15225 replies to this topic

[DayTraderDad]

Please read this article is very interesting and gives good insight:

https://www.sagefa.c...lding-companies

[DayTraderDad]

Agreed! Some people missed the jump & are now using arguments that should've never seen them enter in the first place.

Steinhoff will need to ensure manageable debt levels without losing too much of its assets (otherwise what would've been the point of the past few years??). That's a challenge but there is every reason that its healthy & growing businesses will help Steinhoff do so.

Also - waiting years for an exit at 100-200%? Sure, everybody should make their own calls but I am surely hoping for more.

If you refering to me that no problem at all. I still trade daily in SNH share but I am in and out. I was just pointing out a few red lights I see.

It is clear to me from some comments that there is a lack of understanding that SNH balance sheet will become a holding company only because all assets are going to be listed and they cannot grab the cash anymore. The only income will be dividends or selling shares.So how much debt can they have if income is limited to dividends?

People are also not working out that there is a big debt and interest that has to be paid.

For example SNH has to pay Eur 900 Mil interest per year so I challange all those that have high expectation to explain how they see how will SNH pay the interest.

The reason I sold out my long term portfolio was because I trade on fundamentals and not on feelings.

I believe in " a bird in the hand is with two in the bush!!" Guys do your sums and goodluck.

[Sleepwa123]

Agree 100%. I personally see a lot of scope here and plan to hold on to as much as possible for the next 5+ years.

[Tentative]

Agreed! Some people missed the jump & are now using arguments that should've never seen them enter in the first place.

Steinhoff will need to ensure manageable debt levels without losing too much of its assets (otherwise what would've been the point of the past few years??). That's a challenge but there is every reason that its healthy & growing businesses will help Steinhoff do so.

Also - waiting years for an exit at 100-200%? Sure, everybody should make their own calls but I am surely hoping for more.

What I read lately on the forum is quite interesting and very informative
My two senses though is some members, rightly so, tend to completely forget about the irrational factors which are also driving shares price up and down for no reason, let alone robots trading.
Ideally speaking, balance sheet, ebitda, NPV, cash position should be amongst others key performance / valuation indicators to look at.
If this was that « simple », companies like Tesla, Moderna and others of same kind which have rocketed douzains of times over last three years would have never reached the (stupidly irrational) valuation they have reached today
On the other side, some mining companies or world wide leading airlines see their market cap being below the value of their assets. All factors which are explaining that are just irrational and meaningless. Still it is.
Coming back to SNH, what DTD is demonstrating is not debatable and damn right. However, this is not any reason why the market will drop SNH. My belief is that there is so much at stake for so many institutional and small shareholders that this share will remain a one to keep in the portfolio for the next 5 years. Surely there is way to make even more money with it in buying frequent return tickets but everyone his / her own strategy here
As I said before, mine is about staying put until a x 12/15 will happen
Just sharing

[Batra]

What I read lately on the forum is quite interesting and very informative
My two senses though is some members, rightly so, tend to completely forget about the irrational factors which are also driving shares price up and down for no reason, let alone robots trading.
Ideally speaking, balance sheet, ebitda, NPV, cash position should be amongst others key performance / valuation indicators to look at.
If this was that « simple », companies like Tesla, Moderna and others of same kind which have rocketed douzains of times over last three years would have never reached the (stupidly irrational) valuation they have reached today
On the other side, some mining companies or world wide leading airlines see their market cap being below the value of their assets. All factors which are explaining that are just irrational and meaningless. Still it is.
Coming back to SNH, what DTD is demonstrating is not debatable and damn right. However, this is not any reason why the market will drop SNH. My belief is that there is so much at stake for so many institutional and small shareholders that this share will remain a one to keep in the portfolio for the next 5 years. Surely there is way to make even more money with it in buying frequent return tickets but everyone his / her own strategy here
As I said before, mine is about staying put until a x 12/15 will happen
Just sharing

I mean a 12/15 vs my average acquisition price, to avoid confusion

[Batra]

What I read lately on the forum is quite interesting and very informative
My two senses though is some members, rightly so, tend to completely forget about the irrational factors which are also driving shares price up and down for no reason, let alone robots trading.
Ideally speaking, balance sheet, ebitda, NPV, cash position should be amongst others key performance / valuation indicators to look at.
If this was that « simple », companies like Tesla, Moderna and others of same kind which have rocketed douzains of times over last three years would have never reached the (stupidly irrational) valuation they have reached today
On the other side, some mining companies or world wide leading airlines see their market cap being below the value of their assets. All factors which are explaining that are just irrational and meaningless. Still it is.
Coming back to SNH, what DTD is demonstrating is not debatable and damn right. However, this is not any reason why the market will drop SNH. My belief is that there is so much at stake for so many institutional and small shareholders that this share will remain a one to keep in the portfolio for the next 5 years. Surely there is way to make even more money with it in buying frequent return tickets but everyone his / her own strategy here
As I said before, mine is about staying put until a x 12/15 will happen
Just sharing

[new john]

If this okie breaks through and closes on 30c, Oooo weeeee

[Lionelza1]

Haha well done so you jumped in did not wait for the 50 cents!

