only in my 2nd week of ALSI trading), and thanks to HDB I closed up 175 points. I have just joined his class and I look forward to more active participation in this topic. What can I say that has not yet been said before?

To HDB - Gracias, Merci, Asante, Ngiyabonga, Dankie, Obrigado, teşekkür ederim, Спасибо, Hvala, Ju faleminderit, شكرا لك

well done A...may u have many more!!

 

 

Pms start from tomorrow to steal from the thugs!!

[HDB]

Thanks guys.... i closed 6 contracts at 46700....went it at 46310

 

2340 points in a few hours....My best so far

 

Hope ur guys took more profits...FTSE went from 12 to 20 points ie alsi up then another 60...and pound went up too..!! this increaded my target by 90points!!

 

Had to pop in to see the profits...

 

Eid is a day for forgiving and giving charity.... To all those that i have been blunt with, forgive me...and i think i gave my eid pressie for all too enjoy!!

 

Have a blessed day all..

 

Thats it for me today!!

[Aragorn]

Today was the first day I traded the OUV on ALSI cash (and only in my 2nd week of ALSI trading), and thanks to HDB I closed up 175 points. I have just joined his class and I look forward to more active participation in this topic. What can I say that has not yet been said before?

To HDB - Gracias, Merci, Asante, Ngiyabonga, Dankie, Obrigado, teşekkür ederim, Спасибо, Hvala, Ju faleminderit, شكرا لك

[Qbre77]

Excellent work as always HDB, Thanks!

[delta66]

great call..may you have a blessed Eid Mubarak!

 

 

[MiniTrader]

Out with 1 contract for a 160 points.   Letting the other 2 ride.   Great call HDB.   Thank you for your input this morning.

[warnerbroers]

and as i wtire that it is now 46540  against IG 46306....take 200 and run if all ramains the same

great stuff...thanks for sharing 

[BlythZ]

and as i wtire that it is now 46540  against IG 46306....take 200 and run if all ramains the same

Thanks HDB, your calculations are just spot on. 

 

What a good start for the week. 

[UncleC]

AWESOME HDB, 200 points in bag...

Lovely start to week, happy trading all

[Rolycpt]

HDB, you rock!

concur entirely

[K~~]

and as i wtire that it is now 46540  against IG 46306....take 200 and run if all ramains the same

HDB, you rock!

[mx125]

Morning Everyone

 

Thanks for the summary HDB, now I can fix my summary which definitely has a couple of flaws in. We appreciate your selflessness and hard work. I do not know many people that will share their hard work in the way you do. 

 

 

[Qbre77]

and as i wtire that it is now 46540  against IG 46306....take 200 and run if all ramains the same

Morning 

[HDB]

Today is our EID day...I wont be near my screen the whole day...

 

Here is my EID presse to everyone in the forum especially AJ...

 

OUV as at 4am  46500!!  Adjust for FTSE and Dow future as s well as xchange rate towards 8.25am!! 

 

Lets hope you all make money from this call!!

 

 

and as i wtire that it is now 46540  against IG 46306....take 200 and run if all ramains the same

[HDB]

Yummy Yummy, cant wait for Monday!!!!   

 

Today is our EID day...I wont be near my screen the whole day...

 

Here is my EID presse to everyone in the forum especially AJ...

 

OUV as at 4am  46500!!  Adjust for FTSE and Dow future as s well as xchange rate towards 8.25am!! 

 

Lets hope you all make money from this call!!

[Rolycpt]

HDB, Thanks very much for your system and the summary that you have put together! First time ever that I have used a system that works properly and consistently.

[HDB]

Ok here is the summary of the CCI system after all the tweaking:

 

Summary of the system after changes:

 

1. Open a 5 min chart

 

2. plot 3 emas

   a. 34 day/period

   b. 13day/period

   c. 204 day/period

  
 

 

3.Open up the CCI indicator and since we using the 5 min chart, use cci  14

 

4.Zero line on CCI indicator is the key to watch.

 

5. Also plot the daily pivot points on the chart which is very important. Pivots are pre caluclated when u use IG.
However please note that on Mondays IG pivots are incorrect.

