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#41 Polly

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 11:28 AM

Jasco been there and paid my school fees.

 

Bought in about 2006 at +R4.00 per share.  

5 years ago was trading around +-R1.50

Added to that losing trade big ..averaged at R2.50 with intention of jumping out  on any bounce above R2.00

 

Did that to +-R2.20 and sold the lot at a small loss..

 

 

Now trading at +-R.60 c

 

 

Once again looks cheap..

 

But in one of those 70% bracket i mentioned.


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#42 Spell Jammer

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 09:24 AM

http://www.sharenet....eq=31&scode=JSC

 

dangerous comparison

They suspended their own shares because if releasing an incorrect statement, don't see any Steinhoff type behavior here.


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#43 Lionelza1

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 01:03 PM

Do services industries like this not have higher debt to equity ratios than normal companies? If i compare Ellies to one of its competitors Jasco Holdings, you see a similar trend there?

http://www.sharenet....eq=31&scode=JSC

 

dangerous comparison


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#44 Spell Jammer

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 07:44 AM

Just looked at 2018 financials...Debt to equity stands at 1.44

 

No freebies from Mr market again....

Do services industries like this not have higher debt to equity ratios than normal companies? If i compare Ellies to one of its competitors Jasco Holdings, you see a similar trend there?


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#45 Polly

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 03:41 PM

key to this companys future success is not profit after taxes but positve cash flow  IE is it generating any cash.

 

I havent followed it so have not checked last financials as i keep away from these dodgy companies.

 

 

I know a few years back was flying at over R12.00 and every punter was punting it ...but there was big profit with no positive cash flow....Took a big bang and now 20c

 

So profit figure means kniks and Mr market in all likelyhood still punishing it cos of lack of cash flow..IE survival depends on banks

 

 

But as i said i havent  looked so things could have changed but MR market still not liking the story

 

 

Just looked at 2018 financials...Debt to equity stands at 1.44

 

No freebies from Mr market again....


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#46 Polly

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 03:19 PM

key to this companys future success is not profit after taxes but positve cash flow  IE is it generating any cash.

 

I havent followed it so have not checked last financials as i keep away from these dodgy companies.

 

 

I know a few years back was flying at over R12.00 and every punter was punting it ...but there was big profit with no positive cash flow....Took a big bang and now 20c

 

So profit figure means kniks and Mr market in all likelyhood still punishing it cos of lack of cash flow..IE survival depends on banks

 

 

But as i said i havent  looked so things could have changed but MR market still not liking the story


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#47 Ms Jet

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 02:59 PM

Listen from 47:30 onwards. Its about getting in early on this one before the Hype cycle. The company has gone from a 249mil loss the previous year to a 38 mil profit. The turnaround strategy appears to be in effect.

 

Thanks..


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#48 Spell Jammer

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 02:45 PM

Hi,

 

What make you think results will be up? At last results people were saying share worth about 35 but sitting at about 19....Regards,

Listen from 47:30 onwards. Its about getting in early on this one before the Hype cycle. The company has gone from a 249mil loss the previous year to a 38 mil profit. The turnaround strategy appears to be in effect.

 


Edited by Spell Jammer, 19 October 2018 - 02:50 PM.

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#49 Ms Jet

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 01:51 PM

Want to get in here, but the trend still seems to be down. Results and possible trading update due before year end that will hopefully turn things around for them.

 

Soon ... 

Hi,

 

What make you think results will be up? At last results people were saying share worth about 35 but sitting at about 19....Regards,


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#50 Shi

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 10:00 AM

Want to get in here, but the trend still seems to be down. Results and possible trading update due before year end that will hopefully turn things around for them.

 

Soon ... 


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β€œOne day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#51 JK001

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:21 PM

Thats your middle\upper class opinion. Home Internet access is a luxury for the majority, let alone a Netflix subscription and huge mobile data bundles which will make what you're claiming sustainable (having a smartphone does not mean that the majority have the data to watch a season of Shameless etc on your mobile device). Traditional broadcasting still has a place for many, especially technophobes and the elderly. Ellies is also more than a TV company. The renewable energy business plays a very relevant role at the moment and given our climate , its a no brainer to build less dependency on parastatals like Eskom, and besides, they're now profitable with no challenges in sight. 

 

Why would i not take a punt at these levels and potentially become a millionaire in a few years time with a minimal investment?

agree that it is a punt - that is a good enough motivation :D 

one thing we can agree on, data is expensive comparatively, lot of pressure from ICASA to lower (28% down YTD).  That is in particular why I like blue telecoms as they are experimenting with 'black' as free view including data.  They are actually levering data to get insights to consumer behavior. 

 

My parents are the last generation with technophobes (bar a couple of exceptions), the UX focus makes this seamless and a non-event.  So if we can agree that digital TV is not the motivation,bu rather digital content, then we are on par.

 

With regards to renewable energy, you are spot on. that is the next decade of financial revolution.  see recent articles on south america green power. But, yet again not much differentiation or IP (solar, wind energy, pick your choice).  Problem really with green energy is the storage of electricity.   Batteries are a dead horse that seems maxed out, you are quite clued up, so do me a favour a look at EESTOR corp in US that is working on smart capacitors, if you can remove a ton (weight) of batteries from the cars you have a winner.


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#52 Spell Jammer

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:55 PM

Happy to eat humble pie when (if) it happens, digital in true sense means end of delivering boxes and decoders, but delivering content ubiquitous.  One form of digital is data as a service:  Netflix, Showmax (sort out the parsing).   You would be amazed to know about 76% of SA have smartphones across income groups (source Informal market segment report, Genesis, not sure I can share that with you because of NDA).  IMHO gov is running down a strait cul-de-sac, the rest of the world is about 10 years ahead of that.

