15225 replies to this topic

[andi222]

 

Having said that, I recall reading somewhere about a date in Dec 2018.  Anyone got a source

 

Page 29 of the annual report:

 

"The Management Board has considered the

shareholding and governance structures of

Conforama and expects that the Group will

lose control of Conforama during the 2019

Reporting Period. Subsequent to the loss of

control, Conforama will be accounted for as

an equity accounted investment."

 

So I think we will see this in HJ 1 already

[Captainfrom82]

The deconsolidation of Confo will be effective 11 April 2019 making that the date that they lost control of Confo.  This is 11 days after the 1H19 close-off.

 

The 1H19 results though will reflect something along those lines.  So we may be able to make an educated estimate.

 

Having said that, I recall reading somewhere about a date in Dec 2018.  Anyone got a source?

[Captainfrom82]

Hi Andi maybe I missed the Confo info thought it was only going to happen on H2-2019.

 

The deconsolidation of Confo will be effective 11 April 2019 making that the date that they lost control of Confo.  This is 11 days after the 1H19 close-off.

 

The 1H19 results though will reflect something along those lines.  So we may be able to make an educated estimate.

[DayTraderDad]

The posting below is my opinion and does not constitute investment advice.  I am not a CFA in South Africa, and the views below are for discussion.
 
Hi DTD,
 
Regarding the shareholder litigation, it is my view that a significant portion of the litigation settlement will be paid by the experts that Steinhoff relied on.  There are 43 co-respondents.  Every one of them and their own insurers will put up a defense.  Then there may be appeals, multiple appeals.  Do you know how slowly Courts work?  Especially for matters of this nature.  Claims of this nature usually easily exceed 10 years in the US.  They may settle a lot earlier, but I think that we will be following this for years to come yet.
 
Further, despite the views of other "experts" articulated on this Group,  I do not think that CW's claim is as cut and dried as all that.  In fact, I would put his chance of a successful outcome below 10% (this is based on my personal research done - I could be wrong). 
 
The other vendor claims are actually chicken-feed for Steinhoff to settle as they appear large in ZAR terms but in Euro terms are less than E200m.
 
Irrespective of what the market thinks there is a deep value in Steinhoff.  Only three sets of stakeholders could cause this company to go belly-up.  We have just discussed two of them above (litigant shareholders and litigant vendors).  This only leaves the creditors. 
 
They have no interest is folding Steinhoff as their claims would amount to a pittance.  They have already signed the LUA and CVA (continuously iterated). 
 
If ones steps back and takes a long cold sober look, there are risks, but this company will still be around by Nov 2021.
 
Best Regards
Captainfrom82

Hi Captain,

Thank you I will still be able to go to PEPCO well into the 2030's. For me if SNH was going to fold would have been in Jan 2018.
I really laugh to myself the time that it was very dangerous for SNH survival the share was much higher now that stability is close
the share is at its lowest. Totally irrational.

Anyway just my thoughts.

Regards,
DTD

[DayTraderDad]

Hi DTD,
 
thanks for your forecast. Just one point to consider. As far as I understood from the 2018 Annual report is that Confo will be shown as discontinued operation as well. 
And another point. STAR has published their results already and taking the exchange rate on 31 March 2019 (16 Rands to the euro) you get 2.2 Billion.
 
Otherwise looks like we have quite the same figures. Let's cross fingers and see what happens.

Hi Andi maybe I missed the Confo info thought it was only going to happen on H2-2019.

[DayTraderDad]

Hi Captain,
 
thanks for your response. With regards to Greenlit, I think they will sell it in the near term. So you might be correct in saying that they might impair it. Just as they did for MF.
 
With regards to the CVA, I think/hope they can finalise it in August. The HJ 1 results won't be audited so I think the CVA for now won't impact the going concern for that audit opinion. 
 
So for me the biggest questions on the balance sheet (Only looking at Equity) are the following:
- What impact will the deconsolidation of MF, Unitrans and Confo have? I looked at the latest balance sheets of MF and Confo both showing huge negative equity. MF had 1 Billion and Confo 500 Million. The next question would be at what value will they book in the investment in associate for MF and Confo? I mean they can't book in a negative asset. So must be some value there? Maybe cost-impairment- losses? 
- What impact will the loan to MF have? Will it be booked in as an asset for the Group?
 
So we currently have around 600 equity. If we deconsolidate MF and Confo we can add 1.5 billion. That would give us an equity of 2.1 billion assuming that Steinhoff will break even for the year.
If we now look at the value of Confo and MF that need to be booked in as assets we might get another 500 Million as assets? 
 
