15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

Yesterday's trading day gave the Steinhoff share an interesting price boost in its technical analysis. Although the stock price of the Dutch South African group had already overcome the resistance range at 0.118 / 0.121 euros on Friday, but without confirming the break on the closing price basis. Yesterday things looked different: Steinhoff's share price climbed during the course of the day 0.1239 euros and ended the XETRA trading at 0.1338 euros with 3.43 percent in the plus. The effects of the technical buy-signal on Steinhoff International's MDAX-listed share certificate are evident this morning: Current indications are at 0.127 / 0.128 euros, suggesting further price gains.

Thus, the jump over the resistance range around 0.118 / 0.121 with the core brand at 0.120 euro seems to be stable this time - in contrast to the development on Friday of last week. It remains that the Steinhoff share in this scenario by 0.125 / € 0.127, so at the current level of indications, as well as by 0.133 / € 0.135 on the next chart technical obstacles. Above this zone, Steinhoff's share price continues to focus on the important resistance at 0.140 / 0.143 euros, at which the SDAX stock rebounded to 0.1428 euros at the end of February following a recovery.

Meanwhile, the horizontal brands at 0.118 / 0.121 euros have become support for the Steinhoff share. If there were new sales signals on these supports, the signal brands would have to expect further support for the paper at 0.112 / 0.114 euros and at 0.108 / 0.109 euros. A slide below the two support brands pushes lower-lying support zones between 0.102 and 0.104 / 0.105 euros in the trader's sights.

[Polly]

Thanks P... In ur view what would it take for Mr Market to not short this PS

 

obviously the contents of audited afs....

[Lionelza1]

Thanks P... In ur view what would it take for Mr Market to not short this PS

[Polly]

daily chart of PS

 

 a1.PNG   390.57KB   2 downloads

 

 

1. bullish looking chart.....breaking above my main serrated lilac moving average line

 

2. check the support line at bottom...perfect bounce off support @ 1.73...support moves higher every day because upward sloping..maybe 1c per day

 

3. my stoch turned up nicely from 20...bullish as still legs to go to 80

 

4. Rsi reaching 70 so could become overbought there

 

5. i dont see an cup and handle yet..more a rounded bottom from support. If it need to make a c&h it need to go to +-2.28 and then drop a little to make the handle and then break above 2.28

 

6. as long as it stays above +-1.92 it remains bullish..break 1.92 to downside then back to short!!

 

my tech view only

[LarryK]

Cup and handle formation at end of chart is forming = going up soon. I think financials will cause a spontaneous reaction same as EOH.

Thanks Milo, agreed, looks like a cup and handle could form.
Also hoping for buying the rumor, fomo etc!

[Milo]

1. Polly I appreciate your comments. On all groups. It might not be popular but you stick to your opinion.
2. Dtd - I appreciate your and captains info too. I do however feel you are way to critical of any negative comments on here.
3. Polly has a trading opinion/plan which he has repeatedly mentioned (short from R4.50 go long from R5.00) so he is not just being negative.
4. We need to give everyone the opportunity to share their opinion. Not just the ones that shout loudest. And dtd/captain you are also included in this.
5. Once again, bottom line, the share is at R1,92 and management has consistently moved the goal post. While I am holding for now I am not certain about how long more I want to be financially exposed to this risky share. As a senior executive I respect the new management’s efforts but they have broken trust with the shareholders already due to constant delays and they clearly lack the trust of CW otherwise he would not have initiated legal action.
6. Milo I miss your technical analysis

 

 

Cup and handle formation at end of chart is forming = going up soon. I think financials will cause a spontaneous reaction same as EOH.

[DayTraderDad]

In retail to my knowledge the share price is not really influenced too much by NAV it is influenced by cash flow generated.

[andi222]

A u make some valid points but:

 

1. dont pay too much attention to that book value of .58 euros. Think thats where most here getting it hopelessly wrong. 

In my opinion......nopes i will go to the extent of saying fact and not opinion , that this is historical and lots have since happened since then. First of all that figure includes goodwill and a whole lot of other intangibles mainly associated with Star and MF. In MF its well over 1 billion euros. MF has been operating at a loss and so has confarama. Also no provisioon for contingent liabilities or PWC report writeoffs( we dont know the amount) so futher writeoffs possible. One has to also take into account the writeoff on properties which were overvalued.Once all thse adj have been made , 90% chance that that asset value will be negative.

 

2. cash flow during this financial year is in all likelihood negative. The entire supply chain has been effected as per management with trade terms tightening. The cost of borrowing has risen materially....all this has been expected..Once working capital requirements/shortages start thsi all effects bottom line profits...Forget the 18 billion turnover...Thats not the key at moment but bottom line.

 

3. all those new professionals employed all good and well...But how much per day is this contributing or should i say eating away at bottom line?

