7 votes
The Oracle
Posted 18 February 2021 - 01:48 PM
So I'm trying to understand this,
After nearly three days of a straight downward line, there has been a turn and we are now heading up (Atleast while I'm typing this)
I want to understand what changed...or is it just a number of factors working together?
USA is now awake!!!
Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 01:48 PM
We could have bottomed this morning but again this is SNH!!!
For now yes, check out the current pump again on LS. This is the scenario I thought I was topping up in yesterday, only to have my behind handed to me this morning. The big players must be cashing in big time.
The Oracle
Posted 18 February 2021 - 01:47 PM
Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 01:45 PM
So I'm trying to understand this,
After nearly three days of a straight downward line, there has been a turn and we are now heading up (Atleast while I'm typing this)
I want to understand what changed...or is it just a number of factors working together?
The Oracle
Posted 18 February 2021 - 01:09 PM
There was an impairment raised for the settlement previously.
Could be no news or some news...
This is the dump after the pump...lionelz where are you....daytrader....
Perhaps try find the floor and buy again...
Do we have a calendar of potential info..results and or other info...listing etc...
We could have bottomed this morning but again this is SNH!!!
The Oracle
Posted 18 February 2021 - 12:16 PM
Master
Posted 18 February 2021 - 11:23 AM
was the provisions for the GS not accounted for in the last set of results? Therefore this set would look much betterI'm expecting stellar operational results, but as usual some negative surprises to continue to look poor & depress the SP. They'll find another impairment or something. All to get the GS through the gates in June, priority #1. Essentially a continuation of the theory Andi had on Steinhoff looking poor to make the case for a GS stronger. And that's why I also got kinda taken aback that we have to wait so much longer for that GS.
Happy to be wrong of course.
Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 11:11 AM
I'm expecting stellar operational results, but as usual some negative surprises to continue to look poor & depress the SP. They'll find another impairment or something. All to get the GS through the gates in June, priority #1. Essentially a continuation of the theory Andi had on Steinhoff looking poor to make the case for a GS stronger. And that's why I also got kinda taken aback that we have to wait so much longer for that GS.
Happy to be wrong of course.
Why are we expecting poor results? There was already good trading updates. All business profitable. Now PEPCO in Italy and Spain, Poundland expanding and now selling frozen foods, Mattress Firm well on the road to recovery. As Andi said we close to closing Step 2 and we must not forget Step 3 has been ongoing and soon will also be complete. For me the last step is the listing of Aussie business and PEPCO.
The Oracle
Posted 18 February 2021 - 10:46 AM
Do you expect anything positive the 26th?
With the current timelines (that to be fair I think few knew would be so dragged out) I feel the whole bad-news-we're-poor show has to continue for even longer. Meaning another poor FS, and another dump. I'm struggling to find any positive triggers until after the GS - and now that turns out to be light years away. Would imagine that an IPO is off the table until after summer too.
Why are we expecting poor results? There was already good trading updates. All business profitable. Now PEPCO in Italy and Spain, Poundland expanding and now selling frozen foods, Mattress Firm well on the road to recovery. As Andi said we close to closing Step 2 and we must not forget Step 3 has been ongoing and soon will also be complete. For me the last step is the listing of Aussie business and PEPCO.
Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 10:25 AM
Do you expect anything positive the 26th?
With the current timelines (that to be fair I think few knew would be so dragged out) I feel the whole bad-news-we're-poor show has to continue for even longer. Meaning another poor FS, and another dump. I'm struggling to find any positive triggers until after the GS - and now that turns out to be light years away. Would imagine that an IPO is off the table until after summer too.
In trading there are days best is do nothing and sit on your hands or go fishing. Well today and tomorrow is those days. Nothing changed since the R2.90 to today we all knew the requirements to get the claims sorted. Sit back and watch. This morning at 08:16 someone dumped 1 mil shares in Tradegate which pushed the price down. I am going fishing until the 26th Feb when fins are announced.
