15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

Hi DTD,
 
I'm a bit confused with your numbers. 
 
What is your total Revenue figures for HJ 2019 in €?
What is your total EBITDA figures for HJ 2019 in €?

Total revenue for the 6 months E7050 mil and EBITDA E507 mil.

The figures do not include the following:
Property (I cannot get proper information on whats left after the Kika deal)
Automotive - As it has been sold thought to leave it not sure of the date of sale but if it is to be included then should be very similar to the H1 -2018

[andi222]

For me the EBITDA for FY 2018 is again old news one year old and the share going to take a beating if the figures that Captain
posted come to be true because will show they will not be able to service the debt. Even if it going to be payable in 2021 but
Market not going to like it.

I believe the H1 - 2019 will be the most important figures because will have MF out of the picture.

These are my estimates for H1 - 2019

Business Revenue EBITDA
Pepkor Europe 1986 167
Conforama 1530 68
Other 440 20
PEPKOR SA 2398 216
Greenlit Brands 704 36

Total 7050 507


Remember I am not an accountant so these figures not reliable but Captain, Andi can you comment???

 

Hi DTD,

 

I'm a bit confused with your numbers. 

 

What is your total Revenue figures for HJ 2019 in €?

What is your total EBITDA figures for HJ 2019 in €?

[DayTraderDad]

For me the EBITDA for FY 2018 is again old news one year old and the share going to take a beating if the figures that Captain
posted come to be true because will show they will not be able to service the debt. Even if it going to be payable in 2021 but
Market not going to like it.

I believe the H1 - 2019 will be the most important figures because will have MF out of the picture.

These are my estimates for H1 - 2019

Business Revenue EBITDA
Pepkor Europe 1986 167
Conforama 1530 68
Other 440 20
PEPKOR SA 2398 216
Greenlit Brands 704 36

Total 7050 507


Remember I am not an accountant so these figures not reliable but Captain, Andi can you comment???

[andi222]

Hey Andi222,

 

Yes, I am very conservative. 

 

I don't think that the 9M could be used as the gauge.  Q4 is also traditionally lower than Q1.

 

Some of the other businesses that were sold were included in the 1H figures and would therefore inflate the 9M revenue.  I   also note that there was a significant revenue decline in Confo and Poundland in the second half.  Even MF saw significant decline in Q4.

 

But I am open to the possibility that the E16.6b but have used a deeply conservative value.

 

Yes one month to go.  I wonder what has transpired at today's meeting with the VEB people.

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

 

Hi Captain,

 

yeah true. But the range we sit at is around 16 and 18 billion Euros for 2018. We will see a sharp increase for 2019 I think. 

 

Yeah normally Q1 is strong due to Christmas etc. So I think we will be at the lower end of the prediction.

 

Yeah most important thing before they issue AFS 2018 is to get this CVA/LUA agreement signed before the end of this month. If they don't manage to conclude this on time we will again have no audit opinion. It might even lead to defering the AFS again. Let's just hope this agreement is signed at the end of the month. 

[Captainfrom82]

Hi Captain, 

 

thank you for your estimate. They are quite low :/ If you take Trading Update for 9 months from Steinhoff we already have 12.909 revenue generated. If you take that and calculate the full year you get to 17.212. 

MF was restructured from the 5.10.2018. Thus won't form part in the 2018 AFS. 

 

1 Month to go till we find out. Hope management does not defer results again.

 

Hey Andi222,

 

Yes, I am very conservative. 

 

I don't think that the 9M could be used as the gauge.  Q4 is also traditionally lower than Q1.

 

Some of the other businesses that were sold were included in the 1H figures and would therefore inflate the 9M revenue.  I   also note that there was a significant revenue decline in Confo and Poundland in the second half.  Even MF saw significant decline in Q4.

 

But I am open to the possibility that the E16.6b but have used a deeply conservative value.

 

Yes one month to go.  I wonder what has transpired at today's meeting with the VEB people.

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

[andi222]

Hi Andi222,

 

I think that we need to wait and see the effects of the MF unbundling as it reflects on 1h19 numbers.  There is just too much uncertainty to made an informed estimate.

 

My Estimate for 2018

Revenue E15913 (with upside to E16600)

EBITDA E624

Sustainable EBITDA E647

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

 

Hi Captain, 

 

thank you for your estimate. They are quite low :/ If you take Trading Update for 9 months from Steinhoff we already have 12.909 revenue generated. If you take that and calculate the full year you get to 17.212. 

MF was restructured from the 5.10.2018. Thus won't form part in the 2018 AFS. 

 

1 Month to go till we find out. Hope management does not defer results again.

[Captainfrom82]

Hi Captain, 

 

haha ok rather accurate so I'll wait. We can compare figures in two years time to see who was closest haha. 

 

Hi Andi222,

 

I think that we need to wait and see the effects of the MF unbundling as it reflects on 1h19 numbers.  There is just too much uncertainty to made an informed estimate.

 

My Estimate for 2018

Revenue E15913 (with upside to E16600)

EBITDA E624

Sustainable EBITDA E647

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

For those that want to learn IFRS:

https://www.ifrsbox....econsolidation/

[DayTraderDad]

And just like that the volumes have dried up...so whoever wanted to get in/out has probably done so...for now?

I agree think people now waiting for further news on the CVA!!!

[Dell]

And just like that the volumes have dried up...so whoever wanted to get in/out has probably done so...for now?

[DayTraderDad]

Tonight on business day TV one of the financial advisers said that Steinhoff can be a viable business if restructuring is done. So there might be a little shift starting to happen to positive sentiment instead of negative doom and gloom in the media all the time. It will help the share price to recover.[/size]

Yes just listened to it. One think they keep forgetting is Pepkor Europe growth is outpacing Pepkor SA but they keep on just focus on the SA
business. At least some positive starting to develop and does look like the implementation of the restructure is what everybody is watching.
So hope this will be out of the way by 31 May!!!!