 

4. Any tax liabilities in different countries?

 

5. Cost of MF restructure and any future cost of any other subsidiaries restructure?

 

6. Next bet sell off pepkor shares if they can ( will CW allow it) to save situation as last throw of dice...

 

 

 

My whole argument here is some here are looking at nav in their models to place a value. If you bought with same intention only , you will get burnt!!

 

NAV is more likely below 0 c at moment!!!

 

 

However if you bought on turnaround , you may make some money but it will be a slow , painfull journey!!   My 2c..

 

 

Just glad you see the risk of going bust still there....

 

NAV is never a good valuation point. However it gives you some kind of guidance in terms of equity that's left. But you are correct in saying that the value of 58 cents means nothing.

 

Yes, cash flow will be negative but thats why the current share price sits at 12 cents and not 5 euros. However with all the sales they made during the year and the non-payment of interest might even bring a positive cash flow. But here we have to wait and see. 

 

Yes, tax implications will be very difficult due to the different countries tax legislation. However they might be able to reclaim some taxes due to overstating revenues. Which could amount to around roughly (6,5 billion times 25%)= 1,65 billion Euros. I mean they paid taxes on non-existing profits. 

 

The cost of the restructure of MF was nothing compared to their lease expense for all their shops which they where able to close within one month. If the Seally deal actually happens it will boost MF revenue significantly.

 

I personally doubt they will sell any Pepkor shares as this is their core business. And if they do they will keep at least 50%. I think before they sell Pepkor they will IPO some other business first to get some cash.

 

Regarding the finance, yes the interest is locked up for a period of 3 years. So no cash outflow for the next three years and the loans become long term. Ensuring the going concern assumption. And once the company stabilises they will be able to get finance at much cheaper interest. I'm pretty sure that big lenders would love to give a company like Steinhoff interest rates around 3 % after three years when everything has been solved and the books are clean. 

 

Today a good announcement was made. Seems like they are still on track for the 7th May to release audited results for 2017 

 

But as I mentioned before, this is a really risky share and it can go to zero if something stops the Lock-up agreement. 

[DayTraderDad]

Tekkie Town old boys = 1 Steinhoff/Pepkor = 0

https://citizen.co.z...gxJvHbk.twitter

[DayTraderDad]

A im talking about tangible asset value being below 0c....just to unsure we on right wave length...

That's better Polly in fact it was always negative look at the balance sheet of 31 March 2018.

Total equity was 3,793 bil and you remove the goodwill of 6,140 and 3,210 of intangible assets
then NAV excluding goodwill and intangible assets is already way negative so is nothing new!!!

[Polly]

A u make some valid points but:

 

1. dont pay too much attention to that book value of .58 euros. Think thats where most here getting it hopelessly wrong. 

In my opinion......nopes i will go to the extent of saying fact and not opinion , that this is historical and lots have since happened since then. First of all that figure includes goodwill and a whole lot of other intangibles mainly associated with Star and MF. In MF its well over 1 billion euros. MF has been operating at a loss and so has confarama. Also no provisioon for contingent liabilities or PWC report writeoffs( we dont know the amount) so futher writeoffs possible. One has to also take into account the writeoff on properties which were overvalued.Once all thse adj have been made , 90% chance that that asset value will be negative.

 

2. cash flow during this financial year is in all likelihood negative. The entire supply chain has been effected as per management with trade terms tightening. The cost of borrowing has risen materially....all this has been expected..Once working capital requirements/shortages start thsi all effects bottom line profits...Forget the 18 billion turnover...Thats not the key at moment but bottom line.

 

3. all those new professionals employed all good and well...But how much per day is this contributing or should i say eating away at bottom line?

 

4. Any tax liabilities in different countries?

 

5. Cost of MF restructure and any future cost of any other subsidiaries restructure?

 

6. Next bet sell off pepkor shares if they can ( will CW allow it) to save situation as last throw of dice...

 

 

 

My whole argument here is some here are looking at nav in their models to place a value. If you bought with same intention only , you will get burnt!!

 

NAV is more likely below 0 c at moment!!!

 

 

However if you bought on turnaround , you may make some money but it will be a slow , painfull journey!!   My 2c..

 

 

Just glad you see the risk of going bust still there....

A im talking about tangible asset value being below 0c....just to unsure we on right wave length...

[DayTraderDad]

"DayTraderDad" is always trying to push out people that he doesn't like their comments.
"DayTraderDad" mostly post rubbish posts, full of total lies, false and misleading information, yet he doesn't stop trying to prevent other people from posting.
 
No one in this chat room goes as far as him or even close, in trying to prevent other people from posting, even if they see lies, false information or information they don't agree with.

Hahah thanks Tom yes you are spot on I will not allow people to lie or put false stories I will challenge them!!!!

[Lionelza1]

Oooo could we see that R2 2morrow already.... Go baby go.... And then Friday R3! Bwaaahh

[Tom]

"DayTraderDad" is always trying to push out people that he doesn't like their comments.

"DayTraderDad" mostly post rubbish posts, full of total lies, false and misleading information, yet he doesn't stop trying to prevent other people from posting.