 

 

Conditions for Longs for scalping profits +-100points

1.  CCI must be anywhere above 0.
2.  price breaks above 13ema

If 1 and 2 are met, then determine how far price is from 34ema and pivots. If it is less than 40p including spread, do n ot go long until if breaks 34ema ior any pivots.

 

Conditions for Longs for longer trades

Wait for 13ema to break above 34ema to go long whuch is actually a more prudent signal to use
 

 

For Shorts

Reverse of above

 

 

Tips,suggestions and advice - 

 

All notes below assumed you going long for day trading..

 

1.  Only trade if both cci being above 0 and price is above 13 ema cross .Don not jump the boat and

 

assume because one happened, other will follow soon.Must wait for both to happen. You should see an average of 5 trades per day using the 5 minute chart system.

 

2. If you take the long trade and the CCi falls below zero line again, close the trade at a

 

loss as its a failed trade.

 

3. The 204 day/period ema is used as a guide for the trend for the day which is very

 

important. If the 204 period trend is up, IE the slope of the line is sloping

 

upwards,majority of your trades should be on the long side and such longs should be held

 

for a longer period of time compared to shorts.If a short signal is given in up uptrend

 

day, such a trade must be a quick scalp IE do not hold on long for this short. However if

 

you in short and the 204 ema slope starts to straighten from an upward sloping direction,

 

this could mean a change in trend for the day and such short, depending on your risk

 

appetite, could be held on longer until the slope changes downwards in which case you have

 

a winning change of trend direction short.

 

4. Do not , and i repeat, do not trade before 9.15am and after 5.30 pm as the CCI will give

 

false signals.Also try not to trade the system between 2.15pm to 4.00pm (just before and

 

after US markets open).This not a good time to trade as markets are generally going

 

sideways before US markets open and false signals after Us opens when the dumb money gives

 

it the wrong direction in the first hour of 30 minutes of US trading)

 

5. The slope of the CCI curve is very important when it is going above the 0 line. If it

 

corsses above zero at hardly any angle. it means we in a sideways market.The system may be

 

giving a long signal but profits could be very small and it could reverse down below 0

 

slowly down again. My suggestion, because this is a momentum type of system is to only go

 

long if the slope of the zero line breaks above zero at more than 45 degrees. This will

 

normally be noted a longer than normal 5 min green candle on the price bar.

 

6. If you have a very long 5 min candle compared to the last few candles as she pushes

 

through above 0, this is the trade you want to look for where this momentum will shoot it

 

up very quickly.

 

7. The red hump on top for longs and green hump at the bottom for shorts could be referred

 

to or imagined as your bank vault. The more humps at the top for longs means your monies is

 

increasing into your bank vault.

 

8. If the long signal is given but the cut is below 45 degrees on the cci zero line, i said

 

i will not go long as still lack of momentum. However if anywhere above the zero line (

 

even above the +100 line) if momentum reappears with a nice size long candle to the upside,

 

the system still allow you to go long. Do not assume you missed the trade at the zero line

 

cut.

 

9. Do not trade in a side wards trending market even if the signal for long is given and

 

also if the cut is more than 45 degrees. If you understand what the CCI indicator is(a  momentum indicator which measures the deviation of the price from its statistical average -

 

basically an average of the previous price bars)and thus in a sideways market, any slight price movement will cause the CCI indicator to be very sensitive for false signals. Also if the 3, 10 and 34 day/period smas are all bunched very close together, this also suggests a

 

sideways market and here to no trades until a very long price candle suggesting a break

 

out.

 

10. Ideally when you go long, you want to see a significant gap between the 13 day ema and

 

the 34 ema. The price should move from the 13 day to at least the 34 day for it to

 

be a good trade. First resistance should be the 34 day sma. A break of that means continuing

 

to hold the trade, using the 34 day now as support.

11. Pivot points come in very handy to determine support and resistance levels once in a

 

trade.

 

 

 

All the above are for longs. For shorts and depending on your risk appetites, i noticed

 

doing the back test, although you can go short at below CCI 0 as per the system, your risk

 

is actually reduced if you only short if the CCI goes below -60 as you will avoid

 

whiplashes and small profit trades. This i noticed because our markets have been in a

 

serious uptrend last few months. However im prepared to go short below 0 as the chance of

 

catching a day trend reversal becomes easier and more profitable when you catch it early.

