15225 replies to this topic

[leo]

Been follow the comments for a while. So, my high level take.

Lets take a conservative R40 per share before the crash. @ 4.3b issues shares = R172b @ 15 to the Euro= c. €11.5b equity value, ie debt include. Less the dodge €7b assets. Then you at €4.5b equity value. @ 15 = R67.5B. ÷ by 4.3b issued shares = c. R15 per share. This is before any debt conversion to equity. Ie dilution. So maybe R10 bucks. And that's a good scenario.

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[Dusty Mountain]

On the speculation of a trading suspension, I have sold out (took a bit of a knock) and will revisit once suspension is off the table... hoping it all pans out positively.

[Investment novice]

IN, any idea what time the meeting will take place on Friday and if the information will become available during that day? For example, if the meeting happens after 5pm on Friday we will only be able to buy shares on Monday...

it will be a very long meeting as SNH indicated it has as multiple presentations to make- varying strategies )(offers or proposals ) to the different debt holders. they have fantastic and experienced restructuring experts at their side - with years of experience, as well as a Chief restructuring expert.

if it is good news you will have several days later to get on the band wagon so don't worry about the timing-

if you have available risk cash consider plonking it in -

I am hoping that with good news and the allay of fears of bankruptcy this share could very well climb to hit the following first  R7; if breached; R12; if breached R14...this could happen in 5 to 10 days.

[Ram85]

hope you all have liquidity- if the restructuring meeting provides information suggesting SNH survival may see a fast share price resurgence- may be a sign to get on board.

if not its will be one way traffic downwards to a new low....

good time for prayer

 

IN, any idea what time the meeting will take place on Friday and if the information will become available during that day? For example, if the meeting happens after 5pm on Friday we will only be able to buy shares on Monday...

[Investment novice]

hope you all have liquidity- if the restructuring meeting provides information suggesting SNH survival may see a fast share price resurgence- may be a sign to get on board.

if not its will be one way traffic downwards to a new low....

good time for prayer

 

[Investment novice]

IN i think its time you look at the technicals and forget about the fundamentals.

This share is making higher lows . Means stay out unless you see a reversal. None forth coming last 2 months. Why would you want to be in a share like this?  

Polly, you r advice and guidance is truly appreciated. My posts are intended to drive some form of perspective on this issue. Fact this company is a **** company for destroying so much value much of it from the pensioners. I gather that. fact - the technical are indicative.

 

however- lets ;look at the past week- opinion- coronation is suing Steinhoff- no they are considering their options- which could be focussed on the culprits etc. not fact

opinion- Frankfurt are considering suspension of the share- this was raised previously and clearly addressed by Steinhoff in the SENS as well as by me personally in written email communication with the investment relations team yesterday. it is unlikely we would have had a share price drop as we did without the fake news

 

now more facts- coronation have not sold out their shareholding; large number of institutional investors getting in, high volume shares traded but the intraday pattern shows dip and recovery

fact- why would a shareholder sue itself especially when the likely outcome would be lose lose

fact- Steinhoff have already commenced constructive talks with lenders to delay breach of covenants- this is a massive win

fact- SNH will be engaging lenders tomorrow with different strategies for each focussing on repayment and working capital management

fact- above guides as to the likelihood of the conversation- working capital management ulikely to be on the table if this company was heading for liquidation

fact- snh has not filed for bankruptcy protection

fact- there is sufficient capital to pay 2018 and 2019 debts (sale of poco and star det of 1.1 billion)

 

I could go on

 

if you have money to spare this is a dead horse that could be flogged and resuscitated-

I hope for myslef of course to make some money- but considering the pensioners involved and the large amounts they have lost- I pray at least for them they get some legal settlement but more importantly recovery of the share price somewhat which will be multiples more than what a settlement looks like...

 

so if you nervous sell or don't buy; if you are an economist with business acumen and experience- hold or buy; or if you a dire hopeless fool buy like me

[Investment novice]

Agree Polly. Technicals are well defined.
Stay out if you not in. And hold cash for reversal.


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[Polly]

IN i think its time you look at the technicals and forget about the fundamentals.

This share is making higher lows . Means stay out unless you see a reversal. None forth coming last 2 months. Why would you want to be in a share like this?  

[Investment novice]

Massive volumes in SRR today. Also, higher volumes in SNH. Both shares are down. Someone out there knows something....

volumes up due to market uncertainty and not necessarily that someone knows better or market panic- if that were the case you would have expected 100 - 200 million disposal and the share price at 70c.

I have been able to contact Steinhoff and attached their reply-

Received form SNH investor relations- "...we are not aware of any regulators seeking suspension of the Steinhoff share" 2pm today

if they were to be suspended surely SNH would be the first to know and would prepared a sens to caution discussions with the regulator

[icassim]

Massive volumes in SRR today. Also, higher volumes in SNH. Both shares are down. Someone out there knows something....

[Investment novice]

Honestly... I feel that the article is valid... really worried about Steinhoff now... will they be able to survive this?
https://www.business...ng-wound-2018-5

Received form SNH investor relations- "...we are not aware of any regulators seeking suspension of the Steinhoff share"

Fake news for sure

[Investment novice]

I have millions invested- and I am not worried. suspension may in fact be good to stop carnage of the share price.

there is certainly value and suspension may not necessarily be permanent. I wanted suspension earlier, but then would not have increased my shareholding as quickly as I did.

if the share is suspended- cannot trade - wait for restructuring and forensic guidance- the legal issues are still far away.

shareholders may still contest the restructuring if we don't agree- we not devoid of rights- even following suspension

 

one thing when suspension is lifted the share will trade at a fairer value-

take the risk or exit

blood in the streets

 

 

[Ram85]

Business insider article has shaken the market again this morning. Have requested Steinhoff to respond on whether there is validity to the Frankfurt suspension or if this is delayed and fake news....

