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#9041 Investment novice

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 10:17 AM

They done it for quite a few investments if my memory serves me correctly....Supergroup comes to mind and that made them good money after it recovered. But lost on some donkey ones...Abil?? Aeg??

AG made money on all where they were confident based on their analysis. AG are successful because they get into a businesses operations, understand strategy and cashflow- not only look at financials and forecasts. I work in a top 40 listed company of which AG have a large chunk, and have increased their investment- having an AGH shareholder comes with lots of admin and face time. apart from understanding risk, one of their investment requirements is business sustainability? I am not at all assuming that they love SNH in that case they would have bought up 15%. but they have a position which if anyone has information on- please share.

also with the current fiasco they would not be able to justify a massive investment- this is more than a hedge or a gamble-

does anyone have any recent reputable analyst positions. SNH is still a hold


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#9042 Investment novice

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 10:17 AM

They done it for quite a few investments if my memory serves me correctly....Supergroup comes to mind and that made them good money after it recovered. But lost on some donkey ones...Abil?? Aeg??

AG made money on all where they were confident based on their analysis. AG are successful because they get into a businesses operations, understand strategy and cashflow- not only look at financials and forecasts. I work in a top 40 listed company of which AG have a large chunk, and have increased their investment- having an AGH shareholder comes with lots of admin and face time. apart from understanding risk, one of their investment requirements is business sustainability? I am not at all assuming that they love SNH in that case they would have bought up 15%. but they have a position which if anyone has information on- please share.

also with the current fiasco they would not be able to justify a massive investment- this is more than a hedge or a gamble-

does anyone have any recent reputable analyst positions. SNH is still a hold


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#9043 Polly

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 10:07 AM

that's a plausible scenario- however they have governance and investment controls. not AG money but investors funds and therefore cannot gamble R1 even- even if a sure thing if not backed by an analysis and sound reasoning that can be defended

They done it for quite a few investments if my memory serves me correctly....Supergroup comes to mind and that made them good money after it recovered. But lost on some donkey ones...Abil?? Aeg??


Edited by Polly, 09 May 2018 - 10:08 AM.

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#9044 Investment novice

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 10:05 AM

IN let me use arbitrary figures by way of an example how the big boys play this..

 

Assume AG has 1000000 shares in at R80.00    = R80000000 invested before the crash

now trading at R2.00

 

Pays them to take a big risk

 

Buy another 1000000 @R2.00                           = R2000000

 

they probably wrote off the R80m....whats another R2m  to reduce risk even it that R2m goes to zero. They just of the opinion that the R2m is good risk reward...Not investing because they see it as a recovery...

that's a plausible scenario- however they have governance and investment controls. not AG money but investors funds and therefore cannot gamble R1 even- even if a sure thing if not backed by an analysis and sound reasoning that can be defended


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#9045 Polly

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 09:31 AM

a lekkah afternoon braai also requires charcoal and fire.

 

time will tell....

 

"Steinhoff accounting boggles the mind....."

this is an interesting piece of journalism that points to the accounting irregularity of revaluation of shares that was previously valued at cost. the journalism finds some obscure ..or rather lets be kind....lets known investment analyst to comment on the validity of the transaction. why not seek the best in the industry to give you guidance. what does the head of Allan Gray investments think of this. The reality is that this massive transaction will be evaluated and repriced at maybe a lesser value but not zero and surely not R20billion.

this is legitimate corporate practice and had to be signed off by the board , Christo wiese; anumber of legal and banking experts; the FSB , JSEl Frankfurt etc.

is the entire world gullible...surely only the sheep that do not question the integrity of the information whether a beleaguered past shareholder or any current reader.

 

all I ask for is balanced informative journalism to give solice to past shareholders....sure I want to make a killing here too...lets get the truth, lets interrogate the information and if the truth is worse and burns Steinhoff then that's important too. but if there is more to meet the eye and the only objective is to sink the price so that the cannibals can get in cheap now...well then its important for us to also jump on the band wagon...let not your investment decisions be based on ignorance of lack of knowledge or fear...sure we don't know the facts---lets find out and interrogate and when we have more information at least we can then start to invest wisely....I am still waiting on more confirmation on the shareholder register...interestingly Citibank had been a buyer of debt were you aware and they now a buyer of shares...why would they play both sides of the fence...??could it be that they would support debt restructuring and settle on the revised terms, interest rates, equity and increased share valuation subsequently.....I a mere romantic dreaming about castles in the sky

 

IN let me use arbitrary figures by way of an example how the big boys play this..

