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#3841 Investment novice

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Posted 22 May 2018 - 09:14 AM

JSE overdue for being non-involved. Silence is just more fraud. If it is so bad that nothing can be said then it must be suspended. Full stop.

Jse have been vocal. Have not been silent. Thy probably will act if frankfurt acts or pending failure for h1 in aug and full results december.
The jse like frankfurt are working with snh on this and have been bound to non disclosures. They too would be liable for not acting in the correct manner...surely....these are institutions under tremendous pressure and risk themselves.

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#3842 Snippit

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Posted 22 May 2018 - 08:10 AM

Then ofcourse there is the gross fraud...need to understand how much that is. ....
 

 

JSE overdue for being non-involved. Silence is just more fraud. If it is so bad that nothing can be said then it must be suspended. Full stop.


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#3843 Investment novice

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Posted 22 May 2018 - 06:14 AM

Will try to write daily....until various issues discussed from sens.
Share price up and down..technicals may point downward but can be either way short term as new buyers entering market and sellers exiting...traders taking profit.

Sens disclosure of relationship with debt holder was new. Covenants were breached and all debt is due end of august. This is the single piece of information which should have created mass exodus and share price tracking to 10c last friday..surprising though that it did not.......

Snh have been hard at work to counter this. This is the fire that was referenced previously.

Reflecting on all their actions historically knowing the above....i would be keen to understand why they have not filed for bankruptcy protection???

A plausible argument could be that talks with debt holders sinc december are progressing and snh are close to an agreement that could ensure debt settlement in 3 years. The h1 revenue figures were key to demonstrate profitability ability. Suggesting snh may generate 1 biilion euro per year operating ebitda....thats 3 billion towards debt repaymemt. Conservative as we not factoring growth and turnaround success of potentially another 500m euros...other value???
There is last years 1 billion euro profit and the sale of star shares...no one knows where that 3.5 billion euros is.....is there some recoverability.....star worth 4.5 billion euros...with growth 3 years perhaps 5billion.. hopefully a mbo and mattress firm value at 1.5 billion euros.
Property at 1.1 billion without lease income. There is still pepko and poundland...conforama asia assets....
The revenue discloure was critical. The fact that snh is in a net loss does not meam it is loss making...accounting requiements.

Okay wht about legal cases. Costs of litigation and settlement of other parties. Interestingly we discussed this before...previous posts....well lets say veb negotiates a settlement as snh stregnthens their case against jooste and co. 1 billion euros or less could be agreed as veb is non profit and they need to act in best interest of shareholders. Remaining cases may similarly be settled. Snh does not hold total liability and xompany guilt still has to be proven and that percentage of accountability shared with banks auditors and insurers.....

Taking above into consideration. It s very probable that snh is looking for a clean exit. This can occur following the full and detaild forensic process and final settlemet of legal cases. The exit will ensure value is recovered to some extent. Debt holders are paid from the sale of the company and that shareholders will also have some for of retained value.

The value of the share in 3 years...well that would be dependent on legal settlement and success of a growth and turnaround strategy. Perhaps this would be what the analysts are thinking through....in the evantuality a lenders deal is struck...
Tomorrow i want to unpqck and better understnd the term accounting irregularity and understand how snh generated profit from internal company debt and reduced tax. Is this acceptable practice. Wiese remarked that this was evaluated and cleared before referring to viceroys accusations. Has this now been revised. Has revenue from leases an rentals been revised and has depreciation also been adjusted....there is significant accounting items that relates to revenue calculations and we need to undetstand how much of that is cobsidered fraud versus accounting malpractice. Can any ca pls comment....

Then ofcourse there is the gross fraud...need to understand how much that is. ....

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#3844 Investment novice

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Posted 22 May 2018 - 06:12 AM

Will try to write daily....until various issues discussed from sens.
Share price up and down..technicals may point downward but can be either way short term as new buyers entering market and sellers exiting...traders taking profit.

Sens disclosure of relationship with debt holder was new. Covenants were breached and all debt is due end of august. This is the single piece of information which should have created mass exodus and share price tracking to 10c last friday..surprising though that it did not.......

Snh have been hard at work to counter this. This is the fire that was referenced previously.

Reflecting on all their actions historically knowing the above....i would be keen to understand why they have not filed for bankruptcy protection???

