15225 replies to this topic

[Procrastinator]

I totally agree...It's very frustrating, but bad news just sells more newspapers than good news...something to be wary of...

Indeed, we must be wary of the negative dastardly press core !

Pity about the massive fraud perpetrated by Steinhoff senior staff, the resultant 95% collapse in value of the company and the almost 160 Billion rand debt pile to be serviced.
Lots of good news to report.

[Dell]

I totally agree...It's very frustrating, but bad news just sells more newspapers than good news...something to be wary of...

[Investment novice]

Just seen the trading uodate fo tempur sealy. Their margins in excess of 40 %. This might be the reason their relationship with Steinhoff ended. SNH better able to extract effieciencies with the integrated approach. The downsizing and structural changes are positive.
Again my question. Should journalists not
Adequately investigate and report on both positivr and negative.


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[Investment novice]

hi, has anyone reviewed the end of April shareholding to confirm movements and interest?

[Investment novice]

hi, has anyone reviewed the end of April shareholding to confirm movements and interest?

[Investment novice]

Polly thats good advice. I have cash accumulated for modeate and low risk an will invest fom there when certain levels are breached. I have liquadated my high isk and pumping at intervals into snh as we dont know where it will go. I will alo keep 100k fo a sudden buy if there is total collapse an sale at depseration at 30 cents...this ia part of the high risk....

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[Polly]

lets look at a scenario analysis with given and assumed information- as you are quite right - we don't have all the facts

 

1. worse case- suspension- lots of shareholding, no recovery with a  stripped asset base- we will only have some winners VC and all others are losers- no legal liability for a bankrupt entity. I take this as a probable scenario but expect that there Is more money to be made with restructured debt, cheap equity and recovery.

 

2.  scenario 2- restructured debt, cheap equity and   legal settlement-  no dividends for 4 to 5 years- share price recovers to r7 following restructure. according to wiese we may have debt restructure; listing of SNH property portfolio and a HEAP of STAR assets....

 

3 scenario 3 - PWC report discloses all the holes- fantastic as we are at either scenario 1 or 2 or probably 3- scenario - market over- reaction- share R12 to R14 by December and climbing steadily to R30 end 2019 with settlement of claims

 

 

I have therefore a range from  R0 to R30 with a mid price at R7.00 to R12.00 R7 by end May if we have debt restructuring which I doubt as we need financials- but may get at least a grace period to ensure covenants are not breeched.

 

The share is currently at R1.90 with doomsday priced in...a penny stock.

 

In that case, as i waited for break of R5.00 to go short, and as Bullhunter said best time to buy is when prices are rising, i would if i were you, go in on break of R5.00 to upside and add more on break of R10.00. Otherwise you playing a very high risk game.

However seeing you already bought much higher and added lower, its time to pray and hope with sleepless nights.

[Investment novice]

This s great news..and stale news..operational amd business enhancements. Downsizing and reviewing exhorbitant lease agreements, new store opening, new product lines an posturing to take advantage of cross business polination....as long as managemet are aggressively foxussed on survival...efficienxy and margin imprvement...this is good

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[Investment novice]

lets look at a scenario analysis with given and assumed information- as you are quite right - we don't have all the facts

 

1. worse case- suspension- lots of shareholding, no recovery with a  stripped asset base- we will only have some winners VC and all others are losers- no legal liability for a bankrupt entity. I take this as a probable scenario but expect that there Is more money to be made with restructured debt, cheap equity and recovery.

 

2.  scenario 2- restructured debt, cheap equity and   legal settlement-  no dividends for 4 to 5 years- share price recovers to r7 following restructure. according to wiese we may have debt restructure; listing of SNH property portfolio and a HEAP of STAR assets....

 

3 scenario 3 - PWC report discloses all the holes- fantastic as we are at either scenario 1 or 2 or probably 3- scenario - market over- reaction- share R12 to R14 by December and climbing steadily to R30 end 2019 with settlement of claims

 

 

I have therefore a range from  R0 to R30 with a mid price at R7.00 to R12.00 R7 by end May if we have debt restructuring which I doubt as we need financials- but may get at least a grace period to ensure covenants are not breeched.