So I think that equity will jump to between 2 and 3 billion Euro. My own opinion and not advise for selling or buying. 
What do you think Captain? At what value do you see Equity? Other are welcome to comment as well.

Andi my 5 cents:

For me if creditors give the required approval for Consent 4 and SNH is not planning any further changes then the CVA is done because
what is left to do is simply procedural.

In the AFS 2018 there is already allocations in the balance sheet for the Assets and disposal groups classified as held-for-sale
and Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held-for-sale.
The only think for me is what will happen with the debt of MF which is about 2.1 bil??

I think Confo will only be deconcolidated in the H2 - 2019.

[Captainfrom82]

To me after reading Captain post the claims are not clear cut as it looks this going to take long years to sort.

If CW was warned and he then did not listen sure the story of the lightning from the blue cannot hold in front of a judge.

 

The posting below is my opinion and does not constitute investment advice.  I am not a CFA in South Africa, and the views below are for discussion.

 

Hi DTD,

 

Regarding the shareholder litigation, it is my view that a significant portion of the litigation settlement will be paid by the experts that Steinhoff relied on.  There are 43 co-respondents.  Every one of them and their own insurers will put up a defense.  Then there may be appeals, multiple appeals.  Do you know how slowly Courts work?  Especially for matters of this nature.  Claims of this nature usually easily exceed 10 years in the US.  They may settle a lot earlier, but I think that we will be following this for years to come yet.

 

Further, despite the views of other "experts" articulated on this Group,  I do not think that CW's claim is as cut and dried as all that.  In fact, I would put his chance of a successful outcome below 10% (this is based on my personal research done - I could be wrong). 

 

The other vendor claims are actually chicken-feed for Steinhoff to settle as they appear large in ZAR terms but in Euro terms are less than E200m.

 

Irrespective of what the market thinks there is a deep value in Steinhoff.  Only three sets of stakeholders could cause this company to go belly-up.  We have just discussed two of them above (litigant shareholders and litigant vendors).  This only leaves the creditors. 

 

They have no interest is folding Steinhoff as their claims would amount to a pittance.  They have already signed the LUA and CVA (continuously iterated). 

 

If ones steps back and takes a long cold sober look, there are risks, but this company will still be around by Nov 2021.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[andi222]

Thanks Captain & Andi great posts.

I have different figures as below: (Usualy Q2 figures are lower than the Q1)

REVENUE CONTINUED OPERATION

Pepkor Europe: 1744
Conforama: 1692
Other: 420
Properties: 6
Pepkor SA: 2171
Greenlit Brands:631

Total revenue: 6664

EBITDA CONTINUED OPERATION

Pepkor Europe: 155
Conforama: 76
Other: 9
Properties: 6
Pepkor SA: 245
Greenlit Brands:32

Total EBITDA: 522

 

Hi DTD,

 

thanks for your forecast. Just one point to consider. As far as I understood from the 2018 Annual report is that Confo will be shown as discontinued operation as well. 

And another point. STAR has published their results already and taking the exchange rate on 31 March 2019 (16 Rands to the euro) you get 2.2 Billion.

 

Otherwise looks like we have quite the same figures. Let's cross fingers and see what happens.

[DayTraderDad]

Thanks Captain & Andi great posts.

I have different figures as below: (Usualy Q2 figures are lower than the Q1)

REVENUE CONTINUED OPERATION

Pepkor Europe: 1744
Conforama: 1692
Other: 420
Properties: 6
Pepkor SA: 2171
Greenlit Brands:631

Total revenue: 6664

EBITDA CONTINUED OPERATION

Pepkor Europe: 155
Conforama: 76
Other: 9
Properties: 6
Pepkor SA: 245
Greenlit Brands:32

Total EBITDA: 522

[andi222]

DTD, I was going to message you off-Group.  But since Andi22 posted, my response to you would have been similar to my thoughts below.

 

It is interesting that we are ballpark.

 

I have total revenue from continuing and discontinued operations at E7777 to E8655 and Group EBITDA at E469 to E487.

 

Overall, I am extremely heartened that although Goodwill & Intangibles (E4485) make up over 39% of Steinhoff's total assets , that over 94% of this is attributable to their Pepkor Africa and Pepkor Europe businesses.  Confo has zero G & I, and as a result we should not see any significant impairments that may push Steinhoff into a huge loss.  There may be a small accounting loss, but lets see!

 

It will be a significant event though, as the sooner the Accumulated Losses in the Balance Sheet is paired, the sooner we contribute positively to equity.

