15225 replies to this topic

[Snippit]

Upper boundary just fine tuned at 197 with daytrading -ve divergence on a high RSI. Waiting for news remains not good enough. 

[Investment novice]

I have not digested all the information and lookd at the scenarios and probabilities....but what has stood out for RAM...is that post presentation....more analysts and investment houses seem to be buying...(cant tell if selling Polly).....som analysts quoted as saying...following presentation SNH is definately undervalued...looking at revenue mrgins and the quantum of malrepresentation being at about 385m. There is a sense that revenue were padded andnot completely falsified. There is also hope that snh is looking at a 3 year strategy to maximise value and have full debt settlement....this is a fantastic approach as the creditors need to consider a dawn out scramble for funds and a legal battle...which would probably take 3 years in which kore value gets eroded..considering the loans were bought at 30 to 50 percent disxount may mak complete sense to hold out. And lastly legal challange is a long battle...snh deflecting as much on to markus and those responsible...this could work to reduce the impact on snh. A likely settlement with veb may also be reahed after 3 years.....
If all coackroaches are out...impairments accounted for....revenue realised...turnarounds implemented...lega claims quantified...debt quanitified and restructured.....and regulatory support for continued trading....we are in a somwhat less unpredictable future.....perhaps we may see some confidence and value returned with the share at least rallying to r12 ....and in time..2020 being at r30...my guess is that snh will either diposeof assets following turnaround with mbo....or sellout to a big player......eitherway some reprieve....hence analysts may be seeimg some share opportunity....lots of information still to digest....and to think about a liquadation scenario...

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[Snippit]

The study reaches the start of the conclusion...

 

https://jsecharts.bl...ldings-snh.html

 

 

[Investment novice]

Lots and lots to dissect...high level ...lota of work beind the scenes done.
Trading update very promising....this company is working hard at every level...profitable yes....however due to impairments showing a tax loss....expected.....
I was very concerned when i initially saw the trading loss on news headlines...tinking this is the nail in th coffin..but going through presentation they cash flow positive and oprationally sound...its the secondary survival costs and impairments from pevious issues that have eaten up the profits....

Shooh...almost a heart attack...

Will review in detail....and look forward to your comments...

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[Dell]

presentation attached...

Attached Files

•  lenders-presentation-0518.pdf   912.04KB   11 downloads

[Shi]

Can you give us guys that do not have access to the presentation a bit more info? Your comment just wets the appetite.

 

The presentation is on the website (see SENS they just put out). Mattress Firm is being listed as a turnaround opportunity and needs funding. Lots of details in there.

 

I'm interested to hear what a certain someone has to say ;-)

Edited by Shi, 18 May 2018 - 03:51 PM.

[Ram85]

Lots of chew on in the presentation esp. Mattress Firm.

 

Can you give us guys that do not have access to the presentation a bit more info? Your comment just wets the appetite.

[Shi]

Lots of chew on in the presentation esp. Mattress Firm.

[Dusty Mountain]

Anybody know which media outlet will release news first on the lenders meeting today?

[Polly]

an interesting trend this morning...

 

I noticed lots of buying / selling almost 14 million of share in the first 2 hrs and thought ahh...just excitement, speculation...

but what got my attention is that almost 10 million from that is off the Frankfurt bourse and only 4 million SA. this is quite different to the trades in the past. seldom such a disparity??? not sure why more buying and selling relative to SA....could just be incidental ...and a red herring....

not sure if anyone noticed---word of caution this may be nothing if not a misdirection

 

changed above for you. 

[Investment novice]

an interesting trend this morning...

 

I noticed lots of buying almost 14 million of share in the first 2 hrs and thought ahh...just excitement, speculation...

but what got my attention is that almost 10 million from that is off the Frankfurt bourse and only 4 million SA. this is quite different to the trades in the past. seldom such a disparity??? not sure why more buying and selling relative to SA....could just be incidental ...and a red herring....

not sure if anyone noticed---word of caution this may be nothing if not a misdirection

[Bullhunter]

seeing the share tank must be the most painful experience for shareholders.

but then  there is the opportunity to get in cheap or reduce your average cost per share. and if there is a company recovery you get a cheap share and a rand hedge all for R1.60???

 

 

A classic case of 'catching a falling knife' and 'there is always more than one cockroach'!

Edited by Bullhunter, 18 May 2018 - 10:25 AM.

