15225 replies to this topic

[Bubble]

Good movements by the company, progress being made, hopefull that we will get feedback in the week or next on legal progress

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Hope you correct. Almost starts looking like a fire sale when you get two announcement in one weekend.

 

Anybody knows or can find data on directors dealings? They should be allowed to as far as I have it.

[Investment novice]

Good movements by the company, progress being made, hopefull that we will get feedback in the week or next on legal progress

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[Captainfrom82]

My guess is current litigation. However the unit that was sold had losses of around 30 Million €. So guessing it wont be much they got.

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The purchasing company (Alteri) explicitly advised that the transaction was price sensitive.  I have attempted to find out the price using various sources but have not yet been successful. 

 

Although the Blue Group was a negative contributor to the EBITDA, they do hold a number of properties on their books.  These will definitely have value.

 

They may do a deal similar to the Kika Leiner sale where they had a OpCos and a PropCos demarcation.  The OpCos were sold for a nominal one Euro, and the PropCos had a real value.

 

Even then, the actual impact may be very small to being immaterial in the Steinhoff scheme of things (the business is dominated by Pepkor, Pepco, MF, Confo and to a lesser extent Greenlit).  The Blue Groups revenue was 5% of Steinhoff. 

 

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[andi222]

My guess is current litigation. However the unit that was sold had losses of around 30 Million €. So guessing it wont be much they got.

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[Shi]

Benson Bed / Group is sold. Another positive impact for EBITDA.

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No mention of price? Why not disclose the price?

Edited by Shi, 15 November 2019 - 06:55 PM.

[andi222]

Benson Bed / Group is sold. Another positive impact for EBITDA.

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[leo]

https://www.business...rket-contracts/

 

Pepkor, previously Steinhoff Africa Retail, said on Thursday earnings for its year to end-September may fall by a third due to a contraction in the building materials market.

The company has written down its specialised materials company, The Building Company, by R1.2bn, with earnings per share expected to fall by between 22.1% and 32.1% compared with the 83.6c in the prior comparative period.

[leo]

Just like to check the thread every now and then....

[leo]

Just like to check the thread every now and then....

[andi222]

Not really if you issue shares ahead and legal liability resolved expect share price to multiply by 10.
The only dampener is legal. Could also do a proportion of pep sa and pep uk with steinhoff. Better something than nothing..... Without long legal battles... Snh will target wrong doers as well.... All bodes well... Like an africa bank story rather than an enron

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30 November might be a key Date this month for the litigation:

 

So under the Umbrella agreement they have included a possible settlement value. This would be a maximum of 20% of Pepkor SA shares. PHL = Pepkor SA

If you have a look at the SEAG Umbrella Agreement and read the section "Settlement Value" on p. 21, then you will find the corresponding statements regarding the 20 % PHL levy and global settlement:

 

 

"Settlement Value" means an amount of:

a) before 30 November 2019, the value of 20 % of SIHNV's indirect participation in PHL. as set forth in the CVA PHL Notice; or

 

( after 30 November 2019, the lower of 20 % of SIHNV's indirect interest in PHL, as set out in the CVA PHL Communication and the last quarterly PHL Communication,

assuming that:

 

© the amount of 20 % of SIHNV's indirect participation in PHL as set out in the above CVA PHL Notice may be increased with the prior written consent of the majority guarantee creditors;

 

(d) the amount of 20 percent of SIHNV's indirect interest in PHL as set forth in the above quarterly PHL Notice may be increased by up to 30 percent with the prior written consent of the Simple Majority Guarantee creditors and, if above the CVA PHL Notice Cap, with the prior written consent of the Super Majority Guarantee creditors; and

 

(e) 30 November 2019 in paragraphs (a) and ( shall be renewable for (i) 2 months if agreements have been reached before 30 November 2019 (or such later date as may be agreed) that support a proposed permissible global settlement by a required majority of plaintiffs but such permissible global settlement has not been implemented by such date, or (ii) with the consent of the majority guarantee creditors;".

 

20% of Pepkor SA would be 750 Million € of claims. That would be within my range of the 5-10%

[Investment novice]

It would make no sense at all to issue Steinhoff Investment holdings shares. I mean to get 1 Billion € they would need to issue around 18 Billion shares lol.

What I think they mean is to issue shares for example in Pepkor Europe or Pepkor SA. These shares are trading at much better prices.

We'll have to wait and see.