 

 

Although the above system is more for Alsi day trading, this system could be used for share

 

trading and investing too. However longer time frames should be used for this.The CCI of 20

 

could be used for share trading  or 50 for share investing. If someone could do some

 

back test results on the share side using the different CCis and smas and post it here, it

 

will be appreciated.

 

 

Exit Stragedy

 

1. I also use other indicators such as Stochs and Macd to help with exits.

 

2. If the 204 period trend is up, hold on to those longs longer as one bank vault hump could

 

be followed by a series of others. For shorts, remember if trend is up, its a very quick in

 

and out, unless you see a trend change happening.

 

3. No fixed rule for exits and it all depends on one risk appetite. Stochs falling below

 

60, CCI falling below +60 , price falling below 34sma or 13ema etc  could be all used as exit signals.

 

Pullbacks, retracements and trend reversal

Trend reversals
How to determine a trend reversal. Please note we are talking a trend for the day only and not for medium or long term.
For trend reversal for the day switch to the 30 minute timeframe and use the 34ema as the trend change indicator.
If price goes blow 34ema on 30 min chart thern trend will be down. If price goes above 34ema on 30min chart then trend has reversed yo upside.

As we using 34ema on a 5 minute chart. this equates to 34/5 =6.8 on a one minute chart. ON a 30minute chart that will be 30 *6.8 = 204 periods.
This is why i use the 204ema on the 5 minute chart as that line is about the same as the 34ema on the 30 minute chart.
So what im saying here is that on the 5 min chart if price breaks above 204ema, then we have a change in trend for the day from short to long and vise versa for short.

Additional Test for trend reversals
longs : 14cci on 30 min chart should be above 0 and 50cci breaking above -100 towards 0 and+ 100
                                 Shorts : 14cci on 30 min chart should be below 0 and   50cci breaking below +100 towards 0 and -100

So now lets assume system gave a  long trade sugnal when the 204 was sloping downards and price was below 204ema.  Price has now moed above 13 and 34ema and now comming to 204ema on 5 min chart.
Remember this signal was a counter trend signal and you were expecting a quick in and out for quick profit.However price is now going higher towards towards 204ema, a possible trend reversal from short to long.
When do you exit this trade? Well i would say watch the 50cci on the 5min and 30min charts. If both  of them are above +100 remin in the trade for a possible trend reversal trade.

Retracements for Longs ( 204ema is sloping upwards and price is above 204ema)
1. We know that if price is above 13ema we will be doing longs. Lets assume price now breaks below 13ema support and heads down towards the 34ema. Now we need more clues to see if it is a retracement.
 You will see the CCI14 move below past zero towards -100 as price moves towards 34ema. CCi 50 should hopefully move from +100 towards the zero line  but remin above 0 for retracement trade to work.
If 34ema support holds, CCI 14 should hook on back towards and above zero line from -100
Trigger for long is  once cci 14 is back above 0 or when prices  rises above 13ema.
Also consider following for retracement trade to work properly

You must wait for price bar to close above 13ema
Price must remain above 13ema and start rising
CCI 50 must be moving towards +100

If price stays above 13ema and  cci14 above +100 and price makes higher highs, then you have caught the perfect retracement trade

You can  use 50cci for exits as you  want to stay in this  trade for as long as possible

 

Thanks guys, at least some appreciate the hard work put in..

 

Going to add another tip here:

 

Do not rely on the slope of the 204ema at opening. It will take at least an hour or 2 for the true slope of the 204 to develop.

U will see on opening of JSE at 9 to 9.15am 204 will be sloping up and down , up and down. If you understand how the cci is calculated then this is normal. Basically you want the 14 by 5 min bars from 8.30am  or maybe from 9am to get a true reflection of the 204 calculation.

 

From experience i noticed that from 9.30 the true trend starts developing on the 204ema but that is left to each ones own discretion and risk appetite.

 

 

Anyone else want to contribute or if i have made any mistakes above or left anything out, please do so with pleasure.  

Edited by HDB, 27 July 2014 - 09:45 AM.

[MiniTrader]

A big thank you from me HDB.  Really great work. 

[Qbre77]

Awesome work HDB, thank you very much!