 

No one in this chat room goes as far as him or even close, in trying to prevent other people from posting, even if they see lies, false information or information they don't agree with.

Edited by Tom, 29 April 2019 - 05:26 PM.

[DayTraderDad]

forgot to add this A..
 
 
i havent read the lock up creditor agreement but i will assume that interest rate will be locked up over the period of the agreement...ie 10p pa over 3 years....

Typical have not read but have opinion!!!

[Polly]

 

- Finance is secured (Even though they pay 10% interest p.a. I'm sure when the business is stable again they will get better credit terms and they can refinance these loans at much better interest rates.

 

forgot to add this A..

 

 

i havent read the lock up creditor agreement but i will assume that interest rate will be locked up over the period of the agreement...ie 10p pa over 3 years....

[DayTraderDad]

Latest:https://www.dgap.de/...?newsID=1145493

Highlight:

Financial statements
As announced on 5 April 2019, whilst substantial progress has been made towards finalising the Company's financial statements for financial years 2017 and 2018, incorporating the outputs from the PwC forensic investigation have proved to be exceptionally complex and time consuming from both an accounting and audit perspective. In light of this, and despite significant efforts being exerted by all parties, the Company now estimates that it will publish its consolidated financial statements on the following dates:

2017 financial results - 7 May 2019

2018 financial results - 18 June 2019

This revised timetable is also expected to impact the timing of the release of the unaudited 2019 interim results, currently scheduled for 28 June 2019. The Company will update the market with a new date in due course.

Please refer to the full announcement for further information.

[DayTraderDad]

You see my point now NAV is ZERO however impaired was E11 bil PWC report found E6.5 bil issue and Management said they would
say to the market immediately they found a material difference to the fins given in 2018.

Polly cannot count before kept getting all the figures wrong!!!! Like SNH spending 540 mil a day on specialist cost CW bought 2000
share mean time it was 200k.

Rest my case!!!

[DayTraderDad]

Haha andy as predicted Polly always knows best!!!!

[Polly]

Yeah true there is always the risk that something might pop up again. But I'm sure they have looked at every little aspect and that all the experts (Don't even know how many are on board lol) ensured that everything is booked according to laws and regulations. One thing will be sure if Steinhoff makes it through this crisis the books will be the cleanest out there on the JSE in my opinion. They have turned around every single element in that company and management has a plan (Plan was made by experts) which if they follow Steinhoff will be saved. The next two months will be crucial to the share price. However, one should look at this long term. 

They key elements why I'm "still" positive at the moment are:

- Finance is secured (Even though they pay 10% interest p.a. I'm sure when the business is stable again they will get better credit terms and they can refinance these loans at much better interest rates.

- Book value determined by PwC was around 58 cents (Currently trading at 12 cents)

- Generating revenue of 18 billion €

- Stores remained opened and they have expanded 

- No fire sales occurred of investments such as selling Pepkor etc.

- They have a pool of very experienced experts in their team.

- Christo Wiese is buying shares 

- All claims against the company have not made any progress yet. Christo Wiese said he will drop the claim if he sees company goes into the right direction. Shareholder claims where rejected in Netherlands. Steinhoff recently asked everyone to quantify their claims. This will obviously be used to start counterclaims against MJ auditors etc.

 

These are just a few points I think which are critical for survival. However the risk that the company can go bust is still there. Only time will tell.

 

A u make some valid points but:

 

1. dont pay too much attention to that book value of .58 euros. Think thats where most here getting it hopelessly wrong. 

In my opinion......nopes i will go to the extent of saying fact and not opinion , that this is historical and lots have since happened since then. First of all that figure includes goodwill and a whole lot of other intangibles mainly associated with Star and MF. In MF its well over 1 billion euros. MF has been operating at a loss and so has confarama. Also no provisioon for contingent liabilities or PWC report writeoffs( we dont know the amount) so futher writeoffs possible. One has to also take into account the writeoff on properties which were overvalued.Once all thse adj have been made , 90% chance that that asset value will be negative.

 

2. cash flow during this financial year is in all likelihood negative. The entire supply chain has been effected as per management with trade terms tightening. The cost of borrowing has risen materially....all this has been expected..Once working capital requirements/shortages start thsi all effects bottom line profits...Forget the 18 billion turnover...Thats not the key at moment but bottom line.

 

3. all those new professionals employed all good and well...But how much per day is this contributing or should i say eating away at bottom line?

 

4. Any tax liabilities in different countries?

 

5. Cost of MF restructure and any future cost of any other subsidiaries restructure?

 

6. Next bet sell off pepkor shares if they can ( will CW allow it) to save situation as last throw of dice...

 

 

 

My whole argument here is some here are looking at nav in their models to place a value. If you bought with same intention only , you will get burnt!!

 

NAV is more likely below 0 c at moment!!!

 

 

However if you bought on turnaround , you may make some money but it will be a slow , painfull journey!!   My 2c..

 

 

Just glad you see the risk of going bust still there....