15225 replies to this topic

[Ram85]

I revceived the full shareholder print out end of april and arranged by prder of maximal shareholing. Tested total shares 4.3 billion. Spent 30 minutes looking at top 100 by volume...comparing to share volume disclosures in december....

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Ok, that is great news then. I have to be honest I would have felt better if PIC still had a big piece of the pie. 

I still feel that Chisto Wiesie could be silently increasing his shares and possibly try and take pepkor back. 

 

Thank you for the handy info and the quick reply. 

[Investment novice]

I revceived the full shareholder print out end of april and arranged by prder of maximal shareholing. Tested total shares 4.3 billion. Spent 30 minutes looking at top 100 by volume...comparing to share volume disclosures in december....

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[Ram85]

So here ia some really interesting information from the sare analysis...one ofthe reasons for the share price drop is the PIC dumping thee 300 million shares. This would have been very discomforting however investment houses haveincreased their exposure. Allan gray balance fund increased exposure almost 700 percent to 30 million odd from 0.11% disclosed in dec 2017. Lenders from london have also bought eccessive shares. This gives me great confidence in the company survival. Allan gray and many other funds have also bought sares for their various products and on behlaf of individuals.......
I could have erred. But highly unlikely
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Not sure PIC dropped 300 million shares looking at the trades on https://za.investing...tional-hld-(j).I can see Christo Wiese's 70 odd million share dump in the chart(it matches the news articles of him dumping shares).

Where did you see the information regarding PIC dumping shares and Alan Grey increasing their exposure, I can't seem to find any information on that? 

 

On another note, the below article dated Feb gives me the idea Wiese could easily make his way back up to 20+% by pumping and dumping Steinhoff shares after he reduced his stake from 21% to 6% on 13 Feb at R5.50 a share. Especially, at the current R2 levels

https://www.business...einhoff-shares/

Edited by Ram85, 04 May 2018 - 08:54 PM.

[Investment novice]

So here ia some really interesting information from the sare analysis...one ofthe reasons for the share price drop is the PIC dumping thee 300 million shares. This would have been very discomforting however investment houses haveincreased their exposure. Allan gray balance fund increased exposure almost 700 percent to 30 million odd from 0.11% disclosed in dec 2017. Lenders from london have also bought eccessive shares. This gives me great confidence in the company survival. Allan gray and many other funds have also bought sares for their various products and on behlaf of individuals.......
I could have erred. But highly unlikely
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[Investment novice]

I've also noticed the tread since investing in SNH... unlucky for me I started when the share price was at R7.50(first time share buyer) as I felt that surely a company that has such a large effect (people's pension funds etc) might get a bailout or something. I've invested more at this low price to get my average share price down and because I feel there is still a very good chance of a recovery to around R10 per share in the next 2 years.

 

I noticed after buying at watching shares that it was never a good idea to buy shares either early in the morning or late in the day. Watching the trends large volumes are traded after 3pm that affect the share prices (mostly positively), then the next morning share price falls again. 

 

Since you're talking about computer trades... that could lead to a pump and dump system similar to what is happening with some Cryptocurrencies, where one "whale" with deep pockets is manipulating the market making 10+% profit per pump and dump. If this is the case then I fear SNH shares are not a good buy. 

It could also be that someone like Christo Wiese (who cashed out about 700 million+ shares at around R5.50 could be playing the market and increasing his shares significantly. 
 

Like you I am betting on the survival of Steinhoff, but like you said this is "Very High Risk" and not a short-term investment.

 

The biggest questions for me is how low can the share price realistically go to considering the underlying businesses and what happens us if Steinhoff declares bankruptcy or is taken over by another company. 

agree with your pump and dump notion. trades are elevated on opening and closing with a mid afternoon dip. there is also a increase in Frankfurt - Franfurt time- late afternoon.

To answer your question- how low can this go- it can go all the way to 70c- however I think the bottom is at R1.70. the current trades are new entrants wanting to make a quick buck and sell off when they panic and the stop loss kicks in. these trades can drive the price up or low- unfortunately with SNH the market is extremely jittery with complete loss in confidence so can expect movements any which way. I have been buying from R9 and adding to my collection with fund availability. I don't do CFD's and options. I buy to hold. but being human we always think if only I waited I could have picked up more shares at a lower price....but then with many companies I lost big holding out for a few cents or rands.

so- my strategy buy as much as I can get my hand on irrespective of the price.

