15225 replies to this topic

[Tiekkie]

Pepkor Sens: The deal completed there goes 120 mil PPH shares!!!

APPOINTMENT OF NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
In accordance with paragraphs 3.59(a) and 6.39(a) of the JSE Limited (“JSE”) Listings and
Debt Listings Requirements, respectively, the board of directors of the Company (“ Board”)
wishes to advise shareholders and noteholders that Pieter Erasmus (“Pieter”) has been
appointed as a non-executive director to the Board of Pepkor, with effect from 12 January
2022 (“Effective Date”).
Pieter is a chartered accountant and served as Pepkor group CEO from 2001 to 2017. He
also previously served as a non-executive director of the Company from 1 October 2018 to
29 January 2019.
Pieter will be appointed as a member of the human resources and remuneration committee
and the investment committee, from the Effective Date. His appointment will enhance the
retail industry experience of the Board. The Company confirms that the appointment was
made in accordance with the Board nomination policy.
The Board welcomes Pieter and looks forward to having the benefit of his expertise.

this was the Trevo deal you referring to?

[DayTraderDad]

Pepkor Sens: The deal completed there goes 120 mil PPH shares!!!

 

APPOINTMENT OF NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

In accordance with paragraphs 3.59(a) and 6.39(a) of the JSE Limited (“JSE”) Listings and

Debt Listings Requirements, respectively, the board of directors of the Company (“ Board”)

wishes to advise shareholders and noteholders that Pieter Erasmus (“Pieter”) has been

appointed as a non-executive director to the Board of Pepkor, with effect from 12 January

2022 (“Effective Date”).

Pieter is a chartered accountant and served as Pepkor group CEO from 2001 to 2017. He

also previously served as a non-executive director of the Company from 1 October 2018 to

29 January 2019.

Pieter will be appointed as a member of the human resources and remuneration committee

and the investment committee, from the Effective Date. His appointment will enhance the

retail industry experience of the Board. The Company confirms that the appointment was

made in accordance with the Board nomination policy.

The Board welcomes Pieter and looks forward to having the benefit of his expertise.

[DayTraderDad]

 

Biggest winners on JSE, including one large company that exploded by almost 800% in 2021.

 

... This cleared a key hurdle for the R25 billion settlement with investors to ... last claimants opposing the settlement proposal, from the threat of future legal action and ...

 

https://www.news24.c...n-2021-20220104

 

Indeed excellent performance just hope it will not be the share that dropped the moist in 2022!!!

[Squideye]

Biggest winners on JSE, including one large company that exploded by almost 800% in 2021.

 

... This cleared a key hurdle for the R25 billion settlement with investors to ... last claimants opposing the settlement proposal, from the threat of future legal action and ...

 

https://www.news24.c...n-2021-20220104

[Bubble]

I am extremely careful with the terminology I use on this forum as it could influence someone’s decision making.

 

This place should be a rich source of all the correct information and sadly there isn’t many places like that on the net. My posts are certainly not to question anyones trading and investing strategy, in fact, I also look to buy/sell an instrument at 50%, 61.8% or 78.6%. I posted about this back in February, however, it is naive to assume that every pullback will retrace to these levels. If this was a certainty, everyone would be profitable. 

 

I also posted about how PPC was a good example because the strong trend only allowed for shallow pullbacks to 38.2%. 

Getting back to SNH, I took the pain of not selling at 290 on the initial swing high and only sold at my predetermined price zone around 370 as there was a high probability that this supply zone would cause at least a 100c pullback. I find it impossible to trade every swing and if you did, you run the risk of being left behind at the station.

 

 

Can it retrace to 50%, 61.8% from here……off course it can, but its not guaranteed! Nothing is in the markets, we work with probability and when its stacked in your favor, you can sleep well at night. 

 

If this thing can only break the EUR30c in Frankfort, we are on in my view/hope.

[KP7]

I am extremely careful with the terminology I use on this forum as it could influence someone’s decision making.

 

This place should be a rich source of all the correct information and sadly there isn’t many places like that on the net. My posts are certainly not to question anyones trading and investing strategy, in fact, I also look to buy/sell an instrument at 50%, 61.8% or 78.6%. I posted about this back in February, however, it is naive to assume that every pullback will retrace to these levels. If this was a certainty, everyone would be profitable. 

 

I also posted about how PPC was a good example because the strong trend only allowed for shallow pullbacks to 38.2%. 

Getting back to SNH, I took the pain of not selling at 290 on the initial swing high and only sold at my predetermined price zone around 370 as there was a high probability that this supply zone would cause at least a 100c pullback. I find it impossible to trade every swing and if you did, you run the risk of being left behind at the station.

 

 

Can it retrace to 50%, 61.8% from here……off course it can, but its not guaranteed! Nothing is in the markets, we work with probability and when its stacked in your favor, you can sleep well at night. 

