respect! think you've helped many scalp traders here..big thanks HDB!
HDB CCI Trading System
#1961
Posted 26 July 2014 - 12:58 PM
“melior diabolus quem scies”
#1962
Posted 26 July 2014 - 12:47 PM
Ok here is the summary of the CCI system after all the tweaking:
Summary of the system after changes:
1. Open a 5 min chart
2. plot 3 emas
a. 34 day/period
b. 13day/period
c. 204 day/period
3.Open up the CCI indicator and since we using the 5 min chart, use cci 14
4.Zero line on CCI indicator is the key to watch.
5. Also plot the daily pivot points on the chart which is very important. Pivots are pre caluclated when u use IG.
However please note that on Mondays IG pivots are incorrect.
Conditions for Longs for scalping profits +-100points
1. CCI must be anywhere above 0.
2. price breaks above 13ema
If 1 and 2 are met, then determine how far price is from 34ema and pivots. If it is less than 40p including spread, do n ot go long until if breaks 34ema ior any pivots.
Conditions for Longs for longer trades
Wait for 13ema to break above 34ema to go long whuch is actually a more prudent signal to use
For Shorts
Reverse of above
Tips,suggestions and advice -
All notes below assumed you going long for day trading..
1. Only trade if both cci being above 0 and price is above 13 ema cross .Don not jump the boat and
assume because one happened, other will follow soon.Must wait for both to happen. You should see an average of 5 trades per day using the 5 minute chart system.
2. If you take the long trade and the CCi falls below zero line again, close the trade at a
loss as its a failed trade.
3. The 204 day/period ema is used as a guide for the trend for the day which is very
important. If the 204 period trend is up, IE the slope of the line is sloping
upwards,majority of your trades should be on the long side and such longs should be held
for a longer period of time compared to shorts.If a short signal is given in up uptrend
day, such a trade must be a quick scalp IE do not hold on long for this short. However if
you in short and the 204 ema slope starts to straighten from an upward sloping direction,
this could mean a change in trend for the day and such short, depending on your risk
appetite, could be held on longer until the slope changes downwards in which case you have
a winning change of trend direction short.
4. Do not , and i repeat, do not trade before 9.15am and after 5.30 pm as the CCI will give
false signals.Also try not to trade the system between 2.15pm to 4.00pm (just before and
after US markets open).This not a good time to trade as markets are generally going
sideways before US markets open and false signals after Us opens when the dumb money gives
it the wrong direction in the first hour of 30 minutes of US trading)
5. The slope of the CCI curve is very important when it is going above the 0 line. If it
corsses above zero at hardly any angle. it means we in a sideways market.The system may be
giving a long signal but profits could be very small and it could reverse down below 0
slowly down again. My suggestion, because this is a momentum type of system is to only go
long if the slope of the zero line breaks above zero at more than 45 degrees. This will
normally be noted a longer than normal 5 min green candle on the price bar.
6. If you have a very long 5 min candle compared to the last few candles as she pushes
through above 0, this is the trade you want to look for where this momentum will shoot it
up very quickly.
7. The red hump on top for longs and green hump at the bottom for shorts could be referred
to or imagined as your bank vault. The more humps at the top for longs means your monies is
increasing into your bank vault.
8. If the long signal is given but the cut is below 45 degrees on the cci zero line, i said
i will not go long as still lack of momentum. However if anywhere above the zero line (
even above the +100 line) if momentum reappears with a nice size long candle to the upside,
the system still allow you to go long. Do not assume you missed the trade at the zero line
cut.
9. Do not trade in a side wards trending market even if the signal for long is given and
also if the cut is more than 45 degrees. If you understand what the CCI indicator is(a momentum indicator which measures the deviation of the price from its statistical average -
basically an average of the previous price bars)and thus in a sideways market, any slight price movement will cause the CCI indicator to be very sensitive for false signals. Also if the 3, 10 and 34 day/period smas are all bunched very close together, this also suggests a
sideways market and here to no trades until a very long price candle suggesting a break
out.
