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#8421 LarryK

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 12:23 PM

This share price increase does look organic as the volumes are actually quite low? Not just a pump and dump or short squeeze?
I agree with a post below; AFS 2017 warned investors to expect more main with AFS 2018 so this is hopefully calculated into share price
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#8422 andi222

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 10:29 AM

Hi Andi great post indeed I agree with you there and charts also confirming a upward move but a reality we need to face is the AFS 2018 might
show a negative NAV because there are still a few things to come and could even show negative (MF was making serious losses) even on income and
again there will be auditors unpleasant comments because the restructuring not complete.

I hope that am wrong but when the AFS 2018 come out it will be a rough ride for a while then the steady long term rise to the H1 -2019.

The only saving grace would be if the likes of Allen Gray decide to mop up the shares then we are in a winning seat.

Anyway wee nearly there hold on to your seat belts!!!

 

Hi DTD,

 

I wouldn't put too much value on the NAV for a retailer. I mean they have written so much value off but all these write-offs where of a non-cash basis. So actually no impact for the business. 

 

My focus lies on the revenue and the most important one the sustainable EBITDA. I think that revenue will come in at between 16.5 and 17.5 Billion euro. I hope EBITDA will come in between 650 and 750 Million euro. 

 

If I can see these figures and maybe some higher figures I will top up my holding. If the number are below that I will reconsider and wait for HJ 2019.

 

But if they can produce those number I mentioned above in 2018 which was a really tough year for Steinhoff we will see this share climb very hard in near future. 

 

Remember there was no dilution in shares nor where any shops closed during this tough time. If you look at company's that went bust all had big share dilutions or their operations have stopped. 

 

Thumbs crossed for next week.


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#8423 Investment novice

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 12:46 AM

Hi Andi great post indeed I agree with you there and charts also confirming a upward move but a reality we need to face is the AFS 2018 might
show a negative NAV because there are still a few things to come and could even show negative (MF was making serious losses) even on income and
again there will be auditors unpleasant comments because the restructuring not complete.

I hope that am wrong but when the AFS 2018 come out it will be a rough ride for a while then the steady long term rise to the H1 -2019.

The only saving grace would be if the likes of Allen Gray decide to mop up the shares then we are in a winning seat.

Anyway wee nearly there hold on to your seat belts!!!


It does seem as 2018 impact already factored in but as you say can expect the pump and dump again with all the negaitive sentiments. The H1 2019 will be a significant change compared to 2018 as we see the mf turnaround reflected as well as sales momentum and improvements.

Agm is also going to be an eye opener following restructuring and i expect this is where snh will request vote to support specific management strategies to return value and / reprice share

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#8424 DayTraderDad

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Posted 12 June 2019 - 10:17 PM

DTD,

I think this time the increase will be sustainable and I'm sure the share will continue to rise. Why do I think so:

1. AFS 2018 will be relesed next week. Either good or bad doesmt matter. I think all suprises where included in 2017. The good thing is these AFS will be one of the cleanest put there on the stock exchanges.

2. Lock up agreement will be finalised this month.

3. HJ results to be released soon which will in my opinion show that Steinhoff is able to pay all interest and produce a profit.

4. Analyst day coming up which will show us where we heading. In my opinion will be very positive as all subsidiarys are peofitable in 2019.

5. Legal claims will drag for years and I'm pretty sure Wiese will drop his claim as he holds 13% of the company. Why sue hinself???

6. Insitutions have uped their interest in Steinhoff to 18% the last month.

There are numerous other points to list but I think the worst is over and we will very soon see a strong Steinhoff back in action. Thats my lpinion currently, no advice to buy etc bla bla bla.



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Hi Andi great post indeed I agree with you there and charts also confirming a upward move but a reality we need to face is the AFS 2018 might
show a negative NAV because there are still a few things to come and could even show negative (MF was making serious losses) even on income and
again there will be auditors unpleasant comments because the restructuring not complete.

I hope that am wrong but when the AFS 2018 come out it will be a rough ride for a while then the steady long term rise to the H1 -2019.

The only saving grace would be if the likes of Allen Gray decide to mop up the shares then we are in a winning seat.

Anyway wee nearly there hold on to your seat belts!!!
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#8425 andi222

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Posted 12 June 2019 - 09:44 PM

DTD,

I think this time the increase will be sustainable and I'm sure the share will continue to rise. Why do I think so:

1. AFS 2018 will be relesed next week. Either good or bad doesmt matter. I think all suprises where included in 2017. The good thing is these AFS will be one of the cleanest put there on the stock exchanges.

2. Lock up agreement will be finalised this month.

3. HJ results to be released soon which will in my opinion show that Steinhoff is able to pay all interest and produce a profit.

4. Analyst day coming up which will show us where we heading. In my opinion will be very positive as all subsidiarys are peofitable in 2019.