 

It is possible (and I am even expecting it) that Steinhoff will impair Greenlit by the full E172

 

Steinhoff is clearly not going to sort out the CVA before the 1H19.  They may decide that if the CVA finality is imminent that they could delay 1H19 to after 9 August 2019.  The market may not take this well even though it could actually be the best long term approach.

 

It is a delicate matter.

 

Nice post Andi222, want to compare notes about the projected Balance Sheet?

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

 

Hi Captain,

 

thanks for your response. With regards to Greenlit, I think they will sell it in the near term. So you might be correct in saying that they might impair it. Just as they did for MF.

 

With regards to the CVA, I think/hope they can finalise it in August. The HJ 1 results won't be audited so I think the CVA for now won't impact the going concern for that audit opinion. 

 

So for me the biggest questions on the balance sheet (Only looking at Equity) are the following:

- What impact will the deconsolidation of MF, Unitrans and Confo have? I looked at the latest balance sheets of MF and Confo both showing huge negative equity. MF had 1 Billion and Confo 500 Million. The next question would be at what value will they book in the investment in associate for MF and Confo? I mean they can't book in a negative asset. So must be some value there? Maybe cost-impairment- losses? 

- What impact will the loan to MF have? Will it be booked in as an asset for the Group?

 

So we currently have around 600 equity. If we deconsolidate MF and Confo we can add 1.5 billion. That would give us an equity of 2.1 billion assuming that Steinhoff will break even for the year.

If we now look at the value of Confo and MF that need to be booked in as assets we might get another 500 Million as assets? 

 

So I think that equity will jump to between 2 and 3 billion Euro. My own opinion and not advise for selling or buying. 

What do you think Captain? At what value do you see Equity? Other are welcome to comment as well.

[DayTraderDad]

Steinhof needs a get out of jail strategy...they going to have to settle debt , settle legal issue ...some part of it...., and they going to need a revived share price and equity swaps. By back your shares and on settlement reissue them as part of settlement.
The entire legal settlement will not be for snh account. No doubt the company was deceived and the controls in place had failed. Deloittes and their insurers will be liable for a significant chunk and not snh.
Any other auditors that were involved are also goung to have to cough up....


Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

To me after reading Captain post the claims are not clear cut as it looks this going to take long years to sort.

If CW was warned and he then did not listen sure the story of the lightning from the blue cannot hold in front of a judge.

[Captainfrom82]

I think from next week the share price will rise steeply when the 7 cent holds. My personal forecast for the HJ 1 2019 is as follows. Source: all published reports, presentations etc on the Steinhoff website. For info: This is my own forecast and no buy or sell recommendation.

Revenue: STAR: 2200 Pepkor Europe: 1950 Greenlit: 650 Other: 400 Total Revenue: 5200 Other Revenue from discontinued operation: Mattress 1250 Conforama 1750 Unitrans 800 Total discontinued 3802 My EBITDA forecast: STAR: 250 Pepkor Europe: 150 Greenlit: 25 Other: 0 Total EBITDA: 425 Other Revenue from discontinued operation: Mattress 70 Conforama 25 Unitrans 35 Total discontinued 130 I would estimate total EBITDA at about 550 million euros for the 6 months. For the whole year then over 1 billion euros. What do you guys think? Any other forcast or ideas? For info: This is my own forecast and no buy or sell recommendation. Source: all published reports, presentations etc on the Steinhoff website

I think from next week it will rise steeply when the 7 cent holds. My personal forecast for the HJ 1 2019 pay is as follows. Source: all published reports, presentations etc on the Steinhoff website. For info: This is my own forecast and no buy or sell recommendation. Revenue: STAR: 2200 Pepkor Europe: 1950 Greenlit: 650 Other: 400 Total Revenue: 5200 Other Revenue from discontinued operation: Mattress 1250 Conforama 1750 Unitrans 800 Total discontinued 3802 My EBITDA forecast: STAR: 250 Pepkor Europe: 150 Greenlit: 25 Other: 0 Total EBITDA: 425 Other Revenue from discontinued operation: Mattress 70 Conforama 25 Unitrans 35 Total discontinued 130 I would estimate total EBITDA at about 550 million euros for the 6 months. For the whole year then over 1 billion euros. What do you think? For info: This is my own forecast and no buy or sell recommendation. Source: all published reports, presentations etc on the Steinhoff website

 

DTD, I was going to message you off-Group.  But since Andi22 posted, my response to you would have been similar to my thoughts below.

 

It is interesting that we are ballpark.

 

I have total revenue from continuing and discontinued operations at E7777 to E8655 and Group EBITDA at E469 to E487.