 

 

[DayTraderDad]

I am very happy to hear all various ideas and that is for me the reason I like sharing my thoughts so I can get other peoples ideas.

Let the dice roll and we will see where it will bring.

A 100% rise in price = 50% of fall in a price.

[Midas1]

Happy New Year and well dont to all of you who stuck with SNH....wonder what Poly thinks now

 

[KP7]

For the few that have been following this from a technical perspective as I do, you would know that the market doesn’t give a F*** about your valuation or mine.

 

All the jargon here about “Pump and Dump” (something that is only possible in an illiquid market) and 

“Manipulation” (excuse by traders who lose money or are not on the right side). Numerous posts about how majority shareholding are retail investors and only after an unqualified audit can institutions buy in, so ask yourself who exactly is manipulating the market?

 

I spend numerous hours looking for clues that will give me an edge as a trader to slipstream when the market decides to move. One example was to examine the prior two rallies.

1) From 68c to 293c took 136 Days

2) From 145c to 398c took 59 Days

 

From the above, you could tell which side is in control and what you should expect on the next swing higher. It sure did, ripping higher in 33 days.

 

If my ideal target is to be reached by 20 February 2022 (I always said before April 2022), this price action should continue with shallow pullbacks. I am willing to wait until that target hits and leave the rest to the market on how it decides to get there.

 

 

 

 

[DayTraderDad]

So lets do the calculation of cash flow when PEPCO reaches the Eur 1 bil in 5 years time like the CEO said. Lets assume they manage to get that by 2023.

Sept 2021 financials EBITDA Eur 642 mil giving Eur 155 mil profit that is 23% of EBITDA.

So EUR 1 bil EBITDA will generate Eur 240 mil profit.

Lets assume a dividend given of a 1/3 gives Eur Eur 80 of which at present holding of 78,9% SNH would only get Eur 63 mil.

So lets assume outstanding debt is Eur 4 bil at a interest rate of 4% the interest due is Eur 160 mil from where will the other 97 mil come from? Remember Pepkor holding will be close to 46% after settling GS then how much of it will they sell to pay down some of the debt.

So for those high finance guys how much will a bank lend if my early incoms is Eur 63 mil?

[DayTraderDad]

While missing the biggest jump we've seen, great trading.

You are still acting as if the entire debt burden is due early 2022. A lot can be done with debt renegotiation & due dates, and no company needs to be entirely debt free. The key is to make this debt manageable. It's weird that all of sudden you have no fate in the management to pull that off. Again, why otherwise go through all the trouble of a GS?

Happy New Year all!

I think you missed my message! I fully support management and indeed am very sure they have a plan and SNH in the long run is a good investment the share price at present does match the value in my view.

I was refering to the debt burdon up to the time I expect the restructure will be done. If it goes further to 2023 then add another Eur 900 mil for interest.

I know the debt can be restructured and no company needs to be debt free but it needs to have cash flow to sustain the debt.

So explain to me how is SNH going to generate cash going forward. Pepkor and Pepco are listed and tbe way I see it SNH can only receive dividends or sell shares to generate cash. Do you know other way of getting cash out of those units?

[Ryebread]

Happy new year all!

 

Excuse my limited knowledge as I have only been following this share since early 2021, but I have a couple comments and keen to hear everyone's thoughts. All amounts below in Euros

 

1.  The 9.6bn debt burden and interest at 10% is significant, but in my opinion, not impossible to manage. I speak under correction, but I believe the interest is only payable on maturity of the debt which will be 31 Dec 23 once the GS becomes official and if  extension applied. Key point being less pressure on SNH to have to resort to a distressed sale after GS of the subs to make up the cash flow and instead allows time to focus on building them up. 

 

2. Re DTD's question about where the 4.5bn will come from. The answer depends on how much SNH can actually refi (e.g. SNH has pref share facility, Pepkor has the DMTN program, risk appetite of all willing lenders). Many options available. Part of the cash should come from the expected growth in Pepco and the balance perhaps from issuing new shares or rights issue etc.

 

3. I believe Pepco is targeting 1bn EBITDA in the next few years and hence their aggressiveness regarding expanding into Germany and the rest of Europe. My guess as to why Pepco did not declare a dividend this year was that the benefit of pumping the cash back into the business as capex spend and reduce their own debt to reach this target exceeded the cost of paying down the interest today

 

4. If above points considered and from a fundamentals perspective, the value lies in the free cash flow of the subs after taking into account the debt reduction and refi at lower rates which is not captured in a NAV valuation. And I'm sure Louis, Theo and team have considered this long ago when deciding whether to continue or liquidate the holdco.

 

 

[Tentative]

While missing the biggest jump we've seen, great trading.

You are still acting as if the entire debt burden is due early 2022. A lot can be done with debt renegotiation & due dates, and no company needs to be entirely debt free. The key is to make this debt manageable. It's weird that all of sudden you have no fate in the management to pull that off. Again, why otherwise go through all the trouble of a GS?