next question- what happens if this company is traded- this can only occur after Jan 2019 with disclosures- I have factored this as one of my scenarios in my modelling. few years back- online sales had the jump on brick and mortar- but time has allowed brick and mortar to play catchup - not as effectively as the giants at amazon. However the business cycle is now turning to where click needs brick and collection depots and touch points for customers to experience goods. increasingly they are investing in stores with footprints. the world of 2019 onwards is certainly a hybrid of the both with leaders in sales offering product experience, testing, delivery; convenience; and pricing that is equivacle whether online or front end shop. This make SNH valuable. in addition- Their massive footprint; end to end product development; logistic warehousing and sourcing capabilities promotes higher margins for a massive market segment. Tech companies facing a bubble in their valuation and concerns on their sustainability will look at SNH as a truly valuable asset- buy at a discount and fair value- which is certainly more than R7 (conforamas value per share by some analysts statements). the liabilities , debt and legal cases are huge which many would argue devalues SNH completely- but this is not terminal- debt can be restructured or refinanced if the company is acquired. shareholders would be willing to settle legal claims for an agreed amount and shareholding ,

the current SNH value is a perceived value mainly due to market panic and or trades but is not reflective.

I have been drilling down into the individual businesses and their response to the crisis has been phenomenal- this has been a significant motivator for my investments- the belief in senior management.

and lastly it takes a crisis to clean the books, integrate operational processes and cash flows; revise a strategy and trim waste- the required stressors to ensure that this ugly duckling turns into a beautiful swan

[Investment novice]

I could not understand why Steinhoff was in such a rush to settle the preference shareholders- todays business day article points to some of the major accounting irregularities and also explains the unanswered questions on how SNH was able to maintain their  low taxes.

we wait with baited breath for Steinhoff to explain their 10 fold valuation of the Austrian finance asset and Deloittes and all other third parties involved to explain this and or share in the liability. How is Mr Wiese and the board going to duck this. Bad news for Directors , better news for shareholders as this weekens Wieses claims.

 

as shareholders we need to get a better understanding of SNH current operating cash flows and their ability to repay debt- which all will be answered by the time of the lenders meeting.

 

my continued trolling through google and newspapers articles suggest individual businesses are working hard to drive growth and sales momentum. all new store openings and wharehouse constructions are progressing as planned. non profitable stores being closed. Mattress firm is the biggest concern- with their 200-1000 store shut down but simultaneously new store openings in new regions. I still cannot find any news on new SNH business lines in the US taking advantage of the footprint. probably too busy driving marketing, sales and facility optimisation.

 

if any readers out there have any information on the major SNH businesses and there performances in 2018- please share those.....Googles web pages translation to English has been fantastic

[Ram85]

Hi sorry did not see your post.....why is it important to know who has been mopping up the shares????

Lots of computer trades and millions traded especially end of day.....

There are some peopl with information in the market and are betting big on snh surviving....i assume the only nes could be the vc or debt owners...if we get access to shareholder information and can confirm this we have a high probability that the restructuring will be successful....and hopefully we can be on the right side of the trend and get in cheap.....your thoughts....

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I've also noticed the tread since investing in SNH... unlucky for me I started when the share price was at R7.50(first time share buyer) as I felt that surely a company that has such a large effect (people's pension funds etc) might get a bailout or something. I've invested more at this low price to get my average share price down and because I feel there is still a very good chance of a recovery to around R10 per share in the next 2 years.

 

I noticed after buying at watching shares that it was never a good idea to buy shares either early in the morning or late in the day. Watching the trends large volumes are traded after 3pm that affect the share prices (mostly positively), then the next morning share price falls again. 

 

Since you're talking about computer trades... that could lead to a pump and dump system similar to what is happening with some Cryptocurrencies, where one "whale" with deep pockets is manipulating the market making 10+% profit per pump and dump. If this is the case then I fear SNH shares are not a good buy. 

It could also be that someone like Christo Wiese (who cashed out about 700 million+ shares at around R5.50 could be playing the market and increasing his shares significantly. 
 

Like you I am betting on the survival of Steinhoff, but like you said this is "Very High Risk" and not a short-term investment.

 

The biggest questions for me is how low can the share price realistically go to considering the underlying businesses and what happens us if Steinhoff declares bankruptcy or is taken over by another company. 

[Investment novice]

Probably, but he was also a board member (and thus also accountable for the fiasco). Also, by making the claim, he is trying to jump ahead of any shareholders in the queue if SNH goes belly up and the proceeds of this is distributed. Also, by making the claim, he is giving other shareholders the middle finger.

Wiese had the opportunity of doing a due diligence which ordinary sharehokders did not....he was a pampoen....and his antics has affected shareholders. If anything he should fall on his sword and dissappear into obscurity or be hailed a hero if he saves snh through these actions

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[Investment novice]

Great post regarding the possibilities of the share price increasing again. With the amount already reported in the news regarding Discovery and Investec's buying of cheap Steinhoff share, I feel there is value.

