1165 replies to this topic

[Midas1]

Kool

[Polly]

Hi P, sold mondi up 8 percent, probably premature but prefer to bank then watch shares go down again. On lookout for another cheapy but prefer top 40

well done...imo ul will be able it  back cheaper towards end of thsi week...

Edited by Polly, 29 January 2019 - 03:19 PM.

[Midas1]

Hi P, sold mondi up 8 percent, probably premature but prefer to bank then watch shares go down again. On lookout for another cheapy but prefer top 40

[Polly]

EOH back in die kak re escom!!!!

[leo]

Think if the 9 months delay is voted in favour, we should see a short favourable spike? For a long position that is.

Anyone....

[Midas1]

Hi..i think its going pop soon...no real grounds except lots reporting..its way undervalued and analysts say will go to about 52 us...just read they think people will start buying at about 39 us...thats 20 percent up on now..obviously opinion...lets see , either way think expected dividends 49 pence 4 x a year not shabby

[leo]

P

If Brexit is delayed by 9 months. I assume positive for BAT? Seems like Brexit though is not the only thing hammering this share.

[Midas1]

Thanks appreciated..bats news they all thinks potential but just opinion..altho they all say upside in time

[Polly]

H hope you day traders having good day...polly iyo do you think bats going rebound...the institute's say to about 52 usd...in time ?? Interested opinion please.? .trying decide what do with my shares but gut saying hold..and divi good

this stoch has fallen over 50% from its highs..unbelievable..

 

fall last few days has been more to do with stronger rand / pound exchange rate.

 

I honestly will be a buyer at these levlels long term..As you have not bough using cfds, i suggest hold on to them for long term...juicy divi

[Midas1]

H hope you day traders having good day...polly iyo do you think bats going rebound...the institute's say to about 52 usd...in time ?? Interested opinion please.? .trying decide what do with my shares but gut saying hold..and divi good

[Midas1]

According this these are educational games..
https://www.moneyweb...r-blockbusters/

[Midas1]

Hi..thanks appreciate all advise..im just investing and trading when viable at moment...most my shares in top 40...and balanced portfolio..if npn drops though going buy big chunk and have inbalanced portf..but thats my choice/risk ..have learnt huge amount last while and very interested so constantly watching Bloomberg cnn etc..find it all very interesting ..have good weekend

[Polly]

...those 2 releases they had just educational not their real moneyspinners..

incorrect..If you trading the alsi you need to know the nuts and bolts on how it works..If not dont trade it. Thats a separate discussion on its own

[Polly]

 

Hi p..altho i don't trade alsi had noticed close correlation npn and alsi...( exactly what my analysis proved)i dont think tc will permanently crash(  i didnt mean it that way but just tried to prove how reliant JSE is to TC which is not a good thing at all. Chinese keep on changing the goal posts and who knows the effect on TC if they do take some drastic changes like banning we chat...u never know)... but do think we in for dip..prior 14 feb my prediction...those 2 releases they had just educational not their real moneyspinners..but lets see...quick question " bhp or banks continue to hold as more upside Monday.." do u think more upside retailers on monday as well? ( rand continued to strenghten and if it does Monday why not..so watch rand at opening)Nb others reading p said be careful of the alsi beast....why would he say this if trying do some underhanded thing was saying get years experience before considering alsi ! ( alsi is unlike trading the s&p, dow ftse or any other index... it has too many external influences like ftse , fx, tc, price of metals, anc decison making etc etc. What im getting at is you cannot use any longer time frame than 1 hr to trade the alsi in my opinion unlike other futures contract which will show some trend .Alsi too many unknowns  in near future. Typical example on Friday..opened bullish towards 48000 and all thought 48500 on cards...then ftse moved lower and fx strenghtened and we went down for rest of day to 47700 until a late surge when US opened.. So 3 different outside variables hit us the same day.)

 

 

 

What im really getting at is if you trading the alsi u need to be iup on your game watching other markets,l fx , tc etc and not sole lying on your charts. So if you not really full time trading , you going to get whacked if you working elsewhere and trying to trade it purely  on technicals. In other words , alsi is purely a fundamental play rather than a tech one besides resistance and supports . I know i will get flack for this from MR u know who when he is on a high but i stick to my view and opinion. I have had countless arguments about thsi when lots of other traders and at the end of day i alwasy say show me the money trading the alsi...thats the proof.. They will say yes its the beast but wont admit why it is....When one share makes up 20% of the market weighing , you dont want to be on wrong side of that share, long or short...example friday tc up 4% but what happened to NPN??? Charst said 48500 on cards , even reading twitter alsi posters but Mr Market had other ideas.

