866 replies to this topic

[Magnet]

Definitely, at 1c the market cap would be R200m with circa 20 billion shares issued.    3c is a bit too much for me - would imply market cap of R600m.  Noting Group 5 current market cap is R100m with similar order book sizes moving into the next year.  But with new 3 year construction budget this may be where the smart money is moving to.

 

50mil on the 3c bid side and 350m on the 4c sell side. 

 

Like I said before this will go down to 1c again or R200m market cap equivalent (which is still double group five current mcap).  Expect a 1:100 share consolidation from 1c.  and then a further drop from R1.00 to perhaps 70c at fair value until industry stabilises and company retruns to profit - maybe 3 years.

[andi222]

https://www.iol.co.z...s-pace-17240259

 

Thank you for the link. Definitely good news and I'm looking forward to see what will happen. I'm topping up my holdings at 3 cents. 

[SB45]

https://www.iol.co.z...s-pace-17240259

[SB45]

https://www.business...on-right-track/

[Magnet]

a cash shell is normally worth 1c....so cant go wrong buying at 3c and below even if it perishes

 

Definitely, at 1c the market cap would be R200m with circa 20 billion shares issued.    3c is a bit too much for me - would imply market cap of R600m.  Noting Group 5 current market cap is R100m with similar order book sizes moving into the next year.  But with new 3 year construction budget this may be where the smart money is moving to.

[Polly]

a cash shell is normally worth 1c....so cant go wrong buying at 3c and below even if it perishes

[andi222]

Close to 300 000 000. I really wonder who is buying up these big chunks. We will probably soon see a SENS

[andi222]

Over 200 000 000 shares traded. Wow that's insane.

[andi222]

Thanks Jet.

 

Saw the article.

Also read my prior posts.

All this seems like very good news to me.

The risk seems so "relatively" low, that it frustrates me not to know what I'm missing here.

I don't understand why the 500million shares are being dumped at 4c.

I presume the share price has not been impacted due to this 500million available at 4c, and supply being higher than demand.

 

AEG's convertable bonds are being suspended on the JSE today.

Don't know if we'll get an update subsequently, but hope so.

Will be interesting to see what the market cap does.

Either Market Cap will increase three fold to let's say 1Billion, or share price will have to drop to let's say 1 cent.

But if amount of shares increase from 5 billion to 20 billion the market cap or share price has to give way.

 

Eager to hear some inputs from Polly and Andi on what's going on and what short term outlook is.

 

Yes the bonds have been converted to shares on the 25 Sep. Thus these volumes that get chucked into the market. In my opinion it's the lenders that did not vote for the conversions. 

The market cap will increase because Avengs liabilities have been reduced by 1,4 billion rand. So equity has been increased by 1,4 billion. Thus its ridiculous where this share is trading. The lenders are selling their shares at a 70% loss. Because conversion price was 10 cents. These banks or investment company follow strict rules and have strict risk strategy plans. If one of their investments is out of their plans they need to sell. Its their nature of their business. 

[andi222]

could be one of any reasons:

 

1. Fund manager after rights issue now holding more than what mandate allows. Has to dispose even at a loss

2. Fund feels better opportunities elsewhere so selling out

3. Quick profit for those who bought at 1 or 2c..at least 100%

4. Fund feels this is a bust scenario

5. Stops triggered..IE when fund bought at 10c or took up rights, could have had a 50% stop level..5c... forced to sell now when below as per mandate

 

But hay no worries...There are buyers there too mopping up..

 

Good points, I would just add that not all of the bondholders have voted for the conversion and those that have not probably need to sell because of their risk strategy. 

[Matrix]

could be one of any reasons:

 

1. Fund manager after rights issue now holding more than what mandate allows. Has to dispose even at a loss

2. Fund feels better opportunities elsewhere so selling out

3. Quick profit for those who bought at 1 or 2c..at least 100%

4. Fund feels this is a bust scenario

5. Stops triggered..IE when fund bought at 10c or took up rights, could have had a 50% stop level..5c... forced to sell now when below as per mandate

 

But hay no worries...There are buyers there too mopping up..

 

Thanks Polly,

 

Feedback much appreciated.

I just don't see much risk in this.

But then again, at some point I bought 160k SNH shares. - Fortunately not involved in this anymore.

[Polly]

Thanks Polly,

 

Any insight into why 500million shares are being dropped?