Could you please shed more light on why it's so important to know who's been buying the share?

Hi sorry did not see your post.....why is it important to know who has been mopping up the shares????

Lots of computer trades and millions traded especially end of day.....

There are some peopl with information in the market and are betting big on snh surviving....i assume the only nes could be the vc or debt owners...if we get access to shareholder information and can confirm this we have a high probability that the restructuring will be successful....and hopefully we can be on the right side of the trend and get in cheap.....your thoughts....

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[Investment novice]

I'm afraid you are too optimistic.

 

SNH  overpaid for its acquisitions (paid Wiese 46 times Pepkor earnings,a crazy 100 % premium for Mattress Firm etc.) using, mostly, debt and inflated share prices.  

 

P.S   Never be in a rush to buy cheap stocks. Wait for them to start RISING and sell at  HIGHER prices.

        90% OF YOUR LOSSES WILL COME FROM STOCKS WHICH WHERE NOT RISING WHEN YOU BOUGHT THEM.

 

Now, in order to pay off the debt, SNH has to sell assets at prices much lower than what they paid (no-one will pay 46 times earnings for Pepkor or a 100% premium for Mattress Firm). 

 

Wiese's claim is spurious. He sold Pepkor in exchange for shares in SNH. So, like any shareholder he is last in the queue (and after preference share holders). His shares are almost worthless,as we know, but it his his loss and not a company liability. 

 

The only way I can see SNH surviving is if the banks restructure their debt and/or the proceeds from the sale of assets can retire the debt. Otherwise, the assets will be sold off to vultures waiting in the wings. In the latter scenario, SNH's liabilities will exceed its liabilities and therefore will not be  a going concern and will  be declared bankrupt. 

i cant fault your statements- and would say true in some scenarios

businesses don't run on profit and liabilities, they run on cash flow and liquidity- if the debt restructuring is successful wahoo we have a big play- but this will be delayed until financials are out- perhaps there will be part .

I am extremely optimistic and got another 10 000 shares this morning in addition to my 25000 Tuesday and 60000 last Thursday.

I am happy with the risk.

there have been no talks on bankruptcy protection which is instituted earlier than usual so not concerned about bankruptcy.

also new debt holders that bought the debt cheap  and are in no rush to get the assets but rather cement a solid position and make multiples of cash.

this is a high risk play, which I am happy to risk at this price for the volume of shares.

[Shi]

My take is he has a valid claim. 

Simple example .A valuable  asset was sold by him and he was paid for in fake counterfeit  money. 

 

Probably, but he was also a board member (and thus also accountable for the fiasco). Also, by making the claim, he is trying to jump ahead of any shareholders in the queue if SNH goes belly up and the proceeds of this is distributed. Also, by making the claim, he is giving other shareholders the middle finger.

Edited by Shi, 03 May 2018 - 09:25 AM.

[Procrastinator]

My take is he has a valid claim. 
Simple example .A valuable  asset was sold by him and he was paid for in fake counterfeit  money.

He was paid in hard cash and shares in Snh for pepkor which he accepted.
Shares in a listed entity are not fake or counterfeit.
The shares as you know represent an ownership portion of the company and its assets, if there is fraudulent activity that takes place in the underlying business it does not make the shares fake or counterfeit.
Listed companies experience dishonesty in their organisations all the time, it is the just the scale of the dishonesty that has caught everyone out, Wiese just got caught out more than most shareholders in terms of the hit he would likely have to accept.

[Polly]

 

Wiese's claim is spurious. He sold Pepkor in exchange for shares in SNH. So, like any shareholder he is last in the queue (and after preference share holders). His shares are almost worthless,as we know, but it his his loss and not a company liability. 

 

 

My take is he has a valid claim. 

Simple example .A valuable  asset was sold by him and he was paid for in fake counterfeit  money. 

[Bullhunter]

I'm afraid you are too optimistic.

 

SNH  overpaid for its acquisitions (paid Wiese 46 times Pepkor earnings,a crazy 100 % premium for Mattress Firm etc.) using, mostly, debt and inflated share prices.  

 

P.S   Never be in a rush to buy cheap stocks. Wait for them to start RISING and sell at  HIGHER prices.

        90% OF YOUR LOSSES WILL COME FROM STOCKS WHICH WHERE NOT RISING WHEN YOU BOUGHT THEM.

 

Now, in order to pay off the debt, SNH has to sell assets at prices much lower than what they paid (no-one will pay 46 times earnings for Pepkor or a 100% premium for Mattress Firm). 