 

Honestly... I feel that the article is valid... really worried about Steinhoff now... will they be able to survive this?
https://www.business...ng-wound-2018-5

[Investment novice]

Business insider article has shaken the market again this morning. Have requested Steinhoff to respond on whether there is validity to the Frankfurt suspension or if this is delayed and fake news....

[Investment novice]

We in a definate 2 scenario reality.
Mounting legal claims and debt restructuring...if snh cannot agree an equity sttlmen with legal claimants they will file bancruptcy protection and only debt holders get recompense with legal claimants and equity shareholders lose completely.

What would be a better solution....sh debt restructuring agreement...legal settlement from snh for agreed amount nt compromising company. Directors liability also settle some legal claims. And share recovery with a 3 to 5 year payback agreement.....

All lgal claimats now coming to the fore just to ensure that they are not deprioritised...but logically they have to still prove liability...can they hold the company liable...i.e all existing shareholders or should they go after the fraudsters....and negligent directors...
These are difficult times for shareholders sure....but these are not unrealistic times

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interestingly speaking with legal fraternity- I hope there are some readers here that can collaborate this:

business day has printed a retraction on the inference on causality between legal cases and bankruptcy. this is the first time we have seen fake news being tackled and requested to make a correction.

 

regarding the legal cases- ---if these add up and say hypothetically they all claim recompensation for lost value of R120 billion- there has not been precendent nor any cases to date in which the court penalises the shareholders and drives the company to bankruptcy to settle the full amount. if at all - there will be a penalty settlement that may be paid out after years of legal challenges. the quantum in itself is extremely difficult to determine. Wiese himself will be faced with legal battles and directors liability. then there is the matter of Pepkor and other balance sheet entities. to look up his dress will require its own forensic audit and unsure that he will come out clean to accounting manoevering employed by the very clever wealthy corporate kings...there is a strong belief that this legal battle initself will take many years to play out....and finally if at all - once the forensic analysis is complete majority of the legal cases will be targeted at the perpertrators and not the company itself- and the company itself will engage in legal challenges with perpetrators who themselves own companies and have directors liabilities and have auditors. this is going to be a fantastic test of the auditing profession and the lawyers are going to make a killing.......

 

I hold scenario 1 as least probable and scenario 2 and survival with a long drawn out debarcle as probable.

 

need some legal eagles to confirm this- as my legal team may too be blind sided....your thoughts.....

[Investment novice]

We in a definate 2 scenario reality.
Mounting legal claims and debt restructuring...if snh cannot agree an equity sttlmen with legal claimants they will file bancruptcy protection and only debt holders get recompense with legal claimants and equity shareholders lose completely.

What would be a better solution....sh debt restructuring agreement...legal settlement from snh for agreed amount nt compromising company. Directors liability also settle some legal claims. And share recovery with a 3 to 5 year payback agreement.....

All lgal claimats now coming to the fore just to ensure that they are not deprioritised...but logically they have to still prove liability...can they hold the company liable...i.e all existing shareholders or should they go after the fraudsters....and negligent directors...
These are difficult times for shareholders sure....but these are not unrealistic times

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[Investment novice]

Just thought i'd share this. Personally i am invested in Steinhoff, however I am not as confident as IN. I do believe that Steinhoff has some high quality businesses, however us Shareholders are at the back of the queue when it comes to liquidation or perhaps even restructuring given all these lawsuits.

 

At best, Steinhoff attains half decent terms at the restructuring meeting, sells off a significant amount of its operations to reduce the high debt strain on the business, and we build from there. At worst... well we all learn a very hard financial lesson about trying to catch a falling knife.

icassim- I spent time over the weekend relooking your post-

what value is ascribed the the snh business model, supply chain and logistics business.

this is the most valuable aspect of the business rather than only the shop fronts- through this they able to build cheap, distribute and sell cheaper than competitors guaranteeing at least 10% margins?

has this been considered?

[Investment novice]

Lots of legal cases mounting....interesting thing will be to see if they all will come together to sit around the table and agree a survival plan........we now in a merchant of venice situation....take your flesh shylock without spilling blood.....

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[Investment novice]

Just thought i'd share this. Personally i am invested in Steinhoff, however I am not as confident as IN. I do believe that Steinhoff has some high quality businesses, however us Shareholders are at the back of the queue when it comes to liquidation or perhaps even restructuring given all these lawsuits.

 

At best, Steinhoff attains half decent terms at the restructuring meeting, sells off a significant amount of its operations to reduce the high debt strain on the business, and we build from there. At worst... well we all learn a very hard financial lesson about trying to catch a falling knife.

This is a fantastic post. I was trying to do the exact exercise but could not find recent valuations for the individual assets.

R7 has been the common number with some proposing that even if they only left with Conforama then we are at R7.

i think R7 will be easily achieved from news of the restructuring- for nervous stomachs perhaps wait for the news and then invest- for the rest of us, buy more and pray , pray pray

[icassim]

Just thought i'd share this. Personally i am invested in Steinhoff, however I am not as confident as IN. I do believe that Steinhoff has some high quality businesses, however us Shareholders are at the back of the queue when it comes to liquidation or perhaps even restructuring given all these lawsuits.

 

At best, Steinhoff attains half decent terms at the restructuring meeting, sells off a significant amount of its operations to reduce the high debt strain on the business, and we build from there. At worst... well we all learn a very hard financial lesson about trying to catch a falling knife.

 

 

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Edited by icassim, 11 May 2018 - 03:42 PM.