[Investment novice]

How saving
Steinhoff became
Heather Sonn's 14-
hour-a-day mission

 

Fin24

3 hours ago

 

will this be SA's new darling- finally a balanced article even though minimal in information- portrays the good the bad and the ugly.

 

perhaps we will get some more balanced journalism coming through next week if there is some resemblance of a recovery.

 

if this company turns around and makes money- I hope you pray for me...and if you lose more----please don't curse me...cause I will be right next to you in pain

[Investment novice]

Besides the shorters???

seeing the share tank must be the most painful experience for shareholders.

but then  there is the opportunity to get in cheap or reduce your average cost per share. and if there is a company recovery you get a cheap share and a rand hedge all for R1.60???

 

regarding a question yesterday on information from SNH following the lenders meeting- we should not expect a sens- if we get one fantastic- if not - there are multiple meetings around this ahead of finalisation. the lenders in any event would want surety and information disclosures for protection- since we expect that this is at least anther 7 months before wrapping up- can expect these conversations to go for that period of time before finalisation- however there may be certain disclosures made under the nda for the purposes of the meeting ?

snh will also be very wary about releasing information or presentations prematurely as this is usually negative on the fragile share which is very close to zero euro cents already. perhaps if there is a staggered update informing of the successful agreements  concluded- this would steadily drive confidence and share recovery......

[Dusty Mountain]

An earlier trade suspension may have protected the shareholders until investigations give greater clarity and financials were audited, who stands to gain from allowing the share to tank???

Besides the shorters???

[Dusty Mountain]

where did you get the trading suspension speculation from? there was mention in business insider - but that was a rehash - SNH advised in their trading update that they in contact with all parties and are not aware of any discussions of the sought. they confirmed that to me as well (my word is worthless here in any event)

 

An earlier trade suspension may have protected the shareholders until investigations give greater clarity and financials were audited, who stands to gain from allowing the share to tank???

[Dusty Mountain]

where did you get the trading suspension speculation from? there was mention in business insider - but that was a rehash - SNH advised in their trading update that they in contact with all parties and are not aware of any discussions of the sought. they confirmed that to me as well (my word is worthless here in any event)

 

https://www.business...ng-wound-2018-5

 

https://www.business...e-shares-2018-3

 

In my view the Frankfurt stock exchange may suspend at any time for a number of reasons specified in the Exchange Rules for the Frankfurt Stock Exchange of which Steinhoff in my view is in contravention of numerous of them... the fact that they have not decided to suspend already is food for thought...?

 

IMO if the bleeding cannot be stopped (waiting for lenders meeting consensus) it may be better to liquidate which will enforce a  trade suspension, hope I am wrong.

[Investment novice]

@leo Remember the "conservative R40" was with Jooste's dodginess... so the actual share price value before the crash should maybe have been R30ish. 

 

 

Been follow the comments for a while. So, my high level take.

Lets take a conservative R40 per share before the crash. @ 4.3b issues shares = R172b @ 15 to the Euro= c. €11.5b equity value, ie debt include. Less the dodge €7b assets. Then you at €4.5b equity value. @ 15 = R67.5B. ÷ by 4.3b issued shares = c. R15 per share. This is before any debt conversion to equity. Ie dilution. So maybe R10 bucks. And that's a good scenario.

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if R10 is a good scenario---R7 plausible- wait for R3-R4 and get in ....???

[Investment novice]

On the speculation of a trading suspension, I have sold out (took a bit of a knock) and will revisit once suspension is off the table... hoping it all pans out positively.

where did you get the trading suspension speculation from? there was mention in business insider - but that was a rehash - SNH advised in their trading update that they in contact with all parties and are not aware of any discussions of the sought. they confirmed that to me as well (my word is worthless here in any event)

[Ram85]

Been follow the comments for a while. So, my high level take.

Lets take a conservative R40 per share before the crash. @ 4.3b issues shares = R172b @ 15 to the Euro= c. €11.5b equity value, ie debt include. Less the dodge €7b assets. Then you at €4.5b equity value. @ 15 = R67.5B. ÷ by 4.3b issued shares = c. R15 per share. This is before any debt conversion to equity. Ie dilution. So maybe R10 bucks. And that's a good scenario.

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@leo Remember the "conservative R40" was with Jooste's dodginess... so the actual share price value before the crash should maybe have been R30ish.