Seeing as AEG has no debt and an order book of 17billion what possible short term risk is there?

could be one of any reasons:

 

1. Fund manager after rights issue now holding more than what mandate allows. Has to dispose even at a loss

2. Fund feels better opportunities elsewhere so selling out

3. Quick profit for those who bought at 1 or 2c..at least 100%

4. Fund feels this is a bust scenario

5. Stops triggered..IE when fund bought at 10c or took up rights, could have had a 50% stop level..5c... forced to sell now when below as per mandate

 

But hay no worries...There are buyers there too mopping up..

Edited by Polly, 26 September 2018 - 06:37 PM.

[Matrix]

said it before....dont look everyday at shareprice....bought and put away for 2 years.....excellent r./r at 4c and below...either bunk or 20 bagger!!!

 

Thanks Polly,

 

Any insight into why 500million shares are being dropped?

Seeing as AEG has no debt and an order book of 17billion what possible short term risk is there?

[Polly]

Thanks Jet.

 

Saw the article.

Also read my prior posts.

All this seems like very good news to me.

The risk seems so "relatively" low, that it frustrates me not to know what I'm missing here.

I don't understand why the 500million shares are being dumped at 4c.

I presume the share price has not been impacted due to this 500million available at 4c, and supply being higher than demand.

 

AEG's convertable bonds are being suspended on the JSE today.

Don't know if we'll get an update subsequently, but hope so.

Will be interesting to see what the market cap does.

Either Market Cap will increase three fold to let's say 1Billion, or share price will have to drop to let's say 1 cent.

But if amount of shares increase from 5 billion to 20 billion the market cap or share price has to give way.

 

Eager to hear some inputs from Polly and Andi on what's going on and what short term outlook is.

 

 

said it before....dont look everyday at shareprice....bought and put away for 2 years.....excellent r./r at 4c and below...either bunk or 20 bagger!!!

[Matrix]

Did you aveng people see this ? https://www.moneyweb...-be-profitable/

 

Thanks Jet.

 

Saw the article.

Also read my prior posts.

All this seems like very good news to me.

The risk seems so "relatively" low, that it frustrates me not to know what I'm missing here.

I don't understand why the 500million shares are being dumped at 4c.

I presume the share price has not been impacted due to this 500million available at 4c, and supply being higher than demand.

 

AEG's convertable bonds are being suspended on the JSE today.

Don't know if we'll get an update subsequently, but hope so.

Will be interesting to see what the market cap does.

Either Market Cap will increase three fold to let's say 1Billion, or share price will have to drop to let's say 1 cent.

But if amount of shares increase from 5 billion to 20 billion the market cap or share price has to give way.

 

Eager to hear some inputs from Polly and Andi on what's going on and what short term outlook is.

Edited by jtsuch, 26 September 2018 - 04:20 PM.

[SB45]

So many shares for sale.....these news....brought no positive impact so far.

[Ms Jet]

Did you aveng people see this ? https://www.moneyweb...-be-profitable/

[Matrix]

So, audited results are out.

Polly etc., your experienced inputs will be appreciated.

 

On face value results seem materially better than last year, when share price was 40 fold higher, and they're currently following an active plan to rescue company.

I do understand that they made a loss, but just don't see how a company without debt and an order book of R17billion has a market cap of R213million.

 

Polly etc.:

Why would shareholders be dumping 500million+ shares at these prices?

I must be missing something, but don't understand what the risk is and why share price is so low with parties willing to accept it??

 

Edit: Share price was 80 fold higher last year on release of results: R3.30.

I have subsequently learned that since then certain assets have been sold.

 

Various news articles seem positive about Aveng's future and high probability of being profitable next year.

Still seems materially undervalued at the moment taking the absence of debt into consideration, and the action plan being followed.

 

Any inputs or technical opinions on this?

Any opinions on why so much shares are being dumped at this point and these prices?

[Matrix]

So, audited results are out.

Polly etc., your experienced inputs will be appreciated.

 

On face value results seem materially better than last year, when share price was 40 fold higher, and they're currently following an active plan to rescue company.

I do understand that they made a loss, but just don't see how a company without debt and an order book of R17billion has a market cap of R213million.

 

Polly etc.:

Why would shareholders be dumping 500million+ shares at these prices?

I must be missing something, but don't understand what the risk is and why share price is so low with parties willing to accept it??

Edited by jtsuch, 25 September 2018 - 06:23 PM.

[SB45]

If they could just offload Grinaker LTA and Trident I think these two are their biggest money pits that eats into their profitable businesses I hope this is these get buyers ASAP.