[Milo]

Tonight on business day TV one of the financial advisers said that Steinhoff can be a viable business if restructuring is done. So there might be a little shift starting to happen to positive sentiment instead of negative doom and gloom in the media all the time. It will help the share price to recover.

[DayTraderDad]

Hi Captain, 
 
haha ok rather accurate so I'll wait. We can compare figures in two years time to see who was closest haha.

Haha well that's good PwC with a big team took 1 year to understand the financials!!!

[andi222]

Hey Andi222,

 

You can have the numbers quickly or accurately - those two are mutually exclusive terms.

 

My apologies for the delay - I have been absolutely bogged down with the 2017 AFS.. 

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

 

Hi Captain, 

 

haha ok rather accurate so I'll wait. We can compare figures in two years time to see who was closest haha. 

[DayTraderDad]

Any one has some news has to why Pepkor SA - PPH id down 6.5%???

Could there be a book build coming up SNH selling to the 51%???

https://www.business...ket-for-pepkor/

Highlight:
Tuesday’s weakness — down by as much as 4.6% at one stage — followed reports that the actual trading profit for the six months to end-March might have fallen by up to 4% or increased by up to 6.7%. This is at the low end of market expectations and means the share price was on a rather demanding rating. And that’s without considering the huge shadow cast by its controlling shareholder Steinhoff, which holds 71% of Pepkor.

[Captainfrom82]

Just wait for the Sealy deal. Watch the boost in revenues then. As mentioned before the EBITDA in 2019 should sit at 1.133 billion. 

 

We will however see a dip in 2018 figures unfortunately. I think the share price might drop again. My forecast that I calculated for 2018 I get an EBITDA of 750 million. People will come up with the same story that business is not profitable with the large debt burden. . . But these okes don't look into what management has achieved thus far. As soon as we see the HJ 2019 figures we will see a sustainable increase in the share price. 

 

So keep strong guys. 

 

PS. Captain, I'm still waiting for your EBITDA predictions.

 

Hey Andi222,

 

You can have the numbers quickly or accurately - those two are mutually exclusive terms.

 

My apologies for the delay - I have been absolutely bogged down with the 2017 AFS.. 

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

Any one has some news has to why Pepkor SA - PPH id down 6.5%???

Could there be a book build coming up SNH selling to the 51%???

[DayTraderDad]

Hi Captain,

Many thanks I agree about the NAV but you put me in the correct path:

According to SNH presentation on Mattress Firm the debt is with Stripes US Holdings Inc then a series of holding companies eventually Mattress Holding Company Own Mattress Firm Inc.

The balance sheet is for Mattress Firm INC so that follows why the debt is not there.

Regards,
DTD

More clarity:

From the disclaimer of the presentation:

These materials (the “Mattress Firm Materials”) have been prepared by Mattress Firm Holding Corp. (“MFRM”)

Edited by DayTraderDad, 14 May 2019 - 03:27 PM.

[DayTraderDad]

Hi DTD,
 
The financials appear to be related to the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy that Steinhoff underwent last year.
 
There is no relationship to the historical price paid per share or the historical number of shares in issue.  You cannot go to a private company and assign a NAV per share or number of shares in issue.  It is pointless.  You can however use the NAV or total equity to value the business.
 
Regarding the mystery of the dissapearing debt, I suspect that this is one of the MF Holding companies financials and not the Group.  They probably have the debt housed separately In the same way that for example the books of any of Steinhoff's subsidiaries does not reflect the Group status. 
 
I doubt if this document materially affects the Steinhoff strategy or financial position. 
 
 
But hey, I could be wrong!
 
Disclaimer: Everything above in my opinion and does not constitute investment advice blah blah blah.
 
Regards
Captainfrom82

Hi Captain,

Many thanks I agree about the NAV but you put me in the correct path:

According to SNH presentation on Mattress Firm the debt is with Stripes US Holdings Inc then a series of holding companies eventually Mattress Holding Company Own Mattress Firm Inc.

The balance sheet is for Mattress Firm INC so that follows why the debt is not there.

Regards,
DTD

[Captainfrom82]

Hi Captain,

That is the last reliable information I could find about MF because since SNH bought it I cannot find anything.
One can estimate by dividing the $2400 by the $64 that SNH paid and the shares are 37 mil so very little difference.
I agree we don't know exactly what they doing but the above is just a estimate to compare the NAV to that period.

Exactly where did the debt go too??? I find this all very confusing but the balance sheet was given to the court so would SNH lie to them??

This is exactly the problem with SNH there is very little news and information is gathered all over yet management says nothing so causing lots
of guessing and agree with you there is a high risk people comment without having the full picture and does more damage than good.

That amount of money simply cannot disappear it has to be somewhere.

Regards,
DTD

 

Hi DTD,

 

The financials appear to be related to the Chapter 11 Bankruptcy that Steinhoff underwent last year.

 

There is no relationship to the historical price paid per share or the historical number of shares in issue.  You cannot go to a private company and assign a NAV per share or number of shares in issue.  It is pointless.  You can however use the NAV or total equity to value the business.

 

Regarding the mystery of the dissapearing debt, I suspect that this is one of the MF Holding companies financials and not the Group.  They probably have the debt housed separately In the same way that for example the books of any of Steinhoff's subsidiaries does not reflect the Group status. 

 

I doubt if this document materially affects the Steinhoff strategy or financial position. 

 

 

But hey, I could be wrong!

 

Disclaimer: Everything above in my opinion and does not constitute investment advice blah blah blah.

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

Edited by Captainfrom82, 14 May 2019 - 02:27 PM.