15225 replies to this topic

[Trader001]

I joined this forum to share thoughts and ideas, however, it is certainly losing value by the day (KP7)!!

 

Hi Sir, the above statement is correct when we consider some of the posts by Zanme and the frequency of the whinging posts about DuPr and Steinhoff. It use to be one or two but now it is turning into a bombardment.

The site should not be open to entertain personal attacks by one on the other.

If you don't like what you are reading then make a positive contribution  or make a proper counter argument or exit the forum.

 

I have always enjoyed informative posts by Andi222, DayTraderDad and Investment Novice.

That is the only reason why I still follow this chat.  
 

[Zanme]

Sure, send me your bank details ill gladly reimburse you.

Really that's kind of you

[Leadingedge]

if you think this share crazy...explain MTN that publishes one positive result after another and still cant grow....I think America, Uk and Covid are having greater impact on markets than one expects or understands

 

I agree with you, COVID has made the world go completely wonky. I used to be able to make some kind of sense of the rise and fall in share prices, but not anymore. Like I said on another thread, we see these massive spikes in the share price of some companies lately (following news of some kind), only to have it retrace completely a day or two later, sometimes even falling lower. My question is if the news is good enough to drive to price up, then why does it not sustain a higher level?

[DeltaHedge]

BradH there is no complusion to stay. Delta take your own advice i must realise losses. I will galdly sell if you compensate me for the losses.

 

Sure, send me your bank details ill gladly reimburse you. 

[Africa1962]

There seems to be a massive disconnect between what is (still) discussed here, and what the market is doing.

 

All the information in below posts is publicly available - how come these shares are not picked up en masse? At the very least, how come we haven't seen the gradual increase after news about seeing formal approval for the settlement (which was echoed by just about all bulls on this forum)? It is incredibly frustrating to see the price slide back to pre-news levels, and I am just grappling to understand why (even when taking into account the long-standing & known risks).

 

It makes me think that I and a lot of people here suffer from a decent dose of confirmation bias as holders. I understand the business looks more stable than a year ago, but: Who saw the JSE fine & stock dump coming? What about yet again a financial reporting delay & stock dump? Does anyone have a take on what could be the next derailing piece of news that comes out? Genuinely asking.

 

I'm a continued holder as I also agree that it's good to have some risky assets in my portfolio - but jeez this is not how a normal stock behaves haha (and I do look partially at management for that). Anyway, onto another day of dumping.

 

 

if you think this share crazy...explain MTN that publishes one positive result after another and still cant grow....I think America, Uk and Covid are having greater impact on markets than one expects or understands

[Bushmanbob]

Zanme, I hear you and respect you viewpoint. But please sir, there is no need to repeat yourself over and over. At the end of the day there are always going to be the guys who believe in a turnaround, and those who don't. Nothing you say will change that. You have made your point regarding your dislike of LDP literally over 20 times throughout the thread, and it is truly becoming tiresome, to the point I have contemplated leaving the forum.   

 

100% Agree BradH

 

Zanme, recently I have not seen anyone "glorifying" LDP and his team.  There are those who are cautious yet willing to allow LDP to execute the plan. There are others who aren't and you have made it frustratingly clear which camp you lie in.  We understand your views on his remuneration. We also understand from your posts yesterday that he is not responsible for any progress whether it be legally, operationally or fiscally which means there is nothing he can do to win your approval.  We get it. You are not a fan. 

 

I just don't understand your belligerence when Andi quotes Warren Buffet (nobody claimed Warren Buffett was going to be buying SNH) or when DeltaHedge suggests selling your holding. You have stated you are watching this share go to zero - it therefore stands to reason that if your prophecy plays out, you will have zero - Now I am not a terribly bright fellow but wouldn't zero be a lot worse than the losses you have already suffered?

 

Most of the crowd you have labelled "pom poms" are nervous and we understand the risk - we are probably just as concerned as you but we are seeing things a little differently and for the time being, we are cautiously supportive (not the same thing as glorifying which implies we are absolutely thrilled with the situation). It seems you want us all to raise a revolt against management and have LDP thrown out which I feel is unlikely and would probably, at this stage, destroy more value than it would create.  

[Zanme]

Delta and gang reserve your insults for your mates. I don't know you and don't want to. You guys did the same thing with Polly accept that you guys were so wrong its not funny.

[Zanme]

And there are enough shareholders on this forum to try and make positive change. Instead of cheering everytime a new SENS announcement comes out. Why should we lose more than we have and accept it and make excuses for the guys that are doing it.

[Zanme]

By the way. I am trying to change things. I voted at the AGM i have engaged with them on a personal basis. What have you done. There is no need to be nasty about things. Because you guys accept things without questioning and challenging that's not my fault.

[Zanme]

BradH there is no complusion to stay. Delta take your own advice i must realise losses. I will galdly sell if you compensate me for the losses.

[KP7]

I joined this forum to share thoughts and ideas, however, it is certainly losing value by the day.
 

As a Trader/Investor, we either:

 

1) Long the market. We enter at a price that we believe to be fair value with the expectation that it reaches a predetermined price target.