 

The share is currently at R1.90 with doomsday priced in...a penny stock.

 

 

 

 

[Shi]

https://www.moneyweb...is-overstuffed/

 

 

Because of its accumulation of so many surplus stores, Mattress Firm is now in the process of closing almost 300 of them. Wedbush analyst Seth Basham reckons at least twice that number might be axed this year and that Steinhoff could end up selling Mattress Firm, as a whole or in parts. But who would want to buy it and at what price? “I don’t think Mattress Firm is worth what Steinhoff paid,” says Shah.

[Polly]

Look In with little info we have and thats coming out in drips and drabs, no one can make any concrete conclusion as to where this is heading. You could be right or i could be hopelessly wrong.  I see you have done a lot of homework on this so kudos to you for that. But to go big , you can make big or lose big. Maybe you happy to take that risk.

 

Give me 3 levels of price you see this going into the future?

[Investment novice]

Polly- I wanted to interrogate your statement - "These scenarios normally most of the time finish in a total and complete disaster.( ABIL comes to mind recently...."

using information readily available in the market:

 

Investors might remember that shortly after African Bank was placed under curatorship, we stated that we believe that the loss of capital would not be permanent. To that point, our latest Quarterly Newsletter (4Q2016) goes into more detail to demonstrate that the full capital loss has been recovered fully – and that was prior to the African Bank Preference Shares being re-priced in the market from the suspended R7.80 (Element’s carrying value while the shares were suspended) to R33.50 (closing price as at 9 February 2017), an increase of 429%!

http://www.elementim...-news/read/443/

 

I do feel for those that have lost in the Steinhoff debarcle:

 

but surely there is an opportunity for value recovery, ...it may be partially realistic...but that opportunity is there.

 

all I am trying to do with these posts is to try to get constructive discussions on scenarios...even if we are staring into the abyss with a hopeless situation...I am completely of the belief that business can survive from cash flow and SNH will have 2  to 3 years of pain if not 2 weeks to  8 months for the finalisation of restructure.

alixpartners are fantastic at what they do---some of the boards actions after the effect have been merritoriuos- perhaps this is why we have institutional buyers now in the market.....swim with the sharks and sleep with the titanic- makes for a great movie- and a great case study for me

 

[Investment novice]

Polly- I wanted to interrogate your statement - "These scenarios normally most of the time finish in a total and complete disaster.( ABIL comes to mind recently...."

using information readily available in the market:

 

Investors might remember that shortly after African Bank was placed under curatorship, we stated that we believe that the loss of capital would not be permanent. To that point, our latest Quarterly Newsletter (4Q2016) goes into more detail to demonstrate that the full capital loss has been recovered fully – and that was prior to the African Bank Preference Shares being re-priced in the market from the suspended R7.80 (Element’s carrying value while the shares were suspended) to R33.50 (closing price as at 9 February 2017), an increase of 429%!

http://www.elementim...-news/read/443/

 

I do feel for those that have lost in the Steinhoff debarcle:

 

but surely there is an opportunity for value recovery, ...it may be partially realistic...but that opportunity is there.

 

all I am trying to do with these posts is to try to get constructive discussions on scenarios...even if we are staring into the abyss with a hopeless situation...I am completely of the belief that business can survive from cash flow and SNH will have 2  to 3 years of pain if not 2 weeks to  8 months for the finalisation of restructure.

alixpartners are fantastic at what they do---some of the boards actions after the effect have been merritoriuos- perhaps this is why we have institutional buyers now in the market.....swim with the sharks and sleep with the titanic- makes for a great movie- and a great case study for me

 

[Investment novice]

