15225 replies to this topic

[andi222]

Overall Markets are down. No SENS issued that audited AFS 2017 will be deferred again. Holding thumbs something positive comes up. 

[Investment novice]

Sudden drop is bad news on the way???

Low volume... Can't make inferences from this

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[DayTraderDad]

Sudden drop is bad news on the way???

[Bubble]

How much have they added in the past 6 months and past year.

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I only started tracking/saving data from Nov. To get more detail, I need to register an account and pay a monthly fee, which I am not going to do.

 

Titan had 137 558 263 on 30 Nov, and now have 246 108 350(26 Apr). Almost doubled.

[DayTraderDad]

No major changes.
SSBTC Client OMNI added 1 436 580, to get them to a total of 65 368 629
BUS VEN INVEST NO 1499 reduced 249 000 to a total of 42 480 864
JPMC-VANGUARD BBH reduced 864 880 to a total of 33 566 514

Thank you!!

[Bubble]

Thanks for the info did you get the list of shareholders? Interested to see what changed!

No major changes.

SSBTC Client OMNI added 1 436 580, to get them to a total of 65 368 629

BUS VEN INVEST NO 1499 reduced 249 000 to a total of 42 480 864

JPMC-VANGUARD BBH reduced 864 880 to a total of 33 566 514

[DayTraderDad]

Titan Premier Investment (Wiese & Co) did not add anymore shares in April. Still standing at 246108350.

Thanks for the info did you get the list of shareholders? Interested to see what changed!

[Investment novice]

Titan Premier Investment (Wiese & Co) did not add anymore shares in April. Still standing at 246108350.

How much have they added in the past 6 months and past year.

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[Bubble]

Titan Premier Investment (Wiese & Co) did not add anymore shares in April. Still standing at 246108350.

[Investment novice]

I should point out that the excellent DTD has since pointed out that the E9b 2017 G & I is being impaired to E7.2b This is a different take to what I had posted after consulting CA colleagues in the US.

Both DTD as well as the US guys make valid points.

I guess that the real picture will emerge in around 6 weeks when the FY18 financials are released.

Regards
Captainfrom82

Thanks for the posts.

The 2017 and 2018 financials publication will have a mixed reaction. I think though final publication would be market positive. I am keen to see h1 2019 which is not much spoken of compared to 2018 including the restructuring of matress firm.
A one pager on the companies strategy to chase after culprits, insurers, asso iated companies, etc etc... And a sense of what would also be potentially recoverable would also be interesting. Further transparency would be great but this may not be possibledue to criminal proceedings being instituted?...
This share is range bound up or down... And won't be surprised on any moves... Expect a pump these two days... And a dump... That's the usual trend here...

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[Captainfrom82]

Hi Andi222,

 

My thoughts (my opinion) is slightly different.

 

Steinhoff tests annually for Goodwill.  For the results released on 29 June 2018, the tests were performed at 30 June 2015(being the previous FYE date), 30 Sept 2016 and 30 Sept 2017. 

 

This means that  FY17 is the first set of financial results which included MF and which could be impaired.

 

So this is not "another 1.8 billion write off".  This was reflected in the (estimated) unaudited FY2017 Balance Sheet provided on 29 June 2018, and had the impact of therefore reducing the MF Goodwill brought forward onto the 1H18 financials.

 

In other words, the E1.8b is already embedded and reflected in the 1H18 MF Goodwill.

 

I expect to see similar and equally draconian impairments  for Confo on the FY18 (and even the FY19) financials.  Of course if by the FY19 financials Confo is not accounted for by consolidation, but rather through equity accounting, this will have a material impact on the Balance Sheet for both assets as well as liabilities.

 

In fact, Steinoff will be a totally different company from its Balance perspective after the restructuring even if it holds interest in MF, Confo, Greenlit, etc.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

 

I should point out that the excellent DTD has since pointed out that the E9b 2017 G & I is being impaired to E7.2b  This is a different take to what I had posted after consulting CA colleagues in the US. 

 

Both DTD as well as the US guys make valid points.

 

I guess that the real picture will emerge in around 6 weeks when the FY18 financials are released.