[Polly]

Hi p..altho i don't trade alsi had noticed close correlation npn and alsi...( exactly what my analysis proved)i dont think tc will permanently crash(  i didnt mean it that way but just tried to prove how reliant JSE is to TC which is not a good thing at all. Chinese keep on changing the goal posts and who knows the effect on TC if they do take some drastic changes like banning we chat...u never know)... but do think we in for dip..prior 14 feb my prediction...those 2 releases they had just educational not their real moneyspinners..but lets see...quick question " bhp or banks continue to hold as more upside Monday.." do u think more upside retailers on monday as well? ( rand continued to strenghten and if it does Monday why not..so watch rand at opening)Nb others reading p said be careful of the alsi beast....why would he say this if trying do some underhanded thing was saying get years experience before considering alsi ! ( alsi is unlike trading the s&p, dow ftse or any other index... it has too many external influences like ftse , fx, tc, price of metals, anc decison making etc etc. What im getting at is you cannot use any longer time frame than 1 hr to trade the alsi in my opinion unlike other futures contract which will show some trend .Alsi too many unknowns  in near future. Typical example on Friday..opened bullish towards 48000 and all thought 48500 on cards...then ftse moved lower and fx strenghtened and we went down for rest of day to 47700 until a late surge when US opened.. So 3 different outside variables hit us the same day.)

[Midas1]

Hi p..altho i don't trade alsi had noticed close correlation npn and alsi...i dont think tc will permanently crash but do think we in for dip..prior 14 feb my prediction...those 2 releases they had just educational not their real moneyspinners..but lets see...quick question " bhp or banks continue to hold as more upside Monday.." do u think more upside retailers on monday as well? Nb others reading p said be careful of the alsi beast....why would he say this if trying do some underhanded thing was saying get years experience before considering alsi !

[Polly]

 

some people trading the alsi dont even know what are the top 40 constituents and their weightings

 

Here let me help you as of Thursday evening

 

 

Name

Anglo American                                  2621.310237

Sappi                                                   343.1104131

Anglo Gold                                        586.5567357

Aspen Pharmacare Hold                   471.835734

Mr Price                                     431.0505006

Foshni                                     322.8177597

Barclays Africa Group Ltd         1022.196783

BHP Billiton                                      4822.356596

British American Tobacco PLC          913.5020274

BIDCORP                                   763.1077281

Bidvest Group                                 557.3162443

Compagnie Financiere Richemont AG  4014.187047

Discovery Ltd                                 457.8563941

CLICKS                                      384.244192

Firstrand Limited                       1819.884357

Growthpoint Prop Ltd               589.0036057

Reinet                                     241.3897579

Investec Ltd                           218.4226977

Investec PLC                            474.0536779

Nep                                       332.0782953

NETCARE                               310.0442219

Redefine                             433.0369032

Tru                                             292.1827513

PSG                                             332.76711

Mondi Ltd                              321.2071048

Mondi Plc                             980.8583874

MTN Group                        1244.773636

Nedbank Group                    924.3947343

Naspers                                10633.32926

Old Mutual                          894.3931518

RMB HOLDINGS              510.2348603

Remgro                              875.5975345

LHC                                 309.2160341

Capitec                             502.4422622

Standard Bank Group         1976.281528

Spar                                    330.0653264

Shoprite                         720.3981612

Sanlam                            1203.278084

Sasol                                 1881.017726

Tiger Brands                      378.597222

Vodacom Group                636.8994246

Woolworths Holdings          395.7037903

 

 

         47473

 

 

 

How does this help if you not trading the alsi but trading cfds re LEO

 

watch for the smallest weightings....at moment TRU

 

at futures expiry normally 1st and /or 2nd and or 3rd lowest get kicked out and new entrants with higher weighing come in...Multichoice may be the new entrant..

