116 replies to this topic

[JK001]

Thats your middle\upper class opinion. Home Internet access is a luxury for the majority, let alone a Netflix subscription and huge mobile data bundles which will make what you're claiming sustainable (having a smartphone does not mean that the majority have the data to watch a season of Shameless etc on your mobile device). Traditional broadcasting still has a place for many, especially technophobes and the elderly. Ellies is also more than a TV company. The renewable energy business plays a very relevant role at the moment and given our climate , its a no brainer to build less dependency on parastatals like Eskom, and besides, they're now profitable with no challenges in sight. 

 

Why would i not take a punt at these levels and potentially become a millionaire in a few years time with a minimal investment?

agree that it is a punt - that is a good enough motivation  

one thing we can agree on, data is expensive comparatively, lot of pressure from ICASA to lower (28% down YTD).  That is in particular why I like blue telecoms as they are experimenting with 'black' as free view including data.  They are actually levering data to get insights to consumer behavior. 

 

My parents are the last generation with technophobes (bar a couple of exceptions), the UX focus makes this seamless and a non-event.  So if we can agree that digital TV is not the motivation,bu rather digital content, then we are on par.

 

With regards to renewable energy, you are spot on. that is the next decade of financial revolution.  see recent articles on south america green power. But, yet again not much differentiation or IP (solar, wind energy, pick your choice).  Problem really with green energy is the storage of electricity.   Batteries are a dead horse that seems maxed out, you are quite clued up, so do me a favour a look at EESTOR corp in US that is working on smart capacitors, if you can remove a ton (weight) of batteries from the cars you have a winner.

[Spell Jammer]

Happy to eat humble pie when (if) it happens, digital in true sense means end of delivering boxes and decoders, but delivering content ubiquitous.  One form of digital is data as a service:  Netflix, Showmax (sort out the parsing).   You would be amazed to know about 76% of SA have smartphones across income groups (source Informal market segment report, Genesis, not sure I can share that with you because of NDA).  IMHO gov is running down a strait cul-de-sac, the rest of the world is about 10 years ahead of that.

Thats your middle\upper class opinion. Home Internet access is a luxury for the majority, let alone a Netflix subscription and huge mobile data bundles which will make what you're claiming sustainable (having a smartphone does not mean that the majority have the data to watch a season of Shameless etc on your mobile device). Traditional broadcasting still has a place for many, especially technophobes and the elderly. Ellies is also more than a TV company. The renewable energy business plays a very relevant role at the moment and given our climate , its a no brainer to build less dependency on parastatals like Eskom, and besides, they're now profitable with no challenges in sight. 

 

Why would i not take a punt at these levels and potentially become a millionaire in a few years time with a minimal investment?

Edited by Spell Jammer, 02 October 2018 - 08:57 PM.

[JK001]

You've missed the point im afraid. Not everyone gets a free setup. Post office delivery also means stufall since Ellies has been paid upfront to deliver a certain number to Gov as part of the FIRST phase. Joe public who have the means have to buy their own..

Happy to eat humble pie when (if) it happens, digital in true sense means end of delivering boxes and decoders, but delivering content ubiquitous.  One form of digital is data as a service:  Netflix, Showmax (sort out the parsing).   You would be amazed to know about 76% of SA have smartphones across income groups (source Informal market segment report, Genesis, not sure I can share that with you because of NDA).  IMHO gov is running down a strait cul-de-sac, the rest of the world is about 10 years ahead of that.

[Spell Jammer]

Agree, and easy to copy business, no significant tech or IP or patents from Ellies that make's them a front-runner that I could research, open to alternate convincing.

 

Fact that post office is involved in digital delivery means yawn-yawn.  Post office struggle to deliver ordinary mail, no wonder postnet is eating their breakfast, lunch and dinner and snacks in between.

 

Anc.Inc. struggling to keep head above water with growing parasite grants encouraging population growth effectively lowering GDP.  Expect no miracles in getting funding for going digital.

 

With elections around the corner, focus will be to hypnotize voters and not on digital deadline.   Just my view on everything that has government involvement or intervention turns into unintended consequences.

You've missed the point im afraid. Not everyone gets a free setup. Post office delivery also means stufall since Ellies has been paid upfront to deliver a certain number to Gov as part of the FIRST phase. Joe public who have the means have to buy their own..

[Spell Jammer]

Current manufacturers will probably get the bulk of wholesale.. Ellie's maybe a small piece of that pie ...

This makes no sense. Other manufacturers don't have a retail presence on the scale that Ellies does. If you are telling me that a South African can walk into Game, Makro, Dion etc and buy Temic, QEC etc products on the same scale as Ellies then I will agree. This is clearly not the case though.

 

"While the government is set to give free STBs away to only the poorest of the poor households – around 5,2 million TV households – it still leaves millions of South African TV households out in the TV cold.

These TV households are going to discover that they have to pay out of their own pocket hundreds of rand just to keep watching their Generations, Muvhango and Rhythm City on the SABC and e.tv when the existing analogue TV signals are eventually switched off.