Not really if you issue shares ahead and legal liability resolved expect share price to multiply by 10.
The only dampener is legal. Could also do a proportion of pep sa and pep uk with steinhoff. Better something than nothing..... Without long legal battles... Snh will target wrong doers as well.... All bodes well... Like an africa bank story rather than an enron

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[andi222]

It would make no sense at all to issue Steinhoff Investment holdings shares. I mean to get 1 Billion € they would need to issue around 18 Billion shares lol.

 

What I think they mean is to issue shares for example in Pepkor Europe or Pepkor SA. These shares are trading at much better prices.

 

We'll have to wait and see.

 

[Investment novice]

STEINHOFF SAYS COULD ISSUE SHARES TO HELP SETTLE LAWSUITS

Steinhoff has been battling with the fallout from the scandal after flagging holes in its accounts in December 2017. The company is fighting for its survival, having declared billions of dollars in losses and seen its shareholder equity wiped out.



Wahahahah..... This maybe on the cards.... Andy, with your analysis and this potentially salvaging the liability we set for a minimum 300% increase on current share..... I think more.....


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[DayTraderDad]

Any additional ideas are welcome

Hi Andi excellent post I agree with your figures.

[andi222]

Any additional ideas are welcome

Edited by andi222, 05 November 2019 - 10:27 AM.

[andi222]

It has become quite around Steinhoff. However what needs to happen for Steinhoff to become a giant again by the end of 2021?

 

First of all the legal claims need to be resolved. Management has set this as their number one priority. Hopefully we will see some progress in the early 2020. Out of my experience normally 5%-10% of the total claimed amount is normally settled. So currently Steinhoff is facing roughly 12 billion € of claims. This would mean that settlement would probably be around 0.6 and 1.2 Billion €. This amount then would be split up between auditors, banks, Steinhoff etc. But for now lets assume 0.5 to 1 Billion of claims.

 

Secondly the debt position of the company needs to be reduced. I think the following will need happen to reduce the debt:

Currently net debt lies at 9.1 Billion @ 10% p.a. This would mean that at the end of 2021 we would have debt plus interest sitting at 11.8 billion €.

How will Steinhoff repay this debt? The following needs to happen:

Selling Unitrans - 0.5 billion

Selling Hemisphere properties - 0.8 billion

Selling Greenlit - 0.5 billion

IPO Pepkor europe (25%) - 1 billion

Sell others - No exact amount, but might bring some bucks.

EBITDA for 3 years from remaining operating entities: 3.5 billion (Assuming they keep 71% of Pepkor Europe). 

 

All the Steps above will bring the debt down to (11.8-0.5-0.8-0.5-1-3.5)= 5.5 billion remaining debt @Dec 2021.

Now management needs to refinance this 5.5 Billion € debt at a reasonable interest rate of around 1-2%. 

How will they get to the 1-2% interest? It depends on the Value of Steinhoff.

 

The future Steinhoff SUM-PARTS-VALUE  in Dec 2021 should be the following: (Used an EBITDA mulitple of 10)

Pepkor EU: 4.2 Billion (74% ownership)

Pepkor SA: 4 Billion (71% ownership)

Confo: 1 billion (49% ownership)

Mattress: 1.1 Billion (49% ownership)

Total SUM-PARTS-VALUE in Dec 2021 10.3 billion € 

With this base Steinhoff will be able to get low interest rates.

 

Now also taking the legal claims into account we get to a NET ASSET value of 10.3-6.3- 1 = 3 Billion €

This 3 Billion € would give us an NAV per share of 0.71 € at the end of Dec 2021.

 

Thirdly management needs to improve profitability at all operating subsidiary's

 

This is my own view of what needs to happen for the share price to recover. No recommendation for buying or selling shares. 

Do you guys have any additional steps that need to happen to ensure the Steinhoff becomes a giant again?

 

[Bubble]

Very. Don't think Wiese wants details at this stage. He will launch a counter application

Always said it. MJ was/is CW lapdog doing the dirty business, that PWC report probably shows this.

 

If they can get this in the open and CW smells, the creditors will have a new target and SNH hopefully improves.

[SoleTrader]

Very. Don't think Wiese wants details at this stage. He will launch a counter application

[nosh]

https://amabhungane....inhoff-secrecy/

 

expect it to get messy

[Trader001]

https://www.bloomber...L4krqzgM-Lsc8sU

 

YES YES YES, they are only selling 25%. As i predicted. This is great news. 

Hi Andy,

 

Great..yes...your prediction was correct ..This is great news, I agree.. This share will resurrect itself now from a low base once it can settle some of its litigation problems. This consideration to sell (as per article)  won't be featuring in the news if it is not already a  foregone decision/conclusion. I think it will materialise as and when indicated.

 

Regards