Thats your middle\upper class opinion. Home Internet access is a luxury for the majority, let alone a Netflix subscription and huge mobile data bundles which will make what you're claiming sustainable (having a smartphone does not mean that the majority have the data to watch a season of Shameless etc on your mobile device). Traditional broadcasting still has a place for many, especially technophobes and the elderly. Ellies is also more than a TV company. The renewable energy business plays a very relevant role at the moment and given our climate , its a no brainer to build less dependency on parastatals like Eskom, and besides, they're now profitable with no challenges in sight. 

 

Why would i not take a punt at these levels and potentially become a millionaire in a few years time with a minimal investment?


Edited by Spell Jammer, 02 October 2018 - 08:57 PM.

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#53 JK001

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:46 PM

You've missed the point im afraid. Not everyone gets a free setup. Post office delivery also means stufall since Ellies has been paid upfront to deliver a certain number to Gov as part of the FIRST phase. Joe public who have the means have to buy their own..

Happy to eat humble pie when (if) it happens, digital in true sense means end of delivering boxes and decoders, but delivering content ubiquitous.  One form of digital is data as a service:  Netflix, Showmax (sort out the parsing).   You would be amazed to know about 76% of SA have smartphones across income groups (source Informal market segment report, Genesis, not sure I can share that with you because of NDA).  IMHO gov is running down a strait cul-de-sac, the rest of the world is about 10 years ahead of that.


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#54 Spell Jammer

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:33 PM

Agree, and easy to copy business, no significant tech or IP or patents from Ellies that make's them a front-runner that I could research, open to alternate convincing.

 

Fact that post office is involved in digital delivery means yawn-yawn.  Post office struggle to deliver ordinary mail, no wonder postnet is eating their breakfast, lunch and dinner and snacks in between.

 

Anc.Inc. struggling to keep head above water with growing parasite grants encouraging population growth effectively lowering GDP.  Expect no miracles in getting funding for going digital.

 

With elections around the corner, focus will be to hypnotize voters and not on digital deadline.   Just my view on everything that has government involvement or intervention turns into unintended consequences.

You've missed the point im afraid. Not everyone gets a free setup. Post office delivery also means stufall since Ellies has been paid upfront to deliver a certain number to Gov as part of the FIRST phase. Joe public who have the means have to buy their own..


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#55 Spell Jammer

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:28 PM

Current manufacturers will probably get the bulk of wholesale.. Ellie's maybe a small piece of that pie ...

This makes no sense. Other manufacturers don't have a retail presence on the scale that Ellies does. If you are telling me that a South African can walk into Game, Makro, Dion etc and buy Temic, QEC etc products on the same scale as Ellies then I will agree. This is clearly not the case though.

 

"While the government is set to give free STBs away to only the poorest of the poor households – around 5,2 million TV households – it still leaves millions of South African TV households out in the TV cold.

These TV households are going to discover that they have to pay out of their own pocket hundreds of rand just to keep watching their GenerationsMuvhango and Rhythm City on the SABC and e.tv when the existing analogue TV signals are eventually switched off.

In its presentation to parliament, the department of communications revealed that about 650 000 STBs without any encryption system have been manufactured in South Africa and have been delivered to the South African Post Office. The Post Office will have to help with distribution.

These STBs that were ordered and manufactured in bulk cost the government (including VAT) R687,94 (CZ Electronics), R689,26 (BUA Africa) and R689,26 (Leratidima) each.

Ellies satellite dishes cost R441,71 and antennas from Temic Manufacturing and QEC cost R135,09 and R177,70 each.

The costing gives a shocking indication of what South Africans who don't qualify for a DTT subsidy will have to pay commercially when they are forced to buy a STB and an antenna for their TV sets."

Good luck picking up TV signals in rural areas purely with terrestrial antennas.. The Ellies business model is going nowhere, it will be growing.


Edited by Spell Jammer, 02 October 2018 - 08:29 PM.

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#56 JK001

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:17 PM

Current manufacturers will probably get the bulk of wholesale.. Ellie's maybe a small piece of that pie ...

Agree, and easy to copy business, no significant tech or IP or patents from Ellies that make's them a front-runner that I could research, open to alternate convincing.

 

Fact that post office is involved in digital delivery means yawn-yawn.  Post office struggle to deliver ordinary mail, no wonder postnet is eating their breakfast, lunch and dinner and snacks in between.

 

Anc.Inc. struggling to keep head above water with growing parasite grants encouraging population growth effectively lowering GDP.  Expect no miracles in getting funding for going digital.

 

With elections around the corner, focus will be to hypnotize voters and not on digital deadline.   Just my view on everything that has government involvement or intervention turns into unintended consequences.


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#57 realkingkam

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 07:41 PM

5.5 Million poor households (government subsidy). What about middle class south Africans watching SABC exclusively? Will they not need to migrate and purchase set top boxes? Or does only 10% of the population watch SABC?

Current manufacturers will probably get the bulk of wholesale.. Ellie's maybe a small piece of that pie ...
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#58 Spell Jammer

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:43 PM

5.5 million . No where close over the last 3 years .

5.5 Million poor households (government subsidy). What about middle class south Africans watching SABC exclusively? Will they not need to migrate and purchase set top boxes? Or does only 10% of the population watch SABC?


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#59 realkingkam

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:08 PM

So digital migration is only being done to 1.5 million households? How many households was your tender for?

5.5 million . No where close over the last 3 years .
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#60 Spell Jammer

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Posted 02 October 2018 - 03:31 PM

I'm part one of the 26 companies that got the tender I attend the weekly meetings at the DOC ... the contract is coming to an end in dec ...

So digital migration is only being done to 1.5 million households? How many households was your tender for?


Edited by Spell Jammer, 02 October 2018 - 03:35 PM.

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