 

Assume AG has 1000000 shares in at R80.00    = R80000000 invested before the crash

now trading at R2.00

 

Pays them to take a big risk

 

Buy another 1000000 @R2.00                           = R2000000

 

they probably wrote off the R80m....whats another R2m  to reduce risk even it that R2m goes to zero. They just of the opinion that the R2m is good risk reward...Not investing because they see it as a recovery...


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#9046 Investment novice

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 08:56 AM

Burn, burn, burned...

 

tesla.png

a lekkah afternoon braai also requires charcoal and fire.

 

time will tell....

 

"Steinhoff accounting boggles the mind....."

this is an interesting piece of journalism that points to the accounting irregularity of revaluation of shares that was previously valued at cost. the journalism finds some obscure ..or rather lets be kind....lets known investment analyst to comment on the validity of the transaction. why not seek the best in the industry to give you guidance. what does the head of Allan Gray investments think of this. The reality is that this massive transaction will be evaluated and repriced at maybe a lesser value but not zero and surely not R20billion.

this is legitimate corporate practice and had to be signed off by the board , Christo wiese; anumber of legal and banking experts; the FSB , JSEl Frankfurt etc.

is the entire world gullible...surely only the sheep that do not question the integrity of the information whether a beleaguered past shareholder or any current reader.

 

all I ask for is balanced informative journalism to give solice to past shareholders....sure I want to make a killing here too...lets get the truth, lets interrogate the information and if the truth is worse and burns Steinhoff then that's important too. but if there is more to meet the eye and the only objective is to sink the price so that the cannibals can get in cheap now...well then its important for us to also jump on the band wagon...let not your investment decisions be based on ignorance of lack of knowledge or fear...sure we don't know the facts---lets find out and interrogate and when we have more information at least we can then start to invest wisely....I am still waiting on more confirmation on the shareholder register...interestingly Citibank had been a buyer of debt were you aware and they now a buyer of shares...why would they play both sides of the fence...??could it be that they would support debt restructuring and settle on the revised terms, interest rates, equity and increased share valuation subsequently.....I a mere romantic dreaming about castles in the sky


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#9047 Snippit

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 08:40 PM

Burn, burn, burned...

 

tesla.png


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#9048 Investment novice

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 06:04 PM

Hehehheheh.

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#9049 Procrastinator

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 04:56 PM

I totally agree...It's very frustrating, but bad news just sells more newspapers than good news...something to be wary of...


Indeed, we must be wary of the negative dastardly press core !

Pity about the massive fraud perpetrated by Steinhoff senior staff, the resultant 95% collapse in value of the company and the almost 160 Billion rand debt pile to be serviced.
Lots of good news to report.
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Where did those damn 10 baggers go?

#9050 Dell

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 03:18 PM

I totally agree...It's very frustrating, but bad news just sells more newspapers than good news...something to be wary of...


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#9051 Investment novice

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 03:05 PM

Just seen the trading uodate fo tempur sealy. Their margins in excess of 40 %. This might be the reason their relationship with Steinhoff ended. SNH better able to extract effieciencies with the integrated approach. The downsizing and structural changes are positive.
Again my question. Should journalists not
Adequately investigate and report on both positivr and negative.


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#9052 Investment novice

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 10:25 AM

hi, has anyone reviewed the end of April shareholding to confirm movements and interest?


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Posted 08 May 2018 - 10:24 AM

hi, has anyone reviewed the end of April shareholding to confirm movements and interest?


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#9054 Investment novice

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 03:34 PM

Polly thats good advice. I have cash accumulated for modeate and low risk an will invest fom there when certain levels are breached. I have liquadated my high isk and pumping at intervals into snh as we dont know where it will go. I will alo keep 100k fo a sudden buy if there is total collapse an sale at depseration at 30 cents...this ia part of the high risk....

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#9055 Polly

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 01:51 PM

lets look at a scenario analysis with given and assumed information- as you are quite right - we don't have all the facts

 

1. worse case- suspension- lots of shareholding, no recovery with a  stripped asset base- we will only have some winners VC and all others are losers- no legal liability for a bankrupt entity. I take this as a probable scenario but expect that there Is more money to be made with restructured debt, cheap equity and recovery.

 

2.  scenario 2- restructured debt, cheap equity and   legal settlement-  no dividends for 4 to 5 years- share price recovers to r7 following restructure. according to wiese we may have debt restructure; listing of SNH property portfolio and a HEAP of STAR assets....

