15225 replies to this topic

[DeltaHedge]

Nice guys, well done for holding out up to this point, obviously we not out the woods yet and a dump could follow but 3 days of big moves is something to smile about, Only the brave would fade this move.


 

[KP7]

Really interesting what you have picked KP7 from DRD. If this applies to Steinhoff we might see those 24 EUR cents very soon.

Yes Andi, the ending diagonal or wedge is an extremely powerful technical pattern most often found at the end of big moves. It shows exhaustion.

 

I could go on and on talking about the beautiful symmetry within this pattern from R9 (Jan 2018), however, what I like is that it has a timing component. In other words, from start to end took 34 months (Jan 2018 to Oct 2020), these usually retrace to the origin in one third or half that time. Hence, I said by April 2022, SNH should be at R9.

I can also make the case for R24 in years to come. This is the 23.6% fib retracement level from the all time high. So in fib terms, it’s a minimum retracement.

 

 I have attached a screenshot of PPC which I took in November, same pattern at the end of an exhaustive move. The break was powerful and I expect it to reach 189 by February 2021. Trading at 124 yesterday.

 

If anyone noticed, SNH collapsed on 4 December 2017 and started to rally on 02 December 2020. I don’t see time as a coincidence in the markets.

Attached Files

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[Africa1962]

Ho dear or dear we looking t R1.26 open tomorrow!!!!

 

First time in many a year that a 1 yr consensus has moved off of "sell"

 

https://www.sharenet...e.php?scode=SNH

[DayTraderDad]

I believe this time there will be no dump!!! The way I see this people are mopping up the shares!!!

Ho dear or dear we looking t R1.26 open tomorrow!!!!

[DayTraderDad]

Watch the d3 dump. May get more shares then

I believe this time there will be no dump!!! The way I see this people are mopping up the shares!!!

Edited by DayTraderDad, 08 December 2020 - 09:01 PM.

[Investment novice]

Watch the d3 dump. May get more shares then

[andi222]

My targets remain the same when I bought in June. R3.80 first.

Based on time, my ideal target of R9 should be reached by April 2022.

 

Really interesting what you have picked KP7 from DRD. If this applies to Steinhoff we might see those 24 EUR cents very soon.

[Investment novice]

Yes wise words. Up and down pump and dump,...or buy and look away

[DayTraderDad]

is there anyone prepared to hazard a "guess" what is pushing the price at the moment....and if it can be sustained...or is it the traditional "pump and dump"

For me its Brexit there is now a very good chance of a deal. The fact that creditors will support the meeting on the 15th is already old news now just a formality to start implementation.

[Lionelza1]

I'm guessing Mr market looking for a Xmas bonus.

Brexit, deal with creditors, litigation, nothing has changed?

Either way... It has been a consistent UP which is good. Careful of that dump

[Zanme]

Lets call it....cummon r2

All of this proves that Steinhoff had real value and the real destroyer of value was management. The assets are the same as they were. Steinhoff would have been much higher if management was frugal and had our interest. At least Euro 3 billion less debt.

[Investment novice]

Lets call it....cummon r2

[andi222]

Yeah so the following events have an impact on the share price:

 

- Brexit deal

- Pepco group to release their numbers today. There is a live webcast today at 2. Apparently pound land has increased their turnover to close to 2 billion €.

- 12 and 15 December we will know if we have approval for extension of debt facilities. Which will also determine if the GS will be approved.

- Given this sharp increase so far we might even be included in the S DAX next year again. So Funds will monitor this and start buying as soon as they see Steinhoff meets the requirements.

 

So I think we might see a nice run up the following weeks, hopefully it will be sustainable this time. Let's hope for good news along the way.

[Matt744]

I think this has to do with the Brexit situation. Assuming it would come down slightly again but in general I think it’s on the path upward with the creditors meeting to be held on 15 December 2020 if I’m not mistaken.

[Africa1962]

I've seen estimates of fair values of R6 per share that I think are understated. That would mean that the entity destroyed 90% of its value from pre-crash highs of R60+ a share which I find hard to believe as they have turned a few loss making entities around and removed a few bad apples. Granted the financials were overstated and the settlement will hurt badly but we definitely have a more solid core business now in Pepkor, Pepco and MF.

 

Once the dust settles I think we will only see a fair market value in a year or two afterwards as sentiment towards the share will still be an issue for some time.

is there anyone prepared to hazard a "guess" what is pushing the price at the moment....and if it can be sustained...or is it the traditional "pump and dump"

[Sleepwa123]

I've seen estimates of fair values of R6 per share that I think are understated. That would mean that the entity destroyed 90% of its value from pre-crash highs of R60+ a share which I find hard to believe as they have turned a few loss making entities around and removed a few bad apples. Granted the financials were overstated and the settlement will hurt badly but we definitely have a more solid core business now in Pepkor, Pepco and MF.

 

Once the dust settles I think we will only see a fair market value in a year or two afterwards as sentiment towards the share will still be an issue for some time.

[Sleepwa123]

There's also a massive difference in EBITDA if the global peace deal goes through and they are able to refinance debt at market related rates. 

That move makes Steinhoff a viable entity overnight. Fingers crossed!

[andi222]

Hi DeltaHedge,

 

if you look at the NAV of Steinhoff we are big in the minus. I think their Equity is like negative 4 billion €.

 

However as I have mentioned before it is managements plan to act poor to get rid of these claims. Refer to previous posts on what management has done to "act poor". 

Also two new points which came to my attention which are actually genius from management are the IPO's. The values they have announced are not even close to what the operating units are worth currently. That's why surprise surprise they have been deferred to after the settlement. Explained in simple terms: The claimants have argued in my opinion that all operating units are worth way more then actually shown in the books. 

So what did management do, Pepkor SA is currently trading way under its value, however the current market is valuing it at around 2.5 Billion € in the open market. Now Steinhoff had to show that Pepco Group is also not worth much more, so now they have gotten so called valuation of around 4 billion. Which the claimants cant denie as it is black on white. Same with Greenlit. Steinhoff did not make use of these IPO. It was just to determine a "current fair value in my opinion" to strengthen the point that there is no value left in Steinhoff. 

 

However in my opinion these operating units currently still under Steinhoff are robust and have high growth rates in future. Their actual valuation is way higher given their intense high EBITDA. I think just for 2020 financial year we will have an EBITDA of above 1.2 Billion €.

 

So to get to a reasonable value one should look at the operating units performance. 

Its really tough to get to a current value as there are so man hurdles to be cleared before I can make a reasonable assessment. But in my opinion if the dust is settled there will be massive value left in the company in my opinion. Just keep calm and give management a bit more time. 

[DayTraderDad]

Good run Brexit deal coming Boris came to his senses

[DeltaHedge]

@Andi, what’s your fair value per share after claims are sorted ?