In its presentation to parliament, the department of communications revealed that about 650 000 STBs without any encryption system have been manufactured in South Africa and have been delivered to the South African Post Office. The Post Office will have to help with distribution.

These STBs that were ordered and manufactured in bulk cost the government (including VAT) R687,94 (CZ Electronics), R689,26 (BUA Africa) and R689,26 (Leratidima) each.

Ellies satellite dishes cost R441,71 and antennas from Temic Manufacturing and QEC cost R135,09 and R177,70 each.

The costing gives a shocking indication of what South Africans who don't qualify for a DTT subsidy will have to pay commercially when they are forced to buy a STB and an antenna for their TV sets."

Good luck picking up TV signals in rural areas purely with terrestrial antennas.. The Ellies business model is going nowhere, it will be growing.

Edited by Spell Jammer, 02 October 2018 - 08:29 PM.

[JK001]

Current manufacturers will probably get the bulk of wholesale.. Ellie's maybe a small piece of that pie ...

Agree, and easy to copy business, no significant tech or IP or patents from Ellies that make's them a front-runner that I could research, open to alternate convincing.

 

Fact that post office is involved in digital delivery means yawn-yawn.  Post office struggle to deliver ordinary mail, no wonder postnet is eating their breakfast, lunch and dinner and snacks in between.

 

Anc.Inc. struggling to keep head above water with growing parasite grants encouraging population growth effectively lowering GDP.  Expect no miracles in getting funding for going digital.

 

With elections around the corner, focus will be to hypnotize voters and not on digital deadline.   Just my view on everything that has government involvement or intervention turns into unintended consequences.

[realkingkam]

5.5 Million poor households (government subsidy). What about middle class south Africans watching SABC exclusively? Will they not need to migrate and purchase set top boxes? Or does only 10% of the population watch SABC?

Current manufacturers will probably get the bulk of wholesale.. Ellie's maybe a small piece of that pie ...

[Spell Jammer]

5.5 million . No where close over the last 3 years .

5.5 Million poor households (government subsidy). What about middle class south Africans watching SABC exclusively? Will they not need to migrate and purchase set top boxes? Or does only 10% of the population watch SABC?

[realkingkam]

So digital migration is only being done to 1.5 million households? How many households was your tender for?

5.5 million . No where close over the last 3 years .

[Spell Jammer]

I'm part one of the 26 companies that got the tender I attend the weekly meetings at the DOC ... the contract is coming to an end in dec ...

So digital migration is only being done to 1.5 million households? How many households was your tender for?

Edited by Spell Jammer, 02 October 2018 - 03:35 PM.

[realkingkam]

No its not.

https://www.news24.c...adline-20180123

I'm part one of the 26 companies that got the tender I attend the weekly meetings at the DOC ... the contract is coming to an end in dec ...

[Spell Jammer]

Not sure on this topic but that article 10 months old?

Doesn't matter, additional funding is still required, read up on the numbers of installations required.

 

"All households still using traditional "analogue" frequencies, as opposed to those who've purchased satellite television, will require set-top boxes from the government by the deadline.

Government's initial target was to provide five million boxes in total.

 

Thiti said the department had budgeted R2.45bn for early phases of the project, which was only sufficient to create 1.5 million "kits", including set-top boxes, aerials and installation costs.

 

Of those, 850 000 have been delivered to South African Post Office warehouses, where they await national rollout.

Thus far, only 23 000 installations have been completed in the Northern Cape."

The last time i checked, SA had a population of 50 million plus (so this is a nice long term revenue stream for Ellies and this phase only caters for 1.5 million people), even if we say only 20% watch the SABC  and are of age to own a unit, that's 10 Million devices required.

Edited by Spell Jammer, 02 October 2018 - 02:06 PM.

[Ms Jet]

Not sure on this topic but that article 10 months old?

[Spell Jammer]

Digital migration is nearing completion. It has been one useless tender in terms of profitability

No its not.

 

https://www.news24.c...adline-20180123

[realkingkam]

Im stocking up at these levels, only a matter of time before this takes off. They are profitable again and Digital Migration is imminent. While waiting for Digital in SA they have built a strong African Aerial strategy as well. Eskom and its ridiculous tariff increases are also driving more consumers off the grid with Solar, inverters etc which also plays into their hands. Definitely see a future value of R0.40-R1.00 in the next year or two if they keep this up and at these levels you can build up millions in shares.

Digital migration is nearing completion. It has been one useless tender in terms of profitability

[Ms Jet]

Great may buy some more

[Spell Jammer]

Any ideas when ellies price likely to increase...for results share price seems low

Im stocking up at these levels, only a matter of time before this takes off. They are profitable again and Digital Migration is imminent. While waiting for Digital in SA they have built a strong African Aerial strategy as well. Eskom and its ridiculous tariff increases are also driving more consumers off the grid with Solar, inverters etc which also plays into their hands. Definitely see a future value of R0.40-R1.00 in the next year or two if they keep this up and at these levels you can build up millions in shares.

[Ms Jet]

Any ideas when ellies price likely to increase...for results share price seems low

[Ms Jet]

Cool

[Spell Jammer]

Bought some more ellies at .23 couldn't resist

Nice, got some at .22