 

Overall, I am extremely heartened that although Goodwill & Intangibles (E4485) make up over 39% of Steinhoff's total assets , that over 94% of this is attributable to their Pepkor Africa and Pepkor Europe businesses.  Confo has zero G & I, and as a result we should not see any significant impairments that may push Steinhoff into a huge loss.  There may be a small accounting loss, but lets see!

 

It will be a significant event though, as the sooner the Accumulated Losses in the Balance Sheet is paired, the sooner we contribute positively to equity.

 

It is possible (and I am even expecting it) that Steinhoff will impair Greenlit by the full E172

 

Steinhoff is clearly not going to sort out the CVA before the 1H19.  They may decide that if the CVA finality is imminent that they could delay 1H19 to after 9 August 2019.  The market may not take this well even though it could actually be the best long term approach.

 

It is a delicate matter.

 

Nice post Andi222, want to compare notes about the projected Balance Sheet?

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

Edited by Captainfrom82, 25 June 2019 - 01:46 PM.

[DayTraderDad]

It was not all a cover up or short-cut analysis.  It seemed that many people, professional analysts as well as key stakeholders (eg. the PIC, GT Ferreira, Christo Wiese, all the Banks who either loaned Steinhoff funds or bought their bonds, etc)  just wanted to believe and as a result ignored the red flags. 
 
Hindsight as they say is 20/20 vision.
 
Craig Butters is to be commended for keeping Prudential out of the hype, and for this reason alone, many people could do worse than leave your investments with the company.  Compare that to The PIC, Coronation, Anchor and many others. 
 
Butters apparently as far back as 2009 warned CW that Steinhoff's earning were overstated by (his then estimate) of 40%.  Apparently Christo Wiese chose to ignore this, although he denies this.
 
However, the point remains, that even if the earnings were overstated by 40% or 50%, that means that over 50% of Steinhoff's earnings had value and quality.
 
I am fascinated to see just how Steinhoff goes about pairing that debt.
 
Best Regards
Captainfrom82

Great post Captain yes I remember at the time of the listing in Frankfurt there was talk about people using SNH as a vehicle to take loads of
money offshore so maybe that's why they were not able to listen/see the warning!!!

[Investment novice]

Steinhof needs a get out of jail strategy...they going to have to settle debt , settle legal issue ...some part of it...., and they going to need a revived share price and equity swaps. By back your shares and on settlement reissue them as part of settlement.
The entire legal settlement will not be for snh account. No doubt the company was deceived and the controls in place had failed. Deloittes and their insurers will be liable for a significant chunk and not snh.
Any other auditors that were involved are also goung to have to cough up....


Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[andi222]

I think from next week the share price will rise steeply when the 7 cent holds. My personal forecast for the HJ 1 2019 is as follows. Source: all published reports, presentations etc on the Steinhoff website. For info: This is my own forecast and no buy or sell recommendation.

Revenue: STAR: 2200 Pepkor Europe: 1950 Greenlit: 650 Other: 400 Total Revenue: 5200 Other Revenue from discontinued operation: Mattress 1250 Conforama 1750 Unitrans 800 Total discontinued 3802 My EBITDA forecast: STAR: 250 Pepkor Europe: 150 Greenlit: 25 Other: 0 Total EBITDA: 425 Other Revenue from discontinued operation: Mattress 70 Conforama 25 Unitrans 35 Total discontinued 130 I would estimate total EBITDA at about 550 million euros for the 6 months. For the whole year then over 1 billion euros. What do you guys think? Any other forcast or ideas? For info: This is my own forecast and no buy or sell recommendation. Source: all published reports, presentations etc on the Steinhoff website

I think from next week it will rise steeply when the 7 cent holds. My personal forecast for the HJ 1 2019 pay is as follows. Source: all published reports, presentations etc on the Steinhoff website. For info: This is my own forecast and no buy or sell recommendation. Revenue: STAR: 2200 Pepkor Europe: 1950 Greenlit: 650 Other: 400 Total Revenue: 5200 Other Revenue from discontinued operation: Mattress 1250 Conforama 1750 Unitrans 800 Total discontinued 3802 My EBITDA forecast: STAR: 250 Pepkor Europe: 150 Greenlit: 25 Other: 0 Total EBITDA: 425 Other Revenue from discontinued operation: Mattress 70 Conforama 25 Unitrans 35 Total discontinued 130 I would estimate total EBITDA at about 550 million euros for the 6 months. For the whole year then over 1 billion euros. What do you think? For info: This is my own forecast and no buy or sell recommendation. Source: all published reports, presentations etc on the Steinhoff website

[Captainfrom82]

Interesting article, makes it hard to believe a high profile business people never new or suspected issues with SNH!!!

https://prudential.c...ff-s-red-flags/

 

It was not all a cover up or short-cut analysis.  It seemed that many people, professional analysts as well as key stakeholders (eg. the PIC, GT Ferreira, Christo Wiese, all the Banks who either loaned Steinhoff funds or bought their bonds, etc)  just wanted to believe and as a result ignored the red flags. 

