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#1 Bubble

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Posted 25 March 2020 - 11:37 AM

Dammit, without C19 this thing would have been well clear and running by now.

 

Now, we are back to...will/if they survive this?


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#2 andi222

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Posted 24 March 2020 - 12:01 PM

Massive 70 mill odd trades took place in the last 10 minutes before close on Friday! 

Anyone any idea who sold and who bought ???

 

Futures and Options were closed. You would have seen similar volumes on others shares as well on Friday close


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#3 Everlearning

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 10:05 AM

Massive 70 mill odd trades took place in the last 10 minutes before close on Friday! 

Anyone any idea who sold and who bought ???

 


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#4 andi222

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Posted 21 March 2020 - 09:45 AM

The Share price was back on track until Covid 19 and the oil price hit the markets. Unfortunately investors do look for "safe investments" in these times and unfortunately Steinhoff is seen as a very risky share. Thus the steep drop in Steinhoffs share price.

What has changed on a short term scale for Steinhoff?
-pepco IPO was moved to next year. ( I personally think this is very good for Steinhoff as Steinhoff does not need the cash today, they need it by Dec 2021. Next years EBITDA will also be higher yielding a bigger price.
-Covid impact, here Steinhoff has released a message yesterday stating that some shops are closed which will have a negative impact on revenue. However people tend to forget that if there is no sale of goods there is also no cost of sale expensed. So the overall impact on the EBITDA is limited. Also governments worldwide have mentioned to cover the costs of employee expenses for the time the shops are closed. So overall I do not think that the impact is too big at the moment. Depending on how long the restrictions will last.
-Oil price crash. This will benefit Steinhoff quite significantly. Why? Lower production costs as a huge portion of Steinhoffs products are produced out of oil. Plastic, clothes etc. Lower transportation costs for Steinhoff. For me this cost saving going forward will outweigh the loss of sales from the store closures due to COvid 19.
-General, all stores are closed so Steinhoff will not loose its market share in the individual regions which are currently closed.

On a long term scale:
-oil price will reduce costs for Steinhoff
-Steinhoff seems to be on track with their plan. All units generating negative EBITDA have been sold at the right time. Just an example looking at KAP. Steinhoff sold their holding for 7 rands. At the moment KAP is sitting at close to 1 rand. Not even to mention the other units.
- Global interest rates have dropped by average 1%. This is for me one of the biggest positives for Steinhoff at the moment. We are getting closer to Dec 2021 where Steinhoff will need to refinance around 11.5 billion € (including interest). I do believe Steinhoff will repay a big portion of those 11.5 billion. The reduced interest rates will definitely help Steinhoff to refinance these loans at much lower interest rates.
RATES.
- Steinhoff is sitting on huge cash reserves currently. They had around 1.7 billion € cash. Adding all sales of units and operating cash inflows we should be sitting at around 4 billion € cash.
-AFS will be release in April. I think these will be the last deferred financial statements and I think Steinhoff will then be on track to publish its Financial Statements on time going forward.
-Litigations are ongoing. Seems like however progress is made and that we will soon see an update in this regard. I even think before release of AFS.

My conclusion is that yes the Covid 19 will negatively impact revenues on the short term, however as mentioned before this is not permanent. It will disappear. The oil price however will remain low in my opinion giving Steinhoff some good benefits. Management is still on track with their plans even though there are unforeseen circumstances. This is my own opinion and no advise to trade any shares




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#5 Machine#curious

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 05:48 PM

Have been following the Chats’ since the days of “Polly”! How much water has flowed under the bridge since then and all those who have hung in there are definitely a little wiser, (although probably like me, also a little poorer)!

I think we entering into a new season for Steinhoff and maybe the volume today is interestingly the start!

A few upcoming date as I see them :

  • Come Monday 23rd , we see SNH being included into the SDAX, (pre-emptively, could be the reason for today’s volume). We could possibly see a shortage of shares which could drive up the price.
  • I am informed by Steinhoff PR that they expect the outcome of the Court Ruling during the course of next week (claimants to be ‘consolidated’ or ‘separate’) . This could also affect sentiment and bring SNH another step closer to how it deals with these claims.
  • 30 April, Yr end results. This is going to be the first ‘new look’ financials which will record the and show the effect of the various interventions the Management have implemented.

On a negative note, I am sure that due to Corona, revenue for the current period is going to be down in line with all the other traders but I personally am bullish about the long term future of SNH. I however am just always optimistic and maybe its just the fact that I am so invested in the share that I can not but pray and hope for some form of recovery.

Would love to hear others comments on where we are!
45m shares on JSE close...
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#6 Everlearning

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 03:35 PM

Have been following the Chats’ since the days of “Polly”!  How much water has flowed under the bridge since then and all those who have hung in there are definitely a little wiser, (although probably like me, also a little poorer)!

 

I think we entering into a new season for Steinhoff and maybe the volume today is interestingly the start!

 

A few upcoming date as I see them :

 

  1. Come Monday 23rd , we see SNH being included into the SDAX, (pre-emptively, could be the reason for today’s volume). We could possibly see a shortage of shares which could drive up the price.
  2. I am informed by Steinhoff PR that they expect the outcome of the Court Ruling during the course of next week (claimants to be ‘consolidated’ or ‘separate’) . This could also  affect sentiment and bring SNH another step closer to how it deals with these claims.
  3. 30 April,  Yr end results. This is going to be the first ‘new look’ financials which will record the and show the effect of the various interventions the Management have implemented.