A plausible argument could be that talks with debt holders sinc december are progressing and snh are close to an agreement that could ensure debt settlement in 3 years. The h1 revenue figures were key to demonstrate profitability ability. Suggesting snh may generate 1 biilion euro per year operating ebitda....thats 3 billion towards debt repaymemt. Conservative as we not factoring growth and turnaround success of potentially another 500m euros...other value???
There is last years 1 billion euro profit and the sale of star shares...no one knows where that 3.5 billion euros is.....is there some recoverability.....star worth 4.5 billion euros...with growth 3 years perhaps 5billion.. hopefully a mbo and mattress firm value at 1.5 billion euros.
Property at 1.1 billion without lease income. There is still pepko and poundland...conforama asia assets....
The revenue discloure was critical. The fact that snh is in a net loss does not meam it is loss making...accounting requiements.

Okay wht about legal cases. Costs of litigation and settlement of other parties. Interestingly we discussed this before...previous posts....well lets say veb negotiates a settlement as snh stregnthens their case against jooste and co. 1 billion euros or less could be agreed as veb is non profit and they need to act in best interest of shareholders. Remaining cases may similarly be settled. Snh does not hold total liability and xompany guilt still has to be proven and that percentage of accountability shared with banks auditors and insurers.....

Taking above into consideration. It s very probable that snh is looking for a clean exit. This can occur following the full and detaild forensic process and final settlemet of legal cases. The exit will ensure value is recovered to some extent. Debt holders are paid from the sale of the company and that shareholders will also have some for of retained value.

The value of the share in 3 years...well that would be dependent on legal settlement and success of a growth and turnaround strategy. Perhaps this would be what the analysts are thinking through....in the evantuality a lenders deal is struck...
Tomorrow i want to unpqck and better understnd the term accounting irregularity and understand how snh generated profit from internal company debt and reduced tax. Is this acceptable practice. Wiese remarked that this was evaluated and cleared before referring to viceroys accusations. Has this now been revised. Has revenue from leases an rentals been revised and has depreciation also been adjusted....there is significant accounting items that relates to revenue calculations and we need to undetstand how much of that is cobsidered fraud versus accounting malpractice. Can any ca pls comment....

Then ofcourse there is the gross fraud...need to understand how much that is. ....

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#3845 Investment novice

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Posted 21 May 2018 - 11:52 AM

Holiday in Germany today

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#3846 Snippit

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Posted 21 May 2018 - 11:35 AM

Upper boundary just fine tuned at 197 with daytrading -ve divergence on a high RSI. Waiting for news remains not good enough. 


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#3847 Investment novice

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 12:05 PM

I have not digested all the information and lookd at the scenarios and probabilities....but what has stood out for RAM...is that post presentation....more analysts and investment houses seem to be buying...(cant tell if selling Polly).....som analysts quoted as saying...following presentation SNH is definately undervalued...looking at revenue mrgins and the quantum of malrepresentation being at about 385m. There is a sense that revenue were padded andnot completely falsified. There is also hope that snh is looking at a 3 year strategy to maximise value and have full debt settlement....this is a fantastic approach as the creditors need to consider a dawn out scramble for funds and a legal battle...which would probably take 3 years in which kore value gets eroded..considering the loans were bought at 30 to 50 percent disxount may mak complete sense to hold out. And lastly legal challange is a long battle...snh deflecting as much on to markus and those responsible...this could work to reduce the impact on snh. A likely settlement with veb may also be reahed after 3 years.....
If all coackroaches are out...impairments accounted for....revenue realised...turnarounds implemented...lega claims quantified...debt quanitified and restructured.....and regulatory support for continued trading....we are in a somwhat less unpredictable future.....perhaps we may see some confidence and value returned with the share at least rallying to r12 ....and in time..2020 being at r30...my guess is that snh will either diposeof assets following turnaround with mbo....or sellout to a big player......eitherway some reprieve....hence analysts may be seeimg some share opportunity....lots of information still to digest....and to think about a liquadation scenario...

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#3848 Snippit

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 05:47 PM

The study reaches the start of the conclusion...