Sage
Posted 18 February 2021 - 10:11 AM
The Oracle
Posted 18 February 2021 - 10:04 AM
How could we all get it so wrong? Or does Mr market dictate the price again...and only a few will make money when results come out?.....keep us in the red
In trading there are days best is do nothing and sit on your hands or go fishing. Well today and tomorrow is those days. Nothing changed since the R2.90 to today we all knew the requirements to get the claims sorted. Sit back and watch. This morning at 08:16 someone dumped 1 mil shares in Tradegate which pushed the price down. I am going fishing until the 26th Feb when fins are announced.
Little Master
Posted 18 February 2021 - 09:58 AM
If it does I will probably buy some more.
Master
Posted 18 February 2021 - 09:48 AM
Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 09:48 AM
I am still confused by how abruptly someone slammed on the brakes when it reached R2.92 the other day. I know I am crying over spilled milk, but it only reached around 82% on the RSI before making a u-turn of note (recent past good news reached 88%). What is more disturbing is the rate at which it is falling now, almost a vertical line down to 50%, which makes me think it is on a one way ticket to 30% or oversold.
Just my observations, but I hope that I am way off.
Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 09:43 AM
If it does I will probably buy some more.
Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 09:26 AM
Let's see how low she goes...
By the looks of it, we could end up in the R1.20 region again in the next few days (pre announcement levels) if this steam train continues.
Little Master
Posted 18 February 2021 - 09:14 AM
Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 09:08 AM
I continue to let this share trample all over me. I was honestly not expecting a further drop today, trend has been broken and it seems there is only one way for now.
Shattered.
Advanced Member
Posted 18 February 2021 - 08:46 AM
Guys please don't have a permanent look on the share price. We should rather focus on the fundamentals and what has been achieved up to date. Too many day traders and private investors are holding this stock currently.
So to summarize in quick what has been achieved:
- All operating units are growing even with store closures during COVID.
- All loss generating operating units have been disposed of.
- The Steinhoff preference shares are tradeable again and there was a sharp increase in the first few days.
- A Global settlement was announced to get rid of all claims which where totaling close to 10 Billion Euros. The current Global settlement value lies at under 1 billion Euro
- Steinhoff has received creditors support to extend all debt maturity dates to mid June 2023.
- Steinhoff has won critical court cases- Biggest win was against Conservatorium recently.
- Steinhoff has received the baking of the reserve bank.
- So all steps to start the implementation have been fulfilled and the two processed in Netherlands and in SA have started.
So what still needs to happen now?
- Steinhoff needs to get the approval from claimants. Please remember they do not need 100% support. In the Netherlands they only need 50% and in SA they need 75% of the claimants value.
- Now think about it again, who are the biggest claimants? Wiese, Conservatorium, VEB and other smaller ones. ALL of these have agreed already to accept the terms. others will follow in my opinion. But even if they don't follow I still think Steinhoff has more then 75% of the support.
- So we will all have to wait for the 30 June.
- Both schemes need to be approved for the Global settlement to become effective.
But this will bring us to the end of Step 2
What will happen after Step 2:
- Bigger serious long term investors will be able to make proper valuations of the operating units of Steinhoff.
- We will be able to get credit ratings again from S&P etc.
- Step 2 will open the doors for a clean audit opinion going forward. Which means funds etc. are allowed to invest in Steinhoff.
- Eventually we will see an IPO of Pepco. I however see a seriously good valuation here and this will lead to us regaining some equity due to fair value adjustments.
Where do I personally see Steinhoff in a few years:
- Steinhoff will be an investment holding company holding the following:
- 70% Pepco Group, 70% Pepkor, 50% MF.
- They will have refinanced their remaining debt at reasonable rates.
- We will start to see dividends
Management is also currently working on Step 3 on the side.
So this again is just my personal opinion, but I see huge progress here.
Again this is no recommendation to trade in this share.
Please remind us what is step 3 again?