 

Wiese's claim is spurious. He sold Pepkor in exchange for shares in SNH. So, like any shareholder he is last in the queue (and after preference share holders). His shares are almost worthless,as we know, but it his his loss and not a company liability. 

 

The only way I can see SNH surviving is if the banks restructure their debt and/or the proceeds from the sale of assets can retire the debt. Otherwise, the assets will be sold off to vultures waiting in the wings. In the latter scenario, SNH's liabilities will exceed its liabilities and therefore will not be  a going concern and will  be declared bankrupt. 

 

Correction:.....liabilities will exceed its assets...........

 

P.S.Never be in a rush to buy cheap stocks. Wait for them to start RISING and sell at HIGHER prices.

       90% OF YOUR LOSSES WILL COME FROM STOCKS WHICH WHERE NOT RISING WHEN YOU BOUGHT THEM.

       WINNERS KEEP ON WINNING,  LOSERS KEEP ON LOSING.   

[Bullhunter]

Thursday my initial reaction was of fury and dismay with utter loss of words for what Wiese had done. go after a company for r59 billion, not get a cent if they bankrupt and lose your additional 6% shareholding.

however trying to understand the strategy behind this brings me to this understanding- and it me that I am blinded again by my investment:

Wiese is neutralising all other of the shareholder claims by screaming the loudest- in a bargaining position he will settle for a manageable some of money- in his words- perhaps some additional shares. during restructuring conversations with claimants- they either all get close to nothing or work together get minimal settlement  and some recovery of share value and perhaps a share allocation of the listed property company ($1.1b excluding lease income and new warehousing buildings coming to fruition in 2018 and 2019).

I hope to again by another 25000 shares at R1.75 this morning. putting my money where my mouth is and backing my understanding and remaining value. I still hold R10 per share with initial confidence regained and perhaps R20 by 2019. if this comes off a great pension plan, dividend and currency hedge share with global exposure. to good to pass.

does anybody know how to retrieve shareholding of SNH end April. I want to test my assumption that Wiese has increased his shareholding as are the Venture capitalist that bought the debt cheap . the trade trends suggest that there are extremely keen mopping agents in the market- ????

I'm afraid you are too optimistic.

 

SNH  overpaid for its acquisitions (paid Wiese 46 times Pepkor earnings,a crazy 100 % premium for Mattress Firm etc.) using, mostly, debt and inflated share prices.  

 

P.S   Never be in a rush to buy cheap stocks. Wait for them to start RISING and sell at  HIGHER prices.

        90% OF YOUR LOSSES WILL COME FROM STOCKS WHICH WHERE NOT RISING WHEN YOU BOUGHT THEM.

 

Now, in order to pay off the debt, SNH has to sell assets at prices much lower than what they paid (no-one will pay 46 times earnings for Pepkor or a 100% premium for Mattress Firm). 

 

Wiese's claim is spurious. He sold Pepkor in exchange for shares in SNH. So, like any shareholder he is last in the queue (and after preference share holders). His shares are almost worthless,as we know, but it his his loss and not a company liability. 

 

The only way I can see SNH surviving is if the banks restructure their debt and/or the proceeds from the sale of assets can retire the debt. Otherwise, the assets will be sold off to vultures waiting in the wings. In the latter scenario, SNH's liabilities will exceed its liabilities and therefore will not be  a going concern and will  be declared bankrupt. 

Edited by Bullhunter, 02 May 2018 - 06:03 PM.

[Ram85]

outstanding information

 

it is absolutely an imperative to understand who has been investing in SNH shares and if the debt holders are buying up shares for a double play. if anyone has an idea......please share with us in the dark???

also would love to understand in general who has been buying the shares---institutional investors???Wiese??? family of SNH ??? senior management at SNH

 

Great post regarding the possibilities of the share price increasing again. With the amount already reported in the news regarding Discovery and Investec's buying of cheap Steinhoff share, I feel there is value.

 

Could you please shed more light on why it's so important to know who's been buying the share?

[Investment novice]

loads of articles and interviews over the past long weekend with Wiese.

 

some interesting statements:

 

1. in an interview Wieses response to the likelihood of a successful legal case-------not very committal on the strength or likelihood of success- anyone going into a massive legal battle would be more aggressive and obviously be more committal on intended outcome.

 

2. Wiese comments on Viceroy report- Viceroy re-hashed information that Steinhoff had defended and refuted themselves following an internal forensic investigation-

 

To date we have the following

 

fraud is based on asset valuations and falsified income-

 

1. we know that the asset valuation of 1.1 billion is less than the 2 billion- however it is also more than the 1.1b as none  of the lease agreements were included

2. falsified income - jooste manipulated a proportion of historical income to meet market expectations- he did not falsify total income- q1 2018 results were less than impressive- but still impressive against current valuation.