 

Regards

Captainfrom82

[DayTraderDad]

Good post. We should tolerate all views and keep to facts.

I personally did not expect another 1.8 billion write off. However thats the past, I mean 2017. I'm looking forward and I have posted my view why I think Steinhoff will survive and will make profits in near future.

The audited numbers for 2017 will however give us a good base/fundament for the future. Something to build on. I also think they will provide a very very detailed report where they stand with the restructuring.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday. It will be a big step for the company and Shareholders to have audited AFS for 2017 and previous years. Big institutional investers will be allowed to analys Steinhoff.


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Yes great post for me is so sad that so much time spent with insults that good share information discussion is ignored.
I am too sorry that this got to such a low level but I was offended being called a fraud for being a day trader.
People need to understand even though I have a considerable long term position in SNH and am confident on its future I am also realistic
that there are times the share will fall so I find that is nothing wrong to short while still having a long term position.
But calling me a fraud and con because people think I am trying to influence trades is totally stupid because this chatroom certainly does not influence
the market!!
Anyway I hope all that is past and we now can have interesting discussion!!

[DayTraderDad]

One issue though, I get the feeling they will publish after 5pm when JSE is closed. And due to elections, 8th May is a holiday so any major movement will not benefit us too much unless a new base is established in Europe. Of course if it tanks, at least won’t hurt us immediately

I agree think one will need sometime to digest the results but Frankfurt will maybe tell a different story because Tradegate is open until 2200h.

[Burnt as well]

STEINHOFF RISK ASSESSMENT

As discussed, it is prudent to consider and evaluate the Steinhoff risk going forward.

The following is the risks that Steinhoff management has identified. Their risk mitigation comments (general statements ) are also reflected. Please consider the following over the three years from July 2018 to around December 2021 (being a common maturity date for all loans three years from restructuring date).

Instructions:Rate each assessment on a scale of 0% to 100%, based on:

• Probability: What is the likelihood of this particular risk manifesting. 0% means the risk is not going to occur, and 100% meaning that the risk will definitely occur.
• Impact: What is the consequence (the likely fallout or degree of devastation) if this particular risk does occur. 0% meaning the risk event will have no impact, and 100% meaning that the risk will see Steinhoff not survive and subsequently collapse.

Risk

Mitigation: Comments & Steinhoff's risk plans

1
Financial Creditor claims (default to lenders)
Reach agreement with CVA


2
Litigation Claims & Disputes
Claims disputed by Steinhoff + significant period of time to resolve. Seifert claims to be settled.


3
Liquidity
Each CGU obtain working capital if CVA signed


4
Reputation and brand risk
Transparent approach & keep stakeholders informed


5
Leadership / talent management risk
Restructuring plan will allow staff to be attracted and retained


6
Regulatory/legislative compliance risk
Expert Advice & resources sought


7
Exchange rate/
Group policy to hedge forward periods (excludes translation of assets & liabilities)


8
Interest rate fluctuations risk
Long term: fixed & variable funding. Short term cost of borrowing materially higher


9
Investment in infrastructure
Long Term - Capital funding plan. Short term - Funding constrained








The above is in a table format. I really hope it comes through in a readable format.

This format brings back memories of my board 2 CA exam many years ago 😬

[Burnt as well]

STEINHOFF RISK ASSESSMENT

As discussed, it is prudent to consider and evaluate the Steinhoff risk going forward.

The following is the risks that Steinhoff management has identified. Their risk mitigation comments (general statements ) are also reflected. Please consider the following over the three years from July 2018 to around December 2021 (being a common maturity date for all loans three years from restructuring date).

Instructions:Rate each assessment on a scale of 0% to 100%, based on:

• Probability: What is the likelihood of this particular risk manifesting. 0% means the risk is not going to occur, and 100% meaning that the risk will definitely occur.
• Impact: What is the consequence (the likely fallout or degree of devastation) if this particular risk does occur. 0% meaning the risk event will have no impact, and 100% meaning that the risk will see Steinhoff not survive and subsequently collapse.