For day trading SNH is a fantastic ATM

And when you start understanding how Mr market works, you will make money not just on snh..

Start pomping it Bru, your R12 is comming sooner than you think 🍻

[Tiekkie]

I believe there is a plan after the GS .Pepco opens up stores in more countries in Europe. PEPKOR opened up over 300 new stores this will show in next year's results. They will all start paying dividends after settlement done. Had to play poor! Let's wait and see

[DeltaHedge]

@Andi it would be good to see your thoughts here

[DeltaHedge]

Indeed each to his own because investments is about collecting information and making a judgement call.

I want to play devils advocate!!!

First question: How sure you are that SNH will be around after 2023?

Second: SNH can issue up to 16 bil share and 4 billion Preference shares. Should they the dilution get to those level how much do you thing your shares will be with.

Third question: SNH now sitting with Eur 5.4 bil negative equity in the latest balance sheet from where will the assets come that will reverse that.

Go to page 49 on the latest Half year results and you will find the following:


Unit Goodwill Trade & Brand Names Total Actual Market value today Change
PEPCO 1576 293 1869 4400 2531
Pepkor 2149 1012 3161 2116 -1045
Greenlit Brands 145 63 208 600 392
MF 50 1850 1800

Total change 3678

So as of today and with generous estimation of IPO for MF and Greenlit the equity will increase by Eur 3,678 bil.

So -5,4 + 3,7 = -1,7 bil the SNH equity in balance sheet will remain negative yet people are prepared to pay R5 for it??

Fourth question: Dividends payout from where will SNH get the cash to pay the dividends? The only income they have is dividends from the units.

Anyway time for green beer!!! I am simply trying to point out some red lights!!!

Then why go through all this effort of securing the GS, why not simply close shop ? Surely LDP and co see something more than just a high level valuation.

Also it depends on valuation method is used to value the business, I see that simply wallstreet is using the free cash flow method and that's the reason they valuing the business at 90 bucks. I do agree that DCF valuations are are load of BS but some companies are bought based on them.

Let's see what happens.

[DayTraderDad]

Good for those taking profits. No shame at getting off at the 1st stop.

Me, I’m in it for the long haul. At a cost avg of R1,30, I could give a rats if it were to drop like all the experts here say it will. Nothing gained nothing lost.

This to me is a ‘leave a legacy’ share. EVENTUALLY In my lifetime SNH will pay dividends, be it in 5 or 15 years. And when that day comes, I’m going to thank myself for not getting off the train at the 1st time seeing R5.

To each his own.

Indeed each to his own because investments is about collecting information and making a judgement call.

 

I want to play devils advocate!!!

 

First question: How sure you are that SNH will be around after 2023?

 

Second: SNH can issue up to 16 bil share and 4 billion Preference shares. Should they the dilution get to those level how much do you thing your shares will be with.

 

Third question: SNH now sitting with Eur 5.4 bil negative equity in the latest balance sheet from where will the assets come that will reverse that.

 

Go to page 49 on the latest Half year results and you will find the following:

 

 

Unit Goodwill Trade & Brand Names Total Actual Market value today Change

PEPCO 1576 293 1869 4400 2531

Pepkor 2149 1012 3161 2116                                -1045

Greenlit Brands 145 63 208 600 392

MF 50 1850 1800

 

                                                                                                                                          Total change 3678

 

So as of today and with generous estimation of IPO for MF and Greenlit the equity will increase by Eur 3,678 bil.

 

So -5,4 + 3,7 =  -1,7 bil the SNH equity in balance sheet will remain negative yet people are prepared to pay R5 for it??

 

Fourth question: Dividends payout from where will SNH get the cash to pay the dividends? The only income they have is dividends from the units.

 

Anyway time for green beer!!! I am simply trying to point out some red lights!!!