 

once kicked out confirmed , traders need to re weight thier portfolio...means selling off tru  and buying new entrants....measn lekka short on those kicked out as supply exceeds demand..Hint..start watching tru from next month

[Polly]

some people trading the alsi dont even know what are the top 40 constituents and their weightings

 

Here let me help you as of Thursday evening

 

 

Name

Anglo American                                  2621.310237

Sappi                                                   343.1104131

Anglo Gold                                        586.5567357

Aspen Pharmacare Hold                   471.835734

Mr Price                                     431.0505006

Foshni                                     322.8177597

Barclays Africa Group Ltd         1022.196783

BHP Billiton                                      4822.356596

British American Tobacco PLC          913.5020274

BIDCORP                                   763.1077281

Bidvest Group                                 557.3162443

Compagnie Financiere Richemont AG  4014.187047

Discovery Ltd                                 457.8563941

CLICKS                                      384.244192

Firstrand Limited                       1819.884357

Growthpoint Prop Ltd               589.0036057

Reinet                                     241.3897579

Investec Ltd                           218.4226977

Investec PLC                            474.0536779

Nep                                       332.0782953

NETCARE                               310.0442219

Redefine                             433.0369032

Tru                                             292.1827513

PSG                                             332.76711

Mondi Ltd                              321.2071048

Mondi Plc                             980.8583874

MTN Group                        1244.773636

Nedbank Group                    924.3947343

Naspers                                10633.32926

Old Mutual                          894.3931518

RMB HOLDINGS              510.2348603

Remgro                              875.5975345

LHC                                 309.2160341

Capitec                             502.4422622

Standard Bank Group         1976.281528

Spar                                    330.0653264

Shoprite                         720.3981612

Sanlam                            1203.278084

Sasol                                 1881.017726

Tiger Brands                      378.597222

Vodacom Group                636.8994246

Woolworths Holdings          395.7037903

 

 

         47473

Edited by Polly, 26 January 2019 - 10:12 AM.

[Polly]

heres some interesting info on TOP 40 / Alsi

 

 

 

 npnalsi.PNG   277.24KB   0 downloads

 

 

 

chart is showing NPN together with Alsi.. cadlesticks npn and line chart alsi

 

NPN low of 30th October 2018 = R2362.66

 

Alsi low of 30th October 2018 =44756

 

Fridays close   NPN = R3028.06

Fridays close  Alsi    =  48177

 

means since Oct 30 low  NPN has gone up 28% and Alsi 7.6%

 

 

Here comes the interesting observation/punchline :

 

NPN contributes about 22% to the Alsi in its market weighing...

 

worked out that for every 1% move in NPN up, alsi should go up about +-106points

 

so since OCT 30 npn by going up 28% has contributed on its own 2968 points to alsi move..

 

so alsi low 44756 +  2968 = 47724

 

Currently alsi  f =48177  and cash excluding interest = 47927

 

 

47724  - 47927  = 203

 

Basically telling you npn has carried the full alsi increase from Oct 30 to now...on average rest of market has been absolutely flat....

Only one share carrying the whole JSE...shocking

 

If TC goes belly up the  JSE is finished and klaar

 

 

Believe it or not...

 

But no one else did this analysis.....

Edited by Polly, 26 January 2019 - 10:02 AM.

[Polly]

Thanks Midas. Appreciate the welcome.

Polly, what are your feelings on TBS. Enterprise back on shelves, and apart from the Class Action, everything points to a return to form?

From what I’ve heard, even should they lose the class action, they have insurance for that kind of thing.

Hi J..and welcome..

 

Thanks for info on SHP

 

TBS,,,,,

 

Firstly need to are you trading this share or long term investment?

 

If trading , need to plat I , II  , III , IV, V on my graph and then make a call that its going down...But for some unknown reason tomorrow i may change that EW call as alternative call   thats it going to go up when i see the market doing something else in the morning.

hehe hope that helps as share can go up or down....

 

 

Anyway back to serious business and i think you want to buy long term...

 

yesterday AVI results came out and bang worse then expected and price fell...So expect TBS in short term to also fall in sympathy with the general retail and food sector. IS TBS over hit or overdone with the with those listeriosis outbreak and claims... Could be  but markets dont like uncertainty so this share will continue with negative sentiment in short term.

 

had a quick look at charts and really doesnt excite me as yet.

 

In a range between 240 to 300 so if you want to go long term look at buy near bottom of range.. Above R300.00 i wont touch as long term investment as too rich