15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

Dad, what would your view be if I were to say they selling Unitrans in total? 

That would be good news for me its not core business best sell it the same as the automotive business but remember Unitrass is also part of Greenlit Brands in Aussie.

[leo]

Waiting for that pwc report....licking my greedy little paws

[Bubble]

Leo very good information. My difference to your evaluation is that I believe that SNH Europe going to breakup into MF ( already done it was listed before), PEPCOR EUROPE will be listed or a 49.9% share holding will be sold for debts, Greenlit Brands will be listed there is already talk of a IPO and again 49.9% will be sold, Conforama will also be listed or 49.9% sold (There was talk that Muebles Boom took a considerable position in SNH because they want to increase their footprint from Spain to Europe) and the debt will be distributed to each company. After that I expect SNH will be left with a debt of about EUR2 bil that would be paid/exchanged for shares in PPH to bring SNH holding of PPH to 50.1% and KAP. After all that SNH still has control of all companies but no debt or very little. I cannot see SNH keeping the debt paying 10% interest so it has to sell assets and this way is the only option of keeping the company together. So what would be then the share price of SNH with no or little debt with a EBITDA of EUR900 mil?

Dad, what would your view be if I were to say they selling Unitrans in total? 

[leo]

    Capture.PNG   50.24KB   3 downloads

 

Not looking good, drop in the bonds - 1 Week anlysis

Edited by leo, 30 November 2018 - 09:15 AM.

[Lionelza1]

Lol ok

[leo]

Yea Leo is been pretty flat past couple days.... Have a look at PPC... Seems like a good share to trade... More consistent movements and value up/down

Hell no. Moerse spikes...much worse than eoh

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[leo]

Yea Leo is been pretty flat past couple days.... Have a look at PPC... Seems like a good share to trade... More consistent movements and value up/down

Thanks chief

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[Lionelza1]

Yea Leo is been pretty flat past couple days.... Have a look at PPC... Seems like a good share to trade... More consistent movements and value up/down

[leo]

Just give me some movement...Long or short.

[Lionelza1]

Closed on up 3.62% tradegate...lekka...so that newspaper article said pwc report could be released as soon as this mnth....today being the last day of the mnth... Hhhmmm AND it's a friday .. Could it be a good start to the weekend?... Or a flop?

[DayTraderDad]

 

You kill me...as I do not want to get involved as I've expressed by views on this matter.....but alas:

 

I'm going to make this even simpler, using a market multiple.

 

I used the below site to get a market related multiple for this industry.

 

http://cogentvaluati...ail-1Q-2018.pdf

 

• Median EV/EBITDA Multiple 8.0x
• Normalised EBITDA is Euro340m x 2 (full year) x 8 multiple  =  Eruo5.44B Enterprise value......but here comes the kicker, shares are valued on an Equity basis, i.e., adjusted for net debt/cash...so MINUS Euro10B......is...........wait for it....... worth F'all.

 

Leo very good information. My difference to your evaluation is that I believe that SNH Europe going to breakup into MF ( already done it was listed before), PEPCOR EUROPE will be listed or a 49.9% share holding will be sold for debts, Greenlit Brands will be listed there is already talk of a IPO and again 49.9% will be sold, Conforama will also be listed or 49.9% sold (There was talk that Muebles Boom took a considerable position in SNH because they want to increase their footprint from Spain to Europe) and the debt will be distributed to each company. After that I expect SNH will be left with a debt of about EUR2 bil that would be paid/exchanged for shares in PPH to bring SNH holding of PPH to 50.1% and KAP. After all that SNH still has control of all companies but no debt or very little. I cannot see SNH keeping the debt paying 10% interest so it has to sell assets and this way is the only option of keeping the company together. So what would be then the share price of SNH with no or little debt with a EBITDA of EUR900 mil?

[leo]

 

Haha its difficult to to see properly when drinking green beer but this is how I got to the vision:

 

The business that was dragging earnings was MF and Kika and the UK Retail manufacturing with Conforama being breaking nearly even but action taken to increase its profitability.

 

Quote from H1-2018 financials:

 

"Excluding certain one-off items, the Group managed to achieve a positive EBITDA of €340 million and operating profit of €143 million for the six months under review"

 

Kika made a loss of €37 mil,  UK Retail and Manufacture loss of €31 mil, MF loss of €133 mil the total loss from these operations was: €201 mil.

 

Kika has now been sold, expecting there will be a turnaround or sale of the UK business that making a loss, MF now turned around and should be making a profit of about €50 mil.

 

Corrected profit= €143+€201+€50=€394 for 6 months x 2= €788 for the year. But assuming the restructure was to exchange debt for equity to 49.9% the earning then are only 50.1% at €395 mil and €0.094/share

 

Assuming a growth of 10% per year this is: Rate of exchange R16

 

EURO: 2019: €0.1034,  2020: 0.11374 2021: 0.1251

 

RAND:  2019: R1.65,  2020: R1.82 2021: R2.00

 

With a P:E of 10 in 2021 one can expect the share to be R20.

 

 

You kill me...as I do not want to get involved as I've expressed by views on this matter.....but alas:

 

I'm going to make this even simpler, using a market multiple.

 

I used the below site to get a market related multiple for this industry.