 

On a negative note, I am sure that due to Corona, revenue for the current period is going to be down in line with all the other traders but I personally am bullish about the long term future of SNH. I however am just always optimistic and maybe its just the fact that I am so invested in the share that I can not but pray and hope for some form of recovery.

 

Would love to hear others comments on where we are!

 


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#7 Everlearning

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Posted 20 March 2020 - 03:34 PM

Have been following the Chats’ since the days of “Polly”!  How much water has flowed under the bridge since then and all those who have hung in there are definitely a little wiser, (although probably like me, also a little poorer)!

 

I think we entering into a new season for Steinhoff and maybe the volume today is interestingly the start!

 

A few upcoming date as I see them :

 

  1. Come Monday 23rd , we see SNH being included into the SDAX, (pre-emptively, could be the reason for today’s volume). We could possibly see a shortage of shares which could drive up the price.
  2. I am informed by Steinhoff PR that they expect the outcome of the Court Ruling during the course of next week (claimants to be ‘consolidated’ or ‘separate’) . This could also  affect sentiment and bring SNH another step closer to how it deals with these claims.
  3. 30 April,  Yr end results. This is going to be the first ‘new look’ financials which will record the and show the effect of the various interventions the Management have implemented.

 

On a negative note, I am sure that due to Corona, revenue for the current period is going to be down in line with all the other traders but I personally am bullish about the long term future of SNH. I however am just always optimistic and maybe its just the fact that I am so invested in the share that I can not but pray and hope for some form of recovery.

 

Would love to hear others comments on where we are!

 


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#8 JR7800

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Posted 19 March 2020 - 11:16 AM

I think the Steinhoff board are so relieved. For once in a long time all eyes are not only at them. In this complete meltdown of world markets it seems the new norm is losing 90% of all share value and then hoping the new board turns it around. Steinhoff currently up 5% for the day. One of the best performers on the JSE currently.....

 

 


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#9 andi222

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Posted 18 March 2020 - 03:44 PM

Massive win for steinhoff to delay the ipo. Think there will be pressure but happy to hold... Consensus is sell...

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Yes agreed, I hope they will aim for next year Feb to IPO or even Nov 2021. The longer they wait the higher the EBITDA which means a higher price can be obtained.


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#10 Investment novice

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Posted 17 March 2020 - 01:38 PM

Massive win for steinhoff to delay the ipo. Think there will be pressure but happy to hold... Consensus is sell...

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#11 andi222

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Posted 17 March 2020 - 01:35 PM

If 82 breaks we have some big problems. This corona is nothing good for Steinhoff

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#12 Investment novice

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 09:14 PM

Some nice recovery.... Thought it was going to be a massacre... In the twenties..

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#13 Investment novice

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 06:29 PM

All things equal and in a stable macro environment....

Should this not result in a crazy spike in share price

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#14 andi222

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 06:23 PM

That's an absolutely rediculous number.... Please use it to buy me out and delist steinhof.....

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Hi IN, yeah its crazy. I did a rough calc of where the cash is standing:

 

Cash Balance HJ 2019 1.733 Billion €

Plus Blue Group +- 0.25 Billion

Plus Unitrans 0.5 Billion

Plus sherwood bedding 0.04 Billion

Various Properties 0.8 Billion

Iberia Conforama 0.2 Billion

Cash from operations 1 year 0.9 Billion

 

Gives you a total of around 4.4 Billion as at 31.3.2020. 

 

Not sure if I have missed something. But yeah I think Steinhoff is sitting on heaps of cash.


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#15 Investment novice

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 05:09 PM

Well I think no one can say this with certainty. However I do believe that we are around 3 Billion € or even more. In April we will know more when we see the AFS for 2019. Will also be very interesting to see HJ 2020 in June.


That's an absolutely rediculous number.... Please use it to buy me out and delist steinhof.....

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#16 Lionelza1

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 04:50 PM

My opinion it's not looking bad.... From 80c up to R2 now seems to be finding base at R1.40.....so not looking bad in that it did not fall under the R1 again....


Oh dear knocking on that R1 again

This Corona virus will bankrupt more ppl than it kills..... Global economy ism!
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#17 andi222

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 01:07 PM

Nice input on long lead times... Expect with hoarding and bulk buying this is going to drive revenue... Clear shelves....

Online selling will pickup.....

Good news


Andi any idea how much cash at snh... Whats the pile looking like.... And.. Any news on bonds and reasons

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Well I think no one can say this with certainty. However I do believe that we are around 3 Billion € or even more. In April we will know more when we see the AFS for 2019. Will also be very interesting to see HJ 2020 in June. 


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#18 andi222

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 01:03 PM

IPO/Sale of Pepco is being moved from Q1 to later of Q2 this year. This is good news as it would be stupid to IPO Pepco right now lol. There is blood on the streets.

 

I really do hope that Corona impact is overrated. 

 

One good thing tho is that oil prices being so low the production cost of a lot of products sold at Pepkor and Pepco should decline.

 

 


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#19 Investment novice

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Posted 11 March 2020 - 12:26 PM

Nice input on long lead times... Expect with hoarding and bulk buying this is going to drive revenue... Clear shelves....

Online selling will pickup.....

Good news


Andi any idea how much cash at snh... Whats the pile looking like.... And.. Any news on bonds and reasons

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#20 Lionelza1

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Posted 11 March 2020 - 08:15 AM

If we don’t break 139 we stay in range.
Very interesting that Snh hasn’t dropped as much as everyone else. The US suspended trade for 15 minutes on Monday as the S&P 500 fell by 7% pre-trade.


My opinion it's not looking bad.... From 80c up to R2 now seems to be finding base at R1.40.....so not looking bad in that it did not fall under the R1 again....
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