 

2) Short the market. We enter at a price that we believe to be fair value with the expectation that it reaches a predetermined price target.

 

3) Flat. We sit on our hands and have no position.

 

 

In all my years of trading, I’ve never seen Traders/Investors go long when their analysis tells them that a stock is going to zero.

 

If some think 3 years is a long time to wait, have a look at this DRD GOLD chart.

I have overlaid Spot Gold (XAUUSD) in red.
 

Notice the following:

DRD took 10 years to eventually bottom (2005 - 2015) 

DRD was sideways to lower from 2005 - 2015 while XAUUSD was trending higher from 2005 - 2011. This inverse correlation is just “The Market does what it wants”.

2015 Bottom in DRD and XAUUSD. Back to a positive correlation since.

DRD took 4 months to form a strong rally in 2015. I always compare long term tops and bottoms to cruise ships turning. It takes time.

 

Bottom Line: Patience is rewarded.
 

 D91C1996-0D53-4909-8DF1-EEDD636A56F6.jpeg   136.64KB   4 downloads

 

 

[DeltaHedge]

Delta Hedge who are you to tell me what to do. Time to change management. You can continue making Louis rich if thats what you like I won't.

 

You need to sell and move on

[BradH]

The only thing that they had to do was create value for stakeholders which they haven't so that is the bottom line they have failed in their duty.

 

Zanme, I hear you and respect you viewpoint. But please sir, there is no need to repeat yourself over and over. At the end of the day there are always going to be the guys who believe in a turnaround, and those who don't. Nothing you say will change that. You have made your point regarding your dislike of LDP literally over 20 times throughout the thread, and it is truly becoming tiresome, to the point I have contemplated leaving the forum.   

[Zanme]

The guys go on like Louis is in kindergarten and must be defended all the time and glorified. He is a mature adult put there to do something and if he isn't he must move on. It certainly isn't to serve pockets of stakeholders.

[Zanme]

The only thing that they had to do was create value for stakeholders which they haven't so that is the bottom line they have failed in their duty.

[Zanme]

I fail to understand the logic used by some on this group. I also fail to understand why certain things HAD to take place. Louis had to hire PWC he had to pay the New York guys etc etc. I think a lot of this Steinhoff mess has been created by the management team and the drama they created to justify their salaries. They can tell Christo and GT to sue whom they believe actually wronged them. In this case it will be Christo himself. They could have negotiated with banks on their own. They could have written off goodwill without PwC telling them too. I just don't get it.

[Tentative]

There seems to be a massive disconnect between what is (still) discussed here, and what the market is doing.

 

All the information in below posts is publicly available - how come these shares are not picked up en masse? At the very least, how come we haven't seen the gradual increase after news about seeing formal approval for the settlement (which was echoed by just about all bulls on this forum)? It is incredibly frustrating to see the price slide back to pre-news levels, and I am just grappling to understand why (even when taking into account the long-standing & known risks).

 

It makes me think that I and a lot of people here suffer from a decent dose of confirmation bias as holders. I understand the business looks more stable than a year ago, but: Who saw the JSE fine & stock dump coming? What about yet again a financial reporting delay & stock dump? Does anyone have a take on what could be the next derailing piece of news that comes out? Genuinely asking.

 

I'm a continued holder as I also agree that it's good to have some risky assets in my portfolio - but jeez this is not how a normal stock behaves haha (and I do look partially at management for that). Anyway, onto another day of dumping.

[Zanme]

Delta Hedge who are you to tell me what to do. Time to change management. You can continue making Louis rich if thats what you like I won't.

[Sleepwa123]

They way I've been looking at it is that this was always going to take longer than anticipated. I feel as though LDP and friends are between a rock and a hard place because if they had told us that this whole process would take 5-10 years, stakeholders would have thrown their toys and creditors may have pulled the plug. They had to scrape together what was left and drag us all along with them while they figured it all out.

The complicated web that the former management spun stumped analysts for years but still kept them interested and as a result has taken a long time to unpack and unwind.

 

I do however feel that significant progress has been made because of the following:

1. Proposed settlements this year - Although not agreed to as yet, this is critical to their survival. If this goes through, over night we have a viable business

2. That the underlying businesses seem to be quite defensive in this tough economic environment - i.e. impacted but not as significant as most

3. PEPKOR/PEPCO are fantastic assets and PEPCO is still growing their geographical presence significantly in Europe. Low cost model will do well in tough times.

4. Creditors for both the Steinhoff and subsidiaries seem to be onboard and willing to extend loans - They wouldn't do this if risk of default/liquidation had increased

 

The things that keep me up at night:

1. Conservatorium/Wiese issues may derail the whole process - This could take years to settle although I believe Wiese in his old age wants to put this all behind him

2. A second protracted lockdown in the northern hemisphere may have more severe consequences than the first due to reduced financial resources for the average man in the street. I don't think this is likely as the lockdowns seem to be watered down versions of the first ones but the impact is still significant

 

I'm staying and playing with the knowledge that this is extremely high risk. If it pays off then I'm smiling if it doesn't i'll be mad but will write it off to school fees.

[Investment novice]

Keep a proportion of your portfolio in high risk. And look away...