 

Hindsight as they say is 20/20 vision.

 

Craig Butters is to be commended for keeping Prudential out of the hype, and for this reason alone, many people could do worse than leave your investments with the company.  Compare that to The PIC, Coronation, Anchor and many others. 

 

Butters apparently as far back as 2009 warned CW that Steinhoff's earning were overstated by (his then estimate) of 40%.  Apparently Christo Wiese chose to ignore this, although he denies this.

 

However, the point remains, that even if the earnings were overstated by 40% or 50%, that means that over 50% of Steinhoff's earnings had value and quality.

 

I am fascinated to see just how Steinhoff goes about pairing that debt.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[Milo]

Christo Wiese talks to CNBC Africa tonight at 19.30

[DayTraderDad]

Interesting article, makes it hard to believe a high profile business people never new or suspected issues with SNH!!!

https://prudential.c...ff-s-red-flags/

[Polly]

 

 

A company that is running large losses, with a very anemic NAV buying back its own shares, is akin to that spendthrift friend of yours with no pension who is always going overseas on holiday!  It is a very poor decision indeed.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

 

Boet you not reading the market are you??

 

im visiting your country next end August 2019 for 2 weeks with monies i made shorting the PS... Maybe we can hook up..

If pension fund,  bet those fund managers would have taken a huge knock on ps already and my monies will be in danger...RE PIC...Here i have full control of my finances...SIMPLE!!

 

 

Heres what one of my trading collages  sent me over the weekend: read it thrice to understand.................

 

"When I read this I thought of you P. You mostly operate in this mode

 

The best traders have evolved to the point where they believe,
without a shred of doubt or internal conflict, that "anything can happen."
They don't just suspect that anything can happen or give lip
service to the idea. Their belief in uncertainty is so powerful that it
actually prevents their minds from associating the "now moment" situation
and circumstance with the outcomes of their most recent
trades. By preventing this association, they are able to keep their minds
free of unrealistic and rigid expectations about how the market will
express itself. Instead of generating the kind of unrealistic expectations
that more often than not result in both emotional and financial
pain, they have learned to "make themselves available" to take advantage
of whatever opportunities the market may offer in any given
moment."

..

 

 

Cheers and good luck

[DayTraderDad]

25.06.2019 ( www.4investors.de ) - Has the Steinhoff share done the worst? Yesterday, the share price of the SDAX-listed trading group came once again close to the all-time low. New sell signals pushed the title up to 0.0742 euros, the all-time low at 0.071 euros and the underlying technical support technical data were not put in danger. Ultimately, the Steinhoff share was able to recover in the further course of trading on Monday, a rebreak attempt at the 8-cent mark failed but in late XETRA trading. With 0.0793 Euro and 1.49 per cent per day Steinhoff's share price finally ended yesterday's trading and is currently reporting indications just below the 8 cent mark.

In the Tuesday trading could therefore come to further attempts of the Steinhoff share to exceed the here lying and yesterday fell below the signal range at the 8 cent mark again. Although such a development would not be the end of the overarching bear market for the Steinhoff share, it could nevertheless lighten the short-term trend perspective. By comparison, at the end of February, the last downward movement started at 0.1428 euros, on 8 May there was again an interim high at 0.1362 euros. Steinhoff's share price has long been obsolete with previous prices - in December 2017, the company uncovered a billion-dollar accounting scandal, which continues to strike society today.

The other chart technical scenarios for the Steinhoff share remain as sketched last. The weaker support zone at 0.0745 / 0.077 euros was in the spotlight yesterday, has been slightly undercut in the meantime, but has finally been able to withstand the pressure. Accordingly, the final line of defense for Steinhoff's share price above the all-time low, which is quoted at € 0.071, is extended to the range above € 0.0742 / € 0.0745. At the latest at the all-time low, the support should therefore be stronger, but in a test of this brand, a new sell-signal would be anything but impossible in view of the superordinate intact bear market.

By contrast, the range at the 8 cent mark remains a clear and strong resistance area for the Steinhoff share. This starts at the latest at 0.0799 euros and extends to 0.0816 / 0.0825 euros. In addition comes to 0,085 euros further resistance. If these buy-in technical buy signals, there could be speculation on a clearer recovery.