10. Ideally when you go long, you want to see a significant gap between the 13 day ema and
the 34 ema. The price should move from the 13 day to at least the 34 day for it to
be a good trade. First resistance should be the 34 day sma. A break of that means continuing
to hold the trade, using the 34 day now as support.
11. Pivot points come in very handy to determine support and resistance levels once in a
trade.
All the above are for longs. For shorts and depending on your risk appetites, i noticed
doing the back test, although you can go short at below CCI 0 as per the system, your risk
is actually reduced if you only short if the CCI goes below -60 as you will avoid
whiplashes and small profit trades. This i noticed because our markets have been in a
serious uptrend last few months. However im prepared to go short below 0 as the chance of
catching a day trend reversal becomes easier and more profitable when you catch it early.
Although the above system is more for Alsi day trading, this system could be used for share
trading and investing too. However longer time frames should be used for this.The CCI of 20
could be used for share trading or 50 for share investing. If someone could do some
back test results on the share side using the different CCis and smas and post it here, it
will be appreciated.
Exit Stragedy
1. I also use other indicators such as Stochs and Macd to help with exits.
2. If the 204 period trend is up, hold on to those longs longer as one bank vault hump could
be followed by a series of others. For shorts, remember if trend is up, its a very quick in
and out, unless you see a trend change happening.
3. No fixed rule for exits and it all depends on one risk appetite. Stochs falling below
60, CCI falling below +60 , price falling below 34sma or 13ema etc could be all used as exit signals.
Pullbacks, retracements and trend reversal
Trend reversals
How to determine a trend reversal. Please note we are talking a trend for the day only and not for medium or long term.
For trend reversal for the day switch to the 30 minute timeframe and use the 34ema as the trend change indicator.
If price goes blow 34ema on 30 min chart thern trend will be down. If price goes above 34ema on 30min chart then trend has reversed yo upside.
As we using 34ema on a 5 minute chart. this equates to 34/5 =6.8 on a one minute chart. ON a 30minute chart that will be 30 *6.8 = 204 periods.
This is why i use the 204ema on the 5 minute chart as that line is about the same as the 34ema on the 30 minute chart.
So what im saying here is that on the 5 min chart if price breaks above 204ema, then we have a change in trend for the day from short to long and vise versa for short.
Additional Test for trend reversals
longs : 14cci on 30 min chart should be above 0 and 50cci breaking above -100 towards 0 and+ 100
Shorts : 14cci on 30 min chart should be below 0 and 50cci breaking below +100 towards 0 and -100
So now lets assume system gave a long trade sugnal when the 204 was sloping downards and price was below 204ema. Price has now moed above 13 and 34ema and now comming to 204ema on 5 min chart.
Remember this signal was a counter trend signal and you were expecting a quick in and out for quick profit.However price is now going higher towards towards 204ema, a possible trend reversal from short to long.
When do you exit this trade? Well i would say watch the 50cci on the 5min and 30min charts. If both of them are above +100 remin in the trade for a possible trend reversal trade.
Retracements for Longs ( 204ema is sloping upwards and price is above 204ema)
1. We know that if price is above 13ema we will be doing longs. Lets assume price now breaks below 13ema support and heads down towards the 34ema. Now we need more clues to see if it is a retracement.
You will see the CCI14 move below past zero towards -100 as price moves towards 34ema. CCi 50 should hopefully move from +100 towards the zero line but remin above 0 for retracement trade to work.
If 34ema support holds, CCI 14 should hook on back towards and above zero line from -100
Trigger for long is once cci 14 is back above 0 or when prices rises above 13ema.
Also consider following for retracement trade to work properly
You must wait for price bar to close above 13ema
Price must remain above 13ema and start rising
CCI 50 must be moving towards +100
If price stays above 13ema and cci14 above +100 and price makes higher highs, then you have caught the perfect retracement trade
You can use 50cci for exits as you want to stay in this trade for as long as possible
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1963
Posted 25 July 2014 - 09:28 PM
also using the HDB system where 13ema cuts 34ema on 5 min chart today gave following 2 excellent signals:
1. LOng at 10.20 around 46450...taken profits anything higher than 15.15 cut at 46529
2.Short at 15.15 around 46496 till current as 34ema still below 13ema!!