[DayTraderDad]

Thanks for that, I was unaware of that principle. The price has recovered a bit so maybe there was also some profit taking as well. Its around 5 again
I wonder where this share is going to max out considering the huge debt pile still to be repaid and the enormous interest on debt per annum that was alluded to. Also I  am sure from the present info that Steinhoff will maintain its majority shareholding in Greenlit, MF,  Pepco and Pepkor,  correct? so surely that in itself would  support a future share price beyond 12.50 or 14.50? 
Somewhere I saw a valuation of 0.79 Euro for Snh in 2026. In todays terms that is about 14.20 which is close to the 12.50 that was also predicted on this chat.
So I am pretty confident to hold on to this share until it at least go  beyond R12, come what may in the interim

I dont believe SNH will end up having a majority in MF ( my gut feel is they going to sell it all together and have zero holding) The same will be for Greenlit. As for Pepkor the holding going to drop to 46% before debt settlement. The only unit that I am hoping they will keep a majority is PEPCO however they will have to pay by 2023 5 years of interest at Eur 900 bil per year or a total sum of Eur4,5 bil Then they will have to reduce the debt to manageble levels my take they need to pay about Eur5,6 bil and keepEur4 bil rolling over.

My question to pay that how much of PEPCO and Pepkor has to be sold as MF and Greenlit will provide maximum Eur2,4 bil.

[DayTraderDad]

Haha my avg R2.50, nothing poor about my balls... It's just itchy

But chill... Typical pump and dump, pump is still comming for end Jan... U shud know this right?

Haha well done so you jumped in did not wait for the 50 cents!

For day trading SNH is a fantastic ATM

[Polla]

Good for those taking profits. No shame at getting off at the 1st stop.

Me, I’m in it for the long haul. At a cost avg of R1,30, I could give a rats if it were to drop like all the experts here say it will. Nothing gained nothing lost.

This to me is a ‘leave a legacy’ share. EVENTUALLY In my lifetime SNH will pay dividends, be it in 5 or 15 years. And when that day comes, I’m going to thank myself for not getting off the train at the 1st time seeing R5.

To each his own.

Last year this time share closed at R1.01.... It's been a good year.. I believe we've reached the point where the good news will start trickling in... I'm still in it for the long..

[new john]

Good for those taking profits. No shame at getting off at the 1st stop.

Me, I’m in it for the long haul. At a cost avg of R1,30, I could give a rats if it were to drop like all the experts here say it will. Nothing gained nothing lost.

This to me is a ‘leave a legacy’ share. EVENTUALLY In my lifetime SNH will pay dividends, be it in 5 or 15 years. And when that day comes, I’m going to thank myself for not getting off the train at the 1st time seeing R5.

To each his own.

Edited by new john, 29 December 2021 - 05:11 PM.

[Tiekkie]

Share jumps 28% yesterday and drops 4% today. Come on guys we've been through worse...that's why I'm up over 300% still..holding on was a huge benefit

[Trader001]

German companies year ends are mostly on 31 December 20XX and most of South African companies and personal income taxes are 28 February 20XX.

I’m not sure but could be the reason for the dump to restock for the financial year. Financially; Cash and Bank Balance are higher assets for a company than investments which are recorded at cost price and not market value which could be the results we are seeing

Thanks for that, I was unaware of that principle. The price has recovered a bit so maybe there was also some profit taking as well. Its around 5 again

I wonder where this share is going to max out considering the huge debt pile still to be repaid and the enormous interest on debt per annum that was alluded to. Also I  am sure from the present info that Steinhoff will maintain its majority shareholding in Greenlit, MF,  Pepco and Pepkor,  correct? so surely that in itself would  support a future share price beyond 12.50 or 14.50? 

Somewhere I saw a valuation of 0.79 Euro for Snh in 2026. In todays terms that is about 14.20 which is close to the 12.50 that was also predicted on this chat.

So I am pretty confident to hold on to this share until it at least go  beyond R12, come what may in the interim

[Lionelza1]

Haha poor Lionel's balls!

Haha my avg R2.50, nothing poor about my balls... It's just itchy 😁

But chill... Typical pump and dump, pump is still comming for end Jan... U shud know this right?

[Peanut_Butter]

German companies year ends are mostly on 31 December 20XX and most of South African companies and personal income taxes are 28 February 20XX.

I’m not sure but could be the reason for the dump to restock for the financial year. Financially; Cash and Bank Balance are higher assets for a company than investments which are recorded at cost price and not market value which could be the results we are seeing

Edited by Peanut_Butter, 29 December 2021 - 03:22 PM.