15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

Interesting interview:

 

https://www.cnbcafri...r-a-dead-horse/

[DayTraderDad]

Very interesting article for those that don't know about Algorithm trading (Machine trading):

 

Beware Mr. Market is not a perfect marked and can be manipulated!!!

 

https://www.bloomber...ing-on-steroids

 

Highlights:

 

"Wall Street is fighting the robot revolution by chasing the billions of dollars of stocks bought and sold on autopilot in the dying minutes of every trading day.

 

UBS Group AG and Societe Generale SA are among institutional managers exploiting wild markets near the closing bell as programmatic players -- quants, ETFs and index trackers -- execute orders en masse. They’re offering newfangled trend-following strategies to big-money investors that work over the course of hours and minutes, rather than the traditional timeframe of months and weeks.

 

It’s where the action is. Some 23% of equities trading volume happens in the last half hour, compared with 18% in 2010, New York Stock Exchange data show."

[DayTraderDad]

Hi Captain82 any thoughts on the financials?

[DayTraderDad]

Not sure DTD, I think they wrote it off. However MF is debt free now and they produce a positve EBITDA. So watch how the value will increase in MF. Remember they booked it in as 20 Mil € in HJ 1 2019. That is an absolute joke. 

 

Forecast in the presentation for sustainable EBITDA was 139 in 2019 and 220 in 2020. So again for me the value in MF (50%) lies around 1 to 1.5 Billion €. And I think we will see this increase in the asset in the coming years.

Thanks Andi222 maybe there will be more explanations about the inter company loads once restructuring is implemented.

 

I agree with your thoughts on MF future valuations. Think the future value of Conforama will also improve after their restructured.

[andi222]

Hi Andi222,

 

What are your thoughts on the inter company debt of MF/SUSHI and SNH?

 

Looks like to me the debt staying with SNH and been written off because there is not much talked about it.

 

Not sure DTD, I think they wrote it off. However MF is debt free now and they produce a positve EBITDA. So watch how the value will increase in MF. Remember they booked it in as 20 Mil € in HJ 1 2019. That is an absolute joke. 

 

Forecast in the presentation for sustainable EBITDA was 139 in 2019 and 220 in 2020. So again for me the value in MF (50%) lies around 1 to 1.5 Billion €. And I think we will see this increase in the asset in the coming years.

[DayTraderDad]

Interesting article:

 

https://www.moneyweb...source=Moneyweb

[DayTraderDad]

Hi Andi222,

 

What are your thoughts on the inter company debt of MF/SUSHI and SNH?

 

Looks like to me the debt staying with SNH and been written off because there is not much talked about it.

[DayTraderDad]

Agree we need to wait for all the negativity to blow over and let everybody sell out that wants out. Just need to see what will happen at USA open!!!

 

I believe the pull back is over so now steady upward trend because CVA is nearly done and with it the restructure.

 

All bad news is out and accounts up to date.

 

Once Conforama completed its restructure will be profitable just the saving in 1900 salaries should be on the order of E57 mil/year not to mention saving in inventories and overhead costs on the 32 stores.

 

 

 

 

[Investment novice]

It will be a long way to recovery, however as mentioned by the board they have a plan which they and I believe in.

So next steps would be the following:

- Finalize the CVA - Should be done in 20 business days and before the Analyst day
- Analyst day - I hope management can convince Investors with the Plan
- Q3 numbers- Will be interesting to see where Confo and MF is going.

Other announcements that could come at any time:
- Announcement regarding the disposal of Unitrans and its value. I hope that we can see a value of around 600 Million for the 75%. ( EBITDA times a multiple of 13).
- Announcement of other possible disposals (Greenlit maybe)

This share is not a nuisance for the weak, so stay strong and I think we will be rewarded in the long term.

The obvious truth is snh management has no choice but to include realities in their updates and sens especially risk faced. This protects them from future litigation. They acnnot sell anu pside to this.

But as you pointed out the road to recovery is painted. The biggest hurdle is the restructuring. Market believes this will be protracted and will not be accomplished and this has probably been the reason for hesitancy. This is high gamble....once restructuring complete this entity will again be a going concern and the only risks left will be related to litigation.

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[andi222]

It will be a long way to recovery, however as mentioned by the board they have a plan which they and I believe in.

 

So next steps would be the following:

 

- Finalize the CVA - Should be done in 20 business days and before the Analyst day

- Analyst day - I hope management can convince Investors with the Plan

- Q3 numbers- Will be interesting to see where Confo and MF is going.

 

Other announcements that could come at any time:

- Announcement regarding the disposal of Unitrans and its value. I hope that we can see a value of around 600 Million for the 75%. ( EBITDA times a multiple of 13).

- Announcement of other possible disposals (Greenlit maybe)

 

This share is not a nuisance for the weak, so stay strong and I think we will be rewarded in the long term.

[DayTraderDad]

Interesting article:  https://www.4investo...stock&ID=134661

 

"The financial restructuring of Steinhoff International in Europe is sluggish, but still progressing. According to information from the SDAX-listed company, Steinhoff Europe AG (SEAG) and Steinhoff Finance Holding GmbH (SFHG) have now published the execution conditions in accordance with the SEAG CVA and the SFHG CVA. "This is the next step in the implementation of the restructuring and begins with the period in which the relevant CVA creditors and SFHG creditors should submit their authorization letters," the company said. 

 

Steinhoff now assumes that the restructuring can be completed within 20 days. This would mean a long and expensive tug-of-war between the Steinhoff Group and creditors for the restructuring of high liabilities.

