501 replies to this topic

[Pilotpilot]

Morning Gents

 

I had a long look at the ALSI.

 

It turned bullish on Friday 15 May in my books. It had 1 strong day on Monday the 18th and then 5 down days in a row.

It broke the support line on Thursday and has continued to break further.

 

This is a concern. We have another support line @ 53900 at the moment, but also a resistance that caused the break.

 

In the next few days one of these will have to be broken (Support or Resistance).

 

I am keeping a close eye on the 53900 support. If we close below this, I will take a more bearish approach with the portfolio. If the resistance gets broken, I will have a net long position on the portfolio.

 

For the interim, I am changing to a more neutral stance with the portfolio, until after the bulls and the bears have had their fight!

 

Attached is the chart showing my view.

 

Regards

 

Pilot

Attached Files

•  ALSI.docx   230.99KB   24 downloads

[Pilotpilot]

Hi Gents

 

Just a quick update after market close.

 

We managed to get the long trade on DSY today.

 

On the running shares LON was the best performer, dropping 4,65%, with IMP also doing well, down 2,47%.

 

Of the long positions, TFG and TRU (in the same sector) also contributed to the R 10 277 gain on the portfolio today. See Trending  Shares attached.

 

I also closed JDG today.

 

I will update and add the new trades later tonight. Will also have a serious look at the ALSI.

 

Till Later

 

Pilot

 

 

Attached Files

•  Trending Shares (Week 22).xlsx   40.53KB   25 downloads

[Pilotpilot]

My analysis pointing to a bigger top in place for all equities and down for the next 5 months, call it a mini bearmarket that has begun!

 

You can clearly see it on the monthly chart, for the Top40 that is, should whack all sectors badly!

 

Protect your capital!

 

A

 

Thanks Argento

 

Will have a good look at the ALSI tonight. Market is confusing at the best of times

[Argento]

I fear the same thing is happening to MDC that happened to APN.

 

It has broken the long term Bull support (to the bottom) and is testing this resistance line at the moment @ R111-70.

 

I think the hedge funds are at work here and I suspect a strong downtrend over the next week or two.

 

Could be a very nice short. As I'm typing it is being pushed down.

My analysis pointing to a bigger top in place for all equities and down for the next 5 months, call it a mini bearmarket that has begun!

 

You can clearly see it on the monthly chart, for the Top40 that is, should whack all sectors badly!

 

Protect your capital!

 

A

[Pilotpilot]

I fear the same thing is happening to MDC that happened to APN.

 

It has broken the long term Bull support (to the bottom) and is testing this resistance line at the moment @ R111-70.

 

I think the hedge funds are at work here and I suspect a strong downtrend over the next week or two.

 

Could be a very nice short. As I'm typing it is being pushed down.

Edited by Pilotpilot, 25 May 2015 - 04:46 PM.

[New_kid]

Haha I just love the Weekly update sheet Column "Estimated yearly growth after tax" = 54 Mill 

That would be great to achieve lets be positive!    

 

But thanks a lot Pilot I will be keeping a close eye on your Trades/advise.

[Pilotpilot]

Thanks Motion Picture, Jason, McEdama and Anton!   Only a pleasure!

[Motion Picture]

Yea Pilot...as always...brilliant stuff my bro!

 

And thanks again and again, for sharing!

[jason-dog]

Thanks Pilot, really appreciate this. Good work.

[McEdama]

Evening Everyone

 

Attached is the spreadsheet on the Trending Shares for Week 22.

 

The portfolio starts this week with a R251 039 balance. I am keeping the exposure on R50 000 / star, as we were running at exposures of 8 during last week. We ended on friday with 7,5:1 gearing, which is on the upper side, but there were many trades to get into.

 

This week, I could only find 2 shares that fully met the requirements for entering a new trend, (DSY and SUI).

Friday was a very flat day, and that is the reason why very few shares are showing new direction. Hopefully on Tuesday we will see some more shares entering new trends. Of the 2 new shares, DSY entered the bulltrend strongest after ending up 2% on Friday. SUI actually made a bullish entry on Thursday and tested support on Friday.

 

Of the running shares, I have decided to close JDG, for no movement after 9 trading days and the exposure will be better used on another share. I am also adding an exit price on CFR after it's disapointing results on Friday. It could still be bullish, but is better left alone for the time being.

 

PPC has run hard last week (right up to it's 200d wma) and could retrace, but it has shown no signs of ending the trend, and is still a keeper.

 

JSE was expected to move more rapidly last week, but it seems all the buyers that knew about the Share repurchase have filled their boats before the announcement. I expect the market is waiting for the next SENS announcement, to give clarity on how it will be done. Support is still @ R132-40 and should have been a better entry point.

 

Enjoy the weeks trading

 

Pilot

Thanks Pilot, awesome stuff...

[Jakkals]

Thanks Pilot. Your work is brilliant.

[Pilotpilot]

Evening Everyone

 

Attached is the spreadsheet on the Trending Shares for Week 22.

 

The portfolio starts this week with a R251 039 balance. I am keeping the exposure on R50 000 / star, as we were running at exposures of 8 during last week. We ended on friday with 7,5:1 gearing, which is on the upper side, but there were many trades to get into.