Happy New Year all!

Hi Batra for me the only time I see positive value on rights issue is if the proceeds are to acquire new business that can grow over time.

Paying debt with RI keeps the NAV the same because now you pay the debt down but the Net Asset value is diluted by the number of shares.

The truth of the matter SNH has to find Eur 9.6 bil to pay bond holders and Eur 900 mil per year from 2018 for interest which as of today they need to pay 3 years or Eur 2.7 bil. Even if the interest is paid in share (so called per kind) very sure creditors want value and not some pumped up share.

Thats why I jumped out there is no equity at present that justifies the share price due to the future holding after paying out the GS and the Bond holders.

[Batra]

Hi Batra for me the only time I see positive value on rights issue is if the proceeds are to acquire new business that can grow over time.

Paying debt with RI keeps the NAV the same because now you pay the debt down but the Net Asset value is diluted by the number of shares.

The truth of the matter SNH has to find Eur 9.6 bil to pay bond holders and Eur 900 mil per year from 2018 for interest which as of today they need to pay 3 years or Eur 2.7 bil. Even if the interest is paid in share (so called per kind) very sure creditors want value and not some pumped up share.

Thats why I jumped out there is no equity at present that justifies the share price due to the future holding after paying out the GS and the Bond holders.

Clear
Thanks

[DayTraderDad]

We closed the year above R5 I'm happy with that. Happy new year guys

Indeed outstanding!! Happy new year all!!!

[DayTraderDad]

@ DTD
Do you think capital increase through issuance of new shares could be part of the solution going forward?
It has some upsides such as equity increase, credibility coming from the ExeCom, showing willingness to give a future to the company, reassuring creditors through fresh funds injection let alone improving solvency ratio. It is quite a traditional way to deal with companies in disarray and facing an obligation to alleviate indebtedness.
Main risk being dilution and some shareholders who have agreed recently to GS might refuse to subscribe
Appreciate your view
Thanks

Hi Batra for me the only time I see positive value on rights issue is if the proceeds are to acquire new business that  can grow over time.

 

Paying debt with RI keeps the NAV the same because now you pay the debt down but the Net Asset value is diluted by the number of shares.

 

The truth of the matter SNH has to find Eur 9.6 bil to pay bond holders and Eur 900 mil per year from 2018 for interest which as of today they need to pay 3 years or Eur 2.7 bil. Even if the interest is paid in share (so called per kind) very sure creditors want value and not some pumped up share.

 

Thats why I jumped out there is no equity at present that justifies the share price due to the future holding after paying out the GS and the Bond holders.

[Tiekkie]

We closed the year above R5 I'm happy with that. Happy new year guys

[Batra]

@ DTD
Do you think capital increase through issuance of new shares could be part of the solution going forward?
It has some upsides such as equity increase, credibility coming from the ExeCom, showing willingness to give a future to the company, reassuring creditors through fresh funds injection let alone improving solvency ratio. It is quite a traditional way to deal with companies in disarray and facing an obligation to alleviate indebtedness.
Main risk being dilution and some shareholders who have agreed recently to GS might refuse to subscribe
Appreciate your view
Thanks

[DayTraderDad]

Hi DTD. Are you taking lower interest rates when they refinance the debt for the Euro 900 million you are referring to? If refinanced at 3 or 4% it will make a significant difference.

I also think that the debt will be reduced by the MF and Australasian IPOs.

There is also the option of issuing additional shares. Yes it will dilute our ownership but the added stability will help them to focus on growth.

Hi Sleepwa yes in valuations I used 5% because we are on the interest up cycle.

I assumed SNH will keep Eur 4 bil debt possible using the 4 bil preference shares they can issue. With a interest rate of 5% that is a bill of 200 mil per year.(the dividend income will not cover and they will have to sell shares every year to help pay)

If one takes into account a debt of Eur 9,6 bil + interest Eur 3,2 bil (if restructuring is done by June 2022) - Eur 4 bil =
Eur 8,8 bil to be paid.

So from whare is the 8,8 coming from?

If they sell MF and Greenlit will only get max in my view 2,8 bil that leaves 6 bil. Let say after all settlements they manage to retain 1,5 bil cash (i am streching it) so leaves 4,5 bil to be paid by selling part of Pepco and Pepkor.

At todays price Pepco holding is with 4,5 bil and the Pepkor 46% bolding is 2 bil.

So what will be sold?

[Sleepwa123]

Hi DTD. Are you taking lower interest rates when they refinance the debt for the Euro 900 million you are referring to? If refinanced at 3 or 4% it will make a significant difference.

I also think that the debt will be reduced by the MF and Australasian IPOs.

There is also the option of issuing additional shares. Yes it will dilute our ownership but the added stability will help them to focus on growth.