 

Steinhoff International itself had yesterday published the unaudited semi-annual figures for 2018/2019. Turnover at the end of March has risen from € 6.666 billion to € 6.862 billion. The company was able to increase its gross profit from € 2.521 billion to € 2.726 billion. In addition, among other things, the other expenses have fallen significantly, Steinhoff International reported operating profit of 212 million euros for the first half of the fiscal year. The company closed the same period last year with a loss of 78 million euros. The jump into the operating black numbers is likely to be one of the main reasons for the rise in Steinhoff shares yesterday.

 

However, high financing costs offset large parts of the operating profit development again. The cost of financing has risen from € 245 million to € 483 million. On balance, Steinhoff International remains in the red, but can reduce the half-year loss from continuing operations from 392 million euros to 356 million euros. Including discontinued operations, the loss is reduced from 609 million euros to 571 million euros.

 

However, Steinhoff International did not present a concrete outlook for the full 2018/2019 financial year on Friday. "The hard work on financial restructuring in the first half and in previous periods will most likely lead to success in the near future and bring us the stability that will allow us to turn the tables and fully focus on maximizing the value of our operating companies concentrate, "said Steinhoff.

 

[Investment novice]

I am quite keen to start better understanding what the restructuring impact on business structure would be and on the cash flows including net debt.
There would be some debt for equity swaps. Listing of property portfolio potentially and probably pepkor europe.




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[DayTraderDad]

Interesting Conforama looks set to stay:

 

Insert from page 13:

 

"The Management

Board has considered the shareholding and

governance structures of Conforama and determined

that the Group has retained control of Conforama.

Management has similarly determined that Conforama

had not met the requirements to be classified as held-

for-sale at the Reporting Date or as a discontinued

operation."

[andi222]

So I have done a new basic valuation (Really keeping it to the basics with lots of assumptions). However it kind of gives you a bigger picture where we are going:

 

Sustainable EBITDA reported for half the year is: 544 Mil €. So I'm expecting that for the full year we would see an sustainable EBITDA of between 1 and 1.1 Billion €

I have now used a basic EBITDA multiple of 13 (Currently used in the retail environment) we get to a total value of around 13 Billion €.

Subtracting the the net debt of 9.1 Billion we actually get to a value of 3,9 Billion € which would be around 93 cents per share.

 

Even if one uses an EBITDA multiple of 10 (Which is really low compared to the industry) we still get to a value of around 1 Billion or 25 cents per share.

 

So for me there is great potential here. 

 

And for all those that say the debt levels are not sustainable please go have a look again. 

Sustainable EBITDA is 544 and actual interest accrued is 421 and taxes paid 114. So there is a PLUS of 9.

And now think again which of the above three numbers is likely to change in the next three years?

 

EBITDA will grow with 7-10% per annum

Interest accrued won't go up as the debt is fixed for 3 years. It might only go down with repayments.

Taxes will like go up 7-10% per annum as well.

So overall Steinhoff will be able to pay its interest obligations. 

 

Again this is my own opinion and no recommendation for buying or selling shares.

[andi222]

 

Interesting observation from the latest fins:

 

Looking at continuing operation only:

 

Margin EBITDA to Revenue:

                          

                              2018       2019 

Pepkor Europe:      7.68%      8.75%

Conforama:            1.91%      1.06%

Other:                     -0.98%     -1.83%

Pepkor SA:             11.32%    11.55%

Greenlit:                    5.12%      2.17%

 

Margin Profit to Revenue:

                          

                                 2018       2019 

 

Pepkor Europe:      5.78%      6.78%

 

Conforama:            0.38%      -0.5%

 

Other:                     -4.11%     -4.67%

 

Pepkor SA:             9.64%    9.78%

 

Greenlit:                    2.95%      0.16%

 

So Pepkor EU is catching up to the margins of Pepkor SA. There is still lot of work to be done to get some units turned around.

 

Nice weekend all SNH well in the way to recovery!!!!

 

 

Yeah really nice to see that basically most of the ratios have improved. I even think that for the second half of the year we will see further improvements. 

[DayTraderDad]

Interesting observation from the latest fins:

 

Looking at continuing operation only:

 

Margin EBITDA to Revenue:

                          

                              2018       2019 

Pepkor Europe:      7.68%      8.75%

Conforama:            1.91%      1.06%

Other:                     -0.98%     -1.83%

Pepkor SA:             11.32%    11.55%

Greenlit:                    5.12%      2.17%

 

Margin Profit to Revenue:

                          

                                 2018       2019 

 

Pepkor Europe:      5.78%      6.78%

 

Conforama:            0.38%      -0.5%

 

Other:                     -4.11%     -4.67%

 

Pepkor SA:             9.64%    9.78%

 

Greenlit:                    2.95%      0.16%

 

So Pepkor EU is catching up to the margins of Pepkor SA. There is still lot of work to be done to get some units turned around.

 

Nice weekend all SNH well in the way to recovery!!!!

[andi222]

Andi/ dtd....i cant recall if the finance xosts are once off for the majority of the issues or whether we expect this to double for full year results. A large proportion would also be for the restructuring. With this be accounted for totally now ?

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Hi IN, just to clear things up in note 5 Finance cost one can see the break down of the finance cost. Here you can see that 62 Million relates to consent fees, roll over fees, early bird lock up fees and transaction costs incurred. As far as I understood these fees are once off and won't be recurring. So they won't double for the year. 

 

So the actual finance cost is: 421 Euro. Interest received amounts to 23 Million. So the sustainable EBITDA can cover this which is sitting at 544 at the moment.

 

Now the interesting part however is that only 88 Million was paid. So the rest will be capitalized to the borrowings. See note 14.1. 

 

I'm also pretty sure they will use the cash to reduce the debt as soon as possible and to find new sources of funding. For example to issue new bonds once the company is stable. 

[DayTraderDad]

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Excellent news!!!! 

[Investment novice]

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To be completed within 20 days...hopefully by next friday.....nice...

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[andi222]

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