 

This week, I could only find 2 shares that fully met the requirements for entering a new trend, (DSY and SUI).

Friday was a very flat day, and that is the reason why very few shares are showing new direction. Hopefully on Tuesday we will see some more shares entering new trends. Of the 2 new shares, DSY entered the bulltrend strongest after ending up 2% on Friday. SUI actually made a bullish entry on Thursday and tested support on Friday.

 

Of the running shares, I have decided to close JDG, for no movement after 9 trading days and the exposure will be better used on another share. I am also adding an exit price on CFR after it's disapointing results on Friday. It could still be bullish, but is better left alone for the time being.

 

PPC has run hard last week (right up to it's 200d wma) and could retrace, but it has shown no signs of ending the trend, and is still a keeper.

 

JSE was expected to move more rapidly last week, but it seems all the buyers that knew about the Share repurchase have filled their boats before the announcement. I expect the market is waiting for the next SENS announcement, to give clarity on how it will be done. Support is still @ R132-40 and should have been a better entry point.

 

Enjoy the weeks trading

 

Pilot

Attached Files

•  Trending Shares (Week 22).xlsx   38.94KB   83 downloads

Edited by Pilotpilot, 24 May 2015 - 08:18 PM.

[AJS]

Attached is the update for week 21.

The Portfolio is up R37 750 (17.7%) for the week, with PPC, HAR and BAW being the top picks. HAR was closed this week, after it done R11 000 last week and R11 000 this week.

The portfolio is standing on R251 000 (up 25,5%) after 2 weeks and its looking good for the week to come.

I will post week 22 by tomorrow evening.

Enjoy the weekend.

Pilot

Well done man - nicely done!

[Pilotpilot]

Attached is the update for week 21.

 

The Portfolio is up R37 750 (17.7%) for the week, with PPC, HAR and BAW being the top picks. HAR was closed this week, after it done R11 000 last week and R11 000 this week.

 

The portfolio is standing on R251 000 (up 25,5%) after 2 weeks and its looking good for the week to come.

 

I will post week 22 by tomorrow evening.

 

Enjoy the weekend.

 

Pilot

Attached Files

•  Trending Shares (Week 21).xlsx   28.43KB   33 downloads

[OceanWalz]

Eish-kom 

Ha HA!  Eskom = Eish.com

[Motion Picture]

Sorry gents, no update today. Computer problems after load shedding last night.

 

 

 

Eish-kom 

[Pilotpilot]

Sorry gents, no update today. Computer problems after load shedding last night.

 

I quickly checked the current running trades, here at work, and they still look good. See my previous mail on JSE, as this one was a concern, after last nights lower close. It has another support @ R132-40, but with the share repurchase news, I dont think it will be a problem.

 

SBK is right on support, and hopefully no more downside from here.

 

Happy trading

 

 

Pilot

[Pilotpilot]

Hi Ocean

 

Apart from the tech break, all 10 my indicators turned bullish on Friday. Something else must be brewing. These indicators together are hardly wrong.

JSE has broken just about every resistance there is, and found support on multiple support levels, see chart attached. It is on a very steep uptrend and it entered strongly on Friday, thus the 4 star rating. I have no idea why it is pushing so hard. All I could find is that Prudencial increaced their shareholding in JSE to more than 10%, and the good results they had in March. They have nearly no Debt and they have around R1,6billion is cash. The dividend is also due in 2 1/2 weeks.

 

I use technical indicators 90% of the time to show which way a share is going. I pick it up here before the news breaks.

There might be news coming out soon?   Someone is really gobbling up JSE shares. I think R150-00 could be reached in the near future.

 

Time will tell, if I was wrong.

 

Financial review

Group earnings after tax for 2014 increased by 25% to R634 million (2013: R507 million), with operating revenue growing by 13% (2013: 12%) to R1.8 billion (2013: R1.6 billion). This is underpinned particularly by strong growth in annuity revenue from listed companies (with 24 new listings in 2014 ? the highest since 2008) and products as well as notable cost management.

 

Hey Ocean

 

I think we got our answer in SENS anouncement on JSE @ 17:37 pm. They have approved a share repurchase scheme. Something was brewing

 

9. Approve General authority to repurchase shares 99.93% 0.07% 63 122 477 72.66% 0.14%.

 

(99,93% voted for it )

 

Now we know what they are going to do with their R1,6 Billion cash.

 

 

They have 2 options to repurchase shares

 

1) Either offering a tender ammount to current shareholder for their shares, at a premium to the current price (or 30d wma). Usually 15-35%    or

2) Buy on the open market.

 

Both will push the price much higher, and that is why there share was shaowing as a very strong bull, on my indicators.

 

Read more on share buyback or share re-purchase @   http://www.investope...s/02/041702.asp

 

This boy should start moving tomorrow.

Edited by Pilotpilot, 21 May 2015 - 07:46 PM.

[Pilotpilot]

CFR has broken R110-00 resistance level. 

 

Lets see if it holds. I vote bulls!

 

I voted wrong.   10000 Bears vs. 5 Bulls

[Pilotpilot]

CFR has broken R110-00 resistance level. 

 

Lets see if it holds. I vote bulls!