IN i dont think you realize the severity of the fraud committed here. I once again bring about the fact " Why was Jooste the first to disappear?" Cos he knew very well where this one was going. Every week new cases of fraud appear...Next one is the property side again. These guys had their hands in the till big time playing the piano. At times not only hands but feet as well.... Remember for every buyer there is a seller. So by u looking at the buys only, think about the sells. IMO the rat and mice are buying trying to pick up a bargain. These scenarios normally most of the time finish in a total and complete disaster.( ABIL comes to mind recently)

Fraud is massive- & billion euros of assets need to verified. of which we know that the property contributes to the 2 billion of the 7- upside is that 1 billion has been verified and this is conservative excluding leases.

we now also have Austrian share valuation in 2016 which contributes to another 6 billion odd- of which we expect that to be worth 2-3 billion if at all- meaning that we have verified assets in the likelihood .

 

the major fraud that market is worried about is falsified income- and we know this is a percentage of income not total income based on q1 2018 revenues.

there could be massive other fraud as well- we will know only by the end of the year. here I am biased clearly- I think the fraud is 10% of total revenue and not more than 30%

[Polly]

IN i dont think you realize the severity of the fraud committed here. I once again bring about the fact " Why was Jooste the first to disappear?" Cos he knew very well where this one was going. Every week new cases of fraud appear...Next one is the property side again. These guys had their hands in the till big time playing the piano. At times not only hands but feet as well.... Remember for every buyer there is a seller. So by u looking at the buys only, think about the sells. IMO the rat and mice are buying trying to pick up a bargain. These scenarios normally most of the time finish in a total and complete disaster.( ABIL comes to mind recently)

[Investment novice]

Surely, if there are changes in significant shareholders' holdings, there needs to be a related SENS announcement.

true- but only if it is a large percentage compared to total shareholding and may not be if less than 5% moves. not sure about this- you raised a very valid point.

I am only going by the compushare information which you should be also able to purchase.

if anyone has a chance to access please can you do so and verify or nullify my statements. I am open to correction in the interests of getting relevant and factual information to guide us all

[Shi]

Surely, if there are changes in significant shareholders' holdings, there needs to be a related SENS announcement.

Edited by Shi, 07 May 2018 - 09:36 AM.

[Investment novice]

the business times article on Steinhoff was all gloom and doom - painful reading for shareholders and this may in fact be the reality.

however I still cannot understand why the articles are only doom and gloom. would there be no benefit in considering that there is a probability of reprieve and that SNH may survive this carnage- ask the question at least ?

despite the gllom and doom, the investment houses have slowly and quietly been increasing their holdings- including Allan gray. perhaps we will get balanced investigative journalism after the effect- perhaps not.

be fantastic to get some guidance this week as to why there is such a disconnect between the news in the market and the actions of the institutional investors (al excluding PIC- they should be investigated and cleansed- Fedusa please question the PIC integrity as well)

[Snippit]

This share ownership listing is quite an interestin read...the PIC have also funded bbbee shares for lancaster company..notonly did the lancaster compay not get a funded share potfolio but for his incredulous transacrion steinhoff paid them 2.5 % premium for the transaction....similar to wiese and upington ...no other shareholders get preferential treatment....why is fedusa not raising issues with this...why is amabungane so quiet on these sort of deals .......the PIC needs to account for their transactions and enrichment of friends...

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These issues were dealt with in the Bible (Genesis) and throughout the Hebrew Bible, the New Testament and in the deuterocanonical books, as well as in the Quran and the hadith. The references to the locales of Sodom and Gomorrah pinpoint where we are and where we are going. History repeats because those that were left behind still need to catch up. Enjoy the ride? I think not.

[Investment novice]

This share ownership listing is quite an interestin read...the PIC have also funded bbbee shares for lancaster company..notonly did the lancaster compay not get a funded share potfolio but for his incredulous transacrion steinhoff paid them 2.5 % premium for the transaction....similar to wiese and upington ...no other shareholders get preferential treatment....why is fedusa not raising issues with this...why is amabungane so quiet on these sort of deals .......the PIC needs to account for their transactions and enrichment of friends...

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