 

https://jsecharts.bl...ldings-snh.html

 

snh-d-180518png.png

 


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  4. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give control and say goodbye. Learning links: http://swrict.blogsp...ader-links.html

 

 


#3849 Investment novice

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 04:31 PM

Lots and lots to dissect...high level ...lota of work beind the scenes done.
Trading update very promising....this company is working hard at every level...profitable yes....however due to impairments showing a tax loss....expected.....
I was very concerned when i initially saw the trading loss on news headlines...tinking this is the nail in th coffin..but going through presentation they cash flow positive and oprationally sound...its the secondary survival costs and impairments from pevious issues that have eaten up the profits....

Shooh...almost a heart attack...

Will review in detail....and look forward to your comments...

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#3850 Machine#curious

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 03:53 PM

presentation attached...

Attached Files


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#3851 Shi

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 03:50 PM

Can you give us guys that do not have access to the presentation a bit more info? Your comment just wets the appetite.

 

The presentation is on the website (see SENS they just put out). Mattress Firm is being listed as a turnaround opportunity and needs funding. Lots of details in there.

 

I'm interested to hear what a certain someone has to say ;-)


Edited by Shi, 18 May 2018 - 03:51 PM.

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#3852 Ram85

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 03:44 PM

Lots of chew on in the presentation esp. Mattress Firm.

 

Can you give us guys that do not have access to the presentation a bit more info? Your comment just wets the appetite.


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#3853 Shi

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 03:40 PM

Lots of chew on in the presentation esp. Mattress Firm.


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“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#3854 Dusty Mountain

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 02:15 PM

Anybody know which media outlet will release news first on the lenders meeting today?


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#3855 Polly

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 01:49 PM

an interesting trend this morning...

 

I noticed lots of buying / selling almost 14 million of share in the first 2 hrs and thought ahh...just excitement, speculation...

but what got my attention is that almost 10 million from that is off the Frankfurt bourse and only 4 million SA. this is quite different to the trades in the past. seldom such a disparity??? not sure why more buying and selling relative to SA....could just be incidental ...and a red herring....

not sure if anyone noticed---word of caution this may be nothing if not a misdirection

 

changed above for you. 


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#3856 Investment novice

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:04 PM

an interesting trend this morning...

 

I noticed lots of buying almost 14 million of share in the first 2 hrs and thought ahh...just excitement, speculation...

but what got my attention is that almost 10 million from that is off the Frankfurt bourse and only 4 million SA. this is quite different to the trades in the past. seldom such a disparity??? not sure why more buying and selling relative to SA....could just be incidental ...and a red herring....

not sure if anyone noticed---word of caution this may be nothing if not a misdirection


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#3857 Bullhunter

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:24 AM

seeing the share tank must be the most painful experience for shareholders.

but then  there is the opportunity to get in cheap or reduce your average cost per share. and if there is a company recovery you get a cheap share and a rand hedge all for R1.60???

 

 

A classic case of 'catching a falling knife' and 'there is always more than one cockroach'!


Edited by Bullhunter, 18 May 2018 - 10:25 AM.

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#3858 Investment novice

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:22 AM

How saving
Steinhoff became
Heather Sonn's 14-
hour-a-day mission

 

Fin24
3 hours ago
 
will this be SA's new darling- finally a balanced article even though minimal in information- portrays the good the bad and the ugly.
 
perhaps we will get some more balanced journalism coming through next week if there is some resemblance of a recovery.
 
if this company turns around and makes money- I hope you pray for me...and if you lose more----please don't curse me...cause I will be right next to you in pain

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#3859 Investment novice

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 07:28 AM

Besides the shorters???

seeing the share tank must be the most painful experience for shareholders.

but then  there is the opportunity to get in cheap or reduce your average cost per share. and if there is a company recovery you get a cheap share and a rand hedge all for R1.60???

 

regarding a question yesterday on information from SNH following the lenders meeting- we should not expect a sens- if we get one fantastic- if not - there are multiple meetings around this ahead of finalisation. the lenders in any event would want surety and information disclosures for protection- since we expect that this is at least anther 7 months before wrapping up- can expect these conversations to go for that period of time before finalisation- however there may be certain disclosures made under the nda for the purposes of the meeting ?

snh will also be very wary about releasing information or presentations prematurely as this is usually negative on the fragile share which is very close to zero euro cents already. perhaps if there is a staggered update informing of the successful agreements  concluded- this would steadily drive confidence and share recovery......


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#3860 Dusty Mountain

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 02:20 PM

An earlier trade suspension may have protected the shareholders until investigations give greater clarity and financials were audited, who stands to gain from allowing the share to tank???

Besides the shorters???


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