 

http://cogentvaluati...ail-1Q-2018.pdf

 

• Median EV/EBITDA Multiple 8.0x
• Normalised EBITDA is Euro340m x 2 (full year) x 8 multiple  =  Eruo5.44B Enterprise value......but here comes the kicker, shares are valued on an Equity basis, i.e., adjusted for net debt/cash...so MINUS Euro10B......is...........wait for it....... worth F'all.

[Tom]

 

Haha its difficult to to see properly when drinking green beer but this is how I got to the vision:

 

The business that was dragging earnings was MF and Kika and the UK Retail manufacturing with Conforama being breaking nearly even but action taken to increase its profitability.

 

Quote from H1-2018 financials:

 

"Excluding certain one-off items, the Group managed to achieve a positive EBITDA of €340 million and operating profit of €143 million for the six months under review"

 

Kika made a loss of €37 mil,  UK Retail and Manufacture loss of €31 mil, MF loss of €133 mil the total loss from these operations was: €201 mil.

 

Kika has now been sold, expecting there will be a turnaround or sale of the UK business that making a loss, MF now turned around and should be making a profit of about €50 mil.

 

Corrected profit= €143+€201+€50=€394 for 6 months x 2= €788 for the year. But assuming the restructure was to exchange debt for equity to 49.9% the earning then are only 50.1% at €395 mil and €0.094/share

 

Assuming a growth of 10% per year this is: Rate of exchange R16

 

EURO: 2019: €0.1034,  2020: 0.11374 2021: 0.1251

 

RAND:  2019: R1.65,  2020: R1.82 2021: R2.00

 

With a P:E of 10 in 2021 one can expect the share to be R20.

 

Looking at the financials for 2016, and the latest ones, and then comparing it to the share price difference, I get something like the following:

 

The gross debt was 8 b.eu., while the latest is 9beu., that's:     0.8  to  1

The gross assets were 32 b.eu., the latest is 20b.eu., that's:    1.6  to  1

The gross EBITA was 2 b.eu., the latest is 0.8b.eu., that's:      2.5  to  1

Yet the share price averaged 80 now is 2 and , that's:            40.0  to  1

Edited by Tom, 29 November 2018 - 05:04 PM.

[DayTraderDad]

Hahahah.... doubled down on the prescription.

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Haha its difficult to to see properly when drinking green beer but this is how I got to the vision:

 

The business that was dragging earnings was MF and Kika and the UK Retail manufacturing with Conforama being breaking nearly even but action taken to increase its profitability.

 

Quote from H1-2018 financials:

 

"Excluding certain one-off items, the Group managed to achieve a positive EBITDA of €340 million and operating profit of €143 million for the six months under review"

 

Kika made a loss of €37 mil,  UK Retail and Manufacture loss of €31 mil, MF loss of €133 mil the total loss from these operations was: €201 mil.

 

Kika has now been sold, expecting there will be a turnaround or sale of the UK business that making a loss, MF now turned around and should be making a profit of about €50 mil.

 

Corrected profit= €143+€201+€50=€394 for 6 months x 2= €788 for the year. But assuming the restructure was to exchange debt for equity to 49.9% the earning then are only 50.1% at €395 mil and €0.094/share

 

Assuming a growth of 10% per year this is: Rate of exchange R16

 

EURO: 2019: €0.1034,  2020: 0.11374 2021: 0.1251

 

RAND:  2019: R1.65,  2020: R1.82 2021: R2.00

 

With a P:E of 10 in 2021 one can expect the share to be R20.

[leo]

Eish DayTraderDad from R12 now R20?... Nay Bru now u overdosing

Hahahah....😂🤣😂 doubled down on the prescription.

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[Lionelza1]

Eish DayTraderDad from R12 now R20?... Nay Bru now u overdosing

[leo]

Just because info is released, doesn't mean that it's good, or bad for that matter.

[leo]

Hahaha. You going to Weskoppies

[DayTraderDad]

When can we make a verdict about the share price level or direction? Jan, Feb or April or still a few months after?

I guess it's reasonable to say the verdict about the direction (up or down) can be made in January, or is this still early and should rather wait for after the Y18 auditeds end on Jan ?

About the price level a reasonable final verdict would maybe be in April after that there might not be any major change in price ?

My take is the big price correction will be in three stages. The first will be with the release of the audited 2017 financials that according to what management has been saying will be out by 31st Dec 2018 ( or earlier if the results are leaked). The second will be with the results of audited 2018 financials which according to management will be out by 30th January 2019 and the final stage is when the restructure of the debt is done and the completion of the asset sales this looks like will be completed by April 2019. By April the share should be at its highest ( possibly by R20 because expecting FY 2018 earnings to be around R1.80 per share excluding once off costs for the restructuring) and that's when the claim discussions will commence which could well mean that the losses could be much less and should release pressure on the share and start the claim toward the R50 again. To get a share price of R50 with a P:E of say 15 requires earnings of R3.33 (0.20 Euro ) with MF back into profitability with the rest of the business growing well (PEPCO at 40%) this is achiable in the three years because if they swap equity for shares there will be not much debt to pay off. Anyway this is my thoughts! 

[DayTraderDad]

   


so when did they sell??....am or pm?

At the closing auction for the past two days someone puts a big sell order at R1.90