3. If you missed 2 above , then at 16.35 change of trend for the day confirmed when price fell below 204ema to go short!!!
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1964
Posted 25 July 2014 - 09:19 PM
and who picked up the head and shoulder on 5 min chart..??
neckline broke at 46430 at 16.45pm....
projected from a high of 46585, takes you down 155 points to 46275...
Low of IG at 17.20 = 46275
It was just red candles all the way down from 46430 to 46275....
Edited by HDB, 25 July 2014 - 09:20 PM.
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1965
Posted 25 July 2014 - 09:12 PM
Yummy Yummy, cant wait for Monday!!!!
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1966
Posted 25 July 2014 - 06:46 PM
Its Either Everybody has gone home.. or eagerly waiting to see what happens after US opening?!!
Have a great weekend Ladies and Gentlemen... oh not sure if there any ladies here...
HDB, thanks again for your advice, its feels great to be back in the market, and if EID is
on Monday, wishing you and your family a very happy and Blessed one!! Slms
Playa you welcome....and same greetings to you and your family too!!
Have a good one!!
While we enjoy , may God Almighty Bless all the people suffering around the World especially our mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters and children of Palestine and make it easy for them!!
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1967
Posted 25 July 2014 - 03:36 PM
Its Either Everybody has gone home.. or eagerly waiting to see what happens after US opening?!!
Have a great weekend Ladies and Gentlemen... oh not sure if there any ladies here...
HDB, thanks again for your advice, its feels great to be back in the market, and if EID is
on Monday, wishing you and your family a very happy and Blessed one!! Slms
#1968
Posted 25 July 2014 - 11:54 AM
Jislaaik HDB. I hope you mean 46860
Judge your success by what you had to give up in order to get it
#1969
Posted 25 July 2014 - 11:30 AM
if price breaks above pivot of 46530, then big upside as that will a break of neckline of inverse h & s in 5 min chart...target then of 45860!!!
and I think we will get there later today if neckline breaks!! bust with right shoulder at moment
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1970
Posted 25 July 2014 - 10:25 AM
Did anyone else call this long?
#1971
Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:59 AM
Thank you HDB, closed at 46505 for a good 91 points
me too...3 contracts closed at 46500
Edited by HDB, 25 July 2014 - 09:00 AM.
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1972
Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:58 AM
Thank you HDB, closed at 46505 for a good 91 points
#1973
Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:46 AM
hi risk though hay!!
Yep.. but, you are the MASTER!!
Edited by Playa, 25 July 2014 - 08:47 AM.
#1974
Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:44 AM
J Mbrk!! What a call HDB!!! Great stuff Man!!!
Thank You very much!!
hi risk though hay!!
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1975
Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:43 AM
wait for about 30 p more and run !!!
J Mbrk!! What a call HDB!!! Great stuff Man!!!
Thank You very much!!
#1976
Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:43 AM
latest 46556,,,but close before 9.05am even if lower!!
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1977
Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:37 AM
boom boom time boys
wait for about 30 p more and run !!!
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1978
Posted 25 July 2014 - 08:34 AM
boom boom time boys
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1979
Posted 24 July 2014 - 03:29 PM
check the 15.05 perfect short signal....
1. price below 204ema
2.. 13ema cuts below 34ema and booom...no headwinds until S2...a cool 100p!!
HDB
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
#1980
Posted 24 July 2014 - 12:08 PM
No Hassle MX.. I am learning everyday.. get the book or ebook, "trading in the zone" this book in my humble opinion is the best reads especially to help you manage your emotions/ mental frame when trading.. btw overall trend is bearish
Thanks Playa, will do as I some days think I am mental for doing this.