Risk

Mitigation: Comments & Steinhoff's risk plans

1
Financial Creditor claims (default to lenders)
Reach agreement with CVA


2
Litigation Claims & Disputes
Claims disputed by Steinhoff + significant period of time to resolve. Seifert claims to be settled.


3
Liquidity
Each CGU obtain working capital if CVA signed


4
Reputation and brand risk
Transparent approach & keep stakeholders informed


5
Leadership / talent management risk
Restructuring plan will allow staff to be attracted and retained


6
Regulatory/legislative compliance risk
Expert Advice & resources sought


7
Exchange rate/
Group policy to hedge forward periods (excludes translation of assets & liabilities)


8
Interest rate fluctuations risk
Long term: fixed & variable funding. Short term cost of borrowing materially higher


9
Investment in infrastructure
Long Term - Capital funding plan. Short term - Funding constrained








The above is in a table format. I really hope it comes through in a readable format.

This format brings back memories of my board 2 CA exam many years ago 😬

[Captainfrom82]

Good post. We should tolerate all views and keep to facts.

I personally did not expect another 1.8 billion write off. However thats the past, I mean 2017. I'm looking forward and I have posted my view why I think Steinhoff will survive and will make profits in near future.

The audited numbers for 2017 will however give us a good base/fundament for the future. Something to build on. I also think they will provide a very very detailed report where they stand with the restructuring.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday. It will be a big step for the company and Shareholders to have audited AFS for 2017 and previous years. Big institutional investers will be allowed to analys Steinhoff.


Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

 

Hi Andi222,

 

My thoughts (my opinion) is slightly different.

 

Steinhoff tests annually for Goodwill.  For the results released on 29 June 2018, the tests were performed at 30 June 2015(being the previous FYE date), 30 Sept 2016 and 30 Sept 2017. 

 

This means that  FY17 is the first set of financial results which included MF and which could be impaired.

 

So this is not "another 1.8 billion write off".  This was reflected in the (estimated) unaudited FY2017 Balance Sheet provided on 29 June 2018, and had the impact of therefore reducing the MF Goodwill brought forward onto the 1H18 financials.

 

In other words, the E1.8b is already embedded and reflected in the 1H18 MF Goodwill.

 

I expect to see similar and equally draconian impairments  for Confo on the FY18 (and even the FY19) financials.  Of course if by the FY19 financials Confo is not accounted for by consolidation, but rather through equity accounting, this will have a material impact on the Balance Sheet for both assets as well as liabilities.

 

In fact, Steinoff will be a totally different company from its Balance perspective after the restructuring even if it holds interest in MF, Confo, Greenlit, etc.

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82

[Captainfrom82]

STEINHOFF RISK ASSESSMENT

 

As discussed, it is prudent to consider and evaluate the Steinhoff risk going forward.

 

The following is the risks that Steinhoff management has identified.  Their risk mitigation comments  (general statements ) are also reflected.  Please consider the following over the three years from July 2018 to around December 2021 (being a common maturity date for all loans three years from restructuring date).

 

Instructions:Rate each assessment on a scale of 0% to 100%, based on:

 

1. Probability: What is the likelihood of this particular risk manifesting.   0% means the risk is not going to occur, and 100% meaning that the risk will definitely occur.
2. Impact: What is the consequence (the likely fallout or degree of devastation)  if this particular risk does occur.   0% meaning the risk event will have no impact, and 100% meaning that the risk will see Steinhoff not survive and subsequently collapse.

 

 Risk

 Mitigation: Comments & Steinhoff's risk plans

 

                1

Financial Creditor claims (default to lenders)

 Reach agreement with CVA

 

 

                2

  Litigation Claims & Disputes

 Claims disputed by Steinhoff + significant period of time to resolve.  Seifert claims to be settled.

 

 

                3

 Liquidity

 Each CGU obtain working capital if CVA signed

 

 

                4

 Reputation and brand risk

 Transparent approach & keep stakeholders informed

 

 

                5

 Leadership / talent management risk

 Restructuring plan will allow staff to be attracted and retained

 

 

                6

 Regulatory/legislative compliance risk

 Expert Advice & resources sought

 

 

                7

 Exchange rate/

 Group policy to hedge forward periods (excludes translation of assets & liabilities)

 

 

                8

 Interest rate fluctuations risk

 Long term: fixed & variable funding.  Short term cost of borrowing materially higher

 

 

                9

 Investment in infrastructure

 Long Term - Capital funding plan.  Short term - Funding constrained

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The above is in a table format.  I really hope it comes through in a readable format.