 

3 scenario 3 - PWC report discloses all the holes- fantastic as we are at either scenario 1 or 2 or probably 3- scenario - market over- reaction- share R12 to R14 by December and climbing steadily to R30 end 2019 with settlement of claims

 

 

I have therefore a range from  R0 to R30 with a mid price at R7.00 to R12.00 R7 by end May if we have debt restructuring which I doubt as we need financials- but may get at least a grace period to ensure covenants are not breeched.

 

The share is currently at R1.90 with doomsday priced in...a penny stock.

 

In that case, as i waited for break of R5.00 to go short, and as Bullhunter said best time to buy is when prices are rising, i would if i were you, go in on break of R5.00 to upside and add more on break of R10.00. Otherwise you playing a very high risk game.

However seeing you already bought much higher and added lower, its time to pray and hope with sleepless nights.


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#9056 Investment novice

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 01:40 PM

This s great news..and stale news..operational amd business enhancements. Downsizing and reviewing exhorbitant lease agreements, new store opening, new product lines an posturing to take advantage of cross business polination....as long as managemet are aggressively foxussed on survival...efficienxy and margin imprvement...this is good

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#9057 Investment novice

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 01:34 PM

lets look at a scenario analysis with given and assumed information- as you are quite right - we don't have all the facts

 

1. worse case- suspension- lots of shareholding, no recovery with a  stripped asset base- we will only have some winners VC and all others are losers- no legal liability for a bankrupt entity. I take this as a probable scenario but expect that there Is more money to be made with restructured debt, cheap equity and recovery.

 

2.  scenario 2- restructured debt, cheap equity and   legal settlement-  no dividends for 4 to 5 years- share price recovers to r7 following restructure. according to wiese we may have debt restructure; listing of SNH property portfolio and a HEAP of STAR assets....

 

3 scenario 3 - PWC report discloses all the holes- fantastic as we are at either scenario 1 or 2 or probably 3- scenario - market over- reaction- share R12 to R14 by December and climbing steadily to R30 end 2019 with settlement of claims

 

 

I have therefore a range from  R0 to R30 with a mid price at R7.00 to R12.00 R7 by end May if we have debt restructuring which I doubt as we need financials- but may get at least a grace period to ensure covenants are not breeched.

 

The share is currently at R1.90 with doomsday priced in...a penny stock.

 

 

 

 


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#9058 Shi

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 01:27 PM

https://www.moneyweb...is-overstuffed/

 

 

Because of its accumulation of so many surplus stores, Mattress Firm is now in the process of closing almost 300 of them. Wedbush analyst Seth Basham reckons at least twice that number might be axed this year and that Steinhoff could end up selling Mattress Firm, as a whole or in parts. But who would want to buy it and at what price? “I don’t think Mattress Firm is worth what Steinhoff paid,” says Shah.


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#9059 Polly

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 12:53 PM

Look In with little info we have and thats coming out in drips and drabs, no one can make any concrete conclusion as to where this is heading. You could be right or i could be hopelessly wrong.  I see you have done a lot of homework on this so kudos to you for that. But to go big , you can make big or lose big. Maybe you happy to take that risk.

 

Give me 3 levels of price you see this going into the future?


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#9060 Investment novice

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 12:29 PM

Polly- I wanted to interrogate your statement - "These scenarios normally most of the time finish in a total and complete disaster.( ABIL comes to mind recently...."

using information readily available in the market:

 

Investors might remember that shortly after African Bank was placed under curatorship, we stated that we believe that the loss of capital would not be permanent. To that point, our latest Quarterly Newsletter (4Q2016) goes into more detail to demonstrate that the full capital loss has been recovered fully – and that was prior to the African Bank Preference Shares being re-priced in the market from the suspended R7.80 (Element’s carrying value while the shares were suspended) to R33.50 (closing price as at 9 February 2017), an increase of 429%!

http://www.elementim...-news/read/443/

 

I do feel for those that have lost in the Steinhoff debarcle:

 

but surely there is an opportunity for value recovery, ...it may be partially realistic...but that opportunity is there.

 

all I am trying to do with these posts is to try to get constructive discussions on scenarios...even if we are staring into the abyss with a hopeless situation...I am completely of the belief that business can survive from cash flow and SNH will have 2  to 3 years of pain if not 2 weeks to  8 months for the finalisation of restructure.

alixpartners are fantastic at what they do---some of the boards actions after the effect have been merritoriuos- perhaps this is why we have institutional buyers now in the market.....swim with the sharks and sleep with the titanic- makes for a great movie- and a great case study for me

 


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