3. wiese expects listing of property portfolio to be part of company restructuring and he believes that he and other claimants may be appeased with this. he also expects Steinhoff value recovery - which ensures stakeholders will be better off with a successful recovery of Steinhoff rather than a bankrupt Steinhoff

 

where to from here:

 

1. H1 results are critical and need to be in the ball park of 2017 - plus or minus 10 %- anything within 10% with operational improvements and growth will be fantastic. this excludes the POCO financials

 

2. debt restructuring- this will be a major boost of confidence for the company

 

3. Forensic report

 

4. Listing of Steinhoff property company and part or full settlement of claims

 

5. debt settlement

 

 

if any of the above start to kick in - be good to jump onto the ship

 

Risks

 

there may be more cockroaches hidden- we don't know what these are and if significant enough to derail the recovery

 

outstanding information

 

it is absolutely an imperative to understand who has been investing in SNH shares and if the debt holders are buying up shares for a double play. if anyone has an idea......please share with us in the dark???

also would love to understand in general who has been buying the shares---institutional investors???Wiese??? family of SNH ??? senior management at SNH

[Investment novice]

Problem with any takeover aspirations has to be that a large chunk of his wealth was in Pepkor which was rolled into SNH and has now evaporated, SNH has to sell assets that it has in order to bring in cash to prevent liquidation so maybe Pepkor will have to be sold off.

Pretty sure Brait would be a starter for Pepkor again at the right price.

Thursday my initial reaction was of fury and dismay with utter loss of words for what Wiese had done. go after a company for r59 billion, not get a cent if they bankrupt and lose your additional 6% shareholding.

however trying to understand the strategy behind this brings me to this understanding- and it me that I am blinded again by my investment:

Wiese is neutralising all other of the shareholder claims by screaming the loudest- in a bargaining position he will settle for a manageable some of money- in his words- perhaps some additional shares. during restructuring conversations with claimants- they either all get close to nothing or work together get minimal settlement  and some recovery of share value and perhaps a share allocation of the listed property company ($1.1b excluding lease income and new warehousing buildings coming to fruition in 2018 and 2019).

I hope to again by another 25000 shares at R1.75 this morning. putting my money where my mouth is and backing my understanding and remaining value. I still hold R10 per share with initial confidence regained and perhaps R20 by 2019. if this comes off a great pension plan, dividend and currency hedge share with global exposure. to good to pass.

does anybody know how to retrieve shareholding of SNH end April. I want to test my assumption that Wiese has increased his shareholding as are the Venture capitalist that bought the debt cheap . the trade trends suggest that there are extremely keen mopping agents in the market- ????

[Procrastinator]

Yes it might not go his way, but any shareholder in SNH will now have to factor this 59B into the equation. This claim is not going away anytime soon and will be around for a while even after the financials have come out. The fact that he was chairperson and the fact that the financials is still 6 months away says all we need to know about Wiese. Hero to zero. He knows full well that the share price is going to tank even further on this news. Could he be setting a hostile takeover in motion where he gets SNH (or Pepkor) on the cheap?
 
I see SNH going below 100c very soon.

Problem with any takeover aspirations has to be that a large chunk of his wealth was in Pepkor which was rolled into SNH and has now evaporated, SNH has to sell assets that it has in order to bring in cash to prevent liquidation so maybe Pepkor will have to be sold off.

Pretty sure Brait would be a starter for Pepkor again at the right price.

[Shi]

Wiese is making the claim, does not mean that this will go his way, especially in lieu of the fact that he was chairman of the group he now wants to claim against.
He may have better luck going for the auditors that did the due diligence prior to accepting the script portion for pepkor deal.

Due to the fact that everyone relied on the auditors to verify the financials he got burned just like all the other shareholders.

As he was the chair of Steinhoff just makes him look a lot worse as the deals he did were in 2015, not like he sold pepkor to them a week before Marcus did a duck.

 

Yes it might not go his way, but any shareholder in SNH will now have to factor this 59B into the equation. This claim is not going away anytime soon and will be around for a while even after the financials have come out. The fact that he was chairperson and the fact that the financials is still 6 months away says all we need to know about Wiese. Hero to zero. He knows full well that the share price is going to tank even further on this news. Could he be setting a hostile takeover in motion where he gets SNH (or Pepkor) on the cheap?

 

I see SNH going below 100c very soon.

Edited by Shi, 28 April 2018 - 08:26 AM.