 

[Burnt as well]

Good post. We should tolerate all views and keep to facts.

I personally did not expect another 1.8 billion write off. However thats the past, I mean 2017. I'm looking forward and I have posted my view why I think Steinhoff will survive and will make profits in near future.

The audited numbers for 2017 will however give us a good base/fundament for the future. Something to build on. I also think they will provide a very very detailed report where they stand with the restructuring.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday. It will be a big step for the company and Shareholders to have audited AFS for 2017 and previous years. Big institutional investers will be allowed to analys Steinhoff.


Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

One issue though, I get the feeling they will publish after 5pm when JSE is closed. And due to elections, 8th May is a holiday so any major movement will not benefit us too much unless a new base is established in Europe. Of course if it tanks, at least won’t hurt us immediately

[andi222]

Good post. We should tolerate all views and keep to facts.

I personally did not expect another 1.8 billion write off. However thats the past, I mean 2017. I'm looking forward and I have posted my view why I think Steinhoff will survive and will make profits in near future.

The audited numbers for 2017 will however give us a good base/fundament for the future. Something to build on. I also think they will provide a very very detailed report where they stand with the restructuring.

Fingers crossed for Tuesday. It will be a big step for the company and Shareholders to have audited AFS for 2017 and previous years. Big institutional investers will be allowed to analys Steinhoff.


Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Captainfrom82]

Good day folks,

 

The unsavory events of the past months has spoiled this Chatroom for many people.  I want to apologise for my part in this. 

 

Both sides have resorted to insulting and name calling.  I do not necessarily want to defend what DTD and I did.  Suffice to say, that despite the assertion that we caused this traded-insult war, I can only advise that I acted in retaliation.  I was called a "cake" [whatever that means], an idiot, a suspect character, a [want to be] guru, a person spreading lies, a MAFIA, a Stellenbosch stooge, etc.  It was incessant and did not stop after each post made.

 

I am hopeful that with some members having left this Group to form their own Group, that matters can go back to a more civil atmosphere.  There is now no need for me to form an alternate Group which I was considering.  Thank you to everyone who wrote to me.

 

I repeat my previous comments regarding the need for alternate views.  Opinions and facts posted by anyone needs to be challenged (in a civil manner).  This forms a critical part of investment risk management.  Without this alternate views, I run a serious risk of making errors and then compounding.

 

In fact, opposing views are far more important to me than someone who agrees with me. 

 

Clearly though, the need to substantiate a point with facts and references must be considered critical.

 

Equally important, I urge members not to post conjecture or opinions as fact.  Future events, unless proven otherwise is a matter of opinion or are speculation/conjecture.  Please state as much in the postings.  If you say that the "actual numbers" say some something, this needs a concrete reference.  Otherwise, not matter how likely it is to occur in the future, it is not "actual" but rather at best an estimation, at worst conjecture.

 

Having got that off my chest, I would like to post a number of matters, including an assessment of the Steinhoff risks (including contingent risks that are not yet reflected on the Balance Sheet). 

 

Forward looking risk is such a difficult thing to 1. Assess & understand and; 2. Quantify & measure. 

 

It may be desirable to have a general survey of the 5 top risks is possible (we can use the Steinhoff Risk Register as the basis, and if anyone feels that this excludes a material risk, we can add this on.  Members could then respond on a scale of 1 - 10 of two most important aspects regarding risk, namely the Impact of the risk materializing, and secondly the likelihood of the risk materializing.

 

Separately, I would also like to post on what I would be looking for on the FY17 financials which will hopefully be released on 7 May 2019. I would encourage other members to do the same.

 

I believe that if these exercises are carried out, that we may have a more objective view of whether Steinhoff is an investment worth considering.

 

Thoughts?

 

Best Regards

Captainfrom82