501 replies to this topic

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Hi Pilot,

 

Great thread, been following it since you started it.

 

I was wondering how you determine in which way the trend is heading? Is it through technical analysis?

[Pilotpilot]

Hi Everyone

 

Attached is the updated spreadsheet.

 

The portfolio did very well today, gaining R18 980 (6,85%).  4 New shorts were added and did very well, only SAC came back to end the day up.

 

Of the running shares, NPN and SOL has broken trend, and I have added exit prices on these. GLN is also a concern, but is a hold for another day.

 

The trend seems to be that the Industrials, Financials and Retailers, will be following the downtrend, and the "Resources (including gold ) and Construction" will be recovering somewhat.

 

The Rand is weakening by the day, and that could be the main reason for the resources and the shares with foreign interests to show upward momentum.

 

Till later

 

P

 

Attached Files

•  Trending Shares (Week 23).xlsx   43.53KB   101 downloads

[Bits]

Thanks for powering this thread PilotPilot.. here's hoping PPC doesn't have concrete boots 

[New_kid]

Hi pilot thanks for the great advise. I'm sure most of us would like to know this but you keep talking about you triggers and indicators. Would you mind giving your break down of your ticks/rules that a trade needs to make for you to consider it?<br /><br />Thank in advance. 😄

[mahomedm]

Many thanks for the analysis. Much appreciated.

[mahomedm]

Hi Mahomedm,

Welcome to the forum and the PPC followers.

Shoprite has broken a major bull support line on 19 May and tested it on the 22 of May. It also tested the downchannel resistance on the 28th of May and that was the day I shorted it. It triggered all the signals for a beartrend to come. It didn't make such a strong entry and the bear trend is reasonably flat, thus the 1 star rating. It will probably not drop as much as some of the other shares in the market, but it will have to find new support. The next support is the 10 year bull support @ around R154-00.

DSY has also broken its 7 month Bull support on the 6th of May. The main trend is down for the short term, with most of the indicators showing different directions, so this will be a more eratic downtrend.
It is right on its 200d wma (200 day weighted mean average) and could have a bounce from here. It's next support is R115-00 and then R105-00.

My feeling on the whole market atm is bearish (except for a few shares). I have a gut feel the ALSI might find support @ 49000, which is another 6% off. This will make this a 12% correction in total. But the downtrend could continue. I only work on my triggers and indicators most of the time and will only have an idea if we get to 49000. The smart guys on the "ALSI trades" topic, would give a better guess as to where we might turn, with the wave counts and points.

I can't tell you what to do, but will gladly share my view.

Make an educated decision, and stick with it.

Good luck.

P

[Pilotpilot]

Hi Pilot. Many thanks for your posts and trades. I managed to get in on ppc at 19.8.

I am also holding Shoprite and discovery and not sure whether to take my losses or hope for a recovery

 

Hi Mahomedm,

 

Welcome to the forum and the PPC followers.

 

Shoprite has broken a major bull support line on 19 May and tested it on the 22 of May. It also tested the downchannel resistance on the 28th of May and that was the day I shorted it. It triggered all the signals for a beartrend to come. It didn't make such a strong entry and the bear trend is reasonably flat, thus the 1 star rating. It will probably not drop as much as some of the other shares in the market, but it will have to find new support. The next support is the 10 year bull support @ around R154-00. 

 

DSY has also broken its 7 month Bull support on the 6th of May. The main trend is down for the short term, with most of the indicators showing different directions, so this will be a more eratic downtrend.

It is right on its 200d wma (200 day weighted mean average) and could have a bounce from here. It's next support is R115-00 and then R105-00.

 

My feeling on the whole market atm is bearish (except for a few shares). I have a gut feel the ALSI might find support @ 49000, which is another 6% off. This will make this a 12% correction in total. But the downtrend could continue. I only work on my triggers and indicators most of the time and will only have an idea if we get to 49000. The smart guys on the "ALSI trades" topic, would give a better guess as to where we might turn, with the wave counts and points.

 

I can't tell you what to do, but will gladly share my view.

 

Make an educated decision, and stick with it.

 

Good luck.

 

P

[yusufm]

Thanks yusufm,

You are creaming it on the Share Picks Compition (Day 1)!! I see you got some gold in there.

I just had a look at HAR and SGL after closing, and they are really turning bullish. Although not all my triggers hit, they have all in fact, broken trend. (My bad on the bounce )
I picked gold shares in the middle of last month, as I though they would do well with a correction in the market. Now I wish I picked the gold shares this month.

I'm also holding thumbs for PPC to do well.

Haha this always happens to me. I'll lead for a couple days after I submit and then drift downwards over the next few weeks. FFB I have mainly because it dropped unreasonably. Will look to get 7%+ there, but mainly banking on the gold shares.
I supposed a strong green day tomorrow would confirm a bullish trend? Im not too good with the Technical Analysis. Although I do expect to see a slightly red day tomorrow...

[Pilotpilot]

Pilot, awesome thread, look forward to your spread sheet every evening. Thx

 

Cheers Saint,

 

I can't wait to start working on it every evening.

[Pilotpilot]

Really enjoying following your trades over the past few weeks Pilot. Really insightful

I've taken a long on PPC as well at 2015c. Let's hope that support holds

 

Was today's recovery on the gold stocks just a bounce before a continued fall? I wonder....

 

Thanks yusufm,

 

You are creaming it on the Share Picks Compition (Day 1)!!   I see you got some gold in there.

 

I just had a look at HAR and SGL after closing, and they are really turning bullish. Although not all my triggers hit, they have all in fact, broken trend. (My bad on the bounce )

I picked gold shares in the middle of last month, as I though they would do well with a correction in the market. Now I wish I picked the gold shares this month.

 

I'm also holding thumbs for PPC to do well.

[mahomedm]

Hi Pilot. Many thanks for your posts and trades. I managed to get in on ppc at 19.8.

I am also holding Shoprite and discovery and not sure whether to take my losses or hope for a recovery

[saint1]

Pilot, awesome thread, look forward to your spread sheet every evening. Thx

[SyndriN]

Really enjoying following your trades over the past few weeks Pilot. Really insightful

I've taken a long on PPC as well at 2015c. Let's hope that support holds

 

Was today's recovery on the gold stocks just a bounce before a continued fall? I wonder....

Welcome to PPC   

[yusufm]

Really enjoying following your trades over the past few weeks Pilot. Really insightful

I've taken a long on PPC as well at 2015c. Let's hope that support holds

 

Was today's recovery on the gold stocks just a bounce before a continued fall? I wonder....

[SyndriN]

Agreed 😊

[Pilotpilot]

PPC really testing that R20.00 hard today

 

Not a bad thing. The bears just want to make sure if they can get through there. Now they know.

[SyndriN]

PPC really testing that R20.00 hard today

[SyndriN]

Could slap myself in the face for not shorting HAR, was so close to doing it then forgot :/

[SyndriN]

Very nice!

 

This is a super long and shouldn't have a problem getting to R24-00 now. Trend is in place! 

Yeah I am in this for the long haul, R24-00 will be amazing (especially since i doubled up) even SGL is in the green for a change (sorcery) 

[Pilotpilot]

Hi P

 

Noticed the support bounce multiple times today as well, i did double up yes at about 20c less than my calculation last night which i am happy about My first position is from 19.67ish 

 

Very nice!

 

This is a super long and shouldn't have a problem getting to R24-00 now. Trend is in place!