264 replies to this topic

[SoleTrader]

Share suspended in Aus pending a news release.  I just took some on the JSE where its still merrily trading

[SoleTrader]

Nice bounce is Aussie this morning - trading at 275c equivalent. 

[sommerso]

From the 6 month reports. To an earlier comment about the Namibia mines. 

 

Disposal of Lithium Africa no. 1 Pty Ltd (LA1) On 5 July 2017, Tawana and the former shareholders of Lithium Africa no. 1 Pty Ltd signed an agreement whereby Tawana sold the holding company that held the rights to the Uis stockpiles back to the original vendors for $1.

 

 

[Dusty Mountain]

Also asked admin if JSE shares were convertible to ASX and vice versa?

[Dusty Mountain]

We still don`t know who the big holders are of the JSE shares...?

 

Which would partially explain the lack of volumes, maybe the institutional investors are holding until production gets under way???

 

I sent a request through to Tawana admin for the explanation of their share split/dual listing/cross listing,also asking whether there top shareholders listed own shares on ASX only or Jse as well?

 

Still waiting for reply after a week...

[sommerso]

Volumes! 

 

They had 5 million shares trade. Something big is up and coming. Their big price changes normally indicate some form of news is coming. If only we can see a tenth of those trades. JSE average for last 10 days is 41 000 shares per day. Only helped by the 153k on Thursday otherwise it was bleaker at 29k shares per day. 

 

Not being negative or anything. Just keeping my expectations in check. Still is a good time to accumulate before the runs start in about 6 months. If only the capital was there  

[SoleTrader]

A big technical break to the upside in the Aussie price - closed at 24.5 AUc. 

 

 

[sommerso]

Someone did some nice accumulation today. 150k volume and price was kept to below 250 for the buys. Well done!  

[SoleTrader]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read somewhere they sold the Nam operations? 

 

 

All you mention is true. I'm just being impatient.

http://www.proactive...ibia-71181.html

 

From what i read they bought the Nam asset last year.  I know its hellavu frustrating if the large resources are running and the smaller ones just standing deadstill! 

[sommerso]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read somewhere they sold the Nam operations? 

 

 

All you mention is true. I'm just being impatient.

 

 

[SoleTrader]

Next set of reports should be out in September if I'm correct?

 

Nice to see we are holding above R2.50. Not going into would'ves and could'ves. Just wondering if you all still feeling the potential of this share? 

I sold a lot of shares all the way up to 450c.  Been buying them all back at 250c. My views

1. They have only estimated 20% of their reserves, so 80% outstanding.  This should extend the life of mine. 

2. You are getting the Namibian mineral resource for free

3. They have secured a fixed selling price for their lithium, which should derisk the operation

4.  The mineral is in a strong bullmarket - i dont see this changing as battery technology is here to stay

[sommerso]

Next set of reports should be out in September if I'm correct?

 

Nice to see we are holding above R2.50. Not going into would'ves and could'ves. Just wondering if you all still feeling the potential of this share? 

 

 

[Dusty Mountain]

Shot

[sommerso]

Anyone know what the share float of tawana is on JSE and ASX?

 

Hopefully you can find some info on here

 

https://www.investin...s-nl?cid=976487

[Dusty Mountain]

Anyone know what the share float of tawana is on JSE and ASX?

[sommerso]

Agreed, all very good and well. Still need to get this on the radar for South African investors? Only so much a share price can do at these volumes. Sadly. 

[Dusty Mountain]

Lotustpsll, who contributed this article to NextInsight, worked 32 years with a global banking group before he retired. He is vested in Tawana Resources.

 

The share price of Singapore listco Alliance Mineral Assets Limited (AMAL) dropped -- from 28.5 c to 25 c -- in the past week, probably due to reasons unrelated to the strong fundamentals of its business.

These very same fundamentals have buoyed the share price -- unchanged at 23 c -- of its 50-50 JV partner in the Bald Hill project, Australia listco Tawana Resources.

 

Here are several key investing points: 

♦ Crucial environmental permit obtained for Baldhill project

♦ Estimated Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield reflects a huge cash generative business model.

♦ Estimate reserve for Baldhill > 10 years

♦ Expect solid dividend pay-outs from both companies.

For AMAL, FCF may flow straight through (leading to high dividend payouts) as Bald Hill is the only project in its business. 
 

"Based on projected EBITDA and FCF, the investing case for both AMAL and Tawana (at current prices) is strong."
-- Lotustpsll (photo)

A portion of the FCF, however, may be retained at TAWANA for capex purposes for its other projects.

TAWANA also owns 100% of the Cowan project, hence it has a longer reserve life for its lithium deposits.

When the Bald Hill project takes off, there will be keen interest in the Cowan project which is sited close by.

The operating cost for the Cowan project could be low (land adjoining Baldhill) – given its access to Bald Hill’s plants

Significant institutional holding > 50% for TAW.  Directors hold about 6%. 

TAW recently did a share placement at AUD 25 c. Its share price will re-rate as more significant milestones are reached.

The first production shipment for Bald Hill project is expected in 1Q18. Volume of output should be comparable to Galaxy Resources’ Mt Cattlin project.

Risk to projections – projection errors, failure of Burwill to honour off-take contract, downturn in the market price of lithium, etc.

Lithium industry – Strengthening tailwinds with more countries joining in to reduce carbon footprint.

Conclusion – Based on projected EBITDA and FCF, the investing case for both AMAL and Tawana (at current prices) is strong. 

 

 

TAW

AMAL

EBITDA per share

0.1013

0.0998

Price/EBITDA

2.27

2.34

FCF per share

0.0918

0.09

FCF Yield

39.9 %

38.5 %

# EBITDA per share

0.0709

0.0698

#Price/EBITDA

3.24

3.35

# FCF Yield

27.9%

26.9 %

Notes:

Projections (in AUD) report by Canaccord Genuity on 26 July 2017: Annual EBITDA AUD 96m, FCF AUD 87m.

 

#  Sensitivity Analysis – assume 70% estimate compliance. The numbers still provide a credible investing thesis for both AMAL and Tawana. 

For Tawana, assume full conversion of share options.

Baldhill Project

Comparative Analysis - TAWANA vs AMAL

                                               

TAW

AMAL

Current Price                       

AUD 23c

SGD 25c

AUD/SGD 1.07   AUD 23.4 c

Issued Capital
 

442 m

481 m

Options (exercise price 35 – 30 AUD cts)
           

32m
 

 

Institutional 
Shareholding                    

> 50%

 

Balance Sheet

net cash

net cash

Funding                  

secured

secured

Auditor                              

Ernst & Young

Ernst & Young

 

[sommerso]

What would be nice is if we can stop that bot from downselling the stock. 

 

There has to be some legislative protection from such stock manipulations? 

[TheConflict]

Liquidity is actually picking up nicely...

 

See transaction snapshot attached.

Attached Files

•  TAW 31.07.17.JPG   95.29KB   6 downloads