5. Legal claims will drag for years and I'm pretty sure Wiese will drop his claim as he holds 13% of the company. Why sue hinself???

6. Insitutions have uped their interest in Steinhoff to 18% the last month.

There are numerous other points to list but I think the worst is over and we will very soon see a strong Steinhoff back in action. Thats my lpinion currently, no advice to buy etc bla bla bla.



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#8426 DayTraderDad

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Posted 12 June 2019 - 04:05 PM

Steinhoff: Mysterious price movement

http://www.deraktion...tion-490430.htm


What's going on there? Six days before Steinhoff presents the eagerly awaited annual report for 2018, the penny stock jumps up on Wednesday, gaining eleven percent in the meantime. The forums also puzzle over the background. Is there anybody speculating on a positive balance sheet?

It's like many times with Steinhoff: nebulous. There are no news on Wednesday, and yet the stock switches to rally mode.

The gamblers already smell morning air. Some people are particularly bullish in the investor forums.

Striking: In the run-up to the figures for 2017 in early May, it was similar. The Steinhoff share gained 16 percent within a few days. The numbers were catastrophic and the stock crashed on the day of the submission after rising sharply in the morning. Since the presentation of the numbers to date, the price loss amounts to 31 percent.

Edited by DayTraderDad, 12 June 2019 - 04:09 PM.

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#8427 DayTraderDad

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Posted 12 June 2019 - 10:28 AM

12.06.2019 ( www.4investors.de ) - It has become quiet around the Steinhoff share, but now something could happen . Yesterday, the paper managed to achieve a tangible price gain on a closing price basis. By 3.54 percent, it went up to almost 0.085 euros, during the course of the day was at 0.0861 euros, the daily high noted. All in all, this is not exactly the breakthrough in the technical analysis for the Steinhoff share, but together with developments in the days before, it could be interesting here.

The look at the price since May 23 shows a potential bottoming. This takes place in the new technical support between 0.0816 euros and 0.0799 euros. The bearish low was reached on June 4, since then stabilized the stock price of the SDAX-listed retail group.

In the answer to the question of whether there could be a price recovery, first obstacles play around 0.085 / 0.086 euros a major role. If the Steinhoff share can overcome this, further hurdles at 0.089 / 0.091 euros and 0.093 / 0.095 would be the first price target. The starting zone shows various hurdles in quick succession and extends to the 10 cent mark. Subsequent buy signals in this area would be for Steinhoffs share trading buy signals, which could fuel a short-term recovery movement.

But if they do not, the pressure on the support zone at the 8 cent mark could grow significantly. Then it is not far to the all-time low at 0.071 euros and the previously reached intermediate support zone at 0.075 / 0.077 euros.
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#8428 DayTraderDad

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Posted 12 June 2019 - 10:16 AM

Volumes of shares available are drying up and so would again see demand push the share price up..cauatios demand or punpers hoping to drive the price and dump afs 2018 , however may see continued gentle momentum and further traction pushing through end june with restrucuring and then on for a few days with up and downs based on profit taking.

Play the trend...and then as soon as you get chats targetting you then you know the short is on...

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Yes I agree but AFS 2018 not going to be a good picture and restructure cannot be done in time (by 18th June) so does it really justify this run up??
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#8429 Investment novice

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Posted 12 June 2019 - 10:10 AM

Is this a short squeeze or a real recovery???


Volumes of shares available are drying up and so would again see demand push the share price up..cauatios demand or punpers hoping to drive the price and dump afs 2018 , however may see continued gentle momentum and further traction pushing through end june with restrucuring and then on for a few days with up and downs based on profit taking.

Play the trend...and then as soon as you get chats targetting you then you know the short is on...

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#8430 DayTraderDad

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Posted 12 June 2019 - 09:56 AM

Is this a short squeeze or a real recovery???
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#8431 Midas1

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 09:38 PM

Was in uk over Easter...i dont think poundland can save day but...massive queues cheap cheap..toblerone for 1 pound...thats awesome..profitability i don't know...but lets be optimistic..if they get that right possibilities...there's always solution to every problem..just hope not closure
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#8432 Investment novice

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 08:39 PM

Poundland continues to shrug off the misery on the high street with a 1.6pc rise in half-year sales.
Shutting poorly performing branches, opening shops in better locations and snapping up leases as competitors went bust helped the discount retailer boost sales to €920m (£812m) in the six months to the end of March


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#8433 andi222

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 04:28 PM

I also think we will see a nice little increase until AFS for 2018 are released. Day by day. Wonder if they will release AFS again at Midnight haha. 


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#8434 Milo

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 07:11 PM

Nice little inverted head and shoulders forming at end of chart. Maybe a little bump up in next few days.

 


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#8435 Investment novice

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:26 PM

Looks like we’re waiting a little longer then burnt...

Did everyone run out of data or airtime on here😂

I’m sure I’ll get criticized for this but I’m going to hold onto this stock for a while. If they have an audited 2018 AFS, half decent results h1 2019 and can quantify and defend the legal cases, snh should see a good recovery.
Perkor showed strong growth in an economy that’s f@cked. Pepco Europe is doing well and mf should see good recovery. Remember mf is the largest mattress retailer in the US.




Its basically a waiting game now. You will see lots of people get on band wagon once the restructuring is complete.
I am nibbling and loading my shares at this price within my allocation of shares.
Hang tight


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#8436 andi222

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Posted 09 June 2019 - 05:21 PM

So for me AFS 2018 will be kind of a non event. Might see some ups and downs on the day AFS get released. I mean we are seeing what happened in the past and I think most of what will be released there we already know.

Lock up agreement for me is the biggest event. If it could just come effective before the end of this month we will see a sharp rise in the share price as Steinhoff will continue to operate for atleast 3 more years.

HJ 2019 will be a make or break AFS in my opinion as we will be able to see where Steinhoff is heading and if they will be able to cover their finance cost.

Then the Analyst day will also be a good one as they will have to show a plan aka budget for the next five years. Might be a big one for the share price.

Interesting to see tho is that finacial institutions have uped their investments in Steinhoff over the last month.

All in all I think we have some good releases coming up which can up the share price significantly. Lets all cross our fingers. Might top up some shares this week.

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#8437 LarryK

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Posted 08 June 2019 - 01:21 AM

Looks like we’re waiting a little longer then burnt...

Did everyone run out of data or airtime on here😂

I’m sure I’ll get criticized for this but I’m going to hold onto this stock for a while. If they have an audited 2018 AFS, half decent results h1 2019 and can quantify and defend the legal cases, snh should see a good recovery.
Perkor showed strong growth in an economy that’s f@cked. Pepco Europe is doing well and mf should see good recovery. Remember mf is the largest mattress retailer in the US.
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#8438 Burnt as well

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Posted 07 June 2019 - 04:40 PM

http://www.steinhoff...y, 18 June 2019

1H-19 and AGM dates confirmed
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#8439 Captainfrom82

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Posted 06 June 2019 - 03:48 PM

Hi Captain, 

 

thanks for your response. Ok I understand. Do you think everything will be finalised before 18 June or rather the end of the month?

 

Hmmm.  Is this a case of "Great minds think alike", or "Fools seldom differ" ? 

 

Our messages must have waved at each other as they passed by in cyber-space.

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

 

BTW, I am expecting AFS2018  revenue of around E17123 with reported EBITDA of around E89. 


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#8440 Captainfrom82

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Posted 06 June 2019 - 03:38 PM

So the 18th is coming closer. Managenent looks like they are on track to publish results. Now the question is will they finalise the lock up agreement before that date? If not going concern will once again be a major concern.



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As a follow up regarding the 18th, below are my opinions:  Use, don't use, not a financial advisor in SA, blah blah blah...

 

 

You may be aware that Steinhoff had engaged with the various creditors regarding amendments to the conditions of the previous LUA and CVA2.  

 

 

These negotiations ultimately culminated in Steinhoff launching launched CVA3 on 17 May 2019.  CVA3 amended the long-stop date to 30 June 2019  to allow for the process to be followed in the English Courts. By association, the long-stop date for the LUA was correspondingly amended to this same 30 June 2019.

 

 

Steinhoff is now busy with the entitlement process - there may be a SENS announcing the deadline in this regard.  Further, Steinhoff is currently  working on the reconciliation of the fees owing (Lock-Up Fees, Lock-Up Early Bird Fees and Support Letter Consent Fees).  These fees may be paid immediately or may be capitalised.  This process does not impact any timelines.

 

 

The actual final stage of the restructuring implementation would be expected to begin around 20 days (I think they are speaking of 20 working days) - effectively around 30 June 2019.  Whether this "20 days" has any fat or buffers is unknown.  My experience is that it probably has been extended with some built in safety net - 15days may be doable.  

 

 

Whether Steinhoff releases the AFS2018 on 18 June is now probably irrelevant as it will probably very quickly be overtaken by the 1H19 results. 

 

 

My personal expectations is that they will release an audited AFS2018 on 18 June 2019.  The market will probably see this as to be "outdated".  People will await the 1H19 un-audited results as this will provide :

 

1. A far more updated picture in terms of the Balance Sheet (what is the impact of MF now being treated as investment in an Associate; what is the latest status of impairments, what is the latest equity,  debt and NAV.

2. We will have a better understanding on the sustainable earnings.  We will also be able to get a heads up in terms of the impact of the unbundling, sale of various income producing assets, as well as the turn around strategy at MF, Confo etc.

 

 

It should be a very interesting 6 months coming up.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

 

Ps.  Why is everyone so quiet?  Even DTD who normally has lots to say, is so silent.  Hey DTD